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Bloomberg Predicts EVs Cheaper than IC Engine Cars Within 10 Years (computerworld.com)

Lucas123 writes: With the price of lithium-ion batteries continuing to plummet, already dropping 65% since 2010, electric vehicles will become cheaper to own by the mid-2020s, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The report also forecasts that sales of EVs will hit 41 million by 2040, up from 462,000 in 2015. By 2040, EVs will make up 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales, even if the price of crude oil goes back up from $33 today to $70 in the future. The adoption of EVs will displace about 13 million barrels of oil per day by 2040, when the clean-energy cars represent about one-quarter of cars on the road.

10 of 266 comments (clear)

  1. Scary Lithium-Ion batteries! by dAzED1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Went to Catalina Island for a few days this week and on the way there, saw a sign that is repeated on this website: "Due to the lithium ion batteries Hoverboards are ILLEGAL to transport upon Catalina Express." Disregarding cameras, cell phones, watches, pacemakers, blah small electronics etc, anyone who has been to Catalina knows cars are scarce there (it's a 30 year waiting list to get a car permit) and everyone drives golf carts - which more and more use large lithium ion batteries now. I thought the sign to be really funny, yet sad (obviously). Hoverboards aren't banned because of the lithium-ion batteries, they're banned because they're 90degrees off and they're not hovering. Errr...they're banned because they were very cheaply manufactured, and have safety problems.

  2. Re:Peak battery by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Ummm the Lithium is recycled. It comes down to the economics between cost of cycling compared to cost of getting it out of the ground.

    Tesla seem adamant that recycling will end up cheaper source of lithium than mining will.

    Also Lithium isn't the cost inhibitor and never has been. Lithium has gotten way more expensive in recent years, while lithium batteries have dropped massively in price. The lithium itself is a very minor part of the cost.

    There are only 10kg of lithium in a big car battery, there are 22 million kg's of known lithium reserves. I doupt there will be a problem with lithium shortage for a long time.

  3. Already cheaper, if you like fast cars. . . by Idou · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The Nissan Leaf is one of the cheapest cars you can get that can blow away most other cars when accelerating from 0 to "legal in-town speed."

    If your commute involves stop lights and changing lanes, it is super fun to drive and a bargain. The general public still seems oblivious to its acceleration, which adds to the fun when you quietly blow past them when they try to cut you off in a "funny looking car" (while their ICE wails in futile protest. . .)

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  4. Re: Will EVs be popular in 10 years? by mspohr · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I've taken a few multi thousand mile trips in my Tesla at a total cost of $4 for electricity. Are you telling me that this was all a dream and the thousands of worldwide Supercharger stations don't exist?

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  5. Re: Will EVs be popular in 10 years? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I've taken a few multi thousand mile trips in my Tesla at a total cost of $4 for electricity. Are you telling me that this was all a dream and the thousands of worldwide Supercharger stations don't exist?

    It's more dream then reality. You are ignoring one, very important point: Most EV's can't use that Supercharger network

  6. Re:Peak battery by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Maths fail.

    The Panasonic cells used in Tesla batteries are rated for 3000 cycles (80% capacity remaining). A full charge gives you 300 miles range. 3000x300 = 900,000 miles, or about 3x what a modern petrol engine can do before it needs replacing.

    Tesla have actually tested up to 750,000 miles with 86% capacity remaining, as you would expect based on the maths. Similarly, taxi companies running Nissan Leafs at 150,000 miles are seeing >90% capacity remaining, as expected.

    Chances are that most EV batteries will outlast the car by a long way, and find use as home backup/solar smoothing packs or replacements in other vehicles. Eventually they will be recycled, because they are very recyclable.

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  7. Re:Li-On batteries by Sique · · Score: 2, Interesting
    It's not that the Saudi Oil would be cheap because the infrastructure is already in place. It's because you don't need much infrastructure at all to get it. The cost to get one barrel of crude ready for shipping in Saudi Arabia is about $3. Texan oil from oil wells cost about $16, shale oil and oil from oil sands about $60.

    Saudi Arabia thus has complete control about the oil price because they can sell at prices that would bankrupt everyone else and still make a profit. And Saudi Arabia waited long enough for enough companies to invest much money into shale oil and only then lowered the oil price to drive them out of competition when much of the money was burnt, but not much revenue yet generated. Investors for the next future will be very wary to ever invest in alternative oil sources again.

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  8. Re:what point? Libertarians vote fasist by L.+J.+Beauregard · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You Hundred Percent Red Blood Americans have an entire cable news network dedicated to spreading your bullshit, and here you are upset about a few mouthy "SJWs"? How about you turn off Fox Propaganda and listen to what some actual "SJWs" have to say, instead of what Fox Propaganda says about them.

    being told that the core tenants [sic] that America was founded on, that if you work hard, study, and better yourself you can get ahead, is total bullshit

    One, it *is* bullshit. If hard work got you ahead, then everyone who toils behind a McDonald's counter would be a millionaire. And these days, studying and bettering yourself may only get you four years older and deeper in debt, assuming you can find the time after working two jobs for bullshit pay. Donald Trump got four bankruptcies. Many a former student would like just one.

    Two, they're *tenets*, unless they're paying rent. And if you have to call something a tenet, it's probably bullshit.

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  9. Re: Li-On batteries by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Class D fire extinguishers are holy shit toxic and very expensive.

    So are standard hydrocarbon extinguishing foams. The ones that work anyway. The synthetic shit can't handle any level of alcohol including the 10% ethanol in your fuel tank.

  10. Re: Li-On batteries by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Interesting

    They're relatively easy to put out - just need to throw foam at it.

    I see you've never put out a car fire before. The wonderful thing about car fires is that a car is a very three dimensional object. Foam's use case is to smother a fire and prevent oxygen which makes a car pretty much the worst case scenario for a foam extinguisher. Also given the length of time and amount of foam a typical extinguisher can expel you're left with only one choice in a fully engulfed car fire scenario: Call the fire brigade and have them bring foam injecting branches and them cover the car in a metric shitton of foam. Real bonus points if the mag wheels catch fire in the process.

    The idea that a lithium battery with it's VERY limited amount of fuel is harder to put out than the petrol car fire is absurd. Lithium actually has the nice benefit that by the time the fire department shows up they can just put water on it. It burns very bloody quickly and while a litre of fuel in a softdrink bottle can burn for a good hour a lithium battery pack the same size will vapourise itself within a minute or two.

    Oh and lithium can be put out with Class-D, but it has the same problem in a car as foam does. It doesn't work very well on 3D surfaces, and doesn't provide any cooling so fires will re-ignite themselves after you put them out when they come in contact with air again.