Bloomberg Predicts EVs Cheaper than IC Engine Cars Within 10 Years (computerworld.com)

Lucas123 writes: With the price of lithium-ion batteries continuing to plummet, already dropping 65% since 2010, electric vehicles will become cheaper to own by the mid-2020s, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The report also forecasts that sales of EVs will hit 41 million by 2040, up from 462,000 in 2015. By 2040, EVs will make up 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales, even if the price of crude oil goes back up from $33 today to $70 in the future. The adoption of EVs will displace about 13 million barrels of oil per day by 2040, when the clean-energy cars represent about one-quarter of cars on the road.

Comments

Re:Peak battery

[Anonymous Coward]

Ummm the Lithium is recycled. It comes down to the economics between cost of cycling compared to cost of getting it out of the ground.

Tesla seem adamant that recycling will end up cheaper source of lithium than mining will.

Also Lithium isn't the cost inhibitor and never has been. Lithium has gotten way more expensive in recent years, while lithium batteries have dropped massively in price. The lithium itself is a very minor part of the cost.

There are only 10kg of lithium in a big car battery, there are 22 million kg's of known lithium reserves. I doupt there will be a problem with lithium shortage for a long time.

Already cheaper, if you like fast cars. . .

[Idou]

The Nissan Leaf is one of the cheapest cars you can get that can blow away most other cars when accelerating from 0 to "legal in-town speed."

If your commute involves stop lights and changing lanes, it is super fun to drive and a bargain. The general public still seems oblivious to its acceleration, which adds to the fun when you quietly blow past them when they try to cut you off in a "funny looking car" (while their ICE wails in futile protest. . .)

Re:Peak battery

[AmiMoJo]

Maths fail.

The Panasonic cells used in Tesla batteries are rated for 3000 cycles (80% capacity remaining). A full charge gives you 300 miles range. 3000x300 = 900,000 miles, or about 3x what a modern petrol engine can do before it needs replacing.

Tesla have actually tested up to 750,000 miles with 86% capacity remaining, as you would expect based on the maths. Similarly, taxi companies running Nissan Leafs at 150,000 miles are seeing >90% capacity remaining, as expected.

Chances are that most EV batteries will outlast the car by a long way, and find use as home backup/solar smoothing packs or replacements in other vehicles. Eventually they will be recycled, because they are very recyclable.