Autonomous Cars Could Be Worse For Carbon Emissions

HughPickens.com writes: David Roberts writes at VOX that it stands to reason that vehicle automation could save energy and reduce emissions in some ways. Cars will be able to chain together more aerodynamically, drive at more consistent speeds, and perhaps serve as shared vehicles in lieu of individual vehicle ownership. But it also stands to reason that automation could increase energy use and emissions in some ways. If driving is easier and more pleasant, people will do it more. Automation will open up car travel to populations (the young, the elderly, the visually or otherwise impaired) who did not previously have access. Self-driving cars could increase the overall amount of vehicle miles traveled. (Read more, below.) Hugh Pickens continues: A new study: "Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles," suggests that the big swing factor is travel cost reduction — in other words, how cheap and easy driving gets. If that stays at the low end, then the effects of self-driving cars on energy use are almost certain to be a substantial net positive. However if it reaches the high end, a 60 percent boost in energy consumption for transportation, all the energy-saving benefits could be wiped out, for a net increase in energy and emissions. "This leads to somewhat surprising policy implications It may be that the socially optimal outcome, at least for now, is partial, not full, automation. That way the energy and emissions benefits of smarter driving practices can be fully captured, without allowing drivers to tune entirely out — without making it too easy," concludes Roberts. "Perhaps when we get farther down the road (ahem) — when more vehicles are electrified, when car sharing is more firmly established, when the benefits of automation have proven out — we can move to full automation without the risk of carbon blowback."

Comments

Re:What about this....

[slew]

Let's say 1 million people die or are maimed all over the world thanks to human driven cars. How much "carbon emissions" will be caused by all the
funerals, ambulance trips, etc. this entails? Couldn't we say autonomous cars will "save" on "carbon emissions" due to avoiding 1 million
such experiences?

Don't let this click bait headline fool you.

Just my $0.02.

On the flip side if we didn't eliminate 1 million people from the *future* driving pool by killing or maiming them with human driven cars, couldn't we say that by the impact of their collective future driving trips, autonomous cars (by sparing lives) will cause more emissions in the future?

Think of it kind of like why we have a hunting season for deer. Since humans have eliminated many of the predators at the top of the food chain, if we don't cull the herd, the deer often face a future of starvation (e.g., they use more resources than the environment can support).

Although we could potentially limit driving more humanly by say a lottery for people that are allowed to drive rather than simply off-ing a million folks (then again, in most states there is a lottery for deer hunting licenses, so maybe it's not totally different). They already do something like a lottery in many congested cities like Mexico City (odd-even), Beijing (mod 5), and New Delhi (even-odd).

Re:NO WORRIES

[GreatDrok]

"ICE engines are amazing now with computer control. I have no desire to stop shifting mine. :)"

I've been driving cars for 35 years, mostly manuals, mostly petrol although I did own a 6 speed diesel once. I've taken petrol engines completely apart and rebuilt them. You could say I'm a bit of a petrol head. And yet, last year I took a test drive in a Nissan Leaf which is frankly a pretty cheap little car. That thing runs like it is a Rolls Royce. Incredibly smooth, with a really sudden and direct throttle with no lag whatsoever. Sure, the range isn't great but It took a look at my current petrol car and I only do mostly short journeys well within the range of the Leaf and if I need to go further I can always rent. I was convinced and I've bought a brand new Leaf. Petrol cars and the ICE are dinosaurs. They're slow, unresponsive and wasteful. Even the whole range and fuel thing is a non-issue for the vast majority of users because, while most people think they need to be able to drive 300 miles all the time, they don't. I fill my car up once a month and I do around 300 miles a month in it. That means each week I do about the range of the Leaf and the Leaf is always fully charged and ready to go. Plus, I have rooftop solar so the usual argument that I'm just moving the pollution to the power station doesn't hold because my car is going to use 100% renewable fuel. I've switched power companies to a carbon zero supplier that buys my excess power and also has a good plan for people with solar and EVs. This is the future. The ICE has had its day. It was fun, but oily and dirty and I'm happy to move on.