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There's No End In Sight For Data Storage Capacity (computerworld.com)

Lucas123 writes: Several key technologies are coming to market in the next three years that will ensure data storage will not only keep up with but exceed demand. Heat-assisted magnetic recording and bit-patterned media promise to increase hard drive capacity initially by 40% and later by 10-fold, or as Seagate's marketing proclaims: 20TB hard drives by 2020. At the same time, resistive RAM technologies, such as Intel/Micron's 3D XPoint, promise storage-class memory that's 1,000 times faster and more resilient than today's NAND flash, but it will be expensive — at first. Meanwhile, NAND flash makers have created roadmaps for 3D NAND technology that will grow to more than 100 layers in the next two to three generations, increasing performance and capacity while ultimately lowering costs to that of hard drives."Very soon flash will be cheaper than rotating media," said Siva Sivaram, executive vice president of memory at SanDisk.

107 comments

  1. Reliability? by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'll generally take reliability over volume. I wish they'd work on that more.

    1. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Found this new technology that promises to aggregate disks and clouds to create a virtual and reliable storage pool: http://infinit.sh./ Haven't tried it yet though. If someone has, it would be interesting to get feedback...

    2. Re:Reliability? by Distan · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The big purchasers of storage want the opposite. They prefer cheap capacity over reliability. All their data is replicated multiple time so losing a storage device is nothing to them, the data just auto-replicates to other devices.

    3. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So far I've deployed over 10 of the Intel 750 NVMe SSDs in hypervisors with great success, maybe 60 other Samsung 850 SSDs in other servers and I've had 2 of the Samsung 850 drives fail in 2 years, otherwise great success compared to traditional spinning media.

      I look forward to improved size and reliability of these next generation SSDs to reduce the probability of random failures and make EOL drives a more predictable process. Of course SSDs still have a chance of random failure however its far lower than the chance of a spinning disk failure.

    4. Re:Reliability? by knightghost · · Score: 1, Interesting

      It doesn't seem like you're counting bit rot in your failures.

    5. Re:Reliability? by known_coward_69 · · Score: 1

      hard drives have never been very reliable either and people still bought them

    6. Re:Reliability? by Coren22 · · Score: 0

      So you prefer SSD than? SSD reliability already far outstrips spinning disks, so you should be happy with the move to solid state.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    7. Re:Reliability? by JohnStock · · Score: 1

      Why, this isn't 2010.

    8. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who doesn't want to play with neodimium magnets

    9. Re:Reliability? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1, Funny

      If your bits are rotting, maybe you should be monitoring your humidity levels.

    10. Re: Reliability? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 3, Informative

      Don't we all have cron jobs to scrub our zpools?

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    11. Re:Reliability? by YouGotTobeKidding · · Score: 1

      Considering enterprise grade SSDs (and the 750 is Ent grade...just one that is sold as a workstation / prosumer models) have multiple layers of ECC and controller level monitoring and 'wear levelling' that moves the bits around... bit-rot is a non-issue. Bit rot is for off-line storage not ON-line storage.

    12. Re:Reliability? by AnotherBlackHat · · Score: 1

      If you believe the hype, 3D Xpoint nvram will be more reliable than either NAND or spinning rust.
      And (again, if you believe the hype) it will continue to get cheaper and cheaper, while NAND won't.

    13. Re:Reliability? by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      Or check for fungus. Dry rot is a pain.

    14. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      Bull.

      SSD's reliability, from experience, is less than half, maybe barely even a quarter of that than spinning drives in enterprise use.

      SSD's are only "reliable" from a end-user desktop/notebook where they have 50% of the space free most of the time. In enterprise use, they are often in RAID arrays themselves, and what happens when you near the capacity of a drive? the data gets put onto another drive, so changes to that first drive run out of useable spare flash blocks.

      Spinning drives can be used in any RAID configuration. SSD's can only be used as Raid 1 or Raid 5, but are more ideally suited for ZFS Raid JBOD pools. If being used as part of a RAID 1 set, the drives have to have identical performance characteristics, which often means using exactly the same drives from the same factory production set, which means if that set is bad, you lose the entire array. With mechanical drives, that also tends to happen (and has.) Ultimately SSD's performance over time is unreliable to use in a RAID set and are only useful in a ZFS JBOD pool setup with multiple redundancy.

    15. Re:Reliability? by tnk1 · · Score: 2

      Agreed. Since they are required to replicate data to ensure high availability anyway, the major cost is not the quality of the medium, but rather the costs of raw storage. For quality considerations to overcome capacity, they would need a medium that is utterly reliable, which is a very, very hard thing to prove. That means that dropping quality by some low percentage, if it reduces the price of storage appreciably, is an acceptable trade off.

      As an individual, we do not expect to buy a lot of storage, and sometimes we accept only one drive to store our material. For many, if not most individuals, quality would be priceless because we aren't going to necessarily want to create a RAID array of our disks. Providers of storage and cloud services have not choice. RAID is already expected, so they might as well let the price and quality drop. After all, the worst that happens is that you use the RAID capabilities more often, instead of having a RAID setup which is never used because the disks are extremely reliable.

    16. Re:Reliability? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      I'll generally take reliability over volume. I wish they'd work on that more.

      Not just reliability, but archival (write-once) media that are reliable for very long periods of time.

    17. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We scrub drives to check for that.

      Also sand box restoring is useful to validate/consistency check databases

    18. Re:Reliability? by PCM2 · · Score: 1

      For many, if not most individuals, quality would be priceless because we aren't going to necessarily want to create a RAID array of our disks.

      Not this individual. My use case is different than yours, I guess. The amount of data I actually generate myself is miniscule. If I need big drives at all, it's to fill them up with media of various kinds. Since almost all of it would be trivial to re-acquire (re-rip from the original media, etc) I'd hardly shed any tears if my one, non-redundant drive went south. Storage, for me, simply isn't "mission critical."

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
    19. Re:Reliability? by wolrahnaes · · Score: 1

      I'm with you on this one. My home server has around 8TB of data on it and out of that probably 7.5TB is videos/music/games that I can redownload or rerip as necessary if I lose them.

      I use a manual system, personally. /home is on a RAID1. /mnt/media is a JBOD pool. Everything easily replaced goes in /mnt/media, everything important goes in /home/$user which is also backed up. /mnt/media just gets a file listing taken every night so if it blows up I know what I lost.

      --
      I used to get high on life, but I developed a tolerance. Now I need something stronger.
    20. Re:Reliability? by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Fork out for the Enterprise drives. Then you will see what it costs. I infact do fork out for enterprise drives for my backups. I have 2x4T and 2x2T dirves. they are quite a bit more expensive.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    21. Re:Reliability? by mcrbids · · Score: 1

      If you value reliability, you want ZFS and RAIDZ.

      --
      I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
    22. Re:Reliability? by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      It's partly because they never had a choice, or didn't understand how unreliable typical drives are/were.

      Selling a more reliable drive at a bit more cost will not be given much attention UNLESS one first knows how unreliable typical drives are. Most consumers don't know.

      Note that I found RAID to often not be helpful, because if the OS gets hosed, which is common with Windows, the RAID won't work right either. Perhaps with enough expertise on configuring one can avoid that, but that's beyond the consumer level.

      The system would probably have to split data from OS to do it right, but MS would resist that because it severs the dependence they want you to have on Windows and Windows conventions.

    23. Re:Reliability? by gargalatas · · Score: 1

      Reliability on HDDs is tricky! Can you rely on an HDD or SSD like you rely your fridge or the toaster? They can live from 20 years to 1 month! It's electronics! An when they are not, they are mechanical. Even worse! Consider your phone. Do you know many phone's memories that fail? Have you seen many of them? No. So NAND is pretty much reliable. BUT even then they break sometimes! RAID solutions and backing up will always be no 1 priority for safe data storage.

    24. Re:Reliability? by harrkev · · Score: 4, Insightful

      My home server has around 8TB of data on it and out of that probably 7.5TB is videos/music/games that I can redownload or rerip as necessary if I lose them.

      So, the time required to feed optical discs into a computer and/or browse web pages to get downloads is worthless? Some of us value our time, and don't seem to have enough of it.

      --
      "-1 Troll" is the apparently the same as "-1 I disagree with you."
    25. Re:Reliability? by Mr.+Competence · · Score: 1

      Archival Blu-rays Disclaimer - I know the patent holders.

      --
      Those who open their minds too far often let their brains fall out.
    26. Re:Reliability? by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      Redundancy is better than reliability, and low cost-per GB means redundancy is easily affordable. Because no matter how much you spend on a drive, you're never going to hit 100% reliability, which means that you still have to do everything you're going right now in order to protect your data, with multiple levels of backup plus RAID if you need high availability. Cheap per-GB costs means you can build in all the reliability you want into a system yourself, and it's probably going to ultimately be cheaper than if manufacturers tried to build that reliability into the HD itself.

      What's really great is that this flexibility allows you to choose the level of redundancy that's right for your data. I've got a local media server NAS with a bunch of my ripped DVDs and Blu-rays. These only have the protection of RAID, since while I'd be sad if I lost them, I could theoretically always re-rip from the original discs. However, my more critical documents are automatically backed up in several locations, including offsite, since I absolutely can't afford to lose that data.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    27. Re:Reliability? by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      I use btrfs. It's still not faced the sort of testing that enterprise users would want, but I've put it through some pretty horrific abuses and it's came out almost undamaged, including a really awful hard drive that was randomly and silently dropping writes when under heavy load. Thank you, Seagate.

    28. Re:Reliability? by greenfruitsalad · · Score: 1

      i have a rack at the end of a hot aisle with a sliding door attached to it. so every time somebody wants to enter the hot aisle, they slide the door open and let it roll back behind them. and that means vibrations. when i replaced rotational hard disks with SSDs, i went from cca 30% disk failure rate within first 18 months to 3%. to me, SSDs are a Godsend.

      for anyone who wants to know, the failing disks were SATA WD RE2/3/4. Seagate Constellation ES.2/3 had failure rate of about 5%. None of my SAS disks seemed affected; i guess they really are better made.

    29. Re:Reliability? by greenfruitsalad · · Score: 1

      even if that were true (it isn't), the advantages of SSDs far outweigh their disadvantages. to get the throughput and iops i can reach with SSDs, i wouldn't be able to get with SAS disks for 3x the cost.

    30. Re:Reliability? by greenfruitsalad · · Score: 1

      have you seen an enterprise setup built in the last 5 years that used raidz instead of mirrors?

    31. Re:Reliability? by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      I'll generally take reliability over volume. I wish they'd work on that more.

      Why? As someone who has gone through some 30 HDDs over the year who's never lost any data in failures I have to ask: what are you doing wrong?

    32. Re: Reliability? by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Zpool? Is that related to that "illegal" filesystem in Linux? :-)

    33. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For many, if not most individuals, quality would be priceless because we aren't going to necessarily want to create a RAID array of our disks.

      RAID doesn't ensure data integrity. RAID provides the possibility to hotswap disks in the event of a single disk failure. If you are running a server that needs the uptime you use RAID on top of the backup, otherwise you just use backup.
      The backup also protects you from user induced data loss and filesystem errors.
      If you place the backup-disk in another computer or disconnect it when you aren't doing backup it will protect it from the failure that killed the primary disk. (If a transient voltage kills the first disk in the RAID it will most likely kill the second one too. For a mechanical drive a minor earthquake or other sudden movement while spinning could kill your disks.)
      Ideally you should have an off-site backup to make sure that fires or burglary doesn't lead to data loss.
      An external drive with your important data stored at a family members place is probably the best bet.

    34. Re: Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No.
      The licensing might be incompatible with distribution of GNU/Linux but not with Linux.
      That is the problem with licenses that limits how a software can be distributed. If more than one software does it then there is a risk of situations where the combination can't be distributed together.
      That isn't really an issue if the end user is willing to get the software from multiple sources and put together things himself.

    35. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SSD's are only "reliable" from a end-user desktop/notebook where they have 50% of the space free most of the time.

      Spinning disks are great in a desktop, they don't survive in a notebook unless it is stationary while powered up.
      If you intend to ever have your computer in your lap or move it while it is powered on then anything but a spinning disk should be chosen.

      Well, in my experience the powered on isn't a requirement. I've noticed that spinning disks in computers that I move around a lot (Always powered off in those cases.) tend to die on me unexpectedly and with a higher frequency than stationary disks.
      Granted that particular is anecdotal, but it has made me to permanently switch to SSD in those computers. The only one that still has a few spinning in it is my gaming-rig. Still have the system on SSD.

    36. Re:Reliability? by greenfruitsalad · · Score: 1

      my favourite side effect of ext4 is spinning laptop disks up every couple of seconds. i.e. disk wants to go into standby as APM commands, but jbd2 spins it up almost immediately. this way you end up with load_cycle_count increasing by thousands every day. death to all rotational media!

    37. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's just a shame the cost of Blu-Ray makes it a non starter for archive duties - despite it being the perfect medium !

      Where I live (the UK) a 100Gb blank Blu- Ray disk costs more than a 2Tb hard drive.

      Once again great technology killed by the industry over fears of "piracy".... Ho hum...

    38. Re:Reliability? by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      So, your single point of data is more important than tests that have actually been run?

      http://techreport.com/review/2...

      I would love to see the spinning disk that can handle 2.1 petabytes being written to it. But of course you have run the thousands of tests for years on end needed to identify the unreliability of SSDs vs HDD.

      http://www.tomshardware.com/re...

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    39. Re:Reliability? by wolrahnaes · · Score: 1

      So, the time required to feed optical discs into a computer and/or browse web pages to get downloads is worthless? Some of us value our time, and don't seem to have enough of it.

      A valid point, but I have automation already set up to handle things for me. Sonarr handles my TV library, Couch Potato does the same for movies. As long as I don't lose their databases (which are small and easy to back up) I can restore my TV and movie collections basically at the push of a button. Those programs will then go out and light up my internet connection for a few days and the missing parts will (mostly) reappear. My music collection is synced to Google. The majority of the rest is cached Steam data, which will reload the next time someone downloads that game.

      Honestly I said rip more out of habit than anything. I used to rip all my DVDs myself even if I had access to a pirate release because in the DVD>Xvid era the "scene" standards had a lot of bits that were only relevant to compatibility with obscure hardware playback devices. Since I was only watching things on my computer or using an Xbox running XBMC to put it on my TV playing off a network share I could do basically anything. Increase the bitrate, change the container, change the codec entirely, keep only the audio and subtitle tracks I care about, etc. I did put a lot of time in to that and if I still bothered with it I'd probably care a lot more about my movie folder.

      The thing is with DVD I was able to build a workflow and find nice open source tools I liked for every step of the process, and with that I knew I could rip any DVD I got my hands on. With Blu-Ray at least the last time I looked it was still an ongoing battle between the rippers and the DRM vendors where you had to actively keep up to be able to rip new releases. That's just not worth the time to me. Instead of ripping my Blu-Rays now I usually queue up the download from my phone while I'm in the checkout line. There are quite a few cases in my shelf that have never once been opened.

      Blu-Ray's DRM definitely hasn't stopped pirates, but it's made it a real pain in the ass to casually rip your own legally obtained content. It's easier for me to pirate a copy of something I own than to rip it myself so I can use it with my nice convenient HTPC setup instead of having to deal with physical media.

      --
      I used to get high on life, but I developed a tolerance. Now I need something stronger.
    40. Re:Reliability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Meh, yes/no kinda. In 90% of cases where you are just doing RAID1 or RAID10 in a TeraTrend case, NAS drives are the best choice. That's fine for nearline backups where you are writing to the disk once per day (or maybe once every hour or every few hours).

      For offsite backups, any 2.5" 2TB USB 3.0 drive will do. Just make sure you encrypt it with LUKS for protection. If your stuff won't fit within 2TB, well there are 4TB USB 3.0 drives out. Or you need to use better backup software (i.e. something that does compression and de-duplication like borg-backup). Have half a dozen USB drives and rotate them every few days to an offsite location. In the advent of natural disaster like a house fire, you're not going to care that the backup might be a few days or even a week old (if you do, then you need to setup a remote server somewhere).

    41. Re: Reliability? by Bengie · · Score: 1

      If I can't make a bootable ZFS volume from a bootdisk that I downloaded, it doesn't work.

    42. Re:Reliability? by Bengie · · Score: 1

      http://www.extremetech.com/ext... 13.8 billion year archive media with ultra-high densities.

  2. There's no end in sight for my... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First posts!

    1. Re:There's no end in sight for my... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or beginning, apparently.

  3. what is the point of streaming by known_coward_69 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    if i can simply carry around enough movies and music and TV to last me a few months to a year?

    1. Re:what is the point of streaming by Jherico · · Score: 1

      No matter how great your local storage is, you can't carry *all the media*, meaning that at some point you have to pick the subset of media you want and transfer it over the network. There's nothing wrong with that, but I suspect that for the vast majority of consumers being able to browse and choose content at the time of watching will always be more convenient than trying to anticipate everything you're going to want to watch.

      --

      Jherico

      What can the average user can do to ensure his security? "Nothing, you're screwed"

    2. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who want's to store all that stuff? I don't want to herd terabytes of stuff I won't watch more than once a decade. I hated shelves full of VHS tapes, I hate shelves full of DVD/Blu Ray disks and I hate having to worry about the condition and availability of volatile media to which I've ripped all sorts of stuff.

    3. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What, you don't value being constantly tethered to an unreliable or unportable internet connection while your viewing habits are sold to the highest bidder? You don't like your 1950's communications platform being used as a square-peg round-hole solution to transfer large sections of data? You sir are living in the past, and must secretly be a luddite.

    4. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the point of streaming is not having to wait for the download to finish. You can watch immediately.
      Storage capacity has little to do with it.

    5. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's what I was saying until the big hard drive crashed.
      I will not download again all that junk.

    6. Re:what is the point of streaming by known_coward_69 · · Score: 1

      netflix CDN's sync 5TB of data per night. if i have 20TB of storage at home that's more than enough data to keep everything local and not worry about my speed. netflix will go for it as well since they are still depreciating their OpenConnect servers and once that is done they would rather have people download data at off hours than buy expensive new equipment for tens of thousands of people to watch 4K at the same time. BingeOn is already about extending the life of their CDN servers by lowering the amount of bandwidth people use it's always about money

    7. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "what is the point of streaming"

      Many people don't want the burden of managing media and will pay for some other company to do it. If you think about it, those of us who have hordes of files end up paying for it in terms of many hard disks and time going over stuff we need to delete. The average person consumes stuff ephemerally and aren't quite the pack rats we are.

      Much stuff we store we never access again, it's that thought of maybe needing in the future or passing it on to a future generation is why we do it.

    8. Re:what is the point of streaming by AnotherBlackHat · · Score: 1

      No matter how great your local storage is, you can't carry *all the media*

      Maybe not, but eventually, you could carry all the media you own.
      I already do this for music.
      If Moore's law continues to hold, in 20 years I'll be able to do the same for Movies, TV, and Video.

      I'll still download new stuff.
      If you want to call playing something as it's downloading "streaming" then I suppose I'll do that too.

    9. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      - People's download capacity doesn't match their storage capacity.
      - People want to watch Netflix at the time the show is released, not after downloading it (most relevant for Netflix originals).
      - Netflix's library is considerably more than 5TB. On the order of 1000 times more, and generally growing.
      - People generally do not want to do a two-step process, where they first select a bunch of shows, then they wait for a long time (first-order estimate: it's a 2 hour movie, then clearly it can be streamed in no more than 2 hours, so you wait for 2 hours), then they can start binge-watching it. They will deal with two step processes only if it provides a very large advantage over the one step process.
      - People don't want to physically carry around tokens when they could just watch the media.
      - People often have more than one television, and often *don't* have the wherewithal to set up a local network server.

    10. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People's download capacity doesn't match their storage capacity.
       
      This doesn't really mean a lot in and of itself.
       
        People want to watch Netflix at the time the show is released, not after downloading it (most relevant for Netflix originals).
       
      Netflix could make it so it downloads in advance and is viewable at a distinct time. Steam does/did this.
       
        Netflix's library is considerably more than 5TB. On the order of 1000 times more, and generally growing.
       
      You're low ending it but closer... that's not hard since no one claimed that you could download all of Netflix on a 5TB drive. I sincerely don't understand what you're getting at here.
       
        People generally do not want to do a two-step process, where they first select a bunch of shows, then they wait for a long time (first-order estimate: it's a 2 hour movie, then clearly it can be streamed in no more than 2 hours, so you wait for 2 hours), then they can start binge-watching it. They will deal with two step processes only if it provides a very large advantage over the one step process.
       
      What's this "you wait 2 hours" nonsense? I downloaded a 2 hour movie in HD in about a half hour last night. You have a somewhat valid point if you had to 100% choose streaming or local storage but otherwise you could queue up what you wanted, start watching the first movie in about a half hour then just keep watching since you could download 4 movies while watching one.
       
        People don't want to physically carry around tokens when they could just watch the media.
       
      Tokens? What are you talking about?
       
        People often have more than one television, and often *don't* have the wherewithal to set up a local network server.
       
      "Whole home DVR", brother. Look into it.

    11. Re:what is the point of streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You, sir, are living in the past, and must secretly be a luddite.

      FTFY. (Added missing commas.)

  4. fluff piece is fluffy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    I spotted the url before deigning to RTFA. That bunch --all the "properties" in that stable-- specialises in fluff for "executives" and other lesser educatable beings. There's been no shortage of fluff on /. as of late. The softpedia "hacker"-flavoured bs is just as fluffy. And, well, just about every site that gets serially dumped here. Very sad. But it doesn't matter, for /. no longer really matters. Oh well. Keep up the cargo culting, new new ownership. You might get to keep the cargo cultists. Maybe post some more wired feel-good techno-fluff while at it?

  5. War of the marketing material... by Junta · · Score: 3, Insightful

    HDD company says HDDs are going to continue to be the best price/capacity for a while, and it's going to be awesome, traditional SSD company says that's bollocks and HDDs will be completely obviated in the same timeframe, and Intel/Micron say 'screw nand, we got something better'

    It's great to see real advances in technology (unlike the various BS 'revolutions' that are commonplace in pure software), but it would be nice if once in a while a marketing person said something straightforward and honest.

    --
    XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    1. Re:War of the marketing material... by Jherico · · Score: 1

      SSD company says ... HDDs will be completely obviated in the same timeframe

      No one said that. They said that the price of NAND based storage will drop to be competitive with HDDs, but I suspect that there's an unspoken assumption there of HDDs staying static... in other words, NAND storage in a few years will be equivalent to the price per GB of HDDs now.

      Even if NAND storage reaches price parity with HDDs, there will probably remain markets for both, since they have different performance behavior for the lifetime of the device, sine NAND cells will die over time. On the other hand, if the price drop is significant enough to make NAND approach optical media in terms of price per GB, we might see the return of cartridge based game consoles, and the death of long load times and waiting while the game is copied to the console internal HDD.

      --

      Jherico

      What can the average user can do to ensure his security? "Nothing, you're screwed"

    2. Re:War of the marketing material... by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      "Very soon flash will become cheaper than rotating media." In which case you don't buy rotating media anymore. SSD commands a premium because it's got advantages over HDD, so much so that many modern data center SAN racks are going all-SSD despite it costing 4 times as much.

    3. Re:War of the marketing material... by mikael · · Score: 2

      How long before they stick a couple of embedded CPU's or GPU's along with those SSD's?

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    4. Re:War of the marketing material... by castionsosa · · Score: 1

      There will be a place for HDDs, with their price advantage... but already, SSDs are storing stuff more densely than HDDS can. HDDs that use SMR or HAMR will be useful, either as a lower tier for storage, or be used for home NAS servers, just because they are relatively inexpensive, and at the low price point, a 3 TB WD Red HDD for a C-note is a lot cheaper than a 3TB SSD for that use. No, you won't want to run iSCSI from that array, but for stashing files and having some redundancy, it is good enough.

    5. Re:War of the marketing material... by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Well the way I see it the main issue for HDDs is that they don't scale down well. I just looked at the prices now and the cheapest are around 500GB, but you can't get a 250GB drive for half or 125GB drive for a quarter of that but you can get a 128GB SSD for the same. And for a lot of people who are mostly streaming or working in business and not heavy into home video that's plenty. A HDD is still unmatched if you need many TBs of capacity, but hey most people just don't. No, we're not average.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    6. Re:War of the marketing material... by swb · · Score: 2

      I think they pay 4x because the value is worth more than 4x.

      You get a dramatic performance improvement which in itself provides efficiencies in service delivery, reduced power consumption. And the performance benefit itself is an exponential improvement, not just an incremental one.

    7. Re:War of the marketing material... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      but it would be nice if once in a while a marketing person said something straightforward and honest.

      It is all honest. From the point of view of each company they are putting the R&D into doing exactly what the marketing people are currently saying.

      The only real question is who's R&D will bare the fruits first:
      1. Will HDD vendors achieve the next boost in storage first.
      2. Will SDD vendors get 100 layer 3D NAND working first.
      3. Will Intel get their new memory format out first.

      No one is being dishonest.

    8. Re:War of the marketing material... by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      This is why I never use the term "value" in economics. I've written full macroeconomic theories and a decent amount of market economics without talking about anything called "value".

      Of course, theories of value are so broken they eventually concluded that things have value for magical reasons.

    9. Re:War of the marketing material... by painandgreed · · Score: 1

      How long before they stick a couple of embedded CPU's or GPU's along with those SSD's?

      Hah! Computer on a disk. It will take "upgrading my computer's hard drive" to a whole new level.

    10. Re:War of the marketing material... by mikael · · Score: 1

      Hard disk drives already have CPU microcontrollers to handle the cache management algorithms. Some companies actually tried putting some arithmetic logic on their VRAM chips so that pixel operations could be done without fetching across the data bus.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    11. Re:War of the marketing material... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Indeed! Most people I deal with have no idea what **value** is, but even then with/without they do not understand. Anyway, I only pay one dollar around for each gigabyte in SDHC/USB sticks, otherwise I consider it too expensive, but lately all these are becoming scarce in NYC...

  6. 640K by sinij · · Score: 1

    Do we need all this storage capacity? No, this is serious question. We already have NSA admitting that all the data they collected is beyond their ability to analyze. I can assume Google and the likes are largely in the same boat.

    That is, we can produce a lot of data, but what if is it all GIGO?

    1. Re:640K by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      I'm guessing they're assuming that the processing power of tomorrow will make short work of the data they're storing today.

    2. Re:640K by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      HD video. Anime and porn and even regular old television shows and movies.

      So it is mostly GIGO, but people like their garbage.

    3. Re:640K by spire3661 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Absolutely yes. I could harness a 1000 GHZ CPU, and 10,000 TB of storage TODAY no problem. IT would vastly increase my output. Yes, we need more, and that need is not going to abate for at least another 30 years without a quantum jump in storage tech. 4k/60 FPS video is BIG, imagine what 4K 360-degree VR video will take up, and then 8K. Its an unending thirst that will take us the better part of a century to quench.

      --
      Good-bye
  7. If they keep making flash cheaper by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    and with less write endurance, they'll end up with WORN memory, aka /dev/null: write once, read never.

  8. Only pirates have large storage drices by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

    Or, at least, that will be the effect once all of the legal/available methods of ripping your own media are gone.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    1. Re:Only pirates have large storage drices by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nice way to shoehorn in your totally off topic nonsense into the mix. I'm sure you're a blast at parties.

  9. If you have all the garbage it's no longer garbage by Overzeetop · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Garbage is actually filled with valuable substances. GIGO is more applicable to older, discrete entry systems which have specific analysis paths.

    Consider real garbage in your trash, or in transfer station, or in a landfill. It generally has no value - it's garbage. But at a larger and larger scale it begins to have, statsitically, more valuable material in it. Now consider minerals trapped in the earth. We regularly process millions of metric tons of earth to refine and process into the elements we need.

    A truck full of garbage is a smelly mess. An earth full of garbage is a resource which can be mined for nearly anything you need. That's why all the trash we put in Google has greater value as the total amount of garbage they collect increases. It's still garbage...but at that scale it can be refined into money.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  10. fast, non-volatile by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I wonder how long it'll be before there is a service to take a heap of data
    ( all of my C drive, all of my D drive ( E is cd/dvd ) and put it all into a hard-disk-like
    storage where it cannot be written, and does not wear out for > 20 years....
    cheap, non-volatile, ROM.... for backups...

    1. Re:fast, non-volatile by castionsosa · · Score: 2

      LTO 7 WORM tapes seem to be the best thing for this as of now. Not cheap for the drive, but cartridges are not bad, and have a very long archival life.

      After that, perhaps Amazon Glacier comes to mind. Cheap to get the data in... costly to get it out.

    2. Re:fast, non-volatile by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      So, an LTO tape drive then?

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  11. why stop there? by Comboman · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'm just going to download and store a local copy of the internet. Then I can cancel my ISP service.

    --
    Support Right To Repair Legislation.
  12. Will it ever get cheap again? by grumbel · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Back in 2011 I could get a 1.5TB drive for 45€, now five years later the best I can get is 3TB for 90€. Double the storage for double the price. If I just want to spend 50€ I only get 1TB. It's nice that we now have 6TB and 8TB drives, but they aren't cheap and so far haven't really lowered the price of the smaller drives and given how long this has already taken I am not even sure if HDDs will ever get cheap again before SSDs will take that space.

    1. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by djbckr · · Score: 1

      Just last week bought a 5TB drive for $130 (USD). Not long ago, a 1TB drive was the same price. I'm not sure what you are saying - it seems pretty cheap to me.

    2. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There was a time just before the flooding of hdd facilities when 2TB drives were 60-69. Technically by now 3TB drives should be in the $60 price range but they are not.

    3. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      3TB is a problematic size format which is why drives of 3TB have not hit the economies of scale but I assure you 4TB will fall to 75USD this year.

    4. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by Solandri · · Score: 2

      Price per GB has resumed dropping since the effect of the Thailand flooding and HDD consolidation in 2011-2012. Quite frankly, that price adjustment upwards was needed, as the HDD industry had some of the slimmest margins in the electronics industry (around 1%-3%, vs 5%-10% for electronics overall). Slim margins = less money companies are able to devote to R&D = slower rate of capacity improvement.

      And don't fret about the rate of price drops slowing down since 2009 in the graph. The y-axis on that chart needs to be on a log scale to draw that sort of conclusion.

    5. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Although it is true that HDD prices have dropped somewhat since the floods, the 30-year old trend of declining $/byte has been long broken. And of course, the accident has only some influence in that. If progress in areal density, and as an extension reduction in price, had continued, we'd be at about 1 cent / GB by now. Instead it's almost three time as much, and seems to be stuck.

      What's more, the technologies which have improved density and capacity over the last years are kind of niche and not for everybody: Helium filled drives, Shingled Magnetic Recording (SMR). Maybe heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) will fix that, but if we'll have to wait till 2018 to see that, it better be cheap, e.g. at 1.5 cent / GB, a 20 TB drive should cost $300.

      Reference data, and log-based graphs:
      https://hblok.net/storage

    6. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Back in 2011 I could get a 1.5TB drive for 45€, now five years later the best I can get is 3TB for 90€. Double the storage for double the price.

      Just as well there was no major natural disaster skewing your statistics in that time frame ....

    7. Re:Will it ever get cheap again? by grumbel · · Score: 1

      Price per GB has resumed dropping [cbsistatic.com] since the effect of the Thailand flooding and HDD consolidation in 2011-2012.

      The most frustrating part isn't so much the price per gigabyte, as that is back to pre-flood levels, but that you only get that good GB/$ rate in the $100 price range, while you used to get that in the $50 range. If you only need 1 or 2TB you are still paying quite a bit more then five years ago, it's only with 3TB-8TB drives that you get a slightly better rate then pre-flood.

  13. Reliability by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Great! My new Skylake build is already obsolete!

    Seriously, I could live with half the capacity of my magnetic disk, if it were more reliable.

  14. Good. by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

    "Very soon flash will be cheaper than rotating media," said Siva Sivaram, executive vice president of memory at SanDisk.

    I can hardly wait. Just as core replaced drum and ram replaced drum I am excited to get rid of spinning platters. The day I can get a 3TB SSD for around $100 will be a great day.
    Of course it might be possible to get a 40TB HD for that price by then...

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    1. Re:Good. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Perhaps misplaced ... but I remember the time when we had races for the smallest disk size (as in form factor). Something like 1" disks. The first iPods had super small disks, and basically read one track and stopped the disk then. Fotos of such disks usually where comparing it with a small coin, "a dime" or "one Mark" (that was pre Euro). That was not that long ago.

      Steve would say: is that not incredible? No, I think his term was "amazing" ... anyway.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    2. Re:Good. by PlusFiveTroll · · Score: 1

      40TB HDD? It's apt to fail before you read all the data off of it... Ok, I'm only slightly joking there. The IOPS will still be piss poor on spinning media, so it will only get good throughput with large files, current benchmarks on 8TB drives show around a 150MBps read and write, if that holds the same, it will take over 70 hours to transfer all 40TB, in the best case scenarios.

    3. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just think of it as a compact tape robot with sub-second rewind times.

    4. Re:Good. by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      Ok then an 8TB 2.5" HDD for $90.
      Even at today's prices I see HDDs as more of archive storage. You put large amounts of data like media on them. Also if IOPS count then you will just keep adding spindles to an array.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  15. Improvements in technology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting

    2005: DVD-RWs are cheap enough to time-shift a huge movie collection onto DVDs. But completely and utterly impractical to give copies to your friends.

    2015: Hard drives are cheap enough to time-shift a huge movie collection onto a single hard drive. Now possible to give subsets to friends on smaller portable drives.

    2025: Memory sticks are cheap enough to amass a huge movie collection on a single small memory stick. Also now cheap enough to send the entire collection to friends.

    2035: Nonvolatile memory storage is cheap enough to retain copies of all movies ever produced, at 4K and 8K resolution.

  16. Not likely. by Type44Q · · Score: 1

    that will ensure data storage will not only keep up with but exceed demand

    If that were to happen, the bottom would drop out of the market; they're obviously not going to produce so much that they shoot themselves in the foot.

  17. Will anyone look at all this data? by k6mfw · · Score: 1

    I was talking with someone that works with storage systems, he mentioned other technologies to replace HD and their looking into massive petabytes (sp?) of storage capacity. I asked with so much data, when does anyone have enough time to look back at it. His reply, "they will not."

    OK some data will be examined, I'm thinking from my perspective. I have about three major email accounts. One has 360 messages, I recently trashed 800 but few years ago I archived 2000 messages (but haven't looked at them since). Another account as 10,000 messages both the inbox and out. Probably many I can trash (but it takes sooooo long to review them). Third account has 5000 I think. And these are small compared to many others. Plus there's everything else from reports to jokes. What takes lot of memory is videos. I also have stacks of DVDs, DV tapes, VHS tapes. I guess hang on to this like a library because no way I will go back and watch them all (some I may). It seems I will be dead of old age by the time I get to the last video. Of course the media will deteriorate so I guess it's all moot.

    --
    mfwright@batnet.com
  18. Yawn by Striek · · Score: 1

    Data storage capacities are going up. News at 11.

    --
    "Government is like fire; a handy servant, but a dangerous master." -- George Washington
    1. Re:Yawn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why do you take this as for granted?

  19. This is how we can combat Big Brother surveillance by KWTm · · Score: 1

    This is, actually, the key to fighting constant monitoring by the NSA and other three-letter agencies, I believe: generate a lot of spurious data, too much for them to store, much less analyze.

    If I kept sending email of 10 MB files (I know, that's small nowadays) which were randomly generated and had no meaning , and then erased them once they reached the other side (e.g. maybe a different email account of mine), then that's no skin off my back since I know I shouldn't care. Any monitoring agencies, though, would want to store it for later analysis (good luck!).

    In other words, I consume relatively few resources while any snoopers would have to consume relatively many.

    If I sent such a file once an hour, the government would have to devote a lot of resources to trying to figure me out. If we all sent such a file once an hour, say with a Firefox extension or something (it doesn't have to waste too much bandwidth -- send it to some cooperating fellow on the same ISP subnet, let's say), then I'm pretty sure we could put a serious dent in the ability for Big Brother to monitor "everything".

    --
    404555974007725459910684486621289147856453481154 in hex is "You sank my Battleship?"
    [GPG key in journal]
  20. Seagate claimed 60TB by 2016 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This post on Slashdot reminds me of previous post on Slashdot from 2012 about 60TB 3.5 inch and 10TB 2.5 inch drives by 2016. Again it was based on Seagate's 2006 patent on heat assisted magnetic recording. I think it is more realistic at his point to expect LTO tape to provide 220TB storage than Seagate making good on it's dream of HAMR drives. This latest claim should be an indication of how much trouble Seagate is having with their heat-assisted technology. They are essentially giving themselves a 4 year extension to achieve only a third of the results that they previously claimed.

    1. Re:Seagate claimed 60TB by 2016 by DoctorBit · · Score: 2

      It goes back even farther than that!

      Here's an article from 2010 reporting Seagate promising 100TB HAMR hard drives:
      http://www.myce.com/news/seaga...

      Here's an article from 2006 reporting Seagate promising HAMR hard drives in "a few years":
      http://webcache.googleusercont...

      Also I'm puzzled by the claims about hundred layer 3D NAND chips. I can see how a hundred-layer chip would increase density and therefore could reduce access latency, but I don't see how it could significantly reduce cost-per-bit. Sure, there will be a hundred times as many bits per square cm, but a hundred times as many manufacturing processing steps should be required to make it, thereby increasing manufacturing cost a hundred-fold. Also, with all those manufacturing steps, the chance of defects also goes up, thereby reducing yields and increasing costs even more. Reduced latency would be cool, but I don't see it reducing cost-per-bit by much, if at all.

      Also, Intel seems to be peculiarly self-contradicting when discussing their 3D XPoint technology. In 2015 they claimed that 3D XPoint was NOT phase-change technology and that it was already in volume production to prepare for sale in early 2016. In 2016 they're claiming that 3D XPoint IS phase-change technology and will not enter volume production until 2017.

      I've become very cynical about all this. Frankly, I'll believe these things when I can see them with my own eyes.

  21. All of this storage, an yet Apple ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... will STILL be releasing mobile devices with 16Gigs base storage.

  22. Re:This is how we can combat Big Brother surveilla by KGIII · · Score: 1

    Hmm... I like this idea.

    10 MB file created, encrypted, mailed, sent to /dev/null.
    Recipient encrypts it again, mails to next person, sent to /dev/null.
    Daisy chain it so more people can participate.
    Every third (or so) time it's encrypted, the next one gets deleted and a new 10 MB random file is generated.
    Have it go in circles BUT also have it 'cross-fire' so that it's sending data to random participants.
    Get more than 1 file moving around.
    Make it tit-easy and let people join/participate.
    It can all be done over email.

    It doesn't need to be done over email, there are other options but they like email so that's probably the best choice. It can support expansion just by one of the many, many ways to host mailing lists. Let people rate-limit how many they send, maybe allow for scheduling. It seems like it'd be pretty damned easy to do this - and it doesn't even need to be directly on your ISP's subnet.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  23. Unlimited storage by Winkkin · · Score: 1

    The sad aspect of this story is that developers grossly underestimate our demand for 'selfies'.