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Mars InSight Mission To Launch In 2018, After $150M Failure and Delay (arstechnica.com)
Reader wbr1 points to Ars Technica's Wednesday report that NASA has announced a 2018 launch date for its InSight mission to Mars, two years after its original launch date; the date slip gives engineers time to fix problems with the spacecraft's seismometer system. Adds wbr1: "Even with the failure and extra cost, I think this is the type of mission we should be doing more of. We need more landers and rovers, everywhere we can put them. The science benefit is high, but the cost is magnitudes lower than launching meatbags and all the attendant support they need."
The science benefit is high, but the cost is magnitudes lower than launching meatbags and all the attendant support they need.
Thanks wbr1, for that insightful and unbiased commentary. You made me re-read the summary to figure out why such shite was in there, and hey look, it was the submitter.
We need more landers and rovers, everywhere we can put them. The science benefit is high, but the cost is magnitudes lower than launching meatbags and all the attendant support they need.
More landers and rovers, less potatoes and sh*t.
Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
Propaganda. Lies.
the cost is magnitudes lower than launching meatbags
I resemble that remark!
Of course there are some advantages to help settle another sphere using robotic crews, but unless the goal is to spread our bloody androids throughout the universe, human settlements are a must.
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.
Ernest Hemingway
Cost is the object, why send anything at all?
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Them lousy meatbags and the all their problems. Keep em on Earth
I think this is the type of mission we should be doing more of. We need more landers and rovers, everywhere we can put them.
I agree.
The science benefit is high, but the cost is magnitudes lower than launching meatbags and all the attendant support they need.
Sigh... Getting tired of this meme. The science value of sending robots versus sending people DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU ARE STUDYING. Some lines of scientific inquiry it is clearly more economically efficient to send robots. For a different set of problems it is more valuable to send people. In fact there are some problems that you literally cannot study with robots. (Human physiology not the least among them) While I agree that robotic probes are hugely valuable and we should send more, it doesn't follow that there is no value (scientific or otherwise) in sending humans into space. Yes sending people is expensive and difficult. But the good news is that we learn FAR more by sending people. We have to develop all sorts of technology that would otherwise never come about. We are forced down avenues of inquiry that would never come up on any robotic mission. And we can study things that cannot be studied by robots. By all means, keep sending robots but shutting down human spaceflight is both shortsighted and ill advised.
I think it is an objective truth that sending humans to space is costlier and more error prone than unmanned probes.
But it is not the important issue. Yes human spaceflight is costlier and more difficult but we also learn more from doing it. Human spaceflight forces us into lines of scientific inquiry and to develop technologies that would never come up with robotic missions. Much of the most valuable technology that has come out of the space program has come from the manned program. There are things that cannot be easily or productively studied with robotic probes, not the least of which is human physiology and biology.
Whether we have achieved all the value we can from unmanned probes such that we need to send humans to make further progress is the part that is subject to continued debate.
I think that incorrectly frames the issue. It's not about doing everything we can with robots before sending humans. We should do everything we can with robots AND send humans. We'll learn far more by doing both than by doing either exclusively.
Sounds like a program that will be able to send really closeup pictures of the Mars Climate Orbiter "landing" site. Why don't they step back, take a breath, and get their ducks in a row...or have the Johns Hopkins people build the thing? I'm still amazed at how quickly it was built, and how perfect a job New Horizons did. Wow!
Just like Constellation, this is never going to happen. The current administration simply wants a bunch of clapping and cheering and to be otherwise supportive, but it's not really going to happen.
We should do everything we can with robots AND send humans. We'll learn far more by doing both than by doing either exclusively.
I think we should send robots to far places, and keep dicking around near earth with humans, where they are close enough to send help. When we get better at space travel, then we can start sending humans out to the boonies of our solar system. Until then, it's a bit of a joke really.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
The only reason we should be spending deep space probes in the first place is if we're planning to send humans to deep space. Otherwise, we should be happy staring at our telescopes or taking joy rides to the Karman line. The only exception to this is finding out if there's some nearby heavenly monster out to do us harm, an asteroid headed our way or an impending gamma ray burster, which can probably be detected using ground-based or earth-orbital sensors.
If we're not going to do a crewed, human mission to Mars, then lets stop doing all this supposedly scientific deep space research. Confine our research to low earth orbit or solar observation, since those are the things that matter the most to us down here, aside from the usual mapping and weather forecasting.
I don't think anyone is saying there is zero scientific value to sending humans to Mars, so that is a bit of a strawman.
I've seen respected scientific journalists saying almost exactly that, or that there is so little to be learned that it isn't worth it. Not to mention plenty of people here. They are clearly saying that we should starve or stop the manned spaceflight program and focus on robotics exclusively or almost so.
The argument is that the cost to benefit ratio is way out of proportion, especially considering a large portion of the human physiological portion knowledge could be learned in LEO, with diminishing returns from going to the Moon.
The cost benefit ratio only seems off if you aren't looking at very deeply or have a short ROI expectation. The benefits of manned spaceflight generally take longer to realize so it just seems bad when your cost/benefit analysis has an unreasonably short time horizon.
I had never considered a slur against the entirety of the human species. Mission accomplished, wbr1. It is important to send humans to Mars so that we fully understand all the attendant support we need. I copy pasted part of that last sentence, changing they to we. It is important to learn, so that we can figure out indefinite human self-sustainability on Mars. It is important to do this sooner rather than later as it is becoming increasingly clear that the days of human civilization on Earth are counting down exponentially on multiple fronts, and that the machinery behind it is a runaway and likely unstoppable process. Say what you want of him, but it's pretty clear Elon is hell bent on getting people to Mars asap is in order for humanity to continue in the increasingly likely and close looming possibility we will not continue on this planet. We've done great work and achieved much scientifically sending landers, rovers, and orbiters. Truly it has all been impressive and and important. Also, I certainly support the idea of sending more. While we have more to learn about the planet, we have learned enough to begin serious preparation for an imminent colonization effort. There is a reason Elon is so brazen as to call his ships colonial transporters. I have too many health problems to ever be a viable colonist, but I want the human race to continue while I face come what may here on Earth. Will we one day have wars on Mars? Perhaps, but it's a chance we have to take. I would hope that future Martian's will look back on their ancestral home and grow the fuck up. It seems inevitable that, for various reasons, future Martians will have to start genetically engineering themselves, perhaps the will add some smarts and better tuned empathy.
It used to be that I was not the doom and gloom apocalypse type, even arguing against it for a bright human future here on Earth. Anymore you would be naive to think any different.
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There are things that cannot be easily or productively studied with robotic probes, not the least of which is human physiology and biology.
All of which could be studied in orbit. Now if you set human biology aside just for a moment, it would be more precise to say "some things are easier to study with human-run experiments than robots." The key point is that that set of things is a function of mission duration. Some things that are most efficiently done by humans on the Moon would be more efficiently done by robots on the Mars. Some things that are most efficiently done by humans on Mars would be more efficiently done by robots on Europa.
The problem is that the things that can only be done by humans on Mars would cost beyond what anyone wants to pay for a realistic mission, and a half-assed program that gets axed when the true cost of success becomes undeniable is a waste of time and money.
I'd like to see humans on Mars, but I think the shortest path to that happening starts with a sustained and regular program of robotic exploration. With experience we'll get better at getting things there cheaply and landing them there reliably. Then at some point an acceptably risky manned mission will become a financial possibility. But we won't do it because it's the most efficient way of doing Mars research, robotics will continue to advance as fast or faster than our space capabilities. The reasons for doing a manned mission will be a question for anthropology and political science, not economics or engineering.
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There are certainly things we can study with manned missions that we cannot robotically. However the political/financial will is not there.
The fact that currently there is a lack of political will does not mean there never will be. What is the most inspirational thing ever done in space? Sending people to the moon. Why did we go? To beat the Russians. What superpower is emerging now? China. Think the US and China are going to compete in space? You better believe it. China is going to want to show off and the US is nothing if not competitive. I think Neil DeGrasse Tyson was more or less correct that we do big missions when either there is A) an existential threat or B) money to be made. Sooner or later one of those things will come about and the money will flow.
My hope is that robotic missions will advance science more cheaply, and at some point there will be a discovery that will make political or corporate manned missions a no-brainer. For right now though manned exploration is not something we have the will to do, and this seems to maybe be the best path to get there.
I think your reasoning is backwards there. First off there won't be "a discovery" that makes manned missions attractive. It will be multi-factorial. You will almost certainly never find a reason to send people into space by sending probes and hoping for the best. You (ideally) want to send people and use that as a halo project to attract funding for the robotic missions. Almost nobody outside of us geeks actually gives shit about the latest probe mission to Mars. It certainly doesn't hold anyone's attention for long even if you can get their attention in the first place. No, you need something more inspirational than a probe.
What you (ideally) want to do is send people and use that to build the funding. You need to give the politicians a reason to care they have a hard time ignoring. Robotic probes will not do that. You have to think about how to market space exploration. Some people are going to be against it no matter what but you don't need to convince everyone, just enough. Believe me if China sends a manned mission to the moon, you can be the US will sit up and take interest. I think we're not being clever enough about what we are doing in space. Instead of having the ISS in low earth orbit, why didn't we put it in an Earth/Moon orbit for example? Focus on the technology and economic benefits we get from the space program. The ROI is astounding but we barely hear a whisper about that.
All of which could be studied in orbit.
100% false. We can study a lot in orbit but there are limits. You cannot study much about biological issues on other planetary bodies in orbit. For that you have to go there.
Now if you set human biology aside just for a moment,
Setting aside human biology is akin to dumping the whole point of a manned space program. Can't do it.
it would be more precise to say "some things are easier to study with human-run experiments than robots."
Not only are some things easier, the differences can be vast in some cases. Furthermore some things really cannot be studied by robot effectively.
I'd like to see humans on Mars, but I think the shortest path to that happening starts with a sustained and regular program of robotic exploration.
I think that is part of the equation but not all of it. Robotic exploration alone will never develop the technology needed to sustain life in space. It would be very easy to over-focus on robotic exploration and starve the (harder and more expensive) manned exploration. The longer you wait to start research about the life support systems, biology, physiology, etc the longer it will be before we are doing something more interesting than orbiting 400 miles above earth's surface.
The reasons for doing a manned mission will be a question for anthropology and political science, not economics or engineering.
Disagree. The reasons for doing a manned mission will be either existential or economic. We went to the moon because we were competing with Russia and considered the idea of Russia getting ahead of us in space to be an existential threat. It's likely China will play that role next. We send satellites into orbit now because there are economic benefits to doing so. The technology we develop though our space program has (huge) economic benefit. Any reason to establish a base on the Moon or Mars or elsewhere will need to have some sort of economic benefit.
100% false. We can study a lot in orbit but there are limits. You cannot study much about biological issues on other planetary bodies in orbit. For that you have to go there.
Alright. Name one issue of human biology that can only be studied by putting a human on Mars that is not specifically limited to the question of whether humans can live on Mars.
Setting aside human biology is akin to dumping the whole point of a manned space program. Can't do it.
Well, "whole point" is an exaggeration, but there's a reason I said "for the moment". I'm inviting you to consider the opportunity cost that a manned mission to Mars would present -- it's impact on other research priorities.
(1) Robotic exploration alone will never develop the technology needed to sustain life in space. (2) It would be very easy to over-focus on robotic exploration and starve the (harder and more expensive) manned exploration.
I agree with (1), but I wasn't suggesting abandoning manned space flight entirely, just prioritizing robotic spaceflight for exploration beyond the immediate vicinity of Earth. I disagree in a qualified way with (2). I think the most cost-effective way of extending manned space travel to Mars is get really good at all the Mars-specific aspects of getting stuff there and landing it on the surface by practicing with robotics, while continuing to pursue the generic aspects of manned spaceflight in orbit, or perhaps with Lunar missions.
Any reason to establish a base on the Moon or Mars or elsewhere will need to have some sort of economic benefit.
Agreed, but with the stipulation that it's the most cost effective way of obtaining that benefit. If it isn't, you're doing it for anthropological or political reasons.
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Seriously, we need to get red dragon going so that we can simply load on various sensors, robots, etc. And with a costs of under 200M to launch one to mars, it becomes very cheap to send one. Once we have that, it makes it easy to send multiple dragons even in the same year.
Hopefully, musk will send a dragon to mars once he has gotten dragon fly working on earth. And if he does one in 2018, with his garden and extra sensors, he will make it possible to send loads more in 2020.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
...or religious reasons.
Humans have only once launched into space where there was any realistic plan for 'help'. That was for the last hubble servicing mission when they had another shuttle ready on the pad. Did you see anyone going up to help apollo 13? Mir when it caught fire? No.
Yes human spaceflight is costlier and more difficult but we also learn more from doing it.
No we don't. We learn less pound for pound. We learn less dollar for dollar and we learn much less mission for mission. And that is leaving out dead astronaut costs and just sheer minimum mission costs. Because meat bags keep dying without air, or water, or when it gets cold or they get a bunch of radiation on em. Then they can't even walk around without a +10M suit which gives them the fineness and mobility of the Michelin man.
Don't send a man to do a machines job.
If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
Why the hell do we need to be there to run a remote lab? Lab work is mostly pretty mechanical is terms of protocols. The rest is not going to be affected by the lag (up to 40mins iirc). We can do "human run experiments" without a human leaving earth.
If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
Just to play devil's advocate here for a second, clearly you don't need a human to run a lab test you planned to do right from the drawing board, but you might find it helpful to have a human available if an unexpected problem or opportunity arises. Humans are versatile, machines are not -- not in comparison at least. When the heater for your assay breaks down a human can look at it and scavenge parts from another piece of equipment. If a Martian strolls up and says "hi", a human can say "hi" back.
Take geology. I have no doubt whatsoever that a geologist actually on Mars with his full toolkit and a general purpose lab would get more geology done than some robot carrying out a few specially designed experiments. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are a few geology things we just can't do yet with robots yet. I just don't think we can get more geology done with humans for what we have to spend, even supposing that's enough to pay for a manned mission.
In time that may change. At some point we may experience diminishing returns from each new robotic mission, and then it will be time to prioritize manned missions over robotic ones. But we're far from that point ow.
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Mainly due to problems with its new nuclear power plant. Its doing OK now, but slower getting to Mount Sharp than some people had hoped for.
I for one welcome our meatbag overlords!
"objective".
Where do you get the bizarre idea that humans are "more error prone than unmanned probes"? Humans make and operate those probes, and plenty of those probes have failed.
If you are the sort who wants to "know about space", like some people want to "know about" art by looking at photos of it (rather than actually making any art, meeting with artists, going to art museums and shows, etc) then exploring space with robot probes is probably your cup of tea. If, on the other hand, you actually want humanity to make use of space, then humans need to be exploring it, just as humans must actually create art for art to be of real value to humanity. If humans are not going to go to these places and eventually explore and even colonize some of them, then there is no reason to waste money sending probes to them, for it matters little if the information we have on them is real or not. If you just want space pictures for your amusement and to satisfy your curiosity, James Cameron can whip-up another Avatar film for you. Concept art painted by a Hollywood artist is just as good, and a whole lot cheaper, than actual photos of distant places mankind will never go to and never be affected by. We really only need to get REAL data on REAL distant places from probes if we are going to someday send people there.
What you probes-only, or probes-mostly, people do not GET is that by dissing manned spaceflight you are killing the justification for unmanned spaceflight. There are just not enough taxpayers who are willing to pay to satisfy the academic curiosities of some eggheads at JPL, and a handful of fellow citizens who have a fixation on space. A larger part of the taxbase is interested in space when it is "the new frontier" and a place their descendants will occupy - it gives people a sense of "the future" beyond today or tomorrow.
Oh, and all these years of robots trundling around on Mars have done the science a pair of humans could have done in 24 hours. Our astronauts on the moon did more in their first 24 hours than all the Ranger and Surveyor missions combined. Putting a human being into a place changes the way all humanity sees both that place and themselves. After Niel and Buzz set foot, a new phrase entered the American lexicon: "if we can put a man on the moon, why can't we {insert other activity here}?". The moon became an actual PLACE to people rather than a shape in the sky. The American taxpayer only got behind all those probes to other planets AFTER Americans stepped onto the moon and the people were told man would someday be moving out into the solar system.
Cart: Meet Horse.
You can be totally incompetent and your punishment is a multi-year employment contract extension and more money for your project. The incentives are all in-favor of preliminary (possibly planned) failure, followed by more money and more time to work, and then the eventual professional success. There is simply no down-side to staging/orchestrating an early failure, and/or (as with JWST) boldly lying about the schedule and costs at the beginning when the project is just a proposal competing with other proposals.
That's been working REALLY well for the James Webb Space Telescope clowns. By the time JWST becomes operational, there will be an entire team of people who will have built entire careers on that single project, going from grad student to retiree, while the taxpayers watched it drag-out many years beyond the original schedule and tripling (quadrupling, quintupling?) its multi-billion-dollar budget. JWST started in 1996 and was supposed to launch in 2007 (and be retired in 2017) and have a total cost of approx 4.5 Billion US$ for EVERYTHING (design, construction, launch, and operations over its mission lifetime of ten years). JWST is now scheduled to launch in 2018 (after it was originally planned to be retired) and the budget is well over 8 billion (artificially lowered by budgeting for only half of its operational life).
In private industry (Note: Wall St Banks are NOT "private industry"), if your project goes so far over-budget, slips so far behind schedule, and the "experts" on your team prove unable to find the solutions to technical challenges within the allotted time, your project might get the axe and your management team almost certainly will. IF your project continues, the "experts" who could not solve the technical problems will be replaced by new people.
To continue on with this line of thought, if a heater breaks down, your entire crew dies. If the air recycling fails, everybody dies. If the airlock fails, no more science and everyone outside dies. If a space suit has a fault, your shit out of luck. No it is not the movies and you can't just fix it with human ingenuity and duck tape. You just fucking die.
Now add the many metric tons of life support equipment, extra costs of the "failure is not an option", for a meatbag. And no humans to mars will not do better than a similar mass budget and raw budget robotic mission. Not even close. Manned missions are shit for science no matter how you slice it.
If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?