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Study: Drones Present Minimal Threat To Aircraft (cio.com)
itwbennett writes: A study from George Mason University, which estimates danger from consumer drones, suggests that rules around private drone use could be relaxed without endangering general aviation. [Researcher] Eli Dourado [coupled] data on bird strikes with aircraft, with an estimate of the number of birds in airspace and the average weight per species of bird, and concluded that "a two-kilogram drone would cause an injury once every 187 million years of continuous operation."
Dourado admits there are some limitations to his estimate. While drones are crafted with plastic and metal, birds are generally softer and more likely to get squished on impact with an aircraft. However, birds are likely to be flying in flocks, where the danger of having several sucked into the engines is greater. US Airways flight 1549 was a prime example of this as the aircraft encountered numerous bird strikes which took out its engines, causing it to land in New York's Hudson River. In addition, the research doesn't include the possibility of someone maliciously trying to hit an aircraft.
Dourado admits there are some limitations to his estimate. While drones are crafted with plastic and metal, birds are generally softer and more likely to get squished on impact with an aircraft. However, birds are likely to be flying in flocks, where the danger of having several sucked into the engines is greater. US Airways flight 1549 was a prime example of this as the aircraft encountered numerous bird strikes which took out its engines, causing it to land in New York's Hudson River. In addition, the research doesn't include the possibility of someone maliciously trying to hit an aircraft.
Anyone who actually uses a drone for any sort of photography (instead of "Here's how fast I can lose my $800 toy by standing on the UP button") knows the only decent pictures are taken from 200 feet. We have GoogleMaps to look at our neighborhoods with - but most of the interesting views are barely over the treetops or the power lines.
I work directly with commercial and military pilots. Drones scare the shit out of them.
That's because people most closely involved in any type of activity are some of the worst placed to judge the risk of an activity. They are able to get a good picture of the consequence but they almost universally hugely over-estimate the likelihood of any scenario. That is something that goes well beyond aviation.