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Within 6 Years, Most Vehicles Will Allow OTA Software Updates (computerworld.com)

Lucas123 writes: By 2022, using a thumb drive or taking your vehicle to the location you bought it for a software update will seem as strange as it would be for a smartphone or laptop today. By 2022, there will be 203 million vehicles on the road that can receive software over-the-air (SOTA) upgrades; among those vehicles, at least 22 million will also be able to get firmware upgrades, according to a new report by ABI Research. Today, there are about 253 million cars and trucks on the road, according to IHS Automotive. The main reasons automakers are moving quickly to enable OTA upgrades: recall costs, autonomous driving and security risks based on software complexities, according to Susan Beardslee, a senior analyst at ABI Research. "It is a welcome transformation, as OTA is the only way to accomplish secure management of all of a connected car's software in a seamless, comprehensive, and fully integrated manner," Beardslee said.

27 of 199 comments (clear)

  1. So defective cars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So you're telling me you'll be selling defective cars that need repaired so often their need OTA updates? And not just a regular maintenance at the dealership?

    And where are the regulatory authorities then? Are they sitting on their asses while you sell us these defective cars?

    1. Re:So defective cars by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Indeed. When I see this,

      "It is a welcome transformation, as OTA is the only way to accomplish secure management of all of a connected car's software in a seamless, comprehensive, and fully integrated manner," Beardslee said.

      my first thought is that maybe cars being so connected before we have the robustness to go with it isn't such a great idea.

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    2. Re: So defective cars by Z00L00K · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's the legal bodies that will like this most since now they can cripple our cars remotely.

      --
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    3. Re:So defective cars by bev_tech_rob · · Score: 2

      I started to flame you for your tinfoil hat type comment, but I got to thinking about what if the emissions controls broke down, you couldn't afford to fix it, and the authorities disable your car until you can have it TOWED into a dealership and repaired?

      States like Georgia have something similar to this already but don't use remote kill switches. If the authorities pull you over and can visually confirm your vehicle is non-compliant, they can have the vehicle impounded and force you to pay money into an escrow account that a car dealer can access to bring the vehicle back up to specs (at least they do that for diesel trucks that might have the EGR, DPF, etc removed).

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    4. Re:So defective cars by BostonPilot · · Score: 2
      In a previous reply I referred to a graph here that has some interesting info, and would suggest that the average driver is safer in a modern car.

      On the subject of airbags, I'm not a huge fan. One 1997 article I read shows only a 5% decrease in fatalities versus just a lap+shoulder belt. I religiously use my seatbelt, but recognize that a lot of people don't (the same article claimed a 13% fatality reduction if you had airbags but no seatbelt but why wouldn't you wear your seatbelt and enjoy a 45-50% reduction in risk?). I had a 4 point seatbelt in one of my cars and I would order that again in a heartbeat if it was an option on cars (and if I get the Lotus I want I'll probably make sure it has a 4 point system). Seat belts have saved my life at least a couple times I believe.

      ABS I am a fan of, having driven for decades with both I think that in panic situations ABS is much more likely to result in the driver retaining control of the car. The only thing I hate is that (at least my Subaru STi) sucks in snow with ABS - I think there should at least be a defeat switch (this is legal, but I don't think any shop will install it for fear of being sued). Very experienced drivers can lock up the wheels in a non-ABS car to slide straight while spinning, but I think the number of drivers who actually have that skill set is extremely small. Again, I think all cars should have an ABS defeat switch, but I would probably only use it in snowy conditions myself). An article in Wikipedia on ABS reinforced my feeling that on pavement it's a net gain, but in snow/gravel/sand it may actually hurt.

      Another thing to mention is that brake systems are much better today than the 70's when most passenger cars used drum brakes. They were very prone to fade and in my opinion did not typically give you the kind of braking force that you have in a modern car with disk brakes.

      Electronic stability control gets high points... NHTSA says ESC reduces crashes by 35% and as much as 67% in SUVs. US Insurance Institute for Highway Safety said (according to Wikipedia) that ESC can prevent up to 10,000 fatal USA crashes annually. This sounds believable to me.

      In any case, I tend to think you're safer in a newer car, and you don't so we can agree to disagree. Luckily we can both purchase the cars we want!

  2. better by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Better buy a car before then.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    1. Re:better by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Insightful
      The problem is that the quality of software being put into cars has been decreasing. That isn't something you want to mess with, you want to make sure it has close to zero bugs.

      Being able to push OTA updates will only encourage managers to declare projects done then fix things later. The threat of a recall like an invisible hand encourages car companies to try extra hard to get it right.

      Furthermore, there generally isn't adequate protection of critical systems from those that are provided for the convenience of the passengers. Those systems generally aren't very secure

      Exactly.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  3. Autonomous Driving by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    BY DEFINITION the car can DRIVE ITSELF to the dealership.

    It can do this at night, when I am sleeping.

    It will wait in line with the other cars, the techs will plug in their devices, and they will fix the car.

    The car will then DRIVE ITSELF home, park itself in the driveway, and finish its recharge cycle.

    Why in the world would anybody need OTA?

    1. Re:Autonomous Driving by Casualposter · · Score: 2

      I have NEVER had a software update on any of the vehicles that I have driven. NEVER. I have had regular maintenance that I have done myself for decades. There is no reason to have a software update for a car unless that car was defective to begin with. The information that we have so far indicates that these cars are unsecured and open to tampering from afar. The spying done by government and auto companies is bad enough, but foreign script kiddies wrecking cars for fun and profit is not a path we should go down.

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    2. Re:Autonomous Driving by bondsbw · · Score: 2

      If the manufacturer can deliver OTA updates, so can hackers.

      I'd prefer a secured physical update device at the dealership any day, even if it costs extra to get my car there. (And this should somewhat discourage using the masses as their beta testing platform... they'll get tired of constant updates costing them money.)

      --
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  4. The real resaon for this by jmd · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Once the government has a suspected terrorist in their sights, they can have the auto manufacturer perform an OTA software upgrade to the suspected terrorists car then when turned on will lock the doors, roll up the windows and autonomously suspected terrorist to the nearest police station.

    1. Re:The real resaon for this by mwvdlee · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's only one time for that one particular car and they promise to delete the code afterwards.

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    2. Re:The real resaon for this by jouassou · · Score: 2

      By 2022, there will be 203 million vehicles on the road that can receive spyware over-the-air (SOTA) upgrades.

  5. oblig. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    what could possibly go wrong?

    ota update mechanisms will be hacked.

    ota updates of car software will be abused by certain agencies.. think feds, local enforcement agencies, etc.

    ota updates puts a cellular modem in every car, also will be abused by above for tracking.

    these modems will each use a phone number. our phone number pool (nanp) is finite-sized, and depleting fast enough the way it is.

  6. Can't wait for the FBI to demand a kill switch by cfalcon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So the FBI will demand a kill switch. After all, if someone is running from cops we know they are guilty of something, because running from cops is illegal. If they can demand your phone have a backdoor, your car is obviously MUCH more important- a car can commit way more crimes than a phone!

    The fact that these will be hackable is also just so amazing.

    What a terrible fucking idea. I hope that people don't fall for this shit, but I'm afraid that they will.

    1. Re:Can't wait for the FBI to demand a kill switch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They already demand Onstar turn on the microphones when they want to spy on the passengers of a car.
      http://www.tonyrogers.com/news/onstar.htm

      The head of Google, Eric Schmidt, uses an iPhone not an Android phone, if you've never noticed, Google Play Services can do everything OnStar can do and far more. It can video, turn on the mic, listen in on calls, send fake SMSs, read emails, etc. and if FBI has used warrants to require OnStar to spy on its customers, you can be sure they've done that many times with Google.

      http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/eric-schmidt-iphone-use/

      Create something that can be abused and it will be abused, and usually by the supposed 'good guys'. But at least they don't kill Americans with drones yet... whatsthatusaid?

  7. Nice future by nospam007 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Within 7 years then, the FBI will want General Motors to write a special update for them to get at some terrorist's encrypted car camera pictures and a couple of months later Russian teen hackers will crash our cars.

    1. Re:Nice future by Casualposter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Send you payment information to XXX.XXX.XXX or the car won't start.

      Hi! Nice to see your kids driving now. Boy, wouldn't it be horrible if the steering went out on the free way? Act NOW to prevent this tragedy by sending a secure payment to us.

      Good morning Police Mayor! Please ensure that proper payment to us is made or all the cars in your city will stop working correctly.

      Just a few things that can be done with complete connected cars and their automatic updates.

      --
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  8. Re:The attackers will always be ahead by ledow · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As someone who is driving a fancy "new" car (for which the primary criteria was "no extras, no gadgets, no fancy stuff, cheapest thing they have", and which ended up with touchscreen displays, in-car wifi, electronic parking brake, etc. because - well, that is considered "no extras" nowadays):

    The problem is that people (and some manufacturers!) confuse two things:

    The electronic systems that control the life-critical elements of the vehicle (brakes, airbags, even driver seat position).

    The electronic systems that play your music, your in-dash sat-nav, the software that does voice recognition, etc.

    There is no need for the two to be joined. That's the danger.

    It's not a problem that your sat-nav might use an Internet connection to pull down traffic and map updates, or even read out your emails. There's also no problem with the entertainment system going online to suck down album covers, or to update its playback software, or to pull in that new feature to support Apple CarPlay streaming or whatever.

    The problem is things like your ECU that controls the ABS and brakes being a) anywhere near or connected to the other system, b) being over-the-air updateable.

    And steering? Short of REALLY STUPID semi-automated cars (Tesla, etc), your steering shouldn't be able to be computer controlled. There's no need for that unless you want to mollycoddle STUPID AND DANGEROUS drivers who fall asleep at the wheel, to make them even more stupid and dangerous.

    Some manufacturer's get this right. Some don't. Even cruise control can be a dangerous item. Honestly, you want the car to continue to accelerate without driver input? No sensor in the world is going to make that a safe thing to do. Yet we've taken that for granted, even on huge trucks, for decades.

    But OTA updates of the airbags, steering, brakes, etc. just shouldn't be happening. There is no safe point at which to switch control mid-flow to a different piece of software. Even static and with the engine off, you could open up the brakes if it fails at switchover, and end up rolling down hills.

    The trick is to ensure that you get a sensible manufacturer here, not to deny OTA updates of things like sat-navs, entertainment systems, etc. A lot of cars isolate the two systems. Some cars actually have an "entertainment board" separate to the dashboard display, even, and it's not possible to show entertainment data on the dashboard display or car data on the touchscreen entertainment display.

    And I would hope that any sensible manufacturer signs their updates and is legally responsible for ANYTHING that happens as a result of hacking and/or bad software updates.

    The car I drive has a lever to adjust the driver's seat. There was an option for automatic, electronics, "remember who's driving" adjustment. That's dangerous. I said no.

    The car I driver has a manual key-start. In an emergency, I just turn it off. There was an option for remote-start, touch-start, etc. That's dangerous. I said no.

    The car I drive has a manual gearbox. In an emergency, I can just neutral it. There was an automatic option. I don't like the fact that in automatic cars, the car can creep forward without the driver doing anything. In a manual, that's much harder to do and much more likely to just stall the car. Even knocking a manual INTO gear is much harder to do.

    The car I drive had an option for automatic lane control. NO. Not a chance in hell. Able to fight my steering, even slightly, is not going to happen. But people obviously still buy that option.

    The car I drive had all kinds of options and there are even a handful of "standard" features that I consider could be potentially dangerous. And those I don't use. That doesn't mean they couldn't be activated, but it can't go on the Internet. And with the separation between the USB ports, OBD, the entertainment system, the dashboard display, and the control systems, it's so difficult - if not impossible - to cross the gap that I know it's p

  9. Hollywood will have to rethink its cliches by Laxator2 · · Score: 2

    How will be possible to have car chases in this case ?
    The cops will simply shut down the car remotely.
    All the movie scripts will have to be modified to exclude car chases.

    Then again, spying on people while driving is a source of additional income for the car makers, so the possibility of buying a car without this "feature" will be removed from customers.

  10. Scary new days by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I also remember when terrorists only crashed one vehicle at once.

    I'm not generally a fear-the-terrorists hawk. I think in most cases the risk is exaggerated and we have more important things to worry about. Ironically, one of those things is improving road safety, where we know that many people are killed or seriously injured every year.

    However, making something as ubiquitous and dangerous as cars susceptible to remote control actually does have the potential to create a new type of weapon of mass destruction, not by causing one huge event with mass casualties but by causing many small ones. We should be extremely careful about the safeguards implemented to prevent that kind of outcome, and I don't have much faith in the auto industry to emphasize that aspect of their product given their track record.

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  11. It's Stupid.... by Lumpy · · Score: 2

    First just give me a USB slot so I can download the update and apply it myself OUT OF BAND. no I will not pay a monthly fee for my car to have internet access, they can go fuck themselves if they think I will be paying for that.

    The problem is Car software engineers really really suck at programming and usability. The Engine guys that got the math down for the engine, steering, and suspension systems? they are decent mathematicians.. But the drooling morons that write the rest......

    USB slot next to the ODB connector, let users do it themselves out of band.

    --
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  12. great for volkswagen by Chrisq · · Score: 2

    they can send out that special update to any car in the vicinity of a government testing centre

  13. What can possibly go wr by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 2

    Ctrl-Alt-Tree

  14. BS Bingo by jimbrooking · · Score: 2

    "OTA is the only way to accomplish secure management of all of a connected car's software in a seamless, comprehensive, and fully integrated manner,"

    I win Bullshit Bingo! More meaningless buzzwords per sentence than I've seen in a while.

    And clearly anyone who confuses "secure" and "OTA" doesn't understand either concept.

  15. Automatic updates in the field by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 2

    What could go wrong? So your car gets an update in the middle of the night and when you go to leave in the morning the car won't start. If we've learned anything from Microsoft forcing updates out then there will things will go wrong in some cases. Of course cars are more uniform so there shouldn't be as many problems. However iPhones are standard too and sometimes there's a new iOS version you get a number of people with problems upgrading.

  16. Do not turn off your engine... by rnturn · · Score: 4, Funny

    "...software updates in progress. Installing update 3 of 47..."

    Bosses of the world: Please prepare for the "Sorry I'm late. GM decided to roll out critical updates during my commute."

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