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FAA Predicts 7 Million Drones By 2020 (timeslive.co.za)

An anonymous reader writes: The FAA is predicting that the number of drones in the U.S. will increase to 7 million by 2020, though they're still prohibited within 15 miles of Washington D.C. Earlier this month a drone even performed the first FAA-sanctioned drone delivery to an urban area, carrying food, water and a first-aid kit in a box attached to a rope, while a team led by a 15-year-old pilot won the $250,000 first-place prize in the first World Drone Prix in Dubai. The FAA logged 538 drone incidents in the U.S. over the last six months, according to a new report released Friday, including hundreds of incidents in which drones approached airports. But while one incident involved a drone within 20 feet of a plane, "the majority of the incidents are minor," reports The Verge, "with pilots or bystanders reporting drones that are flying in restricted airspace without necessarily endangering anyone."

56 comments

  1. Revenue ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    7 million drones, the gov't is missing out on a bit of revenue from drone licenses.

    1. Re: Revenue ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I predict there will be 700 million paper airplanes. Who gives a shit about drones -- the FAA shouldn't.

  2. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anyone serious would turn everyone upside down and see what falls out of their pockets. Republicans will do that because they don't respect rights.

  3. My bucket list by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    One of the things that's on my bucket list is to install an AI (when they become sufficiently advanced, maybe a few more years) into a drone and release it and see what it does. I think much could be learned about the nature of intelligence and possibly even human nature.

    1. Re:My bucket list by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      One of the things that's on my bucket list is to install an AI (when they become sufficiently advanced, maybe a few more years) into a drone and release it and see what it does.

      If Microsoft's recent experience with Tay is any indication, your drone will return to you within 24 hours, covered in swastikas and tweeting "Fuck me, daddy" and rap lyrics.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  4. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Their kind doesn't want things to be filmed. Things to be filmed.

  5. drones vs r/c helicopters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Reminder drones don't have pilots

    1. Re:drones vs r/c helicopters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most (all?) of those being talked about do have pilots. Also, there likely are >7M r/c aircraft existing already...

    2. Re:drones vs r/c helicopters by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Reminder drones don't have pilots

      Thanks for spoiling the fun, Dad.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  6. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't know where you come from, but that is definitely hostile.

  7. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Running from their kind is a heck of a lot less hassle from being dead.

  8. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Exactly. I have. Lot of plans, and being dead isn't one of them.

  9. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't plan on being dead any time soon. That will piss off the Republicans.

  10. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ameruca should be under quarantine to protect humanity from infection.

  11. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Everything is fine and under control" is the mantra of the republicans. Obviously that is not true.

  12. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With the recent unpleasantness we can't allow their kind to have any power.

  13. of course by NotInHere · · Score: 1

    You are lonely if you can't connect your mind to the other drones. All hail the borg queen!

    1. Re:of course by antdude · · Score: 1

      I would like to be assimilated and connected to her. ;)

      --
      Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
  14. Verifications please? by fred911 · · Score: 1

    " The FAA logged 538 drone incidents in the U.S. over the last six months, according to a new report released Friday, "

    And not ONE has been verified, no radar signature or images in controlled airspace, not ONE! Typical FUD.

    --
    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B - D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
    1. Re:Verifications please? by bloodhawk · · Score: 1

      no radar signature or images in controlled airspace.

      yeah no shit Sherlock. of course all drone pilots are nice law abiding citizens, couldn't have anything to do with the fact most drones don't register on Radar. I am sure the pilots that had near misses and took evasive action are all liars as they didn't stop to take a photo.

    2. Re: Verifications please? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it was a drone that a commercial airliner pilot could see, then it must've been one of those huge ass military drones that can carry warheads. A commercial airliner being able to see, or taking 'evasive action' against, one of those toy drones is stupid.

    3. Re: Verifications please? by Budgreen · · Score: 1

      If they're treating them like commercial aircraft now those incident reports and accident investigations will be on the NTSB website.

      --
      The greatest right given is the right to be wrong...
    4. Re: Verifications please? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      unless the pilot is blind and really bad at their job, they'll see anything larger than a chihuahua. Especially if it is hovering, or moving in the pattern that drones typically do. Quadruple-especially if they are near a city that is more likely to have people flying drones, where they are at "low" altitude, and against the backdrop of "clouds" (smog) that is common in such places.

    5. Re:Verifications please? by NewtonsLaw · · Score: 1

      So why the hell, given that they've had cockpit voice and data recorders for decades, don't modern airliners and even light-aircraft have dashcams?

      Surely it's not rocket science to fit a dashcam to an airplane and that footage may be invaluable in a crash analysis or when pilots claim to have had a "close call" with a drone.

      Seems to me that we've had these hundreds of reports but not a single shred of photographic evidence.

      Something stinks!

    6. Re: Verifications please? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because people should have everything recorded. By the way, there's been exactly one incident where the dash cam would help. We have one in the sim for the replay,a end it's exactly useless, because everything we need for the debrief is in the data and voice records. Perhaps you should learn just a little about the domain before you pronounce the experts stupid. Oh by the way, what do you think you're going to see besides 110 lbs of flight attendant on the table.

    7. Re:Verifications please? by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      So why the hell, given that they've had cockpit voice and data recorders for decades, don't modern airliners and even light-aircraft have dashcams?

      You give the dashcams too much credit. When you're flying past something about 30x10cm in size (profile view) that doesn't stand out or have brightly coloured markings at 350km/h give a couple of hundred, but not really take anything, then your dash cam may if you're very lucky produce something that looks like a smudge in a single frame of your footage.

      Which makes me wonder how many of these were actually birds in the first place.

  15. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The republicans have killed my entire world. I tried to stop them. I know more about their kind than most anyone.

  16. 77M not 7M by 2020 by turkeydance · · Score: 1

    based upon nothing more than /. posts.

  17. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My life and world is dead because of those republicans.

  18. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Republicans ruin everything. They ruin everything!

  19. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Same AC here. Republicans stopped me from having sex in public with goats. I went to someone else's farm to have sex with the horses. The Republican farmer called the Republican cops and the damn Republicans stopped that, too. Then I tried having sex with pigs at another farm. Stupid Republicans put an end to that, too. Now they're trying to ban me from having sex with sheep and humping trees in public. This proves the Republicans hate us and want us to die. To die. Their kind hates us and this proves it.

  20. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Republicans are so machine-like.

  21. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Exactly. They don't care about the people.

  22. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They have ruined HAM radio. Ruined HAM radio.

  23. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They are truly RepubliCAN'ts rather than republiCANs.

  24. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They want us to die.

  25. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    One day the Democrats will fight back. That isn't this year, but it will happen someday. Those pukianz will regret it.

  26. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They are always against fighting for progress!

  27. Re:We need more air. by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

    I think the FAA should mandate Nerf Drones. It'll just bounce off the plane, and the engines should be able to consume one with minimal damage.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  28. More Turtles hit aircraft than UAVs by fred911 · · Score: 1
    --
    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B - D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
  29. Re:We need more air. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    Every drone pilet needs to supply his or her own air for their air space

    Serious question: If I'm drunk on my ass and flying my drone, am I breaking a law? I only ask because I've got a new drone, and I've been sipping slivovitz since about 2pm.

    Am I a danger to others?

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  30. Re:We need more air. by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

    Well, if you registered yourself like you were supposed to do then you clicked on a form that said you would not fly under the influence of drugs or alcohol.

    Now, enforcement might be a bit spottier than you are used to. You are unlikely to be pulled over by the Drone Police. However, if you were stupid enough to video your behavior and post it on social media, you might get a stern letter from the FAA.

    Now, if you tried to make some money off the video, you really be in trouble.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  31. Re:We need more air. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Slivo FTW!!!

  32. Re:We need more air. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    Well, if you registered yourself [federalregister.gov] like you were supposed to do then you clicked on a form that said you would not fly under the influence of drugs or alcohol.

    This is why I'm voting Trump 2016. He'll wipe out all these liberty-killing regulations so drunk drone-flying can be great again.

    However, if you were stupid enough to video your behavior and post it on social media

    You read my mind.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  33. Target rich environment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm thinking it won't belong before the kids are taking down commercial drones with open-source kits running on $11 embedded boards in $40 drones. The kids will be betting who can take down the highest value target with the lowest cost. All filmed on go-pros and uploaded to youtube, of course.
    *Grabs popcorn*

  34. Re: This will piss off the Republicans! by KGIII · · Score: 0

    No. Vegans have ruined ham radio.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  35. lets break it down.... 6,999,000 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    pervs spying on scantily clad neighbors or girls at beaches and waterparks, and illegal surveillance by cops and 'investigators'

    1,000 legitimate uses of dam inspections, forest surveys, etc.

  36. Off by a Factor of 10 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    it wont be 77M but 77B of the damn things and the worst of it is, they're going to be self-aware. Here comes "Skynet"

    Captcha: Congest

  37. Politics as usual by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    a. considering the report from the FAA's consultants: SO....has anyone verified that a million+ drones were sold last year? I doubt it.
    b. considering the 2 largest manufacturers of drones don't report their sales nor profits? How many DID they sell? When they are cutting profit margins by cutting the retail 50% (saying to keep market share, though I think it's more of clearing inventory surplus)--we did not sell 1 million drones last year.
    c. considering everything from a paper airplane to a DoD predator is a drone... A drone in today's *public speak* is not a toy, and not a military aircraft....
    d. considering most sales are now outside the US, beyond the FAA jurisdiction... and only a 350k registered.

    Inflated w/an agenda me thinks. Much like NASA, DoD, NIH, or any other department of govt's urgency for more funding.

    1. Re:Politics as usual by NewtonsLaw · · Score: 1

      And the RIAA and MPAA will soon claim that drones have cost them billions in lost revenues -- because the money people spend on these things would be far better off spent buying albums and going to the movies.

      Let's face it ... drone owners are pirates stealing from the hungry mouths of record and film executives. Shame on them!

  38. Sports drone safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sports drones fly within inches of each other and if they hit? No big deal, its just a drone. It's small, low mass, no big issue, no loss of life. The fact you can't do that with civilian flights shows how much safer drones are.

    The problem is the manned aircraft, Cesna and others flying low in drone airspace. The drone is just a toy with low mass, the manned aircraft is the thing that needs to be banned. No drone pilot would panic if they saw another drone near them. It's not a big deal. The problem is the manned aircraft, they're far bigger, far more mass, and with a pilot.

    Jet's fly at 38000 feet, way above drones, and airport exclusion zones prevent drones and jet collisions (not that a drone presents much of a collision threat, its more fragile than a bird). So Jets are fine.

    Enough, I've seen one 'near miss' where a helicopter pilot was flying over a beach and saw a drone like 30 feet away and called it a near miss! The most dangerous thing in the sky was the helicopter flying over the beach. If the drone had falled it's small, low mass compared to him, he's the big problem.

    1. Re:Sports drone safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nuclear weapons fly within inches of each other and if they hit? No big deal, its just a nuclear weapon. It's small, low mass, no big issue, no loss of life. The fact you can't do that with civilian flights shows how much safer nuclear weapons are.

      The problem is the manned aircraft, Cessna and others flying low in nuclear weapon airspace. The nuclear weapon is just a toy with low mass, the manned aircraft is the thing that needs to be banned. No nuclear weapon pilot would panic if they saw another nuclear weapon near them. It's not a big deal. The problem is the manned aircraft, they're far bigger, far more mass, and with a pilot.

      Enough, I've seen one 'near miss' where a helicopter pilot was flying over a beach and saw a nuclear weapon like 30 feet away and called it a near miss! The most dangerous thing in the sky was the helicopter flying over the beach. If the nuclear weapon had falled it's small, low mass compared to him, he's the big problem.

  39. Re:We need more air. by tnk1 · · Score: 1

    I was wondering what period of time Trump was going to take us back to, when America was truly great, and I realized that you just hit it on the head.

    The right to keep and bear drones, shall not be infringed. When we lost the right to drink and drone, we really did enter a dark age of government overreach. And just think of if it was an uninsured illegal alien who was driving that drone. Won't somebody think of the children?