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People Often Deride Game Changing Technology as 'a Toy' (medium.com)

Steven Sinofsky, former President of the Windows Division at Microsoft, has cataloged how often game-changing technologies have been derided as toys. Some of the things he has included in the list include a PC, C programming, PC networking, GUI, color screen, AI, and internet video. He writes: As many have recognized, when inventions and innovations first appear they are often (always) labeled as "toys" or "incapable" of doing "real work" or providing "real entertainment." Of course, many new inventions don't work out the way inventors had hoped, though quite frequently it is just a matter of timing and the coming together of a variety of circumstances. It can be said that being labeled a toy is necessary, but not sufficient, to become the next big thing. This got me thinking about all the conferences, trip reports, and new products I have looked at over many years. Sure turns out that a huge number of things in my own career were labeled as toys -- not just by me, but by an industry at large. Check out the list on Medium.

4 of 282 comments (clear)

  1. Toy = Fun by gurps_npc · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If something is not fun to use, then it isn't a toy.

    If something isn't fun to use, then it is likely to never go anywhere, no matter how much people think it is important to their personal product/use.

    But merely being fun does not mean it is also useful.

    To be a game changer, it must be useful, and also fun. Then people will use it. If it isn't fun, someone will find a better way.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  2. Re:True. Definitely. Welcome to survivor bias. by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The technology wasn't ready for what Newton promised at that time.

    Which is very often the problem when people make these claims about being The Next Big Thing.

    Often the technology IS just a toy, and is a proof of concept of something which might be useful in a bunch of years.

    So, yeah, you have a seed of a kernel of a nugget of an idea which points to some Really Cool Things down the road. But your cobbled together demo which doesn't, at present, actually DO anything is a long way from changing the world, and you'll excuse us if we roll our eyes and think that you're getting a little ahead of yourself.

    I mean, the flying car has been coming Real Soon Now since, what, the mid 60s? Nuclear fusion as cheap energy? Routine trips to space for all of us?

    He, we want the cool new future. We're just seldom convinced when the guy in marketing tells us that he has it; because we pretty much know he's full of shit, and he will claim to have The Next Big Thing pretty much for everything he ever tries to tell us about.

    By about the 10th time, you stop listening.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  3. They ARE toys at first by Tablizer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    New technology usually are toys. They are immature and not road-tested. Hobbyists fortunately don't mind taking the proverbial arrows in the back to find the kinks and build/find uses for them.

    The first photographs required sitting perfectly still for 5 minutes; the first phonographs had the quality of rusted tin cans with a nose plug; the first cars broke down often and required lots of fiddling to keep going, their starter mechanisms often braking arms; the first electronic computers took more time replacing vacuum tubes than computing; the first satellites kept blowing up on the launch pad; the first PC's had crappy software, unreliable storage, and crashed often for no reason; the Newton was bulky and slow; the Lisa & Mac were too expensive for most home/biz users and lacked useful software until desktop publishing matured years after release; the first online services made molasses look fast; both Java and JavaScript were buggy and inconsistent upon release; and HTML 5 is still buggy and inconsistent. And node.JS? I still don't know what the fock that's all about, I hope to finally "get it" before I die, or maybe dying is preferable?

  4. Re:3D printers by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 5, Interesting

    By definition a tool used for a hobby is also a toy.

    Really? Who's definition is that? Does your hammer become a toy if you repair something in your house with it? You should look up the definition for the word "toy". A hobby is not "playing" with something.

    That is kind of strange since the lowest cost Stratasys, the Mojo, can do 0.178mm layers.

    It's a Stratasys uPrint Plus. In the specifications page, it says "Layer thickness: .254 mm (.010 in.) or .330 mm (.013 in.)"

    This also brings up the question of how hard is it to "properly calibrate" and how long does that celebration last? If it takes hours of setup to print one item it is a toy.

    It depends. If it takes hours of setup every time you print one item, it's just an unreliable tool, but still not a toy. If it takes hours of setup to properly calibrate once in a while, it's just normal wear and tear. We're talking about fractions of millimetres here.

    Sure, if you compare low quality prints done by a hobbyist and the same prints using similar equipment by a service the hobbyist will always be cheaper. You have to pay something for not doing it yourself. There are quite a few services that use technologies other than FDM. I was referring to companies like Shapeways and Quickparts.

    Of course the quality from higher-end 3D printers will be much better, but so will the cost. If we're talking precision alone, an FDM from Stratasys won't stand a chance against a Polyjet from the same company.

    But comparing the output quality of a Stratasys FDM vs a well-calibrated RepRap? You'd be surprised which one you'd pick and the price difference between the two.