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After 150 Years, the American Productivity Miracle Is 'Over' (qz.com)
An anonymous reader shares an article on Quartz: Economist Robert Gordon has spent his career studying what makes the US labor force one of the world's most productive. And he has some bad news. American workers still produce some of most economic activity per hour of any economy in the world. But the near-miraculous productivity growth that essentially transformed the US into one of the world's most affluent societies is permanently in the country's rearview mirror. In his new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the Northwestern University professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the American way of life was largely a one-time deal. It was driven by a flurry of technologies -- electric lights, telephones, automobiles, indoor plumbing -- that fundamentally transformed millions of American lives within a matter of decades. By comparison, Gordon argues, today's technological advancements -- Uber, Facebook, Amazon.com -- will touch the productivity of the American economy lightly -- if at all. And a combination of demographic factors, such as the aging of the US population, and sociological problems such as growing inequality and educational performance that's worsened in comparison to many other rich nations, will stymie economic growth for the foreseeable future.For those not following Gordon's work, he has been expressing these views for quite some time now. Here's
his TED talk from 2013 It shouldn't come as a surprise that many strongly disagree with Gordon's views. Kevin Kelly wrote in 2013: I think Robert Gordon is wrong about his conclusion: According to Gordon growth has stalled in the internet age. This question was first asked by Robert Solow in 1987 and Gordon's answer is that there are 6 'headwinds' six negative, or contrary forces which deduct growth from the growth due to technology in the US (Gordon reiterates he is only speaking of the US). The six 'headwinds' slowing down growth are the aging of the US population, stagnant levels of education, rising inequality, outsourcing and globalization, environmental constraints, and household and government debt. I agree with Gordon about these headwinds, particularly the first one, which he also sees as the most important. Where Gordon is wrong is his misunderstanding and underestimating of the power of technological growth before it meets these headwinds. First, as mentioned above, he underestimates the value of the innovations that the internet has brought us. They seem trivial compared to running water and electric lights, but in fact, as billions around the world show us, they are just as valuable. [...] So the 3rd Industrial Revolution is not really computers and the internet, it is the networking of everything. And in that regime we are just at the beginning of the beginning. We have only begun to connect everything to everything and to make little network minds everywhere. It may take another 80 years for the full effect of this revolution to be revealed. In the year 2095 when economic grad students are asked to review this paper of Robert Gordon and write about why he was wrong back in 2012, they will say things like "Gordon missed the impact from the real inventions of this revolution: big data, ubiquitous mobile, quantified self, cheap AI, and personal work robots. All of these were far more consequential than stand alone computation, and yet all of them were embryonic and visible when he wrote his paper. He was looking backwards instead of forward." You might also find Freakonomics' Stephen J. Dubner views on this interesting.
I see a huge false narrative. "Productivity" is a result of numerous things, and primarily related to Freedom. Yet I don't see this person mention Government regulation and usurpation of individual rights anywhere. He does mention wage disparity, but that is due to Government activity, not the Market. The educational problems are another issue where the Government has taken over and failed miserably.
But hey, more Government will surely come to the rescue and save us from that other Government waste and abuse.
*nothing directed at you, except the agreement with your statement*
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
That's best done via threats, empty promises and reducing the number of available jobs while increasing the number of people.
Please don't vote, because I suspect you'll be voting for Bernie, who views success as failure, and failures as success.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
How anyone can vote for him after watching that is beyond me.
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
Socialism leads to bread lines, and only rich can afford food. Um maybe Socialism leads to everyone being poor?
Oh right, because NEXT time, we'll have all the bugs out of socialism
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
You blew it.
When you report to a VP you *are* expected to pony up and pitch in. That's what reimbursements are for.
You have two things in life, excuses or results. I can see which you chose.
I also doubt you got there with only 5 years under your belt.
~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.