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North Korea Launches Missile From Submarine (cnn.com)
schwit1 shares breaking news from CNN: North Korea has fired what is believed to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said Saturday. The missile was fired at 6:30 p.m. local time (5:30 a.m. ET), South Korean officials said, and appears to have flown for about 30 km (about 19 miles) -- well short of the 300 km (roughly 186 miles) that would be considered a successful test... Pyongyang carried out its fourth nuclear test in January. It said it succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads to fit on medium-range ballistic missiles -- which U.S. intelligence analysts say is probably true.
I used to think that there was a near 100% certainty that a nuclear attack on the United States would result in a near immediate overwhelming nuclear response, the oft-described "glassing over" of any country that attempted a nuclear attack on the United States.
Lately, though, I'm more worried that our leadership is inclined to look at a small-scale attack on a US city as an acceptable strategic loss in a larger chess match of diplomacy and posturing, with endless strategizing, with the relentless presence of lawyers generating briefs to justify any kind of US response in a sea of legalism. We seem incapable of prosecuting military campaigns under the rubric of warfare, only in carefully measured and fully structured
I think the DPRK really would rather not get into a nuclear conflict with the US, but I do think that trying to get the US mired in a conventional conflict would be considered a positive strategic outcome.
DPRK is like a giant warehouse of every Soviet/Chinese conventional weapon system made since the 1950s and they've had 50-odd years to dig in everywhere. It's not that the US couldn't defeat the North Koreans, but doing so in any conventional way would require a massive, grinding and costly application of conventional military forces.
DPRK would probably do a lot of damage with artillery to Seoul, take some initial heavy losses and then with Chinese involvement engage in long rounds of truces and negotiations designed to stymie a military response that would do any serious damage and make the US and RoK appear as aggressors.
I am not a Naval buff, but NK apparently lost a submarine at sea a few months ago. I wonder if that was a failed test. Do any enthusiasts know whether NK has hidden drydocks to work on submarines, and whether NK's subs generally have the ability to launch missles?