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John Kasich To Drop Out, Leaving Trump as GOP Nominee (vox.com)
Multiple outlets are reporting that Ohio Gov. John Kasich plans to suspend his run to be the GOP presidential nominee. The move, if happens, would make Donald Trump the presumptive nominee for the GOP. The report comes hours after Kasich abruptly cancelled a planned press conference (could be paywalled; alternate source) in Virginia on Wednesday morning. LA Times reports: Kasich, the Ohio governor, had pledged to continue campaigning as a Trump alternative who could deny the billionaire needed delegates. But on Wednesday, he canceled a news conference in Washington and planned an announcement for later in the day in Columbus, Ohio, to drop out. Vox has more details.
And to linking to an alternate source. Kudos to the editors.
I guess the question now is whether Trump will be willing to tone down the rhetoric, make some comprehensive, real-world arguments on important stuff like foreign policy, and basically be more presidential. Also, he'll have to pick an amazing VP candidate and show himself as open to selecting people who can fill in the experience gaps he has.
Like her or hate her, Clinton was the Secretary of State. Anyone actually watching the political side of this (debates, etc.) and not voting based on stump speeches and commercials can see there's an experience gap, and I think that'll be clear in a general election debate unless Trump does some serious studying between now and then.
All in all, a fun political season is coming. You've got the establishment that wants things as-is, angry workers who have no jobs because they've been offshored, outsourced or automated, angry conservatives who want smaller government, and angry liberals from the Sanders camp who want more. Personally, I'd be amazed if Trump could pull off a trade war with the rest of the world. Coming from the Rust Belt, it would be great to see factories running 3 shifts of thousands of workers again, but I doubt that can be pulled off.
He and Bernie Sanders are the only ones even CLAIMING they'll take on H1-B's, outsourcing, and big business. Is it likely that Trump will actually follow through with this? Nope. Is it likely that he's going to represent the same interests of his rich business friends just like ever other politician? Yep.
But is there any other choice that's even POSSIBLY going to stand up for the little guy? Not on the Republican side.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Im a liberal/progressive/whateverTheyCallMeThisWeek. Im reluctantly supporting Hillary. Bernie "wins" only if he denies certain Democratic voters as illegitimate. The fact that the groups he needs to deny tend to be black should make you cringe a bit. Besides, his platform is too unclear, and depends on "and then a miracle happens" a bit too much (yeah, i'll get flamed for all that, but it's my opinion). Hillary doesn't promise the moon, but she's more likely to get her agenda done.
But Trump - no one really figured he'd get here. Im a bit wary. What people haven't realized up to now is it's not about Trump it's about the voters. The fact that we have a large number of people voting for Trump with no experience and no real plan (I bet Trump would hire a dude off the street with no experience but yuuuge hair for CEO in a second) just because of anger. It's making me rethink our electorate. Could he win? I thought there's no chance he'd be here. I thought that once we got away from Trump and the 16 dwarves where Trump dominated the headlines we'd back away from Trump. But no, he was strengthened once he got close. I really wonder.
what if no one get's 270?
That's an extremely unlikely scenario based on the 2016 electoral map, which is identical to 2012 and 2008. Hillary needs 28 electoral votes to win. Trump will need 168 electoral votes to win.
And here's the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida's 29 and you get 271. Game over.
The Republican map — whether with Trump, Cruz or the ideal Republican nominee (Paul Ryan?) as the standard-bearer — is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/
You don't understand. A pardon is irrelevant for the campaign. It could even be worse than an indictment. It's not about whether she goes to jail or not, it's whether she can get elected with her credibility broken by an indictment which would then have been nullified by a pardon, without answering the actual charge.
And it would prove the charge that she will have gotten away with something that nobody who worked for her could have gotten away with, just because she is who she is. A pardon would be as close to political suicide as she could get without actually going to jail.
It is crazy I know, but would you put it past Trump?
Cruz and Kasich (and the others while they were still in) were playing iterative rounds of something resembling the Prisoner's Dilemma. Choosing to stay in the race increased their odds of being the nominee by a large factor _if_ there was a contested convention. However staying in the race, and thus dividing the non-Trump votes, also increased the odds that Trump would win outright and there _wouldn't_ be a contested convention.
If one of them had decided to drop out much earlier the other one might have been able to stop Trump from getting enough votes to lock in the nomination and steal it away from him at the convention. (This makes it slightly different from regular Prisoner's Dilemma in that cooperating involves the two players choosing different actions.) Given that going by the number of delegates the one who probably should have dropped out early was Kasich, it's kind of pathetic that he drug his heels long enough to quit _right_ after Cruz. Good job you two! Your arrogant electoral mutual suicide pact has all but guaranteed a Trump nomination!
(I wonder if there were any backroom negotiations going on to try and convince Kasich to drop out in exchange for a vice presidential slot? That's not something that's usually done but this was a pretty unusual case.)
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