Tesla Plans To Produce 500,000 Electric Cars In 2018, 1 Million In 2020 (reuters.com)

"Tesla Motors Inc said it was stepping up production plans for its upcoming Model 3 mass-market sedan and would build a total of 500,000 all-electric vehicles in 2018, two years ahead of schedule, but warned that spending will ramp up in tandem," reports Reuters. Tesla said capital spending would rise about 50% more than originally planned this year, to around $2.25 billion. Producing 500,000 vehicles in 2018 will be no easy task, especially considering the company is only on track to deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 electric vehicles this year. In addition to producing 500,000 electric vehicles in 2018, Elon Musk also said the company expects to produce nearly 1 million vehicles in 2020. These are certainly ambitious goals, even for a company that had the 'biggest one-week launch of any product ever.'

Comments

Re:Never

[Anonymous Coward]

Okay, smart guy.

Tesla currently has Supercharger facilities (which I'm using as a convenient proxy for "countries it sells its vehicles to") in Australia, Western Europe, China, Japan, the USA, and Canada. Japan, in particular, has very strict regulations on cars that mean that its car fleet is generally very new; it's rare to see a car older than eight to ten years old on Japanese roads, and there would be a huge appeal in that country to buying an electrical vehicle, thanks to their stringent emissions controls. I'd expect the Model 3 to be a significant part of that country's market, early in the game.

Globally, car sales are over 74 million per annum. One million vehicles would represent about 1.35% of global vehicle sales - not an easy target to reach, but I think there's a reasonable chance they can do it, if they stick to a relatively conservative and well-understood (from an engineering point of view) design. The Model X's doors are a perfect example of how not to do it - sure, over time, they'll get better, but for a mass market vehicle, you want to keep it simple, keep it familiar, and thereby minimise the risks to the ramp-up. (That said, as the technology in the Model X is bedded down, it will probably find its way into other vehicles. I just don't think that the early model 3s would be the right place for it.)

At this point I am ready for everything

[mapkinase]

I'll drive a car running on the blood of freshly killed babies if I won't drive it.

Re:Cars, cars, cars

[AaronW]

Those issues are rapidly diminishing in many areas. Charging stations are popping up all over. I've been driving my Model S since 2013, and the number of places I can't take it is rapidly shrinking. I go on an annual camping trip in the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains and this will be the first year I won't need to borrow a gasoline car for the trip since the main highway is now covered (highway 395). As for service centers, those also are popping up in many places, though some states are actively trying to prevent them.

My experience with Tesla service is night and day compared to my experience with Toyota. Toyota always tried to push a bunch of crap on me. They'd try and push blinker fluid if they thought they could get away with it. I'd have to fight with them when my car had common well-known problems. With Tesla there's never any question and they address the problem. My car has had more issues than the newer ones since it is a low VIN number but most of those issues were squeaks and rattles, which is difficult for any manufacturer to get right, especially with a brand new model from a new company out of a new factory. Hell, with Tesla I don't need AAA for towing since Tesla's service is better since there is no limit on distance or the number of times you can use it. I have had to use it once, and it was due to a tire that I bought through Tirerack and had installed by a third party developing a bubble in the sidewall. There were no questions nor was I billed for a tow home where I could go to my local dealer for a replacement tire since they discount the tires.

For those who don't live near a service center, they will come to you for an extra $100 fee.

All one has to do is look at Tesla's upcoming 2016 map of chargers to see how quickly they're planning on expanding it. Tesla has already said that they plan to double the number of charging spots by the end of the year and I expect similar growth in 2017. The superchargers are the big game changer for Tesla. Nobody else can boast having an EV which can be driven across the country without spending huge amounts of time charging. Last September I had no problems or significant delays driving from the Bay Area to Seattle. It took me 2 days and charging only added 3-4 hours to the entire trip. The time often wasn't wasted either. I used it to stretch my legs and grab a bite to eat. If I were driving a gas car I'd also take 2 days for this drive since I'm not about to drive 14-16 hours straight.