Will Self-Driving Cars Clog Our Highways? (go.com)

An anonymous reader writes: While self-driving cars may be safer and cheaper, the Associated Press warns they could also create massive traffic congestion. "The problem, say transportation researchers, is that people will use them too much." One auto industry expert predicts that self-driving cars will increase travel by those over 65, as well as those between 16 and 24, resulting in at least 2 trillion extra miles being driven each year. In addition, "Airlines also may face new competition as people choose to travel by car at speeds well over 100 mph between cities a few hundred miles apart instead of flying," and faster commute times could mean more urban sprawl as workers may spread into cheaper neighborhoods that are further from the city center.

Comments

Not thinking big picture.

[_KiTA_]

These people aren't thinking big picture. Forget a fleet of self owned self-driving cars. Yes, self-car ownership is a staple of American life right now, but it's death knell has been sounded.

Imagine a fleet of hundreds of self driving buses, vans, et cetera. Now cross that with Uber -- request a ride, and you get put on a list of stops where the bus is going to go. Picture having to wait no more than 15 minutes for a self-driving public transportation vehicle to take you anywhere in your city, with algorithms picking the most efficient route to get who needs a ride, when they need it. Who is going to buy their own car when you can just get a public transportation pass and go anywhere?

Hell, what government is going to allow people to drive their own cars when self-driving vehicles can drive for them? And when even self-driving self-owned cars turn out to be a detriment to the self-driving public transportation, welp...

We don't consider horses when designing modern roadways, outside of some very specific scenarios. We're entering an era where considering manually driven cars are going to become a similar relic of the past.

Re:may might predicts

[currently_awake]

Parking is the biggest issue. When you go downtown, you can't find a parking spot. But that's not an issue with self driving cars, you just tell it to circle the block at low speed for 4 hours while you're in the mall. Now imagine everyone doing that downtown.

summary contradicts itself

[raymorris]

The summary also indicates that it would likely REDUCE congestion, at least in some areas.

Suppose right now my 20-mile commute takes 35 minutes, so for 35 minutes I'm causing part of the congestion. I'm in your way from 8:00 to 8:35. The summary says self-driving cars will likely be able to drive much faster (perhaps in what used to be HOV lanes). If my car goes faster, that means the 20-mile commute takes less time. I'd only be on the road(and in your way) for 20 minutes rather than 35 minutes.

Re:may might predicts

[JoeMerchant]

All good points, but the elephant in this particular room is unexpected emergent behavior of a large coordinated system. If SDCs are centrally controlled, there's a single point of failure that will make EVERYONE late for work at unexpected intervals. If they are more distributed in their control systems, interesting (not in a good way) interactions will develop that cause unexpected system failures and disruptions.

Overall, I expect SDCs will improve the current state of automotive transport, but I don't expect them to be the panacea that everyone likes to paint a picture of.

Re:may might predicts

[fluffernutter]

I don't live in a place with Uber. If I did, I wouldn't use them; I'm not convinced their drivers are vetted enough to be safe. Also I wouldn't want to encourage them in their failure to find real jobs. Or clog the roads.

Re:may might predicts

[Ol Olsoc]

You won't want self-driving cars to circle the block wasting juice. Each ride will be a separate rental from your chosen company's fleet.

This should be marked insightful - but you'll probably be pilloried. Think Uber, now think Uber without drivers. Now think vehicles being dispatched via the internet via an application on your smartphone.

Now think a driverless car version of surge pricing, as well with with a hierarchy of plans, where the more oyu pay, the better, and quicker service you'll get.

The legions of slashdot users that think they are going to all have their personal driverless vehicle are not thinking this through. As driverless vehicles take over, the only people left that know how to drive will be in rural areas.

Re:may might predicts

[Gussington]

You can summon your ride as you sit down for breakfast and by the time you are done it will be there. If you are out at dinner, you order the car when you get the check and it's there pretty much when you are ready for it.

So in my family of four, we could in theory order four robot cars (we each work and go to school at different locations). In my use case, that makes 4 times as many vehicles on the road. A road that is already over capacity today.
I think you missed the point of TFA

So which is it?

[Mal-2]

So which one are they worried about?

People use them too much and traffic grinds to a halt?

Or people choose to use them instead of flying because they can go over 100 mph on highways?

It's not going to work both ways, guys.