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Why Don't Scientists Kill The 'Demon In The Freezer'?

HughPickens.com writes: Smallpox was one of the most devastating diseases humanity has ever faced, killing more than 300 million people in the 20th century alone. But thanks to the most successful global vaccination campaign in history, the disease was completely eradicated by 1980. By surrounding the last places on earth where smallpox was still occurring -- small villages in Asia and Africa -- and inoculating everyone in a wide circle around them, D. A. Henderson and the World Health Organization were able to starve the virus of hosts. Smallpox is highly contagious, but it is not spread by insects or animals. When it is gone from the human population, it is gone for good. But Errol Moris writes in the NYT that Henderson didn't really eliminate smallpox. In a handful of laboratories around the world, there are still stocks of smallpox, tucked away in one freezer or another. In 2014 the CDC announced that vials containing the deadly virus had been discovered in a cardboard box in a refrigerator located on the National Institutes of Health (NIH) campus in Bethesda, Maryland. How can you say it's eliminated when it's still out there, somewhere? The demon in the freezer.

Some scientists say that these residual stocks of smallpox should not be destroyed because some ruthless super-criminal or rogue government might be working on a new smallpox, even more virulent than existing strains of the virus. We may need existing stocks to produce new vaccines to counteract the new viruses. Meanwhile, opponents of retention argue that there's neither need nor practical reason for keeping the virus around. In a letter to Science Magazine published in 1994, the Nobel laureate David Baltimore wrote, "I doubt that we so desperately need to study smallpox that it would be worth the risk inherent in the experimentation." It all comes down to the question of how best to protect ourselves against ourselves. Is the greater threat to humanity our propensity for error and stupidity, or for dastardly ingenuity?

22 of 287 comments (clear)

  1. Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It could be highly useful in future medical research, and the damage it could cause if it gets back into the wild would be minimal.

    1. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The likelihood of a large outbreak is small, because the most likely exposure would be to a lab tech in a 1st world country that has a sample. It's effectively contained and has been for nearly 40 years.

      As for it's usefullness, I have no idea other than making more vaccine in the event the known samples are not the only samples. But, it's precisely that we don't know what it could be useful for that we shouldn't destroy it.

    2. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Man, you haven't seen any movies at all, have you?

    3. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Agreed. In practice, viruses have a tendency to never go away. Just take a look at the people who have been "cured" of ebola. Months or years later, some of them start showing symptoms again, because the virus found a reservoir inside an eyeball or some other random part of the body where the immune system is not as effective.

      Also, the claim that smallpox can only infect humans is naïve. It can, in fact, infect other primates. So the fact that it is no longer found in humans does not mean that it can't come back on its own. It is unlikely, but not impossible. In fact, it is highly likely that the initial smallpox epidemics were caused by the virus making its way into humans from some other animal species. If it happened once, it could happen twice....

      So the assertions upon which the author built the argument against smallpox are somewhat dubious, IMO. With that said, that doesn't mean that the conclusions are wrong. The important question is whether we can continue to manufacture smallpox vaccines indefinitely without the actual virus. If the answer is yes (and I believe that it is), then destroying the most likely way for the virus to end up spreading among the population does make sense.

      Any recurrence of the virus, whether natural or artificial, would either be different from the known smallpox strains in meaningful ways or it wouldn't. If it is different, then the current smallpox virus probably won't be of any real benefit in developing a vaccine for the new variant; they would need samples of the new virus instead. If it isn't different, then the existing vaccine will "just work", and we don't need the current smallpox virus.

      Either way, the only plausible future use for smallpox would be as a biological weapon, and IMO, we owe it to future generations to destroy it.

      And as I post this, I'm struggling to avoid laughing. Because of a bit of over-editing, that last sentence almost ended with "... and IMO, we owe it to future generations to do so." Yikes!

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    4. Re:Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by meerling · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Actually, there is no known medical use for it anymore, and I do believe they've completely sequenced it and could recreate it if that were ever necessary for some reason.
      As to minimal damage in the wild? That's B.S.. Have you been vaccinated against smallpox in the last decade? Probably not as routine vaccinations were stopped in 1972, and unfortunately the high level of resistance it gives only lasts 4-7 years. Nobody really knows what the resistance level, if any, is after 20 years, much less than 45+ years.

      We currently don't have stockpiles of the vaccine, and as such, if there was an outbreak, it would run rampant long before enough vaccine to matter had been made. There would be a lot of dead people. Ok, you say, let's just stock up on it ahead of time. Well, there's a couple of issues with that. First, it might expire, so you'd have to keep making it constantly. I don't know what it's actual shelf life is, but vaccines of any kind aren't exactly canned peas and some of them are positively short time get it while it's fresh only.
      Then there's your second big problem. Cost. You'd have an expensive production facility, and storage, and security, and you'd have to keep replacing the stock once you'd built it up enough, and probably some other things you'd have to pay for. Now mind you that this is all for a virus that is dead in the wild, and has very limited lab samples remaining. That's like making 14k gold Tasmanian Tiger repellents for everyone in Australia! It's a very expensive exercise for something that's about as likely as a meteor strike at this point.

      But it gets worse. One of the big issues with all vaccines is they work best before you get exposed. (Many only help if you've had them before you've been exposed.) I've seen some stuff saying that the smallpox vaccine takes close to a week before it's protecting you. So that means you're going to have to be vaccinating the population, and revaccinating them about every 7 years to keep the immunity levels high. DO YOU HAVE AN IDEA HOW EXPENSIVE AND FREAKING DIFFICULT THAT IS THESE DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANTI-VAXXERS?
      Yeah, we can't get them to vaccinate for Polio and Whooping Cough, two other diseases that were on the fast track to oblivion before those morons made a whole new generation of potential victims and cut down the herd immunity system.

      The scientists that had the samples had a death date set. There was going to be a celebration afterwards. Then some fools pushed through an injunction to prevent the total and final extinction of smallpox.

      By the way, if you don't know, the longer something is around, and the more it's fooled with, the more likely there will be an accident. Smallpox is currently sitting in locked freezers and they don't even like to move the samples around. What do you think will happen when they have to start culturing large quantities of it to start making vaccines? Yep, it's probably going to get loose. (I don't know their current setup, my info on their storage was before they started making limited quantities of the vaccine for certain 'key personnel' in 200X (two thousand something).

      If you want to find out more, there are plenty of science articles, even some real video journalism and the like on it, but please avoid the flaky sites out there, especially the conspiracy nut dumps.

    5. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by dwillden · · Score: 5, Informative

      The problem with this view is the assumption that the only sources are stockpiles held in 1st world labs. A few years ago the US Military decided, for reasons never publicized, to resume vaccinations of personnel deploying to certain regions of the world. If the only stores are in known 1st world labs under high level containment protocols why would they have started doing that?

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    6. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Opportunist · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's not interesting, that's logical. If you're in a third world country where actual diseases run rampart and you SEE first hand what diseases do to your neighbor's kids, you want yours vaccinated. Against everything, and then some. Mercury? Aluminum? Fuck that shit, plug that needle in, doc!

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    7. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by dwillden · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But that is contrary to the official view that small pox was eradicated in the wild in the early 70's. In other words it's supposedly not in the wild in other parts of the world. It was eradicated Globally, not just in the 1st world. The concern is that of the two known stockpiles the Russians are not known for maintaining strict security and it is feared that samples have been stolen and are in the hands of rogue nations or terror organizations.

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    8. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Lumpy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That and most anti vaxxers are dumb as a box of rocks. The IQ of those types is very very low.

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    9. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by squiggleslash · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I wish that were true. Never underestimate the stupidity of smart people. Especially when they know they're smart, so assume they know more than they really do.

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    10. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by dwillden · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Very specific, as it's a rather different process than most vaccinations, it's not an injection. They scratch your skin deep enough to draw blood and apply the vaccine to the wound, this then gets to fester for about a week leaving a small scar. Every other one of the dozens of vaccinations I got over my career were injections.

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    11. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This is not completely true. In fact, there are large numbers of people in the third world resisting vaccination because people got polio from the oral vaccine.

      [citation needed]
      From the WHO : http://www.who.int/features/qa...
      "What is vaccine-derived polio?"
      "Since 2000, more than 10 billion doses of OPV [Oral Polio Vaccine] have been administered to nearly 3 billion children worldwide..... resulting in fewer than 760 VDPV [vaccine-derived poliovirus] cases "
      I make that 0.00003%. I'm not particularly scared, and anyone who is is ignorant

    12. Re: Truly Epically Dumb to Destroy It by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Informative

      Smallpox vaccine is NOT made from smallpox. It is made from cowpox. In fact, the word "vaccine" is Latin for "from cows".

      There may be good scientific reasons to keep the smallpox samples, but making vaccines is not one of them.

  2. The summary answers the question by quantaman · · Score: 4, Informative

    In 2014 the CDC announced that vials containing the deadly virus had been discovered in a cardboard box in a refrigerator located on the National Institutes of Health (NIH) campus in Bethesda, Maryland. How can you say it's eliminated when it's still out there, somewhere?

    Even if you eliminate all the stocks you know about there's still the stocks you don't know about, if it ever gets out it probably came from a forgotten sample.

    I don't think it's a huge deal either way but if we want to understand how a truly nasty virus works then you can't really do it without a really nasty virus to study.

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    1. Re:The summary answers the question by jopsen · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yeah, besides... How will destroying all known samples prevent the case of "cardboard box in a refrigerator" that we don't know about...
      If that storage method was a surprise, the clearly efforts to burn all stored samples wouldn't have included that one..


      Obviously, though we really should increase control, regulation and security around these things.

  3. Why Don't Scientists Kill The Demon In The Freezer by Eloking · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why Don't Scientists Kill The 'Demon In The Freezer'?

    Because this isn't Resident Evil or some stupid Hollywood movie?

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    Elok
  4. Don't need it for just-in-case by clovis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Some scientists say that these residual stocks of smallpox should not be destroyed because some ruthless super-criminal or rogue government might be working on a new smallpox, even more virulent than existing strains of the virus. We may need existing stocks to produce new vaccines to counteract the new viruses

    This is the one I have to wonder about.
    The vaccine for smallpox is not smallpox, It is vaccinia which is closely related to cowpox.
    If someone releases smallpox and you need to vaccinate, then you still don't need to have any smallpox.

    If someone makes a new type of smallpox and releases it, then you want the new smallpox to develop a defense against and test and now you have it from the infected people.
    And it seems unlikely that the old smallpox (deadly) would be used to make a vaccine against any new smallpox, but I admit the possibility.

    Smallpox is a member of the poxviridae family. If you need a virus like smallpox to fool around with in your lab, there are 28 genera and 69 species of pox.

    On the other hand, smallpox is not the only disease we have eradicated.
    Rinderpest is the other. Rinderpest is closely related to measles and measles probably evolved from rinderpest.
    Stocks of Rinderpest remain, but rinderpest vaccine is made from a rinderpest virus variant, so it makes sense that we would keep some of that for just in case.

  5. There are some things we simply should not destroy by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is one of them...

    Now that being said... stockpiles of the live virus should not be kept very many places and there needs to be a "destroy plan" in the event these locations become compromised. (such as war, civil unrest, the end of the world, etc.)

    Perhaps in the US, UK, France, Russia, and China... Each nation can have stored samples of the virus in known locations under guard.

    For the same reason we'll never really get rid of nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, or anything else, there is a greater than non-zero value to having them. But we don't need "lots" of them.

  6. Re:Genocide... when's it OK? by johannesg · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A virus is about as 'alive' as the average piece of computer software, and when it comes down to the choice of the death of hundreds of people, or the virus, the choice should be easy enough. That some people apparently have so much trouble with their moral compass that they believe there is in fact some kind of ethical trade off here scares me.

    Not that size matters: I'm also happily in favor of fully eradicating other diseases and parasites, including multicellular ones. Anything that only causes untold grief and misery, and has no benefit other than its own miserable existence, I have no compunction removing from the planet.

  7. Re:Think about it by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I have long thought that it would be a bad idea to eliminate the last samples, even thought exposure to it would be devastating to anyone getting infected from one of them. The bug is indeed very dangerous, but I harbor no illusions that by destroying the last two attested samples (one at the CDC in Atlanta, one in Russia) we could be truly sure we got them all. There is an unknown--and unknowable--number of other samples of the bug in the world. If we had no known samples available, we'd surely have even greater problems getting a cure if we had destroyed the attested samples.

    The thing is, the existing vaccines aren't even derived from smallpox. They're derived from a related virus that isn't fatal. We don't need smallpox to exist just to produce vaccines unless somebody genetically engineers a modified smallpox virus that doesn't contain any of the same markers as cowpox, monkeypox, or vaccinia. And if somebody does that, the odds are very high that A. having a sample of smallpox won't help in creating the vaccine either, and B. the organization that someday creates that modified virus wouldn't have been able to get their hands on it if we had destroyed all the samples in a timely manner instead of keeping it around just in case we need to engage in biowarfare....

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  8. Archive its DNA by tonywestonuk · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Then zap it. They can already create viruses from scratch anyhow - https://www.newscientist.com/a... So, just dump its DNA sequence to a tar file, and then snuff it out. That simple. And no moral dilemas about genocide because well, we can always tar xvf smallpox.tar, if we need to.

    1. Re:Archive its DNA by Gilgaron · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It'll take you years to get from a gene sequence back to a functional virus with which to build a research program to look into the 'new variant' or whatever concern made growing smallpox again worthwhile. And there'd still be some doubt about if you got it right since some virus particles grab important proteins from the host cell that aren't encoded in their own genome.