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Forbes Just Cut Its Estimate of Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes's Net Worth From $4.5 Billion To Zero (qz.com)

It wasn't long agon when Elizabeth Holmes, the founder and CEO of Theranos, was regarded as one of the U.S.'s most successful female entrepreneurs with Forbes estimating her net work to be $4.5 billion. Thanks to all the evidence that Theranos' technology is largely a gimmick and false advertising, the publication has revised that figure to essentially zero, reports Quartz. From the report: Last year, Forbes pegged its value at $9 billion, based on the sale of stakes to investors. Since that lofty estimate, Theranos has been battered by bad news (paywalled; alternate source), starting with reports in the Wall Street Journal in October that its tests were inaccurate. That triggered an inquiry from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which proposed banning Holmes from the industry. Forbes went back to its slide rule and, after talking to venture capitalists and industry experts, recalculated Theranos' value at $900 million, based on its intellectual property and money it has already raised. "At such a low valuation, Holmes' stake is essentially worth nothing," Matt Herper writes. That's because Theranos' other investors own preferred shares, and since Holmes owns common shares, they would get paid first if the company were forced to liquidate.

13 of 215 comments (clear)

  1. Re:900,000,000 != 0 by bws111 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The $900M is the value of the COMPANY, not her net worth. They figure the only way to get value out of the company is to liquidate it, and she would get almost none of the proceeds. So HER net worth is $0.

  2. Re:900,000,000 != 0 by squiggleslash · · Score: 4, Informative

    The argument is that she owns ordinary shares, and while those shares might be kinda sorta worth $100-200M on paper (I can't be bothered to do the calculations...) the reality is she can't sell them (the price would tank if she tried) and if the company goes bankrupt, and Forbes thinks it's very, very, likely it will, then as an ordinary shareholder she'll be last in line to get paid. Bondholders, preferred stock holders, and even the credit card company are ahead of ordinary shareholders when it comes to being paid back after a company is liquidated.

    --
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  3. Re:900,000,000 != 0 by RavenLrD20k · · Score: 4, Informative

    $900M isn't Holmes' net worth; it's the entire net worth of Theranos as a company. Last line of the summary is a bit confusing but what it's saying is that if the company were forced to liquidate all current assets, Holmes would be among the last to get paid. Other investors in the company with preferred shares would be paid first. By the time it gets to the point where Holmes could legally be paid from the liquidation, it's more than likely there'd be nothing left for her to get.

  4. Re:Economy built on pipedreams by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Whatever happened to the value of good honest labour?

    Replaced by 3rd world commodity labor. Soon to be replaced by robots.

    --
    "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
  5. Due Diligence... anyone, anyone, Bueller? by Morpeth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What I don't get is did no one bother to see if her so-called game changing blood tests actually WORKED? I get the impression, no

    I'm just kind of dumbfounded that no one thought to check with some actual PhDs, MDs, researchers, etc.

    --

    'The unexamined life is not worth living' - Socrates
  6. Re:More bullshit by jratcliffe · · Score: 5, Informative

    Yeah total bullshit.

    After all, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services haven't proposed pulling Theranos's license (and hence qualification to do tests that can be reimbursed by Medicare and Medicaid), and haven't proposed banning the Theranos founders from running a lab for two years. Oh, wait, they did. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04...

    After all, the company didn't just throw out all the results done on their machines in 2014 and 2015. Oh, wait, they have. http://www.wsj.com/articles/th...

  7. Re:Sexism! by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I have no common cause with the Libertarian neanderthals around here that clearly despise and fear women, but in this case, Theranos looks like little more than a scam. But I wouldn't like that to the CEO being a female, since there are no lack of male-run scam outfits who are briefly market darlings before it's revealed that the company's core technology is a load of unmitigated bullshit.

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  8. Re:More bullshit by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The original article was essentially bullshit

    If true, then Theranos could quickly debunk their BS by publicly demonstrating their technology in front of credible experts. Please explain why they haven't done that.

  9. Re:Sexism! by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 4, Informative

    More likely it's the fact that Silicon Valley is a liberal/SJW stronghold, where investors will happily throw money at any company with a female CEO.

    As we say in California, what are smoking and where can I get some?

    http://valleywag.gawker.com/silicon-valley-named-13th-best-conservative-city-in-ame-1458838034

  10. Mass Media coverage with no Peer Review by bargainsale · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The dead giveaway on Theranos is the splurging of publicity in mass mainstream media without anything at all published in relevant peer-reviewed specialist journals.

    As soon as anyone asks why they would do that, the answer is obvious. You'd think.

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    Aberrations have appeared in my destiny prognostication engine!
  11. Re:Sexism! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    More likely it's the fact that Silicon Valley is a liberal/SJW stronghold, where investors will happily throw money at any company with a female CEO.

    As we say in California, what are smoking and where can I get some?

    http://valleywag.gawker.com/silicon-valley-named-13th-best-conservative-city-in-ame-1458838034

    GAWKER?!?!?!?!

    Yeah, that's a trustworthy source.

    Jesus H. Fucking Christ, you scraped right through the bottom of the barrel.

  12. Re:900,000,000 != 0 by David_Hart · · Score: 5, Informative

    She owns 50% of the company. This is the poster child for diversification of the portfolio.Theranos is private so the stock is only as valuable as the next private market buyer will pay.

    Preferred investors get paid first. She only has common stock. So, nothing left for her no matter how much of the company she owns.

  13. Re:Economy built on pipedreams by DarkOx · · Score: 4, Interesting

    She arrived early, stayed late, and worked through the weekends. Her tech may have failed, but it wasn't because of a lack of hard work.

    You know that is actually characteristic behavior of financial fraudsters. They avoid delegating large numbers of essential tasks because they don't want others seeing the books and asking questions. They like to be the first there and last to leave to make sure nobody is nosing around too. Finally they like taking care of certain transactions with third parties over weekends and after hours were things get done 'out of process' and it may be possible to evade some other normal checks and controls.

    Its actually considered a good anti-fraud practice to have anyone who handles accounting or inventory to take a least one mandatory five consecutive business day vacation each year! That way someone else has to perform at least some of their job functions for a time and there is a second pair of eyes on things. It also may cause some schemes where things have to be kept in constant motion like 'lapping' to fall apart.

    A fraud investigator would consider her 'work ethic' here a reason to be more suspicious not less.

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