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Smartphone Sales Growth Will Drop To Single Digits In 2016, Says Gartner (techcrunch.com)

Posted by BeauHD on from the what-goes-up-must-come-down dept.

An anonymous reader writes from a report via TechCrunch: According to a report from Gartner, smartphone sales growth is expected to shrink from 14.4 percent growth in 2015 to just 7 percent in 2016, with only 1.5 billion smartphone units expected to ship globally this year. Gartner notes the market grew 73 precent in 2010, which was a high-point for the industry. One of the main reasons why the growth is shrinking is because consumers have less of a reason to upgrade their devices each year. Gartner notes that new devices offer only incremental upgrades over existing hardware and carriers have been moving away from subsidizing upgrades. The lifetime of a premium smartphone is between 2.2 and 2.5 years in emerging markets. The biggest smartphone growth is expected in India, where an estimated 139 million smartphones will be sold this year alone. The industry is growing 29.5 percent year-over-year in India. As for China, Gartner expects "little growth" in the region in the next five years calling it a "saturated yet highly competitive" market. Last week, it was reported that Microsoft is selling about 1,500 of its patents to Chinese device maker Xiaomi to build a 'long-term partnership.'

78 comments

  1. single digits by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    YAWN, call me when it goes negative.

    Oh wait, I won't have a phone..

  2. Unsurprising by Noble713 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course sales growth / adoption rates have to level off: you can't sell a billion phones every year to a population of ~7 billion indefinitely. Much like desktops before them, smartphones have reached the point where the hardware is "good enough" that replacing it at less than a 3-5 year interval is unnecessary.

    1. Re:Unsurprising by Feral+Nerd · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Of course sales growth / adoption rates have to level off: you can't sell a billion phones every year to a population of ~7 billion indefinitely. Much like desktops before them, smartphones have reached the point where the hardware is "good enough" that replacing it at less than a 3-5 year interval is unnecessary.

      Funnily enough that does not stop the unwashed masses that make up 'the market' from expecting such growth to go on indefinitely kind of like they also expect real estate prices to rise indefinitely despite ample evidence to the contrary in the form of innumerable burst real estate bubbles. It is almost comical to watch how surprised everybody is when a bubble burst or a rapidly growing market segment gets (inevitably) saturated.

    2. Re:Unsurprising by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      The desktop situation is far different to the smart phone drop in sales. When it comes to desktops, the majority of consumers are simply not buying them at all any more. They only ever bought desktops because that was the only cost effective solution, for general use, media consumption and education because notebooks at one stage were far too expensive and smart phones or tablets or smart TVs did not exist. The desktop market is shrinking right back to it's original base, power users, business, government and higher education. The era of typical end users buying desktops is pretty much over.

      Smart phones still have scope for growth with regards to greater capability, especially with virtual reality glasses enabling people to carry a big screen TV in their pocket along with that smart phone and that leads to longer battery life requirements and durability demands kicking in (fewer upgrades produces demand for extended usable life).

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    3. Re:Unsurprising by marka63 · · Score: 1

      Funny thing real estate prices have essentially risen indefinitely and will continue to do so with the odd correction. The only question is what rate of growth is sustainable? Look at any long term graph of property prices.

    4. Re:Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Desktops and laptops both suffer from the problem that a 5 year old machine is as fast as a brand new machine today. So spending the money on a new computer is a complete waste as all you get is a shiny new machine that is as slow as the old one.

      We need >6ghz processor speeds and to back off on the stupidity of hyperthreading that only slows down a computer by cutting the core speeds in half to give you 2X cores for software that is not multi threaded to begin with. Make single threaded faster as it seems programmers today are too stupid to utilize multiple threads decently.

      A 10 year old i5 machine with 8gb ram and a SSD drive will kick the crap out of a 6th gen i5 $500 computer with a standard drive. and that is what users see. $160 to make that old machine faster than that $500 computer? hell yeah I'll do that.

    5. Re:Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      And they will keep rising as long as the population keep growing and concentrating in small areas

      And going back to the topic about smart phones drop to single digits I am just pleased to add that for once Microsoft seems to be ahead of the curve :)

    6. Re:Unsurprising by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      That's not the only reason. Nowadays smartphones reached a comfort zone (size, specs & ergonomics) that tend to have people keeping their phone for longer. Incremental upgrades (at a significant cost) are not that appealing.

      --
      Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
    7. Re:Unsurprising by jezwel · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What I don't understand is Microsoft *not* doubling down on the emerging market of dockable phones replacing desktops, laptops, and tablets. An x86 compatible phone running full Windows and able to run all those Windows desktop apps could be the desktop replacement item of choice for many roles in enterprises.
      My current PC runs mostly web based apps, doesn't do any real local processing, and has a 1.4GHz CoreM CPU, 8GB RAM, and a 128GB SSD. Phone hardware is perilously close to meeting / exceeding all of these...

    8. Re:Unsurprising by mysidia · · Score: 1

      The problem is Smartphones have levelled off in what is being added GAME-CHANGING IMPROVEMENTS ARE NO LONGER BEING MADE.

      If the technology remains stagnant, then people won't need to replace their cell phones. People aren't going to replace their cell phones, just because of minor refinements..... you need something HUGE that is compelling. A Killer App to get people onto your new phone.

      A hardware game-changing improvement, not a software enhancement that is easily copied.

    9. Re:Unsurprising by Stormwatch · · Score: 1

      A dockable phone is nice because you can connect a big screen, a real keyboard, and so on. But guess what's easier to carry than all that shit? A laptop! And then the dockable phone doesn't seem so hot anymore. Also, if everything you run is web-based anyway, why do you need Windows desktop apps?

      --
      Circumcision is child abuse.
    10. Re:Unsurprising by Gussington · · Score: 1

      Of course sales growth / adoption rates have to level off: you can't sell a billion phones every year to a population of ~7 billion indefinitely. Much like desktops before them, smartphones have reached the point where the hardware is "good enough" that replacing it at less than a 3-5 year interval is unnecessary.

      Assuming a 5 year replacement, and 7 billion customers, that means 1.4 Billion new devices each year. So a billion phones a year sounds reasonable.

    11. Re:Unsurprising by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      The idea is that I do not have to carry the big screen/keyboard all the time, but still have all my files and programs (and do not need to set up terminal services and a storage server, both of which require an internet connection, so are not as useful in places where mobile internet is slow).
      Of course, this is if you use something that is not web based, if all you need if facebook and gmail, then, I guess, you do not need a Windows dockable phone.

      I would be satisfied with a more modern Viliv N5 (or a Psion Series 5 with 2016 internals) though.

    12. Re:Unsurprising by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Of course sales growth / adoption rates have to level off: you can't sell a billion phones every year to a population of ~7 billion indefinitely. Much like desktops before them, smartphones have reached the point where the hardware is "good enough" that replacing it at less than a 3-5 year interval is unnecessary.

      When the damn vendor stops supporting that smartphone after two years and you stop receiving critical security updates on your "good enough" device, actually caring about your life getting hacked also appears to be "unnecessary".

      Seems we've quickly forgotten about the true problem here. A smartphone is hardly a desktop.

    13. Re:Unsurprising by Feral+Nerd · · Score: 1

      Funny thing real estate prices have essentially risen indefinitely and will continue to do so with the odd correction. The only question is what rate of growth is sustainable? Look at any long term graph of property prices.

      I was trying to make the point that in every real estate bubble (or bubbles in general) I have seen people expected the inflation of the bubble to go on indefinetly despite recent history being littered with stories of burst real estate bubbles. It's like the part of the brain that handles critical thought and common sense gets shut off as people start watching reality shows about real estate speculation while they watch the bubble value of their house go up and get second mortgages to pay for consumption. It's the 'short term corrections' that will kill you if you bought a property at inflated prices, end up in a house that is worth half of what you owe and then loose your job in the recession that follows the real estate bubble. This is the patern we saw after the mortgage crisis.

    14. Re:Unsurprising by just+another+AC · · Score: 1

      Of course sales growth / adoption rates have to level off: you can't sell a billion phones every year to a population of ~7 billion indefinitely. Much like desktops before them, smartphones have reached the point where the hardware is "good enough" that replacing it at less than a 3-5 year interval is unnecessary.

      A billion a year = new phone for everyone on earth every 7 years on average. That is do-able (probably in the near future), especially since first world is already comfortable with 2-3 years average.

      But your point stands. Eventually growth has to level off. Even if we got to the point of buying a new phone rather than recharging, we still must hit an endpoint, where it makes no sense to buy phones on a faster cycle.

    15. Re:Unsurprising by just+another+AC · · Score: 1

      scarce resource in an inflationary economy -> would expect price to go up (to maintain value).

      Big difference between price going up, and sales numbers going up (not just sales $). Sales numbers mean more widgets must be made. Eventually we run out of supply. Money is an arbitrary system. We can just use bigger numbers on the bills indefinitely (with occasional resets of new currency or new currency unit).

    16. Re:Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My house has a keyboard/mouse/monitors. My office has keyboard/mouse/monitors. My parent's and friends' houses have keyboard/mouse/monitor. Even my vacation home has a crappy keyboard/mouse/monitor.

      If I could just bring my phone in my pocket (and sometimes a small docking device) instead of my laptop (with its own docking device if I want to get serious work done) it would be fantastic.

    17. Re:Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      5 year old machines ARE NOT as fast as a current gen machines.

      However, software has not kept pace with hardware advancement (in part due to smartphones and tablets where you optimize for a weak cpu and offload heavy computations to the cloud, but also in part there is only soo much horsepower required for certain tasks, anything more is a waste). So a 5 year old desktop can run Office 2016 as smoothly as a computer purchased today.

      Giving the illusion that they are of equal power. But they are not, run anything requiring some serious number crunching, and you will quite quite quickly notice a huge difference.

    18. Re:Unsurprising by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      You mean software has not been bloating and slowing down fast enough? That's great.

      While web browsers today have to do more complex stuff compared to web browsers years ago, other software should not change (that is, slow down).

      What I used MS Word 2000 for: Writing/editing a document and printing it.
      What I use MS Word 2016 for: Writing/editing a document and printing it.

      In both cases, the document looks pretty much the same (basic layout etc, you know, stuff like an office memo), so why would Word 2016 need 30 times faster hardware to do the exact same thing?

    19. Re:Unsurprising by CimmerianX · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, but lets not forget that a laptop runs an OS that is made for productivity. Android and iOS are made for consumption.

      If you want to create stuff, you need a laptop with an real OS designed for that. Last time I checked, after the upgrade from ver 4, I couldn't mount a cifs share on my phone anymore. Hmmm. And I need to save and edit files, android puts files all over the freaking place, have you ever tried finding something specific (and, no, letting the OS sort shit for me won't fly for real work).

    20. Re:Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I was not implying it should.

      All I was saying is that a computer built today is faster than one built 5 years ago (assuming both used state of the art components of their time). The reason why we hardly notice is because software we commonly use on a day to day basis has not changed to require faster hardware, and in fact has been optimized to run on weaker CPUs and GPUs to be compatible with tablets and phones.

    21. Re:Unsurprising by Rob+Y. · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but why do you need all that stuff on your phone. All that desktop goodness is more or less useless on a pocketable device. And if desktop mobility is what you want, a Surface Pro probably accomplishes that better than any phone can - and without the need for the docking station (though you could use one if you wanted). And, of course, once all the desktop stuff you need is web based, a future touch-enabled, Android-capable Chromebook will do it all for 200 bucks. Sure, you'd still need to carry a separate phone, but at least you won't be dropping that 'desktop with all your apps' in the toilet any time soon...

      --
      Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
    22. Re:Unsurprising by cjjjer · · Score: 1

      Microsoft is rumored to be working on a Surface Phone and HP already showed off the X3 http://store.hp.com/us/en/ContentView?storeId=10151&catalogId=10051&langId=-1&eSpotName=Elite-x3/ so there are possibilities with the dockable phones soon.

    23. Re: Unsurprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      30% improvements in CPU and GPU performance are 'game changing'

    24. Re:Unsurprising by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      Something like the Psion Series 5 was quite useful - it is small enough to fit in a pocket, but has a relatively good keyboard and a touchscreen. Its downsides (IMO) are only related to its age - no built-in internet connectivity, slow CPU, incompatibility with desktop file formats, like .doc (without conversion).

      Viliv N5 is more modern (2010), but still quite slow and 1GB RAM pretty much limits it to Windows XP (though it can run Linux, I have programs that are not fully compatible with it).

      Something like that made in 2016 should be much better.

      Having a mini-laptop is useful because I do not need to look for alternatives to the programs I use. I do not have pockets big enough for Surface Pro, but Viliv or Psion can fit quite well.

      I also doubt that there will be a time when "all the desktop stuff you need is web based" - I do not particularly like storing my data on somebody else's servers, also, there are places where mobile internet is slow.

    25. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      A dockable phone is nice because you can connect a big screen, a real keyboard, and so on. But guess what's easier to carry than all that shit? A laptop!

      Um, what? The point of a dockable mobile device is to NOT carry around a keyboard, mouse, screen, etc. in any form, laptop or otherwise.

    26. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      a Surface Pro probably accomplishes that better than any phone can
      Android-capable Chromebook will do it all for 200 bucks

      A Surface nor a Chromebook are phone-form-factor. Your general point is that people should just carry laptops instead of docking phones. Do you really need an explanation why that doesn't make sense?

    27. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      You have no clue what you are talking about.

      I checked, after the upgrade from ver 4, I couldn't mount a cifs share on my phone anymore.

      Of course you can.

      And I need to save and edit files, android puts files all over the freaking place

      It puts them exactly where the app saves them, like any other OS.

    28. Re:Unsurprising by Stormwatch · · Score: 1

      Then you're assuming wherever you arrive will have all those things available for your use. But such a place would probably provide a PC as well - because who just has PC accessories lying around without a PC? We're stuck in a loop now.

      --
      Circumcision is child abuse.
    29. Re:Unsurprising by Stormwatch · · Score: 1

      Desktop programs let you choose where you want to save. Mobile programs often do not.

      --
      Circumcision is child abuse.
    30. Re:Unsurprising by Rob+Y. · · Score: 1

      My point was that people who need to carry around a machine capable of doing desktop-style work should carry light laptops - rather than paying for a high-spec'd phone that can do those things - but only do them reasonably if docked to an external keyboard and monitor. Yeah, there may be some people who need to be able to dock a device and use it in multiple locations - without also needing to use it when away from a docking station. But that's a small population. There's a bigger population that needs a mobile desktop-ish device that they can use anywhere without needing a docking station. And that population already has notebooks. So, I'm just saying a phone that can dock and become a desktop, while undoubtedly cool, has limited appeal. And if it's going to have to be expensive to be powerful enough to run Windows, it's going to have even less appeal.

      Now if that device cost the same as a traditional phone - and had all the apps of a traditional phone, then sure - go for it. That might even happen with a future version of Android. I suppose if Windows had ever gotten to the point where the RT flavor had the apps people really needed, so they could strip it down to a moderately priced ARM-based form factor, that might have worked nicely. And that's probably what the designers of RT had in mind. Strip out all the legacy WIN32 stuff they could in order to compete in the arena of small and cheap - not just small. But it didn't work out. So a pricey, full-blown Intel Windows 10 machine that fits in your pocket is likely to make for some cute demos - and have a genuine cool factor - but not many people are actually going to buy them.

      --
      Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
    31. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      My point was that people who need to carry around a machine capable of doing desktop-style work should carry light laptops - rather than paying for a high-spec'd phone that can do those things

      Because,

      1. Bigger is better
      2. I like backpacks
      3. I heard a laptop battery can stop a bullet
      4. More computers is better

      http://www.blogcdn.com/de.enga...

      ?

    32. Re:Unsurprising by Rob+Y. · · Score: 1

      What part of 'some people need to use their devices in places without access to a docking station' did you miss? If you want a phone that you can use as a desktop at home or at work where you have a docking station - more power to you. If you need to use that thing on a train or airplane - or Starbucks for that matter - the Continuum thing won't work for you. That's all I'm saying. For those people, who need a real laptop, there's no point in having a phone that can be a desktop too. If they can manage that capability for free, then sure. Otherwise, the laptop-needing population won't pay extra for it.

      --
      Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
    33. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      What part of 'some people need to use their devices in places without access to a docking station' did you miss?

      Yeah, and some people don't. FFS dude, did I say "docking stations will completely replace all possible use cases for a laptop"? The answer is no because I guess I have to spoon feed you this. We're not talking about those people obviously. We're talking about the 2 billion people that ONLY carry phones and are obviously okay without a laptop.

      For those people, who need a real laptop, there's no point in having a phone that can be a desktop too.

      You know what else? For people that need a card, a bike isn't good enough. Also, for people that like pizza, a carrot isn't good enough.

    34. Re:Unsurprising by CimmerianX · · Score: 1

      I'm not talking about accessing CIFS, I want to mount it to /mnt/ or whereever. IF you have a solution that allows me to do this, please share.

    35. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      Why?

    36. Re:Unsurprising by CimmerianX · · Score: 1

      I use a reader app to access a library of books, comics, etc that I keep on a CIFS share. I have systems automatically download and sort the files. I have a reader on a phone that can only connect to a local file to browse and read. I can't copy the entire library to my phone, even a subset would be space prohibitive. So Mounting the directory to my phone allowing the browse and opening of files is what I'm after.

    37. Re:Unsurprising by farble1670 · · Score: 1

      If you use a file explorer that can open CIFS shares, you can open it in the explorer, and choose your read app to open it assuming it supports that (which it should). That's how it done in Android. I use this method to stream movies and are media on a CIFS share to media player apps on my device.

  3. Holy crap by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 3, Funny

    That's no more than nine phones world wide!

  4. as expected by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    ...and companies who built their business plan on the current growth continuing will have a hard time of it. We've reached the flat end of the curve. Current phones (with the possible exception of Windows Phone, which could use a couple more iterations, and Blackberry... well, sorry) are Good Enough.

    I wonder how many companies will realize the ramifications of this?

    Technical Support will become more important, because people aren't trading in their phones every 18 months. (Replacing cracked screens, bonkered earphone jacks, bad buttons, etc. All the outward facing stuff.) (This could be a small business opportunity.)

    Battery longevity (not charge, but how many charges it'll take) will become more important, as well as battery replacement. Let's face it, there aren't many people who will buy another $600 phone in order to get a new $40 battery.

    Firmware updates may become more important. No, I'm not going to buy another phone just to go from OS 4.2.2 to OS 4.2.3.

    Product differentiation might become features more like the LG G5, where the battery can be replaced in seconds without taking off the back. (I'm blase about "new" features, but that one I could actually use!)

    Since people will be using their phones longer, perhaps more storage, or an easy way to migrate content to a PC, might be in order. ("Easy" *NOT* defined as some stupid dysfunctional proprietary app offered by the carrier that isn't worth crapping on.)

    Maybe someone will be able to figure out how to shrink smartphone functionality down to watch size, and actually make is usable, without having to be bluetooth connected to a phone.

    There's a *lot* of room for improvement in voice recognition.

    There are probably other things. We could see this coming. Let's see now if the vendors could.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    1. Re:as expected by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      There is already a huge business in replacing screens and other things like that. Hell there is a phone repair kiosk in every shopping mall I visit.

      The killer for that business is that good phones aren't that expensive and screens make up a significant % of their cost. No you may not pay $600 to replace your battery, but you will pay $400 to replace a cracked screen on a 2 year old device knowing you will get a new phone, new battery, when the screen replacement cost is $200

    2. Re:as expected by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      There is already a huge business in replacing screens and other things like that. Hell there is a phone repair kiosk in every shopping mall I visit.

      The killer for that business is that good phones aren't that expensive and screens make up a significant % of their cost. No you may not pay $600 to replace your battery, but you will pay $400 to replace a cracked screen on a 2 year old device knowing you will get a new phone, new battery, when the screen replacement cost is $200

      Really? I do replace broken screens, headphone jacks and the like as a small side business. You can buy a new screen for an iphone 6 (for instance) for around $30, less if you go wholesale. You need special tools to get the thing open, but you only have to buy those once. It takes about an hour to replace it if you're working carefully.

      If the kiosks are really charging $400 per phone to replace a broken screen, I really need to open a kiosk.

      Seriously, there's nothing in a modern smartphone that justifies a $600 price tag except the intellectual property. The individual parts aren't cheaper than dirt, but they're cheaper than a tank of gas.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    3. Re:as expected by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      Never looked at iPhone repairs as never owned one. But all the android ones I've looked to repair seem to come with an integrated glass, digitiser, LCD. The glass is glued to the digitizer and LCD and getting them apart is almost impossible.

      If you look at all the ifixit guides it's always replace that entire component. My phone is an LG G4, the replacement screen digitizer LCD is US$109 on Ebay. Iphone ones do appear to be cheaper thats for sure.

    4. Re:as expected by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      Whomever you're doing business with is rooking you. A brand new LG G4 digitizer LCD assembly on Amazon is $53.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    5. Re:as expected by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      I just went to ebay....

      Might have to have another look, given I have cracked my screen....

  5. isn't this a repeat post? by turkeydance · · Score: 5, Funny

    not only is my short-term memory horrible...so is my short-term memory.

  6. Smartphone sales *GROWTH* by Guybrush_T · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Growth is the important term here. Of course it is decreasing, now that basically everyone has a smartphone. You cannot go above 100% of the market. It used to grow a lot when people were transitioning from dumbphones to smartphones.

    So, yes, people change their phone less often, but the 2010 figures were mostly the transition to smartphones.

    1. Re:Smartphone sales *GROWTH* by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      Yes you can. I carry TWO smartphones, An iphone 6 plus and a HTC ONE M8. I just wish I could get working LTE dual sim hexaband phones here so I could have the two lines on one phone.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    2. Re:Smartphone sales *GROWTH* by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      It's not this but it's harder to maintain growth in a larger market let alone keep growing faster. Getting 5% growth on 1M is easier than 5% growth on 10M. The smart phone market has been growing for years. And while it is reaching saturation point in developed countries there is still plenty of growth available in the developing markets. The problem is that there are so many people that already have smartphones that you have to sell huge numbers to keep growth growing. And that is what the investment market wants to see. Anything less and those people who don't know anything about math or technology and they start to declare that the world is going to end.

    3. Re:Smartphone sales *GROWTH* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For every two of you in the world, there are three grandparents that refuse to give up their basic.

  7. In other news... by Darinbob · · Score: 1

    In other news, the late Amazing Criswell filed suit against the Gartner Group, claiming "I've got the patent on making shit up for profit!"

    1. Re:In other news... by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      What's the name of the other one, whose business model is "saying the opposite to Gartner for profit"?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  8. Only 1.5 Billion? by tomhath · · Score: 1

    only 1.5 billion smartphone units expected to ship globally this year

    I guess a billion isn't what it used to be. Tough to grow by double digits when the market is that big.

  9. Build higher quality smartphones in the US by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We need to build higher quality smartphones in the US and keep jobs here. People will buy smartphones in the US if they know the phones are made here and support American workers. We must keep jobs from leaving the US. Build the wall to keep the jobs in the US. It's the only real solution from any of the candidates. TRUMP 2016!

    1. Re:Build higher quality smartphones in the US by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you afford $1000 for a basic smartphone then? Well that's what they'd cost if they were 100% made in the USA.
      Rhetoric is all fine and good but unless the facts behind them stack up they are nowt more than hot air.

      I did see a poster saying

      Vote Alfred E Neuman
      President in 2016

      Earlier today in NW CA.
      That's more my idea of a candidate.
      None of the above seems the lesser of three evils at the moment.

  10. Hmmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not hip anymore

  11. Check math by Firethorn · · Score: 2

    If you own the *whole* market, 1B phones to 7B people would be a median replacement rate of about 7 years.

    Which seems very possible, especially if you actually have a replacement schedule of 3-5 years to cover small kids and people who still don't get them.

    But yeah, go from replacing your phone every other year to 3-5, as well as having market saturation among people who can afford them, and you're going to see slow sales growth.

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
  12. News written by reporters who never do business by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    So we have a news article whining about the mere single digit growth of the Smartphone in 2016, as if this gonna be the death knell of the smartphone industry

    But wait ... how many percent growth we have in car sales this year?

    Or for window curtains?

    Or for watches?

    Or for floor tiles?

    Or for stainless steel spoon?

    Instead of mourning the 'death of the smartphone' we should celebrate - because it is precisely in a saturated market that new ideas emerge

    For cars, they went from Ford's model T and expanded it into Pickup Trucks, into SUV, and even Tesla, the electric car

    If the market for Model T kept on expanding year on year, we will still have chokeful of Model T plying our road right now

    Because of the saturated market for the smartphone new niches will be created and we as consumers will get to enjoy more choices

    1. Re:News written by reporters who never do business by invictusvoyd · · Score: 1

      In this world Ford sells his saturated car business to Microsoft who screws it to no end .

    2. Re:News written by reporters who never do business by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      +1 Insightful.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
  13. Its hard to justify by TheRecklessWanderer · · Score: 2

    It's hard to justify spending 800 bucks on a new smart phone every year or two.

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    Mean what you say...say what you mean.
    1. Re: Its hard to justify by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But that $800 phone can be had for only $200, with a two year contract! At only $60 per month, plus a data plan, that's ... Hold on, that can't be right, let me check my math.

  14. Only 7% growth? by nbritton · · Score: 1

    Umm, does anyone else realize that 7% of 1.5 billion is 105 million? If you figure $600 per phone that's $63 billion in new sales.

    1. Re: Only 7% growth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Not everybody is stupid enough to spend $600 on a phone.

  15. another one of those by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "X + Y = Nothing to do with Z" Sensationalist BOT submissions

    Bye-bye ./

  16. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  17. Does anyone track Gartner? by Mean+Variance · · Score: 1

    I've wondered, but never to the point of taking the time, have Gartner prognostications ever been tracked?

  18. i'll tell you how to get more growth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    just contact me

  19. Slashdot's new AppendVaguelyRelatedLinkBot by flopsquad · · Score: 1

    Last week, it was reported that Microsoft is selling about 1,500 of its patents to Chinese device maker Xiaomi to build a 'long-term partnership.'

    So this has become a thing, apparently. It's not nearly the worst thing I've seen on a news site (even just today), but it is a transparent ploy and roundly unhelpful.

    Well, unhelpful to the reader. I'm sure it's helpful to the site owners to zombie up a lightly attended article from X days back and plop some eyeballs on it.

    But whipslash, can you maybe ask the guys that tune the bot to make it a little less non-sequitur-y?

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    Nothing posted to /. has ever been legal advice, including this.
  20. growth cannot be sustained forever... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I cant believe that in the 21st century economist and financial experts (companies included) believe that growth can last forever...

    If i have a phone, it means that i wont need a phone in a foreseeably future. If a whole country has a phone, a whole country wont need phones. So, why some people/companies expect further growth in that case?? No comprendo.

  21. Re:Reliability? by Gussington · · Score: 1

    Not Gartner, but this is one of my favourites: https://foundersgrid.com/bitco...

    Read the predictions, then check the date at the bottom of the page.

  22. I wouldn't believe Gartner... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...if they told me the sun was going to rise tomorrow.

  23. When "good enough" security, is not. by geekmux · · Score: 1

    From a security standpoint, smartphones are often abandoned well before their useful life. In that sense, it's a bit difficult to find the comparison with "good enough" desktop hardware. You won't lose support from your internet provider if you choose to reload your desktop. Even if you choose to run a different OS altogether, and use a different browser. The same cannot be said for smartphones.

    And when consumers treat an unsupported smartphone as "good enough", the end result is finding their lives getting hacked, because that's exactly what they store in them.

    Honestly, I'm not sure what's more annoying from a smartphone vendor. Stopping support well before the useful life, or non-removable battery design to all but guarantee your hardware will be killed prematurely. Both are rather disgusting practices based on pure capitalistic greed. And quite honestly these practices result in not only considerable security issues for the masses, but also contaminating our planet that much faster. You want to claim you're a "green" company? Then design AND support your hardware to last for at least five years, because the answer here is not merely a "please recycle!" sticker slapped on the box.

  24. Why the implication this is bad? by sabbede · · Score: 1

    Slowing growth in the market is not a bad sign, it just means the market is reaching saturation. Which is neither good or bad. Overall sales and profits won't decline, they just won't grow faster than the population. Competition may intensify, causing individual market participants to grow or lose market share, but the overall picture won't change.

  25. Re:Reliability? by c · · Score: 1

    It's only 2016; Microsoft could still pull off a 10% Windows Phone market share by 2018. Have some faith.

    *giggle* *snort*

    Damn. I almost managed to keep a straight face...

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    Log in or piss off.
  26. Upgrade every year? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not sure there ever was a reason to upgrade every year, but I've never had a cell phone last more than 2-3 years either the screen smashes or it starts glitching.

    So the cycle has just slowed down.

    Not as bad as laptops, those things go forever now, the next one I buy secondhand will cost me $200 and have the power of a supercomputer.