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Transistors Will Stop Shrinking in 2021, Moore's Law Roadmap Predicts (ieee.org)
Moore's Law, an empirical observation of the number of components that could be built on an integrated circuit and their corresponding cost, has largely held strong for more than 50 years, but its days are really numbered now. The prediction of the 2015 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, which was only officially made available this month, says that transistor could stop shrinking in just five years. From an article on IEEE: After 2021, the report forecasts, it will no longer be economically desirable for companies to continue to shrink the dimensions of transistors in microprocessors. Instead, chip manufacturers will turn to other means of boosting density, namely turning the transistor from a horizontal to a vertical geometry and building multiple layers of circuitry, one on top of another. These roadmapping shifts may seem like trivial administrative changes. But "this is a major disruption, or earthquake, in the industry," says analyst Dan Hutcheson, of the firm VLSI Research. U.S. semiconductor companies had reason to cooperate and identify common needs in the early 1990s, at the outset of the roadmapping effort that eventually led to the ITRS's creation in 1998. Suppliers had a hard time identifying what the semiconductor companies needed, he says, and it made sense for chip companies to collectively set priorities to make the most of limited R&D funding.It still might not be the end of Moore's remarkable observation, though. The report adds that processors could still continue to fulfill Moore's Law with increased vertical density. The original report published by ITRS is here.
Moore's law has nothing to do with the number of transistors on a chip. It's about the complexity of minimum component cost, which means you can get more of the cheapest thing on the device. If the transistors are the cheapest thing on the chip, and if they aren't getting cheaper, and if they can't build bigger chips that contain the cheapest transistors, then Moore's law is dead.
In actual reality, most of Moore's law has stopped 6-8 years ago. Just compare a midrange CPU from back then with one from today in actual performance. Not so much of a difference.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Google it, you'll get that it has to do with number of transistors, not complexity.
"The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future."
Well, actually, it's not about maximum number of components of a single chip, it's about complexity for minimum component costs (that's verbatim from Moore's article - which, by a strange coincidence, I happen to have re-read just a few hours ago!).
Ezekiel 23:20