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Chicago's Experiment In Predictive Policing Isn't Working (theverge.com)
The U.S. will phase out private prisons, a move made possible by fewer and shorter sentences for drug offenses, reports the BBC. But when it comes to reducing arrests for violent crimes, police officers in Chicago found themselves resorting ineffectively to a $2 million algorithm which ultimately had them visiting people before any crime had been committed. schwit1 quotes Ars Technica: Struggling to reduce its high murder rate, the city of Chicago has become an
incubator for experimental policing techniques. Community policing, stop and frisk, "interruption" tactics --- the city has tried many strategies. Perhaps most controversial and promising has been the city's futuristic "heat list" -- an algorithm-generated list identifying people most likely to be involved in a shooting.
The hope was that the list would allow police to provide social services to people in danger, while also preventing likely shooters from picking up a gun. But a new report from the RAND Corporation shows nothing of the sort has happened. Instead, it indicates that the list is, at best, not even as effective as a most wanted list. At worst, it unnecessarily targets people for police attention, creating a new form of profiling.
The police argue they've updated the algorithm and improved their techniques for using it. But the article notes that the researchers began following the "heat list" when it launched in 2013, and "found that the program has saved no lives at all."
The hope was that the list would allow police to provide social services to people in danger, while also preventing likely shooters from picking up a gun. But a new report from the RAND Corporation shows nothing of the sort has happened. Instead, it indicates that the list is, at best, not even as effective as a most wanted list. At worst, it unnecessarily targets people for police attention, creating a new form of profiling.
The police argue they've updated the algorithm and improved their techniques for using it. But the article notes that the researchers began following the "heat list" when it launched in 2013, and "found that the program has saved no lives at all."
Stop lying, although I know you find that hard.
http://www.sarsonline.org/resources-stats/reports-laws-statics
52% of rapists are white, 83.5% of the population is white. .62 for whites, 2.9 for non whites)
Therefore non whites are over 4.5 times as likely to be a rapist.
(the normalised numbers are
That is on top of the estimates that rape is estimated over 5 TIMES less likely to be reported in non white communities.
None of which is good, but those are the facts.
All rape is bad, very very bad. Misusing statistics to focus on the wrong people is just as bad - you are disrespecting
the victims by trying to use their suffering for your own political purposes.
You're talking about the old "broken windows" theory.
It's been discredited, of course. It doesn't actually accomplish anything other than locking up poor people, and it's been used in a very disproportionally racist manner.
When you do a comparison of crime rates in cities that used it and cities that didn't, both have seen a decrease in crime. Probably the most likely reason has been the removal of lead from gasoline, significantly reducing the degree of low-level lead poisoning.
If poor people are being driven to these extremes by poverty, then why isn't one of the richest countries in the world doing something to address that?
This is an insult to poor people. Like, "Oh, they are poor, they can't help themselves from murdering." Being a former poor person myself, I spit in your face. When was the last time you actually helped a poor person instead of saying, "Oh, someone should help them."
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."