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Can Humankind Establish a Supply Chain in Space? (arxiv.org)
Long-time Slashdot reader RockDoctor shares a new paper by NASA planetary scientist Philip Metzger, "detailing a roadmap for humanity to take control of the Solar System in order to solve problems on Earth" by utilizing the resources that are already on the moon. In a 2013 paper, Dr. Metgzer wrote: "[B]ootstrapping" can be achieved with as little as 12 metric tons landed on the Moon during a period of about 20 years... The industry grows exponentially because of the free real estate, energy, and material resources of space. The mass of industrial assets at the end of bootstrapping will be 156 metric tons with 60 humanoid robots or as high as 40,000 metric tons... Within another few decades with no further investment, it can have millions of times the industrial capacity of the United States...
Dr. Metzger wrote in 2013 that "This industry promises to revolutionize the human condition." (See RockDoctor's original submission for more details.) While Metzger now notes that "It will require a sustained commitment of several decades to complete," his new article points out that a lunar supply chain outpost "will cost about 1/3 or less of the existing annual budgets of the national space programs," thanks to advances in both robotics and artificial intelligence, and will help humanity develop renewable energy and greatly expand the availability of other limited resources.
Dr. Metzger wrote in 2013 that "This industry promises to revolutionize the human condition." (See RockDoctor's original submission for more details.) While Metzger now notes that "It will require a sustained commitment of several decades to complete," his new article points out that a lunar supply chain outpost "will cost about 1/3 or less of the existing annual budgets of the national space programs," thanks to advances in both robotics and artificial intelligence, and will help humanity develop renewable energy and greatly expand the availability of other limited resources.
I'm part of a project to build this kind of self-bootstrapping Seed Factories, for Earth first, then later in space. There's a report on applying the concept to space at:
* https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/... (part 1)
* https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/... (part 2)
I've corresponded with Metzger, and agree with his general idea, but disagree about placing the seed factory on the Lunar surface. The surface only gets sunlight half the time, while in high orbit you can get sunlight 100% of the time. The Moon is severely depleted in volatile compounds because it was baked for hundreds of millions of years, and is too low mass to hold on to easily vaporized materials. Near Earth Asteroids complement the Moon in terms of ore types, and the optimum place to bring everything together is a high orbit near, but not on, the Moon.
That's where self-bootstrapping automated production (seed factories) come in.
You build the first ones here on Earth. That's my day job, by the way - building prototype seed factories. The first generation factories are built in moderate environments, like Atlanta where we are working. They produce parts for more equipment, eventually growing to industrial size. They also produce useful products to pay for their upkeep. Eventually you send new seed factories to more difficult locations, like the oceans, ice caps, and deserts. Finally, you tell your collection of factories to build rocket factories and launch pads, and off you go to space.
The starter sets (seed factories) won't be free, but they will be low cost because they are small. They pay their own way after that, by making things people need and want.
> but you need to claw out of a really deep gravity well to get that stuff to the Moon
The actual escape energy from Earth is 62.5 MJ/kg = 17.375 kWh/kg = $1/kg at wholesale electric rates, about what I pay for potatoes. We just have been terribly inefficient about how we get to space.
Modern mines here in Oz are pretty much run by robots already, eg: the giant open cut Argyle diamond mine is operated by just 12 people (up to the point where the raw diamonds are ready to be assessed by a jeweler's eye).We do some really dumb shit too, eg: we mine bauxite in the NT desert, put it on a boat and send it several thousand miles south to Victoria where the state government gave them a great deal on a coal fired generator to run their electric arc smelter. The aluminium is then loaded on a boat that sails back past the mine to the northern hemisphere markets.
Why don't they smelt it on site using solar power from the desert around the mine? - Because "jobs for victorians".
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.