The Moon's Gravitational Pull Can Trigger Major Earthquakes, Says Study (nature.com)

schwit1 writes: A careful statistical analysis of when major earthquakes occur has suggested they are more likely to be more powerful if they occur around the full and new moons when tidal forces are at their peak. Nature.com reports: "Satoshi Ide, a seismologist at the University of Tokyo, and his colleagues investigated three separate earthquake records covering Japan, California and the entire globe. For the 15 days leading up to each quake, the scientists assigned a number representing the relative tidal stress on that day, with 15 representing the highest. They found that large quakes such as those that hit Chile and Tohoku-Oki occurred near the time of maximum tidal strain -- or during new and full moons when the Sun, Moon and Earth align. For more than 10,000 earthquakes of around magnitude 5.5, the researchers found, an earthquake that began during a time of high tidal stress was more likely to grow to magnitude 8 or above." As these results are based entirely on statistical evidence, not on any direct link between tidal forces and actual quakes, they are quite uncertain and unproven.

Comments

Unnecessary cushioning

[The Evil Atheist]

As these results are based entirely on statistical evidence, not on any direct link between tidal forces and actual quakes, they are quite uncertain and unproven.

Given that the article does not say tidal forces CAUSE quakes, this cushioning is completely unnecessary. They're only noting a suggestion of a link between tidal forces and the magnitude of the quake - not the occurrence/non-occurrence of a quake.

And something being "based entirely on statistical evidence" does not invalidate or weaken anything. It is the quality of the statistical evidence, not the mere use of statistical evidence, that would invalidate or weaken a claim.

Re:Unnecessary cushioning

[Alomex]

Correlation does not imply causation.

This has become a /. meme. What is your suggestion here, that there is a third agent responsible both for earthquakes and full/new moons?

In real life, science correlation is often converted into causation using Occam's razor or logical physical principles. E.g. while there is nothing in theoretical physics forbidding the interpretation that the light about to start shining made you turn the switch, we choose for a variety of other reasons, the interpretation that the causation is the other way around, we turn on the switch, then the light goes on.

Sellings eyeballs to the ad company

[DrYak]

Yeah, but
"Study shows statistical correlation that might suggest that tidal stress could be among the dozens of other factors that each contribute slightly in favor of stronger earthquakes", though much more accurate, doesn't have the same "oomph" and thus doesn't manage to sell the same amount of eyeballs to the ad-company paying for this fucking article.
"The moon will kill with its earthquake power! Cower in terror!! Panic!!! Buy products to feel better!!!!" works so much better...