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With HDDs On The Ropes, Samsung Predicts SSD Price Collisions As NVMe Takes Over (tomshardware.com)

At its Global SSD Summit, Samsung shared its vision of the current state of SSD market and also outlined the future trends. The company noted that SSDs are steadily displacing HDDs in more applications, but NVMe is shaping up to be the dark horse that may put the venerable HDD to rest. From an article on Tom's Hardware: Samsung loves Google, and not just because it probably buys plenty of its SSDs. Samsung outlined its rather intense focus on Google Analytics for marketing purposes last year, and this year it pointed out that recent Google searches for "SSD upgrades" outweighed searches for "CPU upgrades." The historical trend indicates that this wasn't always the case (of course), but with 40 million searches for SSD upgrades this year, it is clear that SSDs are on the move. Performance stagnation in the CPU market is probably to blame here, as well, and we routinely advise readers to spend their hard-earned dollars on GPU and SSD upgrades before the CPU. The cellphone industry has long served as the prime example of an explosive growth market; it grew 19.1% in the last five years alone. SSDs, by contrast, grew 54%, and the steady downward pricing slope is a key factor. The all-important price-per-GB fell from $1.17 in 2012 to a mere $0.36 in 2016 (69% reduction). This is an average value, you can find SSDs for even less on the retail market. The SSD market grew 6x (to 130,000,000) from 2012 to 2016. Samsung's NAND shipments benefit from both the smartphone and SSD industries, and the company presented a chart that highlighted the changing NAND shipment mix. A higher percentage of flash heads into the SSD and Mobile segments every year as the percentage of UFD (USB Flash Drive), cards, and "others" decline.

32 of 161 comments (clear)

  1. Surely Samsung SSD's are great, but... by infernalC · · Score: 4, Funny

    can they explode like Samsung washing machines and phones? /me ducks

  2. NVMe? by grimJester · · Score: 4, Informative

    Since the summary says nothing about NVMe, here's a Wikipedia link

  3. Anal - lytic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Google searches for "SSD upgrades" may outweigh searches for "CPU upgrades" but that would represent a very small segment of the computer buying public. Most storage is acquired with the purchase of a new machine and never changes.

    1. Re:Anal - lytic by Sir+Holo · · Score: 2

      Google searches for "SSD upgrades" may outweigh searches for "CPU upgrades" but that would represent a very small segment of the computer buying public. Most storage is acquired with the purchase of a new machine and never changes.

      I think you meant the opposite.

      Almost nobody upgrades their CPUs, but they upgrade or add internal HDDs all the time. CPU sluggish? Either regret installing Windows 10, or but a new computer because the CPU is the computer (in totality, to most people).

      The first thing a typical user dares touch inside the case is RAM. Second is HDD add/replacement. Way down the list is replacing the (GASP!) CPU with a faster one. Yes, it is dead easy, but not everyone in the world is a /. techie.

    2. Re: Anal - lytic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There are many more technical considerations and issues regarding a CPU upgrade.

    3. Re:Anal - lytic by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Informative

      While the overclocking and impecunious-PC-performance-chasing of my misspent youth makes me sad that this is the case; the "CPU upgrade = buy new computer" mentality isn't really all that irrational.

      With laptops; it is effectively mandatory. Even in laptops with socketed CPUs, unless you went out of your way to buy the absolute worst version of a laptop with fairly high end options, you'll find that the fastest socket and TDP compatible CPU upgrade just isn't all that much faster. Plus, if it's a reasonably new laptop, buying the CPU that is a worthwhile upgrade will be pretty expensive; and if it is an old one it'll be cheap; but leave you with a laptop that is showing its age in both specs and wear and tear.

      With desktops; you are also likely to have limited socket-compatible upgrade options, so getting a meaningful CPU boost often means swapping the motherboard as well(unless you started with the lousiest option for a given socket, in which case there might be meaningful improvements to be had); and if you hit the DDR2 to DDR3 or the DDR3 to DDR4 transition you'll need new RAM as well. PSU can probably be reused, unless it is particularly grim; and expansion cards, HDDs, optical drives, and case can be reused; but bumping the CPU speed in any serious way tends to mean ripping out most of the expensive parts(unless your GPU is fancy enough to count as the really expensive part of the system).

      An SSD, by contrast, is an easy swap except on laptops that really hate you; and even on ancient systems limited to 1.5Gb/s SATA, the improvement in latency and IOPs over a mechanical drive is pretty dramatic; plus compatibility is almost universal unless your system is so old that you still have PATA; or you want to boot from an NVMe device.

    4. Re:Anal - lytic by Kjella · · Score: 2

      The first thing a typical user dares touch inside the case is RAM. Second is HDD add/replacement. Way down the list is replacing the (GASP!) CPU with a faster one. Yes, it is dead easy, but not everyone in the world is a /. techie.

      It's supposed to be easy yes... but I absolutely loathe the push-pin design on Intel OEM fans, if you have a tower and move it around a little sooner or later it'll come loose at the top. The AMD Wraith cooler looks super easy to install and secure, but it only works on AMD. Now back plate designs should work on both, but at least when I tried to install a CM212 to replace the OEM fan I must have fucked something because it never booted again. Didn't bother to find out if CPU or mobo or both was fried, bought new and decided to just do OEM fan again for now. But I really, really don't trust that design. Even just ordinary nuts and bolts without the back plate would be a huge improvement but probably costs 50c more.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:Anal - lytic by somenickname · · Score: 2

      With desktops; you are also likely to have limited socket-compatible upgrade options, so getting a meaningful CPU boost often means swapping the motherboard as well(unless you started with the lousiest option for a given socket, in which case there might be meaningful improvements to be had)

      This is almost always true with one exception: Xeon CPUs. The best bang for the dollar Xeon CPUs are usually in the $500 range while their high end counterparts are in the $2000 range. Building a dual Xeon workstation with $500 CPUs is painful but, building it with $2000 CPUs is insanity. However, if you wait about 3 years, you'll be able to pick up used $2000 CPUs for $200 on E-Bay. These CPUs are usually still "top 20-ish" on performance and still have many years of life left in them (Do CPUs even die these days?). When I did my upgrade, it was a pretty dramatic difference and, for $400, totally worth it. It extended the life of a really nice machine by several years.

  4. HDD price milking by harvey+the+nerd · · Score: 5, Insightful

    after the floods of 2011 in Thailand, the HDD market raised prices, consolidated companies to fix prices higher, and has been milking them ever since. Some HDD prices per GB today are almost as low as they were before the rains in 2011...

    1. Re:HDD price milking by rsmith-mac · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The HDD pricing situation pre-flood was unsustainable. Everyone was losing money in a madcap attempt to hold on to their market share and have the other guy go out of business first.

      If not the flood, then something else would have happened to reset prices. The HDD market is still a big market, but you can't make a business of it by losing money. Current prices are (unfortunately) about where they should be for a mature market given the operating costs and SSDs eating into higher profitability high-performance drives.

    2. Re:HDD price milking by Wolfrider · · Score: 2

      --With a drive that size (8TB) I hope you are at -least- mirroring it; and if you're not using ZFS or btrfs, you should have several backups *and* checksums on your files. The chances of bitrot and unrecoverable reads on a single spinning disk with that much storage are much greater.

      REF:
      http://arstechnica.com/informa...

      http://www.zdnet.com/article/w...

      https://news.ycombinator.com/i...

      --
      .
      == WolfriderV6 == I'm willing to admit that *I just might* be wrong... Are you??
  5. SSD = silent data corruption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    While SSDs have proven to fail less than HDDs, they have proven more susceptible to data corruption, and the worst part is, you have no idea. And the only remedy appears to be FS like ZFS, which unfortunately decimates performance.

    1. Re: SSD = silent data corruption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      10% is the definition of decimate

    2. Re:SSD = silent data corruption by Bengie · · Score: 2

      ZFS is only bad performance for low end system. Throw 32GiB+ of memory and quad core or more at it and it's faster than nearly all other filesystems out there. It scales.

  6. NVMe is awesome by quarrel · · Score: 2

    I've just bought an NVMe m.2 drive for my new desktop, I was blown away by how fast it is.

    It's tiny and super fast - just what a laptop wants too. Looks like a memory stick (well, it is a memory stick!).

    Clocks over 2000 Mb/s easily (once I changed from default drivers).

    I assume their heat/power profile is better too?

    --Q

    1. Re:NVMe is awesome by thegarbz · · Score: 4, Informative

      No he made a typo. If he just bought an NVMe drive expect it to be at least 2000MB/s if not higher. The whole purpose of going to NVMe was because SATA became a major bottleneck.

    2. Re:NVMe is awesome by watanuki · · Score: 2

      SATA 3 spec is defined as 6 GB/s

      No, SATA 3 spec is defined as 6 Gbps, and with 8b/10b encoding, actual throughput 600MB/s max. Given that NVMe SSDs can run over 2000MB/s, SATA being a bottleneck is true.

  7. Unless RAID is used... by Zurkeyon3733 · · Score: 2, Informative

    As a Technician in the field for over 20 years now, I can say this from experience... Even with as far as they have come, I STILL wouldn't trust an SSD with an O/S on it, to store so much as my cooking recipes... Too much caching going on. Data loss without RAID on an SSD is simply a matter of time. An HDD, even failed, has a FAR higher likelihood of data recovery, in EVERY scenario I have encountered in my career. Fast Yes. Reliable, No. I can get a raided set of HDD to go 10+ years... I can get a raided set of SDDs to go about 3. As far as bang for the buck and hours of overall operation, I'll stick with my Red Badge SATA HDDs in RAID, thank you.

    1. Re:Unless RAID is used... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Steve, you must be buying Junk SSD's. I have used Intel and Samsung with 0 failures for years. If you want something to read about SSD's you should read this:

      http://techreport.com/review/27909/the-ssd-endurance-experiment-theyre-all-dead

    2. Re:Unless RAID is used... by Gaygirlie · · Score: 2

      Sounds like projections more than knowledge. At least in my own experience it's the total opposite: my old laptop, my new laptop, my desktop, my partner's old laptop, new laptop and desktop -- they all run the OS and all applications, aside from games, from the SSD, without a single problem. Not one, single corrupted file, let alone a single broken SSD. And the SSDs I use are all from the lowest-end, cheap-as-chips ones.

    3. Re:Unless RAID is used... by ledow · · Score: 2

      As an IT Manager for over 15 years, I call bullshit.

      RAID arrays running on drives shouldn't be allowed to approach anywhere near 10 years. You're dangerous. And, anecdotally, I've yet to see a set of drives get through 5 year renewals without at least one failure, and often more (I have replaced about 10 failed server drives out of 100 in various RAID sets this year alone - nothing older than 4 years, and anything older than 2 is in "non-critical" devices). In fact, it's the highest failure rate on hardware I manage, and I manage about a quarter of a million pounds worth of server estate just in this job alone.

      Several hundred clients, bought at the cheapest possible rate and even "end-of-line" stock, I have a failure rate of 1 or 2 a year.

      SSD's - zero failures. I'm seriously considering all-SSD upgrades for every client as they come in the door, and full replacement of all existing client devices.

      Sure, my backup sets, my servers (IBM BladeCentres), my arrays, will stay HDD because that's the only supported configuration for most of them and because they do a LOT MORE writes than the clients, but there's no reason to suspect that won't change next time I refresh.

      And the reason I have my job? The last guy didn't backup adequately. A RAID failed. The second and third disks failed when resyncing. Everything was lost. A disk recovery firm got about 75% of everything back, but that was from the still-working disks - they paid £15k and got nothing back from the dead disks. They had to claw back some data from CLIENT machines, they lost so much.

      In my experience, a dead drive is dead. Throw it in the bin and forget about it. I wouldn't have paid a company to try and recover anything, I'd have called it lost and spent £15k on finding a better guy to run their network, and a decent backup set. SSDs and USB sticks are no different in this regard to HDDs. A failure is a failure is a failure. Forget it, replace it, move on with your other copies.

      There's a reason that on my wall there's a plaque with several hard drives with covers removed and data recovery stickers over them.

      Underneath is the best pseudo-Latin I could come up with: "Cogito Ergo Facsimile" - "I think, therefore I make copies".

      Disks are no less reliable than SSDs. I'm not even going to go near saying that SSDs are signficantly better - I don't have the data longevity to know that. But failure rates are already dropping just by putting SSDs where HDDs were. But they're not measurably worse.

      And RAID is a really bad use case for SSDs unless you buy properly. RAIDs rewrite themselves all the time, and force minor writes to hit all disks. IBM offer a SSD option, but the disks cost 10 times as much as their approved 15k drives, presumably because of the write impact.

      And I don't even want to think what you think SSDs cache that HDDs don't. And writing to chips from a capacitor backup (your SSDs do have backup, yes? Your RAIDs have BBUs, yes?) on an SSD is feasible. Writing to a spinning disk before power dies requires external RAID cards with big batteries.

      Anything OUTSIDE the drive (i.e. synced filesystems, RAID-BBU, etc.) is common to both technologies and should be in place if you CARE about that stuff.

      I've been seeing dead HDD ever since the days of the 286.
      I'll come back and tell you when I see my first, dead SSD.

  8. Samsung predicts SSD prices collisions by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 2

    Basically Samsung is saying there is no risk of having an SSD price explosion.

    --
    Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
  9. Pre-installed HDD win on cost every time by magarity · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We asked Samsung why desktop PC penetration is so low

    All the big PC vendors see SSD as a huge markup and thus don't sell anywhere near what they could if they priced more reasonably. Instead of the upgrade to SSD being the retail price of the SSD minus the OEM cost of the HDD, the upgrade option is usually a good margin way over the retail cost of an SSD and never mind the cost of the HDD they would replace it with.

  10. HDD NOT going away any time soon by Espectr0 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wake me up when a SSD doesn't cost 10 times as much as a HDD for the same capacity.

    Really, common users see a unit that costs 70$ (seagate 2TB 7200RPM) versus one that costs 550$ or more (crucial 2TB SSD, samsung's is 10x the listed HDD price) and they will gladly save their money.

    I bought a crucial 500GB 2 years ago for little over 220$, and today the same drive is about 120$. So they are going down, but as more people adopt SSD, the HDD's price will go down as well.

    1. Re:HDD NOT going away any time soon by Kjella · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Really, common users see a unit that costs 70$ (seagate 2TB 7200RPM) versus one that costs 550$ or more (crucial 2TB SSD, samsung's is 10x the listed HDD price) and they will gladly save their money.

      Assuming the common user actually needs 2TB of storage space and doesn't care about the speed of booting or launching applications. Common users either use streaming services or torrent & delete after watching it, they're not trying to archive the Internet. They snap a few pics and make some funny clips with their phone but they're not photo or videos buffs with ten thousand photos and hours of raw footage to store. And many of them now use the cloud as backup, say what you will but they do. HDDs don't really scale down, you get a 1TB HDD to the price of a 120GB SSD but you can't get a 120GB HDD cheaper.

      I wouldn't buy a machine with only HDD today, I got one laptop that I rarely use that is like that and it runs like a sloth in slow motion. And if you go the HDD+SSD route you're looking at the minimum price of both a HDD and a SSD. I'd say up to 250GB of storage I just wouldn't bother with a HDD anymore, above that I'd get a SDD for the stuff you use often and as big a HDD as you need. And possibly one for local backup, for a common user I wouldn't bother with RAID as software bugs, user error and crypto viruses would destroy all copies. Of course if you're in the geek squad you might have a ZFS storage pool with lots of disks, snapshots and whatnot. Good for you, but you're hardly the common user.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    2. Re:HDD NOT going away any time soon by fluffernutter · · Score: 2

      Talking about the common Facebook/Gmail/Netflix user on Slashdot? Is that even allowed?

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    3. Re:HDD NOT going away any time soon by jedidiah · · Score: 2

      Yeah... only 3x more.

      You really have forgotten where you are.

      --
      A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  11. Next Milestone? RAM by somenickname · · Score: 3, Interesting

    At some point these things could conceivably reach speeds comparable to RAM. If you think of RAM as mostly a mechanism to hide the latency of the disk then, in the not so distant future, it could become redundant (and even a performance bottleneck). It should be interesting to see what kind of software and hardware paradigms come out of that.

  12. Re:Next Milestone? RAM by TeknoHog · · Score: 2

    If you think of RAM as mostly a mechanism to hide the latency of the disk then, in the not so distant future, it could become redundant (and even a performance bottleneck).

    I also think of RAM as a way to avoid wearing out SSDs.

    --
    Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
  13. NVMe vs. SATA by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 2

    NVMe (Non-Volatile Memory express) is an alternative interface to SATA, PATA, IDE, SCSI that connects via PCI-express. The biggest advantages are that it's much faster and utilizes a common bus, PCIe. The reason this is good is because it means that any existing device with a PCIe bus but no SATA bus have a means of permanent storage that doesn't have to be added to the motherboard. For anyone interested in a libre software/firmware computer, that means one less major component with it's own software stack. Less components and one less cable means less things can fail in your computer resulting more reliable systems. If you're worried about software support, don't be, it's been around for quite a while and is supported by all the major and many minor Operating Systems.

    tl;dr: NVMe is FTW in all ways. SATA is old FAIL.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
  14. Re:Next Milestone? RAM by m.dillon · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Yes, but that is what the XPoint technology is trying to address. The NVMe technology is not designed to operate like ram and the latencies are still very high. Nominal NVMe latency for a random access is 15-30uS. The performance (1.5-3.0 GBytes/sec for normal and 5 GBytes/sec+ for high-end NVMe devices, reading) comes from the multi-queue design allowing many requests to be queued at the same time.

    Very few workloads would be able to attain the required request concurrency to actually max-out a NVMe device. You have to have something like 64-128 random requests outstanding to max-out the bandwidth (fewer for sequential). Server-side services have no problem doing this, but very few consumer apps can take full advantage of it.

    The NVMe design is thus more akin to being a fast storage controller and should not be considered similar to a dynamic ram controller in terms of performance capability.

    Because of the request concurrency required to actually attain the high read capability of a NVMe device, people shouldn't throw away their SATA SSDs just yet. Most SATA SSDs will actually have higher write bandwidth than low-end NVMe devices (particularly small form factor NVMe devices). And for a lot of (particularly consumer) workloads, the NVMe SSD will not be a whole lot faster.

    That said, I really love NVMe, particularly when configured as swap and/or a swap-based disk cache. And I love it even more as a primary filesystem. It's so fast that I've had to redesign numerous code paths in DragonFlyBSD to be able to take full advantage of it. For example, the buffer cache and VM page queue (pageout demon) code was never designed for a data read rate of 5 GBytes/sec. Think about what 5+ GBytes/sec of new file-backed VM pages being instantiated per second does to normal VM page queue algorithms which normally only keep a few hundred megabytes of completely free pages in PG_FREE. The pageout demon couldn't recycle pages fast enough to keep up!

    Its a nice problem to have :-)

    -Matt

  15. Re:NVMe is excellent by m.dillon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Unless the project has only one source file, compiling isn't really single-thread bound. Most projects can be built make -j N. When we do bulk builds, that's what we see happening most of the time so with very few exceptions your project builds should be able to make use of many cpu cores at once.

    The few exceptions are: (1) The link phase is typically a choke point and serializes to one thread, and (2) Certain source files might be so large relative to the others that everything else finishes and the build is twiddling its thumbs waiting for that one 200,000 line source file to finish compiling before it can move on to the link phase.

    One other note - Builds are like 99.9% cpu driven. Storage bandwidth is almost irrelevant because there is almost no I/O involved in doing a build vs the cpu time required. Source files are already likely cached in memory. Temporary files don't last long enough to even have a chance to get written to disk (if not using tmpfs), and object files and executables are tiny relative to available storage bandwidth and asynchronously flushed as well (so nobody has to wait on them to be flushed to disk).

    So, for example, when we do a bulk build of all 24000+ applications in ports, we use tmpfs mounts for all temporary files and our disk I/O is almost non-existent throughout the process. The only time we see busy storage is during maximum peak load when the running compiler binaries exceed available ram and the system pages a bit (you have to allow this in order to optimize the non-peak portions of the build to ensure that all system resources are fully utilized throughout the entire 22-hour-long bulk build).

    -Matt