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CIA 'Siren Servers' Can Predict Social Uprisings Several Days Before They Happen (sociable.co)

Posted by BeauHD on from the predict-the-future dept.

Through a combination of machine learning and deep learning, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is using powerful supercomputers, dubbed "Siren Servers" by computer philosophy writer Jaron Lanier, to predict social unrest days before it happens. The Sociable reports: CIA Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Andrew Hallman announced that the agency has beefed-up its "anticipatory intelligence" through the use of deep learning and machine learning servers that can process an incredible amount of data. "We have, in some instances, been able to improve our forecast to the point of being able to anticipate the development of social unrest and societal instability some I think as near as three to five days out," said Hallman on Tuesday at the Federal Tech event, Fedstival. The CIA deputy director said that it was "much harder to convey confidence for the policymaker who may make an important decision from advanced analytics with deep learning algorithms." Now that the CIA claims to be able to predict social unrest days in advance, there are some interesting theoretical possibilities that can come of this. One is that the CIA's siren servers will become so efficient that they will predict all social uprising and will be able to prevent it. If they are successful in doing that, there would be no need for the CIA as their technology could predict and prevent any societal upheavals, and the agency would be obsolete. Another potential outcome would be that the CIA could use the data and not tell anyone, just like the finance sector did, and then make calculated decisions on whether or not to intervene in any socially distressing situation.

9 of 174 comments (clear)

  1. Of course by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's easy to predict things you are the cause of.

  2. I don't think so by jenningsthecat · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If they are successful in doing that, there would be no need for the CIA as their technology could predict and prevent any societal upheavals...

    The authors are utterly naive if they think that the CIA's primary role is intelligence gathering, or that they even care overly much about quelling "societal upheavals". The spooks are at least as much about manipulating situations and people, and about spreading disinformation, (not to mention ensuring the Agency's continued existence), as they are about preventing any grief except their own. "Anticipatory Intelligence" is just a tool that allows them to carry on a faster, more efficient, more effective, more lucrative version of 'business as usual'.

    I'd be very interested to hear Edward Snowden weigh in on this.

    --
    'The Economy' is a giant Ponzi scheme whose most pitiable suckers are the youngest among us and the yet-unborn.
  3. What if... by wbr1 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Hypothetical...if this is possible..

    What if the 'social upheaval' is justified? What if it is technically allowed by the 1st amendment? What if they tell the president that riots are due to start in xyz town and move in the National Guard, even though those riots are due to true injustice that needs to be addressed?

    Can the government stop speech before it happens? What does that leave for the already shattered remnants of democracy?

    --
    Silence is a state of mime.
    1. Re:What if... by Kjella · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What do you mean if? Go back and watch "Selma" and you'll see that even in the 1960s they were looking to identify the movers and shakers and where they were going to stir up trouble with wiretaps. This is the same on steroids, same way stock robots try to analyze if people generally talk positive or negative about a stock without really understanding the news. If it's building up to a frenzy and a riot, there will have to be a lot of buzz in social media up front. Without knowing what they exactly are, I'm sure that with big data you'll find the words or phrases that indicate it's really going down and not just a bunch of keyboard warriors talking big. And the level of coordination required means you'll have the where and when repeated many times to many different people.

      What you choose to do about it really depends on who you are, what you want and what you're capable of. Maybe you just want to keep the situation under control, maybe you want it to get out of control so you can justify coming in to crush it, maybe you want to arrest a few leaders and scare people from showing up in the first place. The last one would actually be the creepiest, crushing riots is public and messy. Snuffing them out before they even start is silent but deadly. If you're a foreign intelligence agency though, would you like to warn about it to allies? Incite riots in unfriendly states? Who knows. On the other hand, the speed information spreads might also lead to bigger and faster flash mobs than before so I'm not sure if it's really easier or harder to get the word out.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  4. Not again... by burtosis · · Score: 4, Insightful

    First they take 1984 and treat it like a user manual and now they are attempting to go full on minority report pre-crime? It's getting harder and harder to just laugh off that dystopian future.

  5. how is this beneficial? by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 3, Insightful

    honest question: how does this help general society? the way i see it, if people are so pissed off all the time that you can't tell if you are about to fubar things then you have no business being in any position of authority.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
  6. Re:Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    When predicting weather the false positives matter.
    When predicting the people standing up against the government it doesn't. You just shut them down hard, regardless of if they are actually trying or not.

  7. Re:Shooting innocent unarmed black man by infolation · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The human race has already developed cheap, portable supercomputers, many time more powerful than the CIA's 'supercomputer' that are expert at predicting social unrest. I have one in my possession right now.

    By simply 'walking' around the target district and simply 'talking' to people, you'll get a pretty good sense of whether social unrest is going to happen.

    Why does everything need to be done by remote control using computers?

  8. For several reasons by waspleg · · Score: 5, Insightful

    - Agents sent to the field might be swayed by emotional or logical appeals.

    - Remote surveillance means a permanent record and centralized control of both the data and the people using it.

    - Social unrest is a threat to a police state and the status quo so "they" are doing everything to quell those things before they become popular enough to affect change.

    - To paraphrase Alan Watts, all big institutions exist for themselves and their own continued existence and not the people they purport to serve. Remote everything plays to the military industrial complex's strengths. The machine intends to stay in power.