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Elon Musk Predicts Automation Will Lead To A Universal Basic Income (mashable.com)
An anonymous reader quotes Mashable's new article about Tesla/SpaceX founder Elon Musk:
Tech innovators in the self-driving car and AI industries talk a lot about how many human jobs will be innovated out of existence, but they rarely explain what will happen to all those newly jobless humans. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Musk said that he believes the solution to taking care of human workers who are displaced by robots and software is creating a (presumably government-backed) universal basic income for all. "There's a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," said Musk. "I'm not sure what else one would do. That's what I think would happen."
And what will this world look like? "People will have time to do other things, more complex things, more interesting things," Musk told CNBC's interviewer. "Certainly more leisure time." President Obama has also talked about "redesigning the social compact" with MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito, and in August predicted the question of whether there's support for the Universal Basic Income is "a debate that we'll be having over the next 10 or 20 years."
And what will this world look like? "People will have time to do other things, more complex things, more interesting things," Musk told CNBC's interviewer. "Certainly more leisure time." President Obama has also talked about "redesigning the social compact" with MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito, and in August predicted the question of whether there's support for the Universal Basic Income is "a debate that we'll be having over the next 10 or 20 years."
C'mon, the rich are going to insist on low taxes, companies aint paying for shit if they can get away with it - where does that leave the tax base to impliment a UBI then?
Hint - There wont be one!
Enough with the UBI bullshit, because unless you can get the tax abse to impliment it, it's a pipedream. Face it, the newly jobless will be fucked unless new industries are created and umm.... exactly where are tose jobs coming from?
Let me put forth a simple challenge: based on the budget data of 2015 for your own country, show where the money is going to come from.
The final equation should show this: (number of recipients) * (yearly sum paid) = (total income state) - (other expenditures state)
Show the following ***numbers*** (i.e. no handwaving):
- Number of recipients: this is either the total number of adults, or the total number of people (i.e. adults and children). Tell us how many there are.
- Yearly sum paid: this is what each recipient gets paid every year. How much will this be? What is considered a reasonable amount to live on in your country?
- Total income state: this is how much money the state drags in every year. This is usually only taxes but sometimes also include things like oil sales. Show what tax pressure looks like for the average person. If you plan to tax people who receive _only_ UBI, show how much they have left to live on after taxes.
- Other expenditures state: this includes such things as education, healthcare, having an army, building roads, etc. This figure should pretty much be the same as it is today.
Most of these discussions end with a bit of handwaving and a vague statement like "oh, the other 2 trillion will come out of improved efficiency", which is plainly ridiculous (it's more than the whole nation spends on salaries combined). This makes me suspect the proponents of UBI have not actually sat down and done the math, despite this being fairly straightforward.
If you do these things you will quickly find that either UBI will be far, far too small to live on, or that there is a very significant shortfal on the income side.
UBI may be a great idea. We have lots of great ideas, as a species, but unfortunately not all of those ideas can be realistically realized.
Umm, no.
Total income in the US is about $15T. If that were divided evenly between all US citizens, we'd get about $45K each, annually.
Which is certainly more than average now (if you exclude places like Silly Valley and such), but it wouldn't be enough to allow for a 15-hour workweek.
On the other hand, increasing automation will push us in the direction of a shorter workweek, once production reaches the point that everyone on the planet has a reasonable income....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
Number of fulltime workers in US: 124.73 million. Source.
Pot to be divvied up: $15 trillion.
Share per worker: $120,259. That's a tad more than $45k.
Work gives one a sense of pride in accomplishment and soaks up our time. It is a social activity that matures us through forced interaction with many other different people. It gives a sense of belonging and inclusion. It stabilizes us. And when did a "basic income" afford anyone the means to enjoy life, to do "other things?" Will we all go deep sea fishing? How about taking up flying? Travel the world? No, more likely we will end up eating biscuits of indeterminable composition and sitting in our tin-roofed hovels in our burlap sacks. It takes much more than merely food and shelter and clothing to satisfy the broad human motivation array, and a basic income will not allow that. Thus, there will be massive discontent and violence. Not to be religious, but how long have we known that "idle hands are the devil's workshop."
E Proelio Veritas.