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Morgan Stanley: Pixel Phone Will Generate Google Almost $4 Billion In Revenue Next Year (9to5google.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from 9to5Google: With initial Pixel pre-orders exceeding expectations and promising activation numbers from Verizon, Google is on track to sell three million phones with revenues of $2 billion in 2016. The Morgan Stanley estimate comes as the Pixel reportedly captured 10% of the premium smartphone market in India. Unsurprisingly, the 128GB Pixel XL has the largest gross profit margin at 25%, while the cheapest 32GB Pixel is at 22%. Morgan Stanley also estimates that, compared to the iPhone, the Pixel will be half as profitable. Morgan Stanley expects Google to sell 5-6 million Pixel and Pixel XL devices in 2017 to the tune of $3.8 billion in revenue. Google is also expected to make money from increased usage of services like Android Pay and mobile search. Google's big gains were possibly due in part to Samsung's Note 7 debacle, with the company's marketshare falling to 23%. Apple captured the number one position at 66%. Additionally, Google benefitted from running a number of promotions, including cashback and exchange programs. The company also heavily advertised in newspapers, with billboards, and for the first time displays in large retail stores.

41 of 66 comments (clear)

  1. Re:iPhone by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

    Okay so... no iOS and no Android. Didn't Microsoft leave the smartphone business a few months ago?

    What's left apart from regular, non-smart cellphones?

  2. Re:iPhone by 110010001000 · · Score: 1, Funny

    100% correct. #peoplewithblackturtlenecksmatter

  3. Re:iPhone by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    Motorola StarTAC.

  4. Re:iPhone by sexconker · · Score: 2

    Nothing viable in the modern market or in the near future, as far as I can see. It really fucking sucks. I went from being an enthusiastic early adopter of smartphones (well before the iPhone) to being a jaded, hateful pile of salt.

  5. Re:iPhone by 110010001000 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I just can't believe that people are paying these prices for phones. The Pixel XL is $870! Probably the iPhone 7 is similar. Seriously? For a phone?

  6. Verizon Only... by BulletMagnet · · Score: 2

    Wonder what that final number would have been had they released it across all carriers and not just Verizon....

    1. Re:Verizon Only... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's not Verizon only. Their advertising is very misleading. I do wonder, though, if they would have sold more if fewer people were mislead about that.

  7. Hmmm... by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Seems a bit early to speculate. Tons of preorders may be good, or may cause the whole thing to disappear if it fails to live up to expectations.

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    Your ad here. Ask me how!
  8. Re:iPhone by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

    People that matter use iPhones.

    Right, because moms matter.

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    When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  9. Re:iPhone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    their customers are really the advertisers they sell all their data to

    Sigh. Google does not sell data to advertisers. Google sells targeted eyeballs to advertisers. The user data is both safer and more valuable if Google keeps it.

  10. Re:real open source by EzInKy · · Score: 2

    Mine, after nearly 7 years of daily use, sadly is on its last legs. And to be honest it never was 100% true "open source". Nothing available now that I know of comes even close though. Someone I know bragged about having 64gb of storage, I've had that like for near 7 years now. And if I needed more all I have to do was swap out the memory card. And I really don't get this slim fetish.

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    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  11. Re:iPhone by Gussington · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I just can't believe that people are paying these prices for phones. The Pixel XL is $870! Probably the iPhone 7 is similar. Seriously? For a phone?

    $870 over two years is just over $1/day. Most people spend more than that on a coffee or newspaper. Which one offers more value?

  12. Re:iPhone by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    A newspaper. Maybe then you will stop staring at your fucking phone and read a little about life.

  13. Re:real open source by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

    Well, maybe this one from Nokia[1] will be good. Maybe it will have sdcard, unlockable rom, decent battery life, good radio. Who knows.

    [1] The real Finnish company, not the Microsoft zombie

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    When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  14. Does that mean they fill fix the bluetooth issues? by sonstone · · Score: 1

    Hopefully with those numbers they can fix the bluetooth problems. Sigh...

  15. Re:iPhone by rahvin112 · · Score: 2

    When you buy that similar phone on contract from your carrier for $200 you are paying that plus about 20%. Monthly cellular costs are vastly inflated by the monthly charge this adds to the bill. As an example, a typical no frills family plan for two people is going to cost you around $120 with all the taxes. I'm paying roughly $70 with GoogleFi because they don't add in the phone costs automatically and when you do request the payment plan and they do include the cost it's properly itemized and only you pay it not every subscriber. And though I paid $870x2 upfront my monthly bill is $50 cheaper. In two years I'll have paid significantly less then if I'd gotten the same thing using the standard pay $2-300 per phone upfront and pay an extra $50 a month for two years.

    Though I would have preferred a price that was as cheap as the Nexus phones the Pixel in my opinion is worth the cost even given the negatives (no SD card). And Google Fi make it even better.

  16. Re:Microsoft smartphone business by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    Microsoft may have left the smartphone hardware business, but as far as I know, they are still in it for the OS business. https://www.bing.com/search?q=...

  17. Re:And apparently you're wrong on hardware, too by hackwrench · · Score: 1
  18. Re:iPhone by TheGratefulNet · · Score: 1

    I see all the millennials walking down the street, staring at their phones and not where they are walking. I never see anyone walking and reading a newspaper or book while on the street.

    maybe darwin is listening and we can thin out the crufty herd a bit ....

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    "It is now safe to switch off your computer."
  19. Re:real open source by TheGratefulNet · · Score: 2

    fuck nokia and also ericcson. both scandinavian companies and both, in the US, drug-test their employees.

    both those companies are on my do-not-buy list. I disagree with what they consider important and so I will not give my money to them for any reason, if I can help it.

    some people don't care, but when I find companies that follow ultra conservative ideals and force them on their employees, that really pisses me off and I have no desire to buy their products.

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    "It is now safe to switch off your computer."
  20. Re: iPhone by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    If you want to say #jobsmatter, why in so many words?

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    Ezekiel 23:20
  21. Re:real open source by EzInKy · · Score: 1

    Nope, not a chance. I see no mention of an integrated hardware keyboard, and it is less open the Harmatten. Open is open. Manufacturers dictating control is not open. Nokia cam close with the N900, all that was needed was someone to take it just that small step forward.

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    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  22. Re:real open source by EzInKy · · Score: 1

    How is your "do not spy list" shaping up? Of course your privacy may not be as valuable to you as it is to others.

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    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  23. Re:iPhone by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

    Sigh. Google does not sell data to advertisers. Google sells targeted eyeballs to advertisers. The user data is both safer and more valuable if Google keeps it.

    No, Google does not sell to advertisers. Because Google IS the advertiser. They own practically all the advertising networks, have re-jigged their privacy policies to ensure data sharing takes place between all of them (Google Text Ads, YouTube, etc will share data with Alphabet companies like DoubleClick, so everything you do online will affect the ads you see).

    Google sells access to eyeballs.

  24. Re:iPhone by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

    Plus, even if I were to buy the most expensive Pixel, I tend to keep my phones for quite a while (over three years for my current model and going strong). So, I'm probably paying under a buck a day for the phone, and another two for my data plan. For that, I get a:

    * phone
    * texting / messenger client
    * e-mail client
    * mobile web browser
    * GPS navigation device
    * Kindle reader
    * camera / video recorder
    * video player
    * music player
    * calendar
    * videogame player
    * alarm clock
    * flashlight
    * compass
    * and much more

    ... all in one convenient, portable device more powerful than supercomputers of a few decades ago. It's not a bad deal, if you ask me.

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    Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
  25. Re:iPhone by nospam007 · · Score: 1

    "$870 over two years is just over $1/day. Most people spend more than that on a coffee or newspaper. Which one offers more value?"

    You're right. Newspapers have real news while smartphones have fake ones, which are much funnier.

  26. Re:iPhone by jareth-0205 · · Score: 1

    Delivery medium != content. You know that these newfangled devices can contain books and newspapers now? Or is bring printed on paper somehow morally superior?

  27. Re:iPhone by jareth-0205 · · Score: 1

    Yeah. Maybe they can read news on the internet or something.

  28. Re: iPhone by dnaumov · · Score: 1

    It's a computer that can make calls (which I almost never use). I paid just over 1000â for mine.

  29. Re:iPhone by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

    A newspaper. Maybe then you will stop staring at your fucking phone and read a little about life.

    Yeah, people running around on the streets looking at their newspapers will make the world a much safer place.

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    Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  30. Re:iPhone by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

    "$870 over two years is just over $1/day. Most people spend more than that on a coffee or newspaper. Which one offers more value?"

    You're right. Newspapers have real news while smartphones have fake ones, which are much funnier.

    Even if you exclude tabloids from newspapers, not really.

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    Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  31. Re:iPhone by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

    They have those on the internet now.

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    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  32. Re:real open source by Maritz · · Score: 1

    Cue a bunch of posts from PHBs telling you they won't hire you because you're a dropout in 3, 2, 1... ;)

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    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  33. Re:iPhone by nightfire-unique · · Score: 1

    You ain't be readin' about life in a newspaper.

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    A government is a body of people notably ungoverned - AC
  34. So there is a premium Android market... by EndlessNameless · · Score: 1

    I don't consider Samsung phones "premium" because their UI is a downgrade from stock Android, and their innovation mostly consists of useless hardware gimmicks.

    Looks good, just not $800 good---which is what I say about most premium products.

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    According to the latest ruleset, this post should be modded as Vorpal Flamebait +5.
  35. Real question by slapout · · Score: 1

    Does it have a headset jack?

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    Coder's Stone: The programming language quick ref for iPad
  36. Re:iPhone by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

    I just can't believe that people are paying these prices for phones. The Pixel XL is $870! Probably the iPhone 7 is similar. Seriously? For a phone?

    Especially because of the limited support - Google's support for the Pixel phones is 2 years of updates, and after that it's a year of security updates. (Nexus phones had 18 months from the last available sale on the Play store - which is why they had the 5P and 6X phones - they were released pretty much by month 18 when the Nexus 5 and 6 disappeared).

    Of course, then there's Apple's rather legendary software update schedule which at least makes the iPhone 7 supported for many years...

  37. Re:iPhone by exomondo · · Score: 1

    I just can't believe that people are paying these prices for phones. The Pixel XL is $870! Probably the iPhone 7 is similar. Seriously? For a phone?

    If what you want is just a phone then no, you wouldn't be paying that much because you can get a phone for much much cheaper than that.

  38. Re:iPhone by Gussington · · Score: 1

    I see all the millennials walking down the street, staring at their phones and not where they are walking. I never see anyone walking and reading a newspaper or book while on the street.

    Did it ever occur to you that they are reading the newspaper or book on their device?

  39. Re:iPhone by Gussington · · Score: 1

    * and much more

    ... all in one convenient, portable device more powerful than supercomputers of a few decades ago. It's not a bad deal, if you ask me.

    It's a great deal which is why $1000 phones are still popular.

  40. Re:iPhone by Gussington · · Score: 1

    Newspapers have real news while smartphones have fake ones, which are much funnier.

    Every news agency has an online presence. So with the phone you get a phone and newspaper (and a GPS, and a camera, and email, and a banking system, and a gaming machine, almost unlimited content etc etc), whereas with the newspaper you only get the newspaper. And they cost about the same. And you think it's the phone that is priced too high?