Slashdot Mirror


Microsoft Researchers Offer Predictions For AI, Deep Learning (theverge.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Verge: Microsoft polled 17 women working in its research organization about the technology advances they expect to see in 2017, as well as a decade later in 2027. The researchers' predictions touch on natural language processing, machine learning, agricultural software, and virtual reality, among other topics. For virtual reality, Mar Gonzalez Franco, a researcher in Microsoft's Redmond lab, believes body tracking will improve next year, and then over the next decade we'll have "rich multi-sensorial experiences that will be capable of producing hallucinations which blend or alter perceives reality." Haptic devices will simulate touch to further enhance the sensory experience. Meanwhile, Susan Dumais, a scientist and deputy managing director at the Redmond lab, believes deep learning will help improve web search results next year. In 2027, however, the search box will disappear, she says. It'll be replaced by search that's more "ubiquitous, embedded, and contextually sensitive." She says we're already seeing some of this in voice-controlled searches through mobile and smart home devices. We might eventually be able to look things up with either sound, images, or video. Plus, our searches will respond to "current location, content, entities, and activities" without us explicitly mentioning them, she says. Of course, it's worth noting that Microsoft has been losing the search box war to Google, so it isn't surprising that the company thinks search will die. With global warming as a looming threat, Asta Roseway, principal research designer, says by 2027 famers will use AI to maintain healthy crop yields, even with "climate change, drought, and disaster." Low-energy farming solutions, like vertical farming and aquaponics, will also be essential to keeping the food supply high, she says. You can view all 17 predictions here.

14 of 102 comments (clear)

  1. Microsoft polled 17 women by Nutria · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Flip the gender, and watch the outraged accusations of sexism.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    1. Re:Microsoft polled 17 women by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Flip the gender and it wouldn't be noted.

    2. Re:Microsoft polled 17 women by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 2

      Flip the gender, and watch the outraged accusations of sexism.

      I'm watching the outrage now. Why did you think I would need to flip the gender to see it?

  2. Microsoft polled 17 women ... by CaptainDork · · Score: 3, Funny

    ... because that's all they have.

    --
    It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.
  3. What does THAT have to do with anything? by aristotheron · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The fact that they ask only women implies there is some reason to do that,
    Yet we are left to guess at what that reason is.
    The most obvious is that women have a better opinion.
    How is that supportable? Why would they?

    This is the kind of thing people get slapped in the face with every day but never draw any conclusions from because the obvious conclusion is forbidden socially (forbidden by the media/education system (everyone sees it therefore it's morally correct and the truth)).

    Obviously there is a unified agenda across all aspects of society to enforce the idea that women are equal to or better than men in all aspects of skill and knowledge and potential. The fact that this idea has to be enforced implies that it is not supported by truth. It implies the actual results of women professionals do not fit the narrative.

    If not that, what else?

    But for some people truth is what is commonplace. They assume everything around them has been vetted by nature or God or by better people. Just the fact that it exists to them is proof of its veracity.
    These people do not understand the world. They don't understand the invention of falsehood or its applications.

    1. Re:What does THAT have to do with anything? by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The fact that they ask only women implies there is some reason to do that,
      Yet we are left to guess at what that reason is.
      The most obvious is that women have a better opinion.
      How is that supportable? Why would they?

      Why are we left to guess at the reason? It is explicitly discussed in the source article.

      [Women] account for less than 20 percent of computer science graduates in 34 OECD countries
      ...
      One issue sometimes cited for the dearth of women in computing fields is the lack of professional role models who could inspire girls to pursue their STEM dreams. We've attempted to counteract this by asking 17 women within Microsoft's global research organization their views on what's likely to occur in their fields in 2017.

      No, it's not that they think that women's opinions are better than those of men. Nor is it some direct attack against men. Since that idea came from your imagination, there is no need to get hot under the collar about it and attribute bad motives for to the authors of the study.

      So remember the next time you feel that the world is out to get you and that the media hides the "obvious conclusions", that it is all in your head. Your own feelings of persecution have coloured your view of the world.

    2. Re: What does THAT have to do with anything? by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 2

      Why not say "17 people"?

      What part of wanting to inspire girls do you not understand? No, you just saw the word "women" and decided to take offense.

    3. Re: What does THAT have to do with anything? by Nutria · · Score: 2

      Honestly: how many girls are going to see this, much less be inspired by it?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    4. Re:What does THAT have to do with anything? by javilon · · Score: 2

      My feeling is that this is a PR stunt. Basically they give the opinions from 17 people at MS that happen to belong to a "minority" group (in IT). They want to show the world that they do have female researchers.

      Problem is, the headline says "MS researchers offer predictions..." where it should read "MS female researchers offer predictions...". Why? because if you just say "researchers" people will assume the selection criteria to be "top researchers".

      Its like you ask to "offer predictions" to those MS researchers born on a day that happens to be a prime number. The result will not be as solid as if you ask the "top researchers", right?

      --


      When his defense asked, "Which computer has Jon Johansen trespassed upon?" the answer was: "His own."
    5. Re: What does THAT have to do with anything? by tsqr · · Score: 2

      The stats are there for anyone who cares enough to search them out. But you've moved the goalposts. You originally claimed that girls don't use FB, which is demonstrably untrue. Now you're shifting to "most girls use other platforms"; this may well be so, but is a different matter that I wouldn't have taken issue with.

  4. Re:Easy by infolation · · Score: 2
    Which reminds me of the '10 year predictions' section of O'Reilly's 'Lean UX':

    I once spoke to a company who had commissioned... an extrapolation of what the next 10 years would look like in their industry... You can guess what happened over the succeeding 10 years: absolutely nothing... And in fact, 10 years later, the room no longer looks futuristic. Against all odds, its forecasts turned out to be largely accurate. And yet, the company had failed to commercialize even one of the recommendations in the attendant specification document. So I asked the company what they planned to do next; they told me they were going back to the original designers and asking them to forecast the next 10 years! The company blamed their engineers and managers for their failure to commercialize, not the designers.

  5. You have got to be joking by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    *virtue_signal*I don't mind these are all women, I think it's great.*virtue_signal*

    However, how many times on Facebook now have I seen an image of "Tumps Economic Team" noting that it's all men and a few of them named Steve to boot? (Never mind that he has already appointed a few women for various roles, or that he won the election because of a team of women)

    You seriously do not think MS would be roasted if in this ay and age they came out with a think piece like this, all from men?

    Heck, you are doing that RIGHT NOW.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  6. Did they make any predictions about Windows 10? by iampiti · · Score: 2

    I guess that in 2027 it will still spy you without the user being able to disable that.

  7. Re:Easy by mlts · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What I read from their predictions, especially the gig economy and getting more people into coding is that development work as a whole is commoditized, similar to meat packing, or textile making. It is done at the cheapest country worldwide, by the lowest bidders, for only the time it takes to write that module. This makes anything related to CS paying so little that it isn't worth getting into, with the earnings likely being less than working at a fast food joint.

    This already is happening. Unless there is a specific industry like embedded programming or programming for a contract that the code can't be bought from the cheapest coding house in the world, the work goes offshore, and if someone has to do things in this country, it is contracted to a H-1B firm.

    With this in mind, who in their right mind would want to go into development, unless they are in some niche that is very narrow and requires years of expertise. Even then, there is always the mindset of "it builds with stubs, ship it, fix after release" that is common in the industry.