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Why Did Japan Just Ratify The TPP? (businesstimes.com.sg)
The controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership can't go into effect without U.S. approval, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has acknowledged. Yet despite president-elect Trump's promise to withdraw from the agreement -- Friday Japan's parliament voted to approve it. An anonymous reader quotes the Business Times.
Was last Friday's vote simply a Quixotic tribute to a dying cause or -- as some are asking -- does Mr. Abe know something that others don't? They note that he is the only foreign leader to have met with the anointed heir to the U.S. presidency since the election result was announced. What went on in New York's Trump Tower during that "informal" meeting is unknown but some speculate that there may have been some equally informal -- but nonetheless significant -- dealmaking between the two men on the TPP. This seems quite possible, analysts say, because the TPP is of great importance to Japan and to Mr. Abe's grand design for Japan to remain a pivotal Asia-Pacific power.
The EFF has decried "the intense push to ram Internet issues into international law through the TPP," and complained Friday that Japan's newly-passed law "includes the extension of Japan's copyright term from 50 to 70 years after the death of the author, which makes today a very sad day for Japan's public domain."
And in addition, "There remains a risk that other TPP countries such as Singapore -- and even countries that weren't part of the original deal, such as Taiwan -- will soon also bring their domestic legislation into conformity with the requirements of this dead agreement."
The EFF has decried "the intense push to ram Internet issues into international law through the TPP," and complained Friday that Japan's newly-passed law "includes the extension of Japan's copyright term from 50 to 70 years after the death of the author, which makes today a very sad day for Japan's public domain."
And in addition, "There remains a risk that other TPP countries such as Singapore -- and even countries that weren't part of the original deal, such as Taiwan -- will soon also bring their domestic legislation into conformity with the requirements of this dead agreement."
Abe has used so much political capital and arm-twisting to push through this agreement over a large and diverse group of objecting people and organizations, that it would have gone through just on its own inertia.
And, of course, the LDP hopes that the US of Trump will recognize it both as the rightful owner of Japanese politics, and the obedient servant of the US it has always been.
Also, Trump may well change his stance on the agreement, it isn't like his views on things were ever clear, coherent, well thought-out and consistent.
In fact, it is usually exactly the opposite.
Our completely-unaccountable-to-voters State Department is still trying to get TPP to pass despite the political environment changing around them. Japan ratified because they want a good relationship with the people who will still be in charge when Trump takes office.
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What could possibly go wrong??
It has nothing to do with international affairs, it has one main national goal : taking on the Agricultural Association tht has more money and power than the government. The Japanese Agricultural Association (JA) is a very powerfull association that distorts vast amounts of money from the Japanese farmers like Italian mobsters. Money that the government wants to have but it did not have any means to take on the JA. Until the TPP came around. Nobody here in Japan knows that the TPP is also about copyrights. As far as most people know, it's about agricultural goods and meat coming freely into the country without having all kinds of associations like JA being able to control that.
Did you just call Taiwan a country? China's gonna be pissed!
> Was last Friday's vote simply a Quixotic tribute to a dying cause or -- as some are asking -- does Mr. Abe know something that others don't?
I read something else in this part. Obama killed the TPP because Trump was against it and he couldn't pass it in the lame duck session, so he might as well deny others credit for killing the deal he & Hillary negotiated.
So I assume they're wondering if Abe either knows that Hillary has a non-zero chance or they think Trump could be persuaded to go for it.
Personally, whatever happens, I want this to die and stay dead.
Interesting! I didn't know why Japan had so strong regulations on food imports, but now I do.
On November 18 Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, visited the USA and spoke to Trump.
Abe is now passing Japan's part of the TPP.
Haven't you guys worked out yet that what Trump said before the election and what he is going to do are different things? He's got a very long history of promising various deals and not delivering.
Twelve countries are party to TPP. It only has to be ratified by six in order to become binding (on those six). As currently written, the US and Japan have to be among the six, but certainly the other 11, or some of them, could decide to put it into effect among themselves. TPP can exist without the US, if Japan is included. Heck, the US isn't party to a precursor of TPP, the Transpacific Economic Partnership Agreement.
Also, Trump could have a heart attack tomorrow - he may never become president. After all these years of negotiations, there's no reason for Japan to just drop it, based only on something someone said during a campaign; people say all kinds of things during campaigns. The US could even ratify TPP in 2020, after Trump leaves office. (At least I don't know if any time limit offhand.)
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From this news it looks very much that it is not.
Enjoy the exciting times of the uncertainty of living under the rule of someone who thinks autocracy is a good idea and has few to oppose him. A few months ago The Word of Trump was no TPP, while now it looks like The Word of Trump as uttered to Abe is that there will be a TPP. House and Senate will not stop him and the Supreme Court will be stacked with enough new members to ensure Trump gets his way.
I'm fine with giving Japan nukes if it helps me get to retirement faster. Then I'll move to the Southern Hemisphere.
I suggest reading "On The Beach" about a ship captain retiring to the Southern Hemisphere due to nukes.
Ava Gardner described Melbourne as "the perfect place to make a film about the end of the world."
While he is cosing up to Russia, the latest insults towards China indicate that the latter will be designated as the new hostile nation #1, and the TPP is all about containing and insulating China.
The only reason I think that Japan would have done it, is if they think that the current coup to put Hillary in power by flooding the news with propaganda about "Russian hacking" will definitely succeed, which will result in Hillary signing the TTP into law. I would rather not actually see this happen, considering how horrible the law actually is (Personally I don't like the idea of it killing the Dojinshi industry, not to mention the US jobs and jobs of whatever other modern country joins in). This was more likely a leak than a hack, considering the suspicious death of Seth Rich.
Non sequitur: Your facts are uncoordinated.
You actually believed Trump when he said that? How dumb are you?
Incidentally, this is also part of why the Obama administration, and others before it, wanted a trade agreement - because we want to sell more agricultural products to Japan. The copyright stuff was shoehorned in there by the **AA, and it was an unfortunate side effect, not the initial intent.
Yeah, sadly corruption by the big money permeates the US political system, including the establishment of both parties. And the **AA our good friends just use the system.
The only reason I think that Japan would have done it, is if they think that the current coup to put Hillary in power by flooding the news with propaganda about "Russian hacking" will definitely succeed, which will result in Hillary signing the TTP into law. I would rather not actually see this happen, considering how horrible the law actually is (Personally I don't like the idea of it killing the Dojinshi industry, not to mention the US jobs and jobs of whatever other modern country joins in). This was more likely a leak than a hack, considering the suspicious death of Seth Rich.
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The Japanese Agricultural Association (JA) is a very powerfull association that distorts vast amounts of money from the Japanese farmers like Italian mobsters. Money that the government wants to have but it did not have any means to take on the JA.
Of course not, because the goverment Agricultural Ministry is not in charge of Gundam. We might have finally found out who is, though.
He's already breaking some with his appointments. Why give him a free pass when cries for Hillary to be lock locked up happened any time Goldman Sachs connections were mentioned?
It must be the lefties fault.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
It's amazing the things you can accomplish when you don't have mental illness.
That Donald Trump won the US presidential election doesn't somehow change any of those things.
I think they hope that the US will eventually pass it. There is no time limit as far as I know for ratification on this treaty. So if it takes 10 years to happen then it takes 10 year in their eyes. About playing the long game not the short game. Just like if Congress wanted to they could ratify the Kyoto agreement today even tho it has been over 15 years from the time it came out.
>Hillary lost
I am over that. But I am still not over Bernie losing.
I'm guessing you live in Japan like me, so just wanted to point out for anyone interested that this is pretty much dead on. I would like to point out that it's neglecting the immensely positive push it got from car and electronics companies. If the TPP passed as-is Japanese cars and electronics could easily take over the US market place and would likely decimate the US domestic market. Really it would have been great for Japan, which is why I personally wanted it to pass, but the honest truth is as Trump points out it was an abysmal deal for the US. Personally I hope they just renegotiate it.
It's a figurative expression. I know people round here can be very literal minded but surely as a writer you know better.
As I said, "as currently written, the US and Japan have to be among the six." A new agreement *could* consist of one sentence: "strike the 85% requirement".
Ava Gardner described Melbourne as "the perfect place to make a film about the end of the world."
Because it tops the world's most liveable cities lists, so the rest of the world may as well not exist?
Sort of like a 'restaurant at the end of the universe'?
lemonade was a popular drink and it still is
How many Japanese products are made in China and just branded. Really the only reason they signed off is pure empty politics. No country with an even slightly honest government will sign off sovereignty to a secret corporate court. So with the US out, Japan can try to dominate weak partners because Australia and New Zealand are out. There is already agreement the deal will not be renegotiated so the Japanese government is just attempting to keep the existing one alive. It is pretty obvious is being a sock puppet to many Machiavellian schemes to force political stances upon the new government, including scams 'er' schemes designed to collapse, forcing more conflict in various regions, scandalous dumping of arms and munitions into conflict zones, desperate attempts to minimise the outcomes of pizzagate et al.
Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
but the honest truth is as Trump points out it was an abysmal deal for the US
The negative impact on the US auto industry really misses the point, protectionism is almost always to the detriment of the country as a whole. Under the deal the Japanese agricultural industry suffers, but all Japanese people get cheaper food. It's a net benefit to Japan, even though it has a negative impact on that specific industry. At the same time the US agricultural industry gains from this.
Likewise: under the deal the US auto industry suffers, but all Americans get cheaper cars. Since almost all Americans drive, it's a net benefit to the US. And, at the same time, the Japanese auto industry gains from this. Exactly the same situation as above.
Third thing: the copyright stuff is being handled in the opposite way - favor the industry over the whole population. This is why people protest it, but it's easy to see why the politicians do it this way. The loss to industry is easy to quantify, even if they do give ridiculously inflated numbers, but the monetary benefit of shorter copyright terms is very hard to measure. You're trying to estimate the value of all of the works which could exist but don't, thanks to copyright. So politicians favor the safer option, ignoring all of the non-monetary value of the potential works that they're stifling, and go with copyright protectionism.
Also, Trump could have a heart attack tomorrow - he may never become president. After all these years of negotiations, there's no reason for Japan to just drop it, based only on something someone said during a campaign; people say all kinds of things during campaigns. The US could even ratify TPP in 2020, after Trump leaves office. (At least I don't know if any time limit offhand.)
I know that a lot of people like to think that Trump will only be a one term president, but the odds are huge - or "yuge" as Trump says - that he'll serve two terms. Why?
1) Since 1900 most sitting presidents have won re-election to a 2nd term. You can roughly categorize the losers as being beaten during periods of great economic malaise. Trump and the Republicans are going to push through a lot of tax cuts that may be long term disasters but in the short term the economy should grow here.
2) Since Eisenhower was president, the US has alternated 8 years of Republican presidents with 8 years of Democratic presidents with the only exception being George H.W. Bush's 1998 election win that pushed the Republican presidency to 12 years in a row. This was followed by 8 years of a Democratic president and a return to the alternating cycle.
3) Trump seems to be in pretty good health.
4) Like it or not, this election showed that the Democrats are a minority party in this country and the odds are just going to be stacked against them for a long time to come. Rural America is solidly Republican. I just don't know if the Democrats will ever be able to take control of the House of Representatives again. Nancy Pelosi could live to be 100 and die being the last Democratic Speaker of the House. On top of that, her re-election as minority leader shows that the Democrats lack the new ideas and original thinking they are going to need if they ever want to control the House again.
Translation: "Stop pointing out that i got conned by a liar! Waaaaaaaah!"
... is not dead yet. Trump is not sworn in, there are plenty of D's and R's still supporting this legislation, and Obama would sign it if it came to his desk. It's not dead until it's actually dead in Congress for this lame duck session. And then who knows? Trump could change his mind.
Thanks for electing us an inconsistent buffoon R's. Because you don't actually know what he's going to do.
That is all.
It was in the 1959 when she said that. It sounds very funny now that Melbourne has changed so much.
Think of the deep south of the USA in the 1950s and double it.
That's a good point, sitting presidents are most often re-elected. Also, presidents are normally politicians - they have years of experience in other political offices before becoming president. Presidents normally have strong support from their party leadership. Presidents are normally diplomatic, they don't say grossly inflammatory things on a weekly basis. Trump is not typical. I'd be very wary of predicting anything about Trump based on previous presidents.
On the other hand, presidents are so arrogant that they think a) they should be president and b) most people will agree that they should be president. Most presidents also value loyalty very, very highly. Trump's personality is quite typical of a president.
China may be rapidly militarizing, but even at current rates it is decades away from being able to project force with the ability of the US and even some of the US's allies. China has exactly one aircraft carrier actually in the water at this point.
And while I think Trump is a farcical moron, all he's really doing with this latest saber rattling is making open that which has been US policy for decades. Yes, the US won't acknowledge the Taiwanese government, even as arms it to the teeth and makes it clear that any attempt by China to seize Taiwan would lead to retaliation. And really, with China's military as it is, it's dubious it could even take Taiwan, which is one of the most fortified chunks of rock on the planet.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Drumph has never, in his life, told the truth! I believe he is lying also about shutting down TPP. It is in the interests of his commercial partners such as Monsanto, Bayer, Big Pharma, et al. Drain the swamp? Hell, he is throwing all of us into the end of the swamp with the quick sand and alligators!
Sometimes, real fast is almost as good as real-time.
Alternatively, American car companies would no longer be complacent and actually innovate to produce competitive cars.
I thought the Republicans were supposed to represent free markets. Yet because the TPP got proposed under Obama they're foaming at the teeth about it.
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> Trump just says stuff, he hasn't read the Constitution much less the TPP, he said what people wanted to hear.
Absolutely.
> Read any of his books and he freely admits to being a con man.
> I mean, dealmaker.
Many years ago, before he was involved in politics at all, I read some of his books. He's a) a promoter, someone who gets press coverage, and b) a deal-maker. He's not a Constitutional scholar, though it seems even a professor of Constitutional law turned president is happy to disregard the Constitution.
In one deal, the owners of the Empire State building gave him 50% ownership. His cost to buy in? $0. If he was made half-owner, he'd find ways to make it more profitable; that was his "investment". That's a pretty darn good deal. He did turn it profitable too. In another deal, he got the other party to agree to pay the full cost of building a hotel and casino, they agreed to operate it, and he got half the money. He's obnoxious (because that gets publicity), and he's damn good at negotiating some incredible deals.
On TPP, he's shown that the US is ready to walk away, that we don't feel we *need* this deal. Other countries who want the deal are now in the position of thinking about what, if anything, they can offer to sweeten the deal for the US. For Obama, having TPP fall through would be (was) a failure, once he committed to the deal politically it was hard to walk away, so his negotiating position wasn't as strong for the last few years.
Likewise: under the deal the US auto industry suffers, but all Americans get cheaper cars.
When you're out of work, you can't afford even a cheap car.
We've made enough of those deals along the lines of "sacrifice jobs, but cheaper goods," that the jobs losses have piled up.
The white Australia policy was keeping even most of the Jews out (not white enough apparently) plus anyone black was hated even more than in the US deep south. The Polish, Italian and Greek migrants didn't have it so hard but were getting spat on. My aunt spent a bit of time there in the 1950s (and again later) working as a Nun in Fitzroy trying to smooth things over.
It is a very different city today.
However I threw in the Ava Gardner quote because it was slightly related but funny and not to make any sort of point - it says more about her than Melbourne anyway.
You've sort of missed some of the reality of the situation but it would be intensely difficult for me to elegantly explain it all. Essentially the factors here are:
1. Japanese auto manufacturers are competing against not only US auto manufacturers in the US market, in the case of say Toyota we have Korean (Hyundai) and German (VW) competitors along with the domestics (~Ford). The issue here is that Hyundai produces lower quality cars at *much* lower prices and VW produces similar range cars at roughly equal prices - with the TPP Toyota could sell VW range cars at Hyundai prices.
2. The opposite end of (1) is that US cars would flood the Japanese market - which has already been attempted in the past but the poor image of US cars and general national brand loyalty of the general Japanese market lead to total failure. Even if the Japanese market was flooded with US cars it is highly unlikely it would make any significant impact to domestic manufacturers and would not lead to a profit for US manufacturers.
3. Agriculture in Japan is a very specific market: extremely high quality at almost any price. Already the highest quality beef, apples, etc. produced in the US don't even touch the US domestic market and are diverted to Japan (and now increasingly China). Don't believe me? Check the label on your apple juice: where is it produced? The apple juice in Japan is usually made with US apples. With lower import costs Japan would get more mid-to-high range food products for the US for a cheaper price.
Most navies do not in fact have an aircraft carrier, and China's industrial base is very impressive. It wouldn't take China all that long to become the world's number 2 naval power.
I have no confidence that the US would go to war with China over Taiwan. That's a pretty big step, and China has legitimate reasons to invade (specifically, that both sides agree that Taiwan is a part of China, and they could crush the last of the rebel government).
It's possible to do a lot of things diplomatically if you don't make a big deal about it. Selling weapons to Taiwan is one thing, having an official policy or asserting the right to sell weapons to Taiwan is another thing entirely.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
You seem to make the assumption that lower prices are the ultimate goal for the American public _at_whatever_the_real_cost. This, of course, is why we have willfully given control of our country to corporations, and I'd say it is obviously not a good thing in the long run. That Americans continue to make this deal strikes me as short-sighted and suicidal. What's good for General Warbucks is _not_ good for the USA, not in the long run.
Yesterday Japan passed a law to make casinos legal in their territory.
Coincidence?
Very unlikely.
Trump is working for Trump and not America.