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Newest Tesla Autopilot Data Shows A 40% Drop in Crashes (bloomberg.com)

Posted by EditorDavid on from the Autopilot-is-my-copilot dept.

There's a surprise in the data from an investigation into Tesla safety by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. An anonymous reader quotes Bloomberg: [W]hile all Tesla vehicles come with the hardware necessary for Autopilot, you need a software upgrade that costs thousands of dollars to make it work. Since buyers can add Autopilot features after purchase, this provides a perfect before-and-after comparison. It turns out that, according to the data Tesla gave investigators, installing Autopilot prevents crashes -- by an astonishing 40 percent...

Now -- thanks to an investigation that initially hurt the company -- there is finally some real data, and it's good news for Tesla... As the software matures to match the new hardware, Musk said on Thursday via a Tweet, Tesla is targeting a 90 percent reduction in car crashes.
UPDATE (5/4/18): The NHTSA has now clarified that their study "did not assess the effectiveness of this technology.

UPDATE (2/16/19): The study's underlying data reveals serious flaws in the methodology that undermine its credibility, according to new analysis from a research and consulting firm.

5 of 167 comments (clear)

  1. Good idea, bad name by alvinrod · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think the technology is a good idea, but they've picked a terrible name for it. To someone who is uninformed, it makes it sound as though the feature enables automated driving for the vehicle, and while that may be the end goal, it's currently not at that level and may give a false sense of capability. They should refer to it as "Driver Assist" or something that doesn't leave anyone with a false impression of the capabilities of what it does.

    1. Re:Good idea, bad name by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

      To someone who is uninformed ...

      Since these "uninformed" people don't actually own a Tesla, it doesn't matter one iota what they think about the system. If you actually own a Tesla, the capabilities and limitations of the system are very very clear.

      Also, an autopilot on an aircraft doesn't completely fly the plane all by itself either. Pilots understand that. Do you think they should rename it so the passenger in seat 22C also understands?

  2. Re:Short-term numbers versus long-term by Namarrgon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Probably because the bag of meat's eyes are too often turned elsewhere.

    --
    Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
  3. Re:Regulatory Solutions by saloomy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    But the AutoPilot in an aircraft and and in this case the Tesla do the same thing. They assist in control of the aircraft. AutoPilots do not replace the pilot or relegate his/her duties to that of a passenger, you still have to have a pilot or you aren't going anywhere. The name is appropriate.

    The Tesla Autopilot is pretty good for how early in car automation we are. It would be a terrible inconvenience to require you to put your hands on the wheel when you are driving thru some stretches of the American south-west, like going between Phoenix and LA on i10. Just like it would be a terrible inconvenience to expect the auto-pilot of a passenger jet liner to require input every three seconds before it disengages between Heathrow and JFK. There is no reason for it. There is no need for a law.

    Will accidents happen? Sure. Just like aircraft accidents still happen. The goal of the technology is to reduce the chance of an accident happening, not eliminate it altogether, while providing some amount of relief for the pilot / driver. It is pretty hard to keep at attention for many hours on end when the task is so mundane. As the technology gets better and better, and more wide-spread, we will see more and more benefits from this technology, like reduced energy consumption by drafting closely to the car infant of you, or reduced traffic congestion by synchronized acceleration, intersection control, etc.. etc..

  4. Airplanes are slower than cars by aberglas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If an airplane autopilot goes bad it would take many tens of seconds if not minutes for disaster to ensue. They are basically dumb things that maintain direction and altitude. If the pilot looks out the window, it takes many seconds for an on coming plane to arrive. More likely they rely on TCAS, the transponder based alerting. But it all happens quite slowly during a cruise, which is why pilots can study a map while flying.

    Cars on the other hand are often only a second or two from disaster. Swerve into oncoming traffic and things happen very fast indeed.