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Electric Car Battery Prices Fell By 80% In the Last 7 Years, Says Study (electrek.co)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Electrek: A new study published this month by McKinsey and Company looks into how automakers can move past producing EVs as compliance cars and "drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability." Unsurprisingly, it describes battery economics as an important barrier to profitability and though the research firm sees a path to automakers making a profit selling electric vehicles as battery costs fall, it doesn't see that happening for "the next two to three product cycles" -- or between 2025 and 2030. That's despite battery costs falling from ~1,000 per kWh in 2010 to ~$227 per kWh in 2016, according to McKinsey. The company wrote in the report: "Despite that drop, battery costs continue to make EVs more costly than comparable ICE-powered variants. Current projections put EV battery pack prices below $190/kWh by the end of the decade, and suggest the potential for pack prices to fall below $100/kWh by 2030." Automakers capable of staying ahead of that cost trend will be able to achieve higher margins and possible profits on electric vehicle sales sooner. Tesla is among the automakers staying ahead of the trend. While McKinsey projects that battery pack prices will be below $190/kWh by the end of the decade, Tesla claims to be below $190/kWh since early 2016. That's how the automaker manages to achieve close to 30% gross margin on its flagship electric sedan, the Model S. Tesla aims to reduce the price of its batteries by another 30% ahead of the Model 3 with the new 2170 cells in production at the Gigafactory in Nevada. It should enable a $35,000 price tag for a vehicle with a range of over 200 miles, but McKinsey sees $100/kWh as the target for "true price parity with ICE vehicles (without incentives)": "Given current system costs and pricing ability within certain segments, companies that offer EVs face the near-term prospect of losing money with each sale. Under a range of scenarios for future battery cost reductions, cars in the C/D segment in the US might not reach true price parity with ICE vehicles (without incentives) until between 2025 and 2030, when battery pack costs fall below $100/kWh, creating financial headwinds for automakers for the next two to three product cycles." UPDATE 2/3/17: We have changed the source to Electrek and quoted McKinsey and Company -- the company that conducted the study.
Not really what will do for the ICE car is fuel availability. Here in the UK we have gone from 37,500 filling stations in 1970 to 8,600 bu 2013 with further contractions since then. Heck by 2011 due to more fuel efficient cars and a recession we where burning less fuel in ICE than in 1970.
Basically "petrol stations" as we call them here operate on very thin margins, with many only profitable due to the shop they run. As the number of electric cars increases the demand for fuel will further fall, so more stations will close. This will then start having a network effect making electric cars ever more attractive because you don't need to go searching for a pump to fill up your ICE.
The average age of a passenger car in the EU is only 8 years (its a lot more in the USA. at nearly 12 years) which means that once it starts it will be very rapid, and my prediction is that average age of cars will start dropping as people ditch the ICE due to the hassles of filling up.
That was my reaction, too... insanely expensive 9V primary cells on the shelf, and even bulk ordered, rechargeables are looking more economical for 9V at this point because the price of rechargeables is so much lower now. The question is A) whether your smoke detectors are built to deal with the fast cutoff at end of charge for non-alkaline cells B) whether they are maintained by you alone so your rechargeables don't get swiped and C) whether there is some stupid rule that rechargeables aren't allowed even if the smoke detectors are compatible.so you don't get flagged during some sort of inspection and D) whether replacing the smoke detector with a model that does 3x AA is also an option.
Normally for something like low draw a smoke detector rechargeables would not make financial sense, but at these prices...
Someone had to do it.