Tesla To Start Pilot Production of Model 3 This Month (reuters.com)

According to Reuters, Tesla is planning to "begin test-building its Model 3 sedans on February 20, a move that could allay concerns about the company meeting its target to start production in July." The sources familiar with the matter did not mention how many of the Model 3 vehicles Tesla aims to build in February, though the number is likely to be small to test the assembly system and the quality of vehicle parts. From the report: Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year told investors and more than 370,000 customers who put deposits down for a Model 3 that he intended to start building the cars in July 2017. At the time, many analysts and suppliers said the timeline was too ambitious and would be difficult to achieve, pointing to Tesla's history of missing aggressive production targets. If Tesla succeeds in starting pilot production of the sedan at its factory in Fremont, California on Feb. 20, the company would be able to share the news with shareholders two days later when it reports fourth-quarter results and better answer any questions about the Model 3 rollout. Musk had told investors last year that the company could miss the July 2017 startup target if suppliers do not meet deadlines.

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The Satanic Cult of Kaballah

[Anonymous Coward]

http://www.jesusisprecious.org...

2nd Corinthians 10:5, âoeCasting down imaginations, and every high thing that exalteth itself against the knowledge of God, and bringing into captivity every thought to the obedience of Christ.â

I am a born-again Christian. Thus, I love people in the Lord Jesus Christ, Whose Holy Spirit indwells me as His child (Romans 8:9). I believe that the King James Bible is the preserved, inspired, inerrant, infallible, incorruptible, perfect, Words of God in the English-speaking language for this generation (2nd Timothy 3:16-17). Hence, I am as narrow-minded as the Word of God, the Holy Bible. Everything that I believe is based upon the Holy Bible. History, archaeology and the sciences all support the divine origin of the Bible.

As a born-again Christian for over 30-years, and having studied the King James Bible my entire Christian life, by the grace of God I can perceive satanic deception almost immediately. The Word of God is a lamp unto our feet (Psalms 119:105), that never changes (Matthew 5:18). The wicked world keeps changing, but God and His Holy Word never change. My goal is not to be unkind to anyone; but rather, to steer you clear of satanic deceptions that are intended to send you to Hell for ever. The Devil is real and he hates everybody! Revelation 12:10 says Satan accuses Christians night-and-day before the throne of God. John 8:44 calls Satan the father of all liars and murderers. Satan disguises his false prophets as ministers of righteousness (2nd Corinthians 11:13-14). 2nd Corinthians 11:15 teaches that Satan disguises himself as Christ to deceive the world. Kabbalah is a satanic deception!

The Bible teaches that Satan was once the archangel Lucifer (Isaiah 14:12-17 - King James Bible). Satan's entire goal for your life is to take you to the Lake of Fire with himself for ever. Beware of all modern Bibles, which are corrupted, all of them completely removing the name and doctrine of Lucifer. Most people will weep bitterly in eternity (Luke 13:24; Matthew 7:13-15), weeping and gnashing their teeth (Luke 13:28), filled with hate and rage at the Devil who conned them into a false plan of salvation. It is not too late if you are reading this article. I will expose Kabbalah for the Satanic deception that it is, just for you (because I care about you whoever you may be), and tell you how to be born-again and live for ever! Please hear me out.

Kabbalah is a Satanic Substitute for the Gospel of Jesus Christ

To get right to the point concerning Kabbalah, it is a system of demonic beliefs that attempt to substitute man's wisdom for the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Kabbalah means âoereceiving.â In 1995, Kabbalah was made openly available worldwide for anyone to study. This is because the New World Order was kept hidden prior to 1995, because American society wasn't indifferent enough yet to accept it. Forty years ago people were called nutty conspiracy theorists for even mentioning the New World Order, but today is has become a widely accepted term. The sinister plot for World Government (which was kept a well-guarded secret for the entire 20th century) is today openly promoted and accepted. I truly believe that the PREtribulation Rapture is so very near.

Here are the basic teachings of Kabbalah...

WISE MEN OPENED A SECRET
The meaning of life has been found through studying Kabbalah science.
(Education is totally free of charge).

KABBALAH... WHAT IS THI

Re: The Satanic Cult of Kaballah

[Anonymous Coward]

Couldn't read it all but it seems a fair summary is subscribers to a hoax don't like competing hoaxes.

free the (also) innocent stem cells

[Anonymous Coward]

cease fire stand down.. hugs not thugs.. no bomb us more mom us...

It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

I think the enthusiasm has diminished for the model 3. It was announced way to early before final production had even begun to happen. Unless Tesla can produce and sell a boat load of the Model 3's and have customers be satisfied. Tesla has basically bet the store on the model 3. I have my doubts based on how Tesla has handled the limited production it has been doing. Where is the ramp up of support services that will be needed for this? I have not seen it happening.

Re:It was announced too early

[michelcolman]

They haven't fully revealed it yet. Pretty soon they'll have another event with the final version, and they'll be all over the media again. Expect enthusiasm to skyrocket. I don't think they'll have any problem selling 500,000 per year or more. Certainly not when the first test drive reports come in.

Support services is another matter, I don't know what they're doing on that front, but I'm pretty sure someone will have thought of it. They're pretty nimble, so I think you'll see Tesla service centers popping up or expanding everywhere at a very rapid rate once the first deliveries start. They shouldn't need quite as much support as regular cars, anyway. And it's a much simpler car than model S or X. No problems with retracting door handles, falcon wing doors, etc.

Re:It was announced too early

[drinkypoo]

I think the question is how many would-be Model 3 purchasers are going to give up and get a Bolt instead.

Re:It was announced too early

[squiggleslash]

They're also getting a lot of cancellations (for all models, not just the 3) at the moment for political reasons. It behooves them to get the product out of the door and close as many orders as they can. They're not quite in an Uber situation right now, but I think they're running scared they will be by the time the Model 3 is actually ready to be delivered to customers.

Re:It was announced too early

[ranton]

I think the enthusiasm has diminished for the model 3. It was announced way to early before final production had even begun to happen.

Tesla is going to have at least a couple more major announcements in 2017 as they reveal the final design and specifications and then start delivering the first Model 3s. Both will be a shot of adrenaline similar to when they accepted pre-orders in 2016.

Tesla has basically bet the store on the model 3.

The whole point of the Tesla's last 10 years has been the Model 3. I agree the stock price hasn't priced in the risk inherent in the Model 3's success, but every investor should by now realize Musk's vision has always been to sell tens of millions of electric cars not a few hundred thousand electric super cars. He has shown he is willing to risk everything to reach for a grand vision in the past (such as nearly going broke funding Tesla in 2008) so no one should be surprised here.

Re:It was announced too early

[goose-incarnated]

What political reasons?

(I'm not being facetious, I'd really rather like to know)

Re:It was announced too early

[ranton]

They're also getting a few cancellations (for all models, not just the 3) at the moment for political reasons.

FTFY

It behooves them to get the product out of the door and close as many orders as they can.

That is still true, but for very different reasons than you give. Even without the Model 3, Tesla will most likely hit the 200,000 US sales mark in Q4 2017 or Q1 2018 (probably 2017). That means the phase out period for the $7500 tax credit will start in either April or July 2018.

I am a firm believer in buying used, and without the $7500 tax credit I will almost certainly buy a 2014/5 Cadillac/BMW/Lexus instead of a new Tesla Model 3. Tesla only has about 12 months to deliver my Model 3 or my pre-order will be cancelled. This is probably a very common opinion among people with pre-orders.

Re:It was announced too early

[ranton]

What political reasons?
(I'm not being facetious, I'd really rather like to know)

There have been a few people, possibly less than 10 from what I can tell from multiple news sources, who have cancelled their orders because Musk accepted a position on Trump's economic advisory council.

I think Trump is bad enough to disregard Godwin's Law, but I still want competent business leaders to keep a line of communication open with the man. Criticizing Musk for trying to advise Trump is a Tea Party level of insanity. Then again the Tea Party has sadly had a lot of success, so maybe liberals need to stop relying on only rational responses.

Re:It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

I think the enthusiasm has diminished for the model 3. It was announced way to early before final production had even begun to happen. Unless Tesla can produce and sell a boat load of the Model 3's and have customers be satisfied. Tesla has basically bet the store on the model 3. I have my doubts based on how Tesla has handled the limited production it has been doing. Where is the ramp up of support services that will be needed for this? I have not seen it happening.

You're missing the big picture here.

Tesla has half a million pre-orders for the model 3. They're planning to up the factory production to 500,000 but that's for all models, so don't count on more than 100,000 model 3s being built this year, tops. Allow for 200,000 next year, and you still haven't cleared the pre-order backlog. And that's assuming they succeed in ramping up production as far as they want to go.

By the time you can buy one without having been on the pre-order list the car will have been on the road for two or three years and its reputation and further sales figures will be determined by its actual real-world performance.

Re:It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

maybe liberals need to stop relying on only rational responses.

I assure you, this is a long-solved problem.

Re:It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

Or something else. There will be plenty of other decent EVs to choose from by the time the Tesla Model 3 is produced in volume.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

Tesla's show rooms, service centers, and super chargers are going up all America and Europe. By end of 2017, America and Europe will have supercharger network that covers every 200 miles or less. The only states that are not covered directly by service centers is where GOP are fighting it ( and that battle end with trump telling his brown shirts to knock off ). In Europe, Every nation that Tesla installs superchargers gets a showroom/service center ( and considering that most European nations are relatively small, that is amazing ). No, Tesla will be more than ready for this.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

They are building out faster than ever with numerous showrooms/service centers and SC.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

Yeah, maybe 1-3% max. So what? Who cares about that kind of trash? Once M3 starts, even the conservative WT will buy these.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

Well, not just the liberals, but the far right have not bought telsa because they believe that musk is far left, and not the moderate libertarian that he is. In fact, it has been the GOP that have actively worked to destroy spacex, Tesla, and solar city.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

Actually , I would say that up to this point, musk has constantly bet the store on each model and won. With M3, that bet is gone, as long as he really brings up the quality, which I think he will. Even his approach to the line( inverting it ) and suppliers (bringing in-house quickly if they do not deliver ) is right on the mark. No, the bet is gone. By 2020, Tesla should be in top 10 car makers, and by 2025, in the top 5.

Re:It was announced too early

[aaarrrgggh]

I have seen more and more showrooms and delivery centers... possibly based on where they are gettting Model 3 orders from. I was really surprised at the scale of their center in Honolulu (Kaka'ako).

It seems like Tesla's is pretty good with real-time learning-- they seem to know their mistakes pretty quickly, and look tomhowmit can be fixed. Maybe it is the management style compared to the big companies.

Re: It was announced too early

[WindBourne]

No, you are missing the pix. Next year, they will deliver a combined 100k S and X, with 400,00 to 700,000. Musk continues to up the number that they will produce of M3 due to major changes coming in the line.

Re:It was announced too early

[thegarbz]

I think the enthusiasm has diminished for the model 3.

Who cares? Pre-orders is going to sustain the complete production run for the life of the current model.

It was announced way to early before final production had even begun to happen.

Of course it was. Pre-orders had to come in and finance it.

Unless Tesla can produce and sell a boat load of the Model 3's and have customers be satisfied.

Telsa already has sold them. The only thing left is for them to be shipped to the customers.

Re:It was announced too early

[michelcolman]

The only advantage of the Bolt is that it's already available, while new orders for Model 3 will have to wait at least a year.

Apart from that, Model 3 will blow the Bolt away. Bigger car, better performance, lower price.

So basically, the only limiting factor for Tesla to sell these puppies is how quickly they can produce them.

Re:It was announced too early

[drinkypoo]

Apart from that, Model 3 will blow the Bolt away. Bigger car, better performance, lower price.

I'm just sitting here snickering at the thought of whose cars are going to have more defects; GM, with their long history of defects, or Tesla, with their short history.

Apart from that, Model 3 will blow the Bolt away. Bigger car, better performance, lower price.

Maybe. The only non-CUV cars which are popular right now are small ones, so who can say who wins there. The performance for the Bolt is more than adequate so I'm not sure who cares there, but the Tesla will have superior performance and surely some people will care. We'll see how the price finally falls out with an option or two when the new Tesla finally hits the streets.

So basically, the only limiting factor for Tesla to sell these puppies is how quickly they can produce them.

That is the biggest question, certainly. It has been an issue for Tesla in the past, and there's no reason to suspect that it won't be a problem for them this time.

Re:It was announced too early

[haruchai]

"Even without the Model 3, Tesla will most likely hit the 200,000 US sales mark in Q4 2017 or Q1 2018 (probably 2017). That means the phase out period for the $7500 tax credit will start in either April or July 2018"
I'm quite sure they'll try to shift deliveries to overseas markets to delay the tax credit phase-out as long as possible.

Re:It was announced too early

[DirkDaring]

They are? How many is a lot? 3? 5? 100?

Re:It was announced too early

[TWX]

Enthusiasm only matters where it's centered around likely customers. General noise might have subsided some, but most people aren't going to buy one.

Additionally I expect that if Tesla can hit the price point that it has been working towards that excitement would ramp back up again. Ironically the Model 3 is the first mass-production fully-electric car that has somewhat conventional "three box" styling in a non-luxury price point. The other 100% electrics and even most hybrids look different. I may be projecting here, but I have not been interested in buying an electric or a hybrid because I do not care for the styling, or the price has been far out of my range. The Model S styling is acceptable but the cars are too expensive. The Model 3 styling is similar to the S, but the price is closer to acceptable.

We'll just have to see.

Re:It was announced too early

[minogully]

They're planning to up the factory production to 500,000 but that's for all models, so don't count on more than 100,000 model 3s being built this year, tops. Allow for 200,000 next year, and you still haven't cleared the pre-order backlog.

I don't think that Tesla shares the same estimate as you. From their website:

Production begins mid 2017. Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.

Since there are 400,000+ reservations at the moment, that means that Tesla expects to be able to get through 400,000 cars from the start of production to mid 2018. Otherwise, they wouldn't be stating that a new reservation could possibly receive delivery by mid 2018.

If you're right and they can only produce 100,000 this year, that means that by their own estimates they'll be able to produce 300,000 by mid 2018. But since the factory is supposed to only be able to produce 500,000 a year, they wouldn't be able to output 300,000 in 6 months, that would put them more than 100,000 cars over capacity (if you factor in S and X production).

More likely, by their own estimates, they'll produce 200,000 this year and another 200,000 in the first 6 months of next year.

Re:It was announced too early

[samwichse]

Well, that and that Model 3 trunk hatch.

They best do something about that uselessly small opening before launch. I'm wishing for a Model 3 hatchback model myself.

Re:It was announced too early

[DerekLyons]

Unless Tesla can produce and sell a boat load of the Model 3's and have customers be satisfied.

Telsa already has sold them. The only thing left is for them to be shipped to the customers.

Um, no. Tesla has accepted deposits for them. Now they need to produce them and sell them.

Re:It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

They are? How many is a lot? 3? 5? 100?

.... 10.

Re:It was announced too early

[Shirley Marquez]

There won't be enough Bolts available in the near future to fill that demand. Chevy is only planning to produce 30,000 of them this year. The big obstacle to ramping up Bolt production is probably making the battery packs - that and the fact that it is widely believed that the company will be losing money on every Bolt they sell this year. Battery cost is likely to come down in 2018 so perhaps they can start making money on the Bolt then.

Re:It was announced too early

[david_thornley]

As a liberal, I can see reasons to stay far away from Trump, and reasons to stay close to know what's going on and increase the ratio of intelligent suggestions so that if he follows one randomly it's more likely to be intelligent.

Re:It was announced too early

[Anonymous Coward]

There is nothing uglier than a hatchback. Well, except your mom.

Re:It was announced too early

[short]

Not me, Bolt has no 4WD variant. Besides that it is really ugly.

Re:It was announced too early

[samwichse]

13 year olds trolling Slashdot... what a time to be alive.

The old adage

[DrXym]

Never buy version 1.0 of anything. Any engineer can tell you virtually no hardware or software goes out the door without know problems, some of which may be serious. And in the case of a vehicle some problems will only discovered when vehicles come in for repairs or end up in crashes.

The model 3 might prove to be a great car out of the gate, or over time especially as it is refined. The model S certainly did, the X not so much. I'm not sure why anyone want to gamble money on it though.

Re:The old adage

[Mike Sheen]

Haven't you heard about the new Agile development methodology? It's great! Ship first, then deal with problems via updates as they arise from your annoyed (or dead, as in this case it may be) customers.

Re: The old adage

[jo7hs2]

This is a particularly true adage for all car makers and models. Even "quality" of an established make's existing model diminishes briefly after most refreshes, redesigns, or platform changes. It may be a slight reduction or a major one, and it usually resolves within one model year. However, it is good advice to avoid the first model year of any new vehicle model or any recently changed car. In the case of Tesla, you have them not only being a relatively young carmaker but also introducing a new model on a new platform. Unless they are exceptionally careful, they'll probably get stuck in the recall/defect doldrums for a year or two.

Re:The old adage

[Gussington]

Never buy version 1.0 of anything. Any engineer can tell you virtually no hardware or software goes out the door without know problems, some of which may be serious. And in the case of a vehicle some problems will only discovered when vehicles come in for repairs or end up in crashes.

The model 3 might prove to be a great car out of the gate, or over time especially as it is refined. The model S certainly did, the X not so much. I'm not sure why anyone want to gamble money on it though.

All the issues with the X were due the stupid doors that should never gotten past the idea stage. The 3 is just a smaller version of the S, so it is already v2 (or actually v9 since the S is already up to v8.0)

Re:The old adage

[bazorg]

On the other hand, the first lot will have even more attention from Tesla, and all their people who doesn't want to be linked with a PR disaster. If you dislike telemetry, these cars won't be right for you.

Re: The old adage

[jo7hs2]

No, that's not how cars have historically worked out...any significant change results in a noticeable spike in recalls and reliability complaints for a model year or so after the change. New platforms or changes to platforms are usually the most notable times for such issues, and "based on" is not enough to negate this being a platform change/introduction.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

> Haven't you heard about the new Agile development methodology?

I'm a pretty old fart. In mid-eighties (remember those times where the computer was at the customer's and was fridge-sized?) we had an expression for that -- the banana principle: "it matures at the customer's".

Young'uns. Always inventing new names for things :-)

Re:The old adage

[Ecuador]

It's the same for the other manufacturers as well. Some new models come out as duds and you don't find until much later. However, I didn't see anyone going around telling people don't buy a new model like the Pinto until you are sure it is safe. Why singling out Tesla when it comes to cars? You could say that the Tesla relies more on software, however it is the car that patches its software faster and much easier than any other.
I am not a "fanboy" but I sure as hell like to see disruptive technologies succeed in the automotive industry - I don't like being stuck with the same old crap (which people occasionally have to bail out as well).

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

I have first hand experience in this. Purchased a car in 2005 from a car maker with very high reputation for quality. I was one of the first customers, so this happened:
- Doors would not close smoothly (they tried to improve it, but it never got anywhere near to what you expect from a quality car)
- Suspension spring broke after three months (they changes the material of the springs soon after launch)
- Nobody knew how to install the iPod interface, although they were actively marketing it.
- Car was just too low (although no sports car), because they had no space to fit the catalytic converter. They found a solution about half a year after production start and modified my car accordingly.
- Steering wheel would sometimes "kick-back" when making a sharp turn (very annoying feeling). This was never resolved on my car, but newer cars of the same model did not have the problem.

There were many mory tiny annoyances, so I swore to myself never to by a car that has not been in production for at least one year.

Re:The old adage

[DrXym]

You're right, it's definitely true for all cars. Virtually no production vehicle is launched without some form of issue. It's always a good idea to wait a year or two after a product launches for the issues to be shaken out and the recalls to have happened.

In this case however ~400,000 people appear to have lost their collective minds and preordered a car without knowing all but the most minimal information about it.

Re: The old adage

[geekmux]

No, that's not how cars have historically worked out...any significant change results in a noticeable spike in recalls and reliability complaints for a model year or so after the change. New platforms or changes to platforms are usually the most notable times for such issues, and "based on" is not enough to negate this being a platform change/introduction.

Uh, speaking of history, how has Tesla fared with regards to considerable recalls as compared to every other car manufacturer?

That might actually be a relevant component of the expected failure analysis that would preclude undue concern or even bullshit negative hype.

No manufacturer is perfect, that is true. But some may be considered a bit more reliable than others, bolstering confidence even with v1.0 designs.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

They are expecting it gets most of the stuff that the Models S and X got right, at a much lower price point. Given their track record, that is not an unreasonable expectation.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

Model 3 is actually version 4.

Roadster
Model S
Model X
Model 3...

Re:The old adage

[stooo]

The difference between the bananas and products :
Products don't just mature at the customer. You have to put a lot of effort in to support it.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

Fridge-sized? Pah! I remember when computers were car-sized.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

What make and model was this? Saying 2005 and "reputation for high quality" doesn't mean much.

Re: The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

This is true, and Tesla is not one of them. Tesla has one of the highest recall rates of any manufacturer. If you read their earning reports, recalls are one of the biggest obstacles to sustainability of the company over all. Yes, they have so many recalls and spend so much on them that they might actually put the company out of business.

Re: The old adage

[jo7hs2]

That's not entirely accurate...customers are often advised to avoid initial model year after refresh/introduction by various sources. It's not FUD targeted only at Tesla, it's commonly given advice for people who absolutely do not need to buy a car immediately or who aren't jonesing for that brand new model. Cars unpredictably have failures, even from well-reputed makes, that often do not show up u too the vehicle is in wide use. Giving it a year lets the leaseholders and people who absolutely HAD to have the car the first year test it out for you and find them. Most cars have a small spike in recalls and TSB type issues after a refresh, some have a LOT, and it is often completely impossible to predict. For example, to use a car that was a relatively recent introduction for Ford, the Fusion had an initial spike in recall issues when introduced, despite being based on the Mazda 626, then had spikes in 2010 when a new power train (particularly new transmission) was introduced during a refresh, and again in 2013 when they had a platform and power train change. Ditto on the Escape, which are both vehicles selling ae Undo the numbers Tesla is anticipating. And this is no isolated issue at Ford, it happens with carmakers all around the world of all pricing and quality levels.

Re:The old adage

[ranton]

Never buy version 1.0 of anything.

I would normally agree with this, but because of government incentives early Model 3 owners will likely get between $1875 and $7500 off the sticker price (depending on how early they get their Tesla). While I would be wary of a first model year BMW or Cadillac as well, if they gave 15-20% off the sticker price to buy version 1.0 of their car it would certainly alleviate that worry. The same goes for the Tesla Model 3.

$7500 to go through 2-3 recalls in the first couple years, along with replacing my 170k mileage 12 year old Honda a couple years earlier, sounds like a good deal to me.

Re: The old adage

[goose-incarnated]

This is true, and Tesla is not one of them. Tesla has one of the highest recall rates of any manufacturer. If you read their earning reports, recalls are one of the biggest obstacles to sustainability of the company over all. Yes, they have so many recalls and spend so much on them that they might actually put the company out of business.

Parent needs an informative mod

Re:The old adage

[DrXym]

They are expecting it gets most of the stuff that the Models S and X got right, at a much lower price point. Given their track record, that is not an unreasonable expectation.

They can expect all they like. It doesn't mean those expectations will be realised.

Aside from the risks of owning a version 1.0 car, I don't see how expecting the same of the model 3 as the S or X is reasonable given the difference in baseline price. Musk has also tweeted he expects the average spend to be $42,000 which suggests an obvious incentive to gimp the baseline model and nickel and dime people into paying more money.

Re:The old adage

[Bearhouse]

Pah! I remember when they were building-sized...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Re:The old adage

[ranton]

It's always a good idea to wait a year or two after a product launches for the issues to be shaken out and the recalls to have happened.

Unless you get a $7500 discount from the government by being an early Model 3 owner. I'll put up with a couple extra recalls for $7500.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

Car-sized? Pah! *I* remember when computers were building-sized.

Re: The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

Only if he backs it up with hard data...

Re: The old adage

[ranton]

Tesla has one of the highest recall rates of any manufacturer.

That doesn't seem to be true. Through September 2016 Telsa has averaged 936 total recalls per 1,000 vehicles. Porche was the best manufacturer with only 531 recalls, and Volkswagan was the worst with 1805. Of the 18 manfucturers listed in my link, they averaged 1072 recalls, or about 15% higher than Tesla. Toyota for instance had 10% more recalls than Tesla (per car sold) and Ford had 22% more.

Even though Tesla is only a 10 year old car company, their recall rates are better than companies that have been doing this for 100 years.

Re: The old adage

[Octorian]

My first car, a Ford, seemed to get 3 recall notices every month. Basically, every wiring harness in the entire car was eventually going to get a recall notice. After a few years, I stopped getting those.

My second car, a Toyota, never got any recall notices. I don't know if its because they didn't issue any, or if they simply never made it to my mailing address (and were handled by the service center invisibly).

I've now had a Tesla for almost two years. The only recall notice I ever got was clearly a fleet-wide CYA, and not something about a real problem. In general, it seems like Tesla is so afraid of the potential appearance of certain issues, that they do issue fleet-wide recall notices for things other manufacturers wouldn't even pay attention to. (Basically, something bad was noticed on one car, and to avoid even the potential for risk, they decided to check all cars for that issue.) Of course, I also don't have "Rev A" of the car, so most teething issues were likely solved long before mine was built.

Re:The old adage

[Immerman]

Yep. Even better than bananas. You get paid for support.

Re: The old adage

[Immerman]

True. But with Tesla pretty much everything they've done has been "v1.0", and it seems like reliability has been fairly impressive (probably in large part because there's so much less that can go wrong with an electric vehicle, but still). I've also gotten the impression that they've been really good about retrofitting even relatively major updates onto existing vehicles (such as the addition of an armored skid plate) - upgrades it's worth mentioning that have often taken the car from "one of the safest/most reliable on the road" to "what the hell are you planning to DO to this poor thing?

Now of course past performance is no guarantee for the future, and especially the business case for retrofitting upgrades is likely to be less appealing for a mass-market vehicle, but it seems likely that they've learned most of the weak spots of the relatively simple drive/power system, and integrated the upgrades into the S. The body and interior of course will be something completely new so there's lots of room for broken door handles etc.

Personally I would wait, but then I've had the early adopter burned out of me by repeated disappointment. So long as they have an enthusiast community willing to pay a premium in price and risk to be an early adopter - I say more power to them all. Tesla seems to have a good track record of not making the same mistake twice, and I think they've probably already had their attention drawn to all the potentially deal-breaking major problems with their electric vehicle design, so I suspect it will work out well for everyone.

Re: The old adage

[Immerman]

Worth considering that many (most?) of their recalls have largely been PR stunts - things like armored skid plates to practically turn the thing into a tank. Stuff that other manufacturers with an established reputation and market niche would be tempted to simply ignore - you do enough damage to a car it dies, and maybe blows up. That's expected,. Don't do that.

Plus, at this point their reference design in the S is damned near indestructible (we'll just ignore software abuse...), and the machine itself is simpler than pretty much anything since Ford's Model T, so there are radically fewer potential failure points to be concerned with.

Re:The old adage

[Immerman]

>In this case however ~400,000 people appear to have lost their collective minds and preordered a car without knowing all but the most minimal information about it

Isn't that always the case though? I mean sure, usually you can kick the tires and read some early reviews of a new model vehicle before buying it, for whatever good that might do, but the problems won't really start being discovered until tens of thousands of the things are on the road. Which means that yeah, it's good advice not to buy the first iteration of a new model, but if everyone did that you'd never get enough cars on the road to discover those problems in the first place. Early adopters are a necessary part of the process, and one of the few valuable services provided by the more affluent members of our society.

Also worth mentioning that realistically, there aren't 400,000 people who have preordered a Model 3 v1.0 (actually none if I recall correctly - they've just put down a fully refundable down-payment to reserve their place in the queue). Realistically, only the first 10%, if that, will get a v1.0. As they start hitting the streets in numbers problems will shake out, and by the time they hit the first 100k mark they'll probably have gone through several revisions and be in pretty good shape for the last 75% of the reservation list.

I mean, assuming Tesla is actually expecting that their cars won't be perfect right off the line, and are using the public as their beta testers while scaling initial production up gradually enough to get at least the biggest problems fixed before they've shipped serious numbers. Which sounds like Musk's style to me.

Re:The old adage

[Immerman]

Not super relevant though, except that the basic power/drive system has largely been worked out. Not as mature as an ICE, but probably no big surprises left.

Consider that most modern ICE cars are relatively minor reworks of previous models with a different body and details, and yet they still have a spike of recalls following the initial release. Usually it's not major design issues, but the fact that one specific newly revised whatsits had one little part that wasn't quite as strong as it needed to be and became a common point of failure. Multiply that by the many dozens of whatsits in a modern car, and there's going to be a lot of potential recall points. Electric vehicles get it a bit easier since there's a lot fewer whatsits in the basic vehicle components, but there's still all the little "luxury" items like door hinges that are ripe for recall.

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

Because, Tesla, unlike other car makers, works with customers and corrects everything. Their customers service is night and day above regular car makers and I can only guess that rolls is the only one that either approaches or beats them.

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

3 is NOT a smaller version of S. Lots of differences. One of the biggest, is inverting the production line, which should increase the quality a great deal.

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

Actually, Tesla has not had but a few recalls ( and always dealing with suppliers ). IIRC, only 2 were required by feds. The other 2 were them playing safe. They do regularly make software updates that improves things, but these are not recalls.

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

Wrong. Tesla has one of the lowest that are required by law. Only 2 have been done. They have had 2 others that the feds did not require, but Tesla did on own .

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

No he does not, since he is lying.

Re: The old adage

[geekmux]

No he does not, since he is lying.

Speaking of lying, ethics is yet another factor here. If Tesla holds a high ethical stance to be truthful with regards to recalls, as well as a mindset in playing it safe rather than rolling the dice, even an elevated number of Tesla recalls needs to be weighed fairly and accurately against other car vendors who arrogantly can afford to roll the dice, and have plenty of times in the past, skewing statistics.

With regards to taking ethics to the worst level, the word liar and Volkswagen are forever synonymous, so we've seen what other vendors are capable of.

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

The first lot of M3 go to those of us that already own Tesla's. We know what to expect and are perfect first owners on these. The first 70k ( and growing ) are just to current American owners . This same approach will likely be used on MY, and I expect that the first 500,000 of those will be Tesla owners ( since European production is expected to start next year ).

Re: The old adage

[WindBourne]

Relax. The first 70k or so will go to current Tesla owners. We know what to expect and check and will help solve the issues.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

"Not as mature as an ICE, but probably no big surprises left."

The electric motor is much more mature than the ICE. If Tesla were a ICE automobile startup do you think they would have any sort of reliability in the first year (think of early Hyundais sending valves through hoods, or Vegas eating up engine blocks)? It's only because electric motors, inverters and reduction gears are so simple and well understood that Tesla has managed to produce any sort of quality at all.

But the whatsit part A breaking whatsit part B is all too common and it's exactly the sort of stuff like "how do you design a hinge to last 100K cycles" that worries me about Tesla.

Re:The old adage

[Immerman]

I suppose you're right - I wasn't thinking in the context of all the other things electric motors are used for. I mean we've got everything from electric-drive train locomotives to model airplane motors that fit in your fist and deliver more than a horsepower. I wonder exactly how much application-specific optimization is relevant to cars? Or could Tesla use off-the-shelf industrial motors?

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

Tesla will sell the first Model 3's to their own Fremont employees. That makes a lot of sense. These are people who want the cars to succeed, they live locally and will provide good initial feedback before the general public gets to own any. After Fremont employees customers on the West Coast will get theirs with priority to owners of earlier Tesla models that understand the pros and cons of electric vehicles and a Tesla in particular. By the time customers in the more distant East Coast receive theirs the cars should be fairly well sorted hopefully obviating the need to ship cars back to the factory on the other side of the US to correct design errors. Then Asia, Europe and lastly the RHD countries will likely receive theirs.

Re:The old adage

[Anonymous Coward]

2005 Kia Rio

My old car was a Yugo.

Re: The old adage

[Gussington]

3 is NOT a smaller version of S.

It's got 4 wheels and 4 doors, the motor/battery config are fairly standard. Most of the changes are simply smaller/less of to skimp on features that add cost, unlike the X which added stupid expensive doors/seat config which were the cause of most of the issues.

One of the biggest, is inverting the production line, which should increase the quality a great deal.

I'm not even sure what you mean by this, I'm sure they aren't starting with a finished car and ending up with raw materials?

Translation

[Anonymous Coward]

Tesla will try to produce a small number of Model 3s on the production line for the Model S in the near future in order to qualify for all the subsidies and incentives they claimed for Model 3 production lines that have yet to be built. They can afford to halt Model S production for a while to adapt the assembly line, because Model S demand has been very low so far in 2017. However, making to vastly different models on the same line is usually not very efficient, so even if Model S demand remains low, they cannot reasonably expect Model 3 production to get much past the peak overall production attained so far.

Tesla's production is really hampered by the relatively low degree of automation and the large number of defects in production that require manual repairs at the end of the line. The reduced complexity of the Model 3 may alleviate these problems somewhat, but only after initial problems have been ironed out, which will probably take a long time for a car developed by an inexperienced company that is only now getting into the prototype phase.

Re:Translation

[Anonymous Coward]

But how does this tally with Elon's claim that he model 3 will come off the most automated line in history?
his plans are to get the volume by not needing many humans involved with the whole assembly process.

Get the popcorn in. This will get interesting. Tesla has over 400K reservations on the books. The Fanboi's are slavering at the thought of getting their hands on this (IMHO) pretty ordinary EV when compared to the Model S.

Re: Translation

[WindBourne]

Actually, MS and MX demand continue to exceed supply. Give it a rest and troll elsewhere.

500,000?

[Anonymous Coward]

You think they can make that many?

Huh.

Re:500,000?

[michelcolman]

I said they'll be able to sell that many, not make them ;-)

Making them may be a challenge initially, I expect they'll probably start around 300,000-400,000 in the first year which, while being objectively impressive, will be judged a failure because they didn't reach the full 500,000. After a couple of years, though, they'll easily surpass that number.

Re:500,000?

[mdm-adph]

300k to 400k, huh? I'm a fan of Tesla, and I even have one of these pre-ordered, but I'm willing to bet their yearly output won't be 1/10th of that. :) I expect to see 50k out the first year, and another 50k out the next. The rest of orders will either be cancelled by that time or they'll just be waiting much longer.

Re:500,000?

[Immerman]

That seems unnecessarily conservative. It sounds like Tesla produced over 25,000 vehicles in Q3 2016 alone, and as I recall the Model 3 is designed to be much faster/easier to produce than its predecessors. Assuming zero new production capacity (which seems like a foolish assumption), they should easily be able to produce over 100k new vehicles a year, maybe even hit 200k depending on just how much the production process was streamlined.

Of course that would assume they stop producing previous models, which is probably a bad idea. Not sure how profit margins compare, but even if the Model S actually had higher margins, the previous models will still be carrying a lot of the brand's mystique.

Re:500,000?

[Anonymous Coward]

300k to 400k, huh? I'm a fan of Tesla, and I even have one of these pre-ordered, but I'm willing to bet their yearly output won't be 1/10th of that. :) I expect to see 50k out the first year, and another 50k out the next. The rest of orders will either be cancelled by that time or they'll just be waiting much longer.

The factory they're using was previously owned by another vehicle manufacturer. It was producing 500,000 cars a year then; there's no reason why it should be able to do so again.

However, the 500,000 figure is for *all* models, not for model 3. Model 3 is the 'mass market' model, so I would assume it will be given the largest slice of the production run, but certainly not all of it.

Tesla's current production rate equates to around 100,000 a year (~25k in the last quarter). The process of ramping up to 500,000 hasn't started yet and isn't expected to be completed until middle of next year, so I'd say the best case scenario would be 200,000 this year in total. Model 3 production will only start properly mid-year, so for this year, you're probably right: 50,000 model 3s would be about the figure I'd expect. If they really push it, they may get 100,000, but that would surprise me.

Next year should be better. Even without any ramping up, the figure should double as they'd have been producing model 3s for the whole year. If the ramping up is successful, then depending on how quickly they can ramp up and what proportion of production is given to model 3s, the figure could be a high as 400,000, but 200,000 is probably more realistic.

The pre-orders will get pretty much the entire run of model 3s for those first two years. The really interesting thing will be to see what demand is like after that. But that will be determined by reviews and real-world customer experience over those first two years, not by any hype being generated now.

Re:500,000?

[haruchai]

I'm also hoping they'll succeed but the cash burn has been so horrendous, it's hard to see how & when they'll turn a profit.
That said, I give them full credit for beginning the move to EVs, which I've been calling the Tesla rEVolution for some time.

Re:500,000?

[haruchai]

"and as I recall the Model 3 is designed to be much faster/easier to produce than its predecessors"
That's was the stated *goal* but we have, as yet, no idea if they've succeeded. I imagine it takes building hundreds or thousands of cars to get a new production process running smoothly. And your supply chain has to be managed precisely.

Re:500,000?

[haruchai]

I think those figures are optimistic. I'll be happy to see 10,000 properly built Model 3s in 2017.
And i'm hoping Tesla will hold off on the big reveal until they can really showcase something impressive, such as a fleet of them self-driving from Fremont to Sparks.

Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Bearhouse]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Stupid name; great car. (and I'm a Ford guy...)

I'm betting you'll get your Chevy faster than your your Model 3; how long is it going to take to make 370k units?
Years...even GM (who know a little about mass-producing cars) are only planning to ship 25k units a year, with the possibility of ramping up to 50k units "later".

Of course, since the Model 3 will end up being more expensive than planned, I'm guessing many of those orders will get cancelled...

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Anonymous Coward]

Chevy Bolt has very limited DC fast charging capability... typically 45 kW hooked up to available 125A CCS EVSEs. Plus, we don't know the cell degradation on the chemistry that GM/LG is using. Plus, it's an ugly econobox with a very cheap interior.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Pascoea]

Is GM only shipping 25k-50k units because of supply constraints or to not outpace demand? (honest question, I have no idea) But their overall capacity for light vehicles is WAY higher than that, 17.6 million units, according to their website. I understand that they can't just flip the switch and start churning out more vehicles, but it certainly seems like they could ramp up their supply if demand dictated.

I guess the point i'm trying to make is that, assuming Chevy is producing at the rate they are because of demand not supply, it wouldn't be that unreasonable for the Model 3 production to outpace the Bolt in a very short time period. That being said, your point definitely still stands. If I wanted a car sooner than later, I'd be betting on the Bolt, only because I could go buy one and drive it off the lot today.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Eloking]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Stupid name; great car. (and I'm a Ford guy...)

I'm betting you'll get your Chevy faster than your your Model 3; how long is it going to take to make 370k units?
Years...even GM (who know a little about mass-producing cars) are only planning to ship 25k units a year, with the possibility of ramping up to 50k units "later".

Of course, since the Model 3 will end up being more expensive than planned, I'm guessing many of those orders will get cancelled...

Well, I think we can all admit that the Chevy Bolt is certainly the biggest competitor of the Tesla 3 (well, until the Nissan Leaf upgrade their range), but it's too soon yet to decide which one of the two will be the best.

Let's wait that the tesla 3 officially launch so we'll have some real number to compare.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[jo7hs2]

I was assuming demand. GM, and to a greater extend, Ford, learned their lesson about pumping out cars just to meet production numbers. In fact, Ford nearly bankrupted themselves trying to maintain their status as #2 automaker by dumping large numbers of cheaper than reasonable fleet cars (Taurus at $12k for example, etc...) onto the market. There are several good books addressing Ford's recovery that get into this issue. I confirmed when I looked quickly into it. GM says they are not production limiting the Bolt, and they aren't just making compliance numbers to get credits for emissions and whatnot, they are limited by demand. This is from a very pro-EV source: http://evobsession.com/chevy-b...

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Anonymous Coward]

Speaking as the owner of two Nissan Leafs and a pre-order holder for a Model 3, I would never buy a Bolt. There are two use cases for cars: normal commuting and long distance travel. For the former, normal around town driving and daily commuting, the nominal range of the Leaf / i3 / i-MiEV / Zoe is plenty and has been ever since they came out. Numerous studies and insurance company data have shown that the average driver drives less than 40 miles a day, so any of the "last generation" electric cars will accomplish that. What the "new generation" of 200+ mile range cars bring to the table is the second use case of long distance driving. The idea being that it is either your only car that is capable of both local and distance driving (like you have with an ICE powered car), or it is a second car to your daily driver (my plan for my model 3). But in either case, the goal is to be able to use it occasionally for long distances. And this is where GM shot themselves in the foot - the CCS standard. When presented with the option of using the CHAdeMO standard, they instead decided to come up with their own. Unfortunately, this means that the Bolt can only use about 10% of the fast chargers. Because very few cars are equipped with CCS charge ports, there has been no major push to deploy chargers for them. Tesla uses the non-standard Super Charger connector, but provides an adaptor to allow their cars to charge from CHAdeMO chargers which are the vast majority of all fast chargers. Additionally, Tesla is aggressively building additional Super Chargers in strategic locations so that their customers will not have to rely on adaptors. GM is doing neither - no adaptor to allow their cars to charge from the majority of fast chargers, and no plans to deploy their own network of chargers. Consequently, the Bolt will never be practical for long distance travel because of the lack of charging locations. It is actually funny that I can travel farther from my house in my Leaf then I could in a Bolt - it would take me more charges, but there are CHAdeMO chargers available in my area, but no CCS ones.

So if you really want an electric car for around town driving, and don't want to buy a foreign one, then the Bolt would work for that. Just don't expect it to ever be a travel car.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[thegarbz]

even GM (who know a little about mass-producing cars) are only planning to ship 25k units a year

GM doesn't have a pre-order. GM isn't geared for production of electric cars.

I also have my doubts about Model 3 production, but what GM are or are not doing has nothing to do with Tesla.

Re: Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[WindBourne]

Sigh. All 400,000+ MS will be delivered by end of 2018. Yes, if you order today, you will not get the 7500 tax break. OTOH, a number of states offer incentives for EVs.

Re: Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[WindBourne]

The leaf us not upgrading their range. That rumour has been going on for 3 years. Nissan has promised multiple EV models and have delivered nothing.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[dogvomit]

Or, you can buy a Chevy Volt today and get the great (if not best) of both worlds.

My 2017 Volt goes 60 miles on a charge -- it's a *very* rare day when I exceed that. Essentially all of my daily driving is all electric. It has awesome acceleration: zero to 60 in 7.6 seconds. And it has that fantastic electric torque curve. But, when I need to drive across Texas, I don't have to plan ahead. Just gas up and go. Really, in today's world, the Volt is just about perfect.

I do not work for Chevrolet, just a very happy customer.

--
Happy happy oh my friend.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[AmiMoJo]

On paper the Model 3 sounds very attractive. Self driving option, access to the Tesla charger network, regular software updates... If they can deliver and get the quality under control, it will be a great car.

Have you driven a Bolt? They aren't releasing it in my country. One thing I have found, having driven just about every EV going, is that most have terrible dashboards. They are basically copies of petrol car dashboards with a few changes for EVs. Only the Leaf and Model S really seem to get it, with the BMW i3 being okay and the Hyundai Ioniq being awful.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[istartedi]

It doesn't look like it has anything like Super Charger capability. That, IMHO, is what makes the Tesla technology a real breakout--the ability to charge while you have lunch on a road trip. Less likely to affect most people's decision is the fact that you're giving money to the company that took back the EV-1s and crushed them. All else equal, people who know about things like that may feel better giving money to Tesla.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[Anonymous Coward]

I would rather wait for the Model 3 for the very reason that GM as been behaving unethically by lobbying to keep Tesla out through the use of dealership laws. (not to mention the bailouts GM received).

On a side note: I wish Tesla would modify their home charging option. It seems a bit wasteful to charge a battery at home and then discharge into a car battery. This 'double charging' will shorten the battery life.
Better option would be to drop used batteries and load new batteries. Tesla did demonstrate this, but the cost is probably prohibitive. One can dream.

Re:Meanwhile, you can buy a Chevy Bolt today...

[DerekLyons]

Of course, since the Model 3 will end up being more expensive than planned, I'm guessing many of those orders will get cancelled...

And more expensive could be more serious issue than many might think - because the Model 3 is already in the range of a high end sedan.

They're making 80K+ cars/year *right* now,

[Brannon]

and that's on high-end luxury cars.

What makes you think they'll be limited to 50K/year on a car that's designed for much higher manufacturing throughput?

Re:They're making 80K+ cars/year *right* now,

[Anonymous Coward]

Designing the car for a higher throughput doesn't help if the factory isn't designed for that.

Whatever

[DontBeAMoran]

When will a sub-$10K electric car be released? The Model 54?

Re:Whatever

[Anonymous Coward]

Within two years apparently.

Re: Whatever

[WindBourne]

China pays half, so that would be a 16k car.

Tesla pushing people to buy Model 3

[MMC Monster]

There's a serious price gap between the Model S and the Model 3.

I was kinda hoping that with cheaper battery production the Model S price would come down. Instead the price seems to be slowly creeping up. Admittedly that price includes a lot new features that weren't available three years ago.

I guess I'm just gripping that they don't have a 100kWh battery model that starts under $95k.