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First Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Zealand Eradication Plan (technologyreview.com)

wisebabo writes: Say goodbye to our little whiskered friends! There is an effort to wipe out not just any species, (there's been discussions to wipe out the mosquitos that carry Malaria), but a mammal. Specifically the house mouse which, along with other invasive species introduced by Westerners, have ravaged New Zealand's ecosystem. (Amongst other things they've rendered extinct many of the flightless birds there). They'll try using the "gene drive" in mammals, which is a new genetic weapon made possible by the editing system CRISPR-Cas9. Basically, it'll make all of the children of the genetically engineered mice male and then all of their children male and so on. This'll continue until there are no females left and the population will crash. If this is successful, they want to use this technique on other species until all of the predators on New Zealand are wiped out.

301 comments

  1. Nature finds a way. by BitterOak · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Haven't they seen Jurassic Park?

    --
    If I can be modded down for being a troll, can I be modded up for being an orc, or a balrog?
    1. Re: Nature finds a way. by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Tell that to all of the extinct species throughout history. If there's one thing the geological record shows us is that nature quite often *doesn't* find a way.

      --
      I spent the evening flickering into your darkness.
    2. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

      Yes they have. That's why they're making them males instead of females. Duh!

    3. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The dinosaurs were engineered to be female. Any farmer who's had a rooster get into the chicken coop should have seen how that would turn out.

      This seems like a good strategy. If, for some reason, the "all children are male" part isn't completely successful, then the plan could still work. A slight shift in the ratio of male:female offspring could still be enough to cause the population to collapse.

      I'm more concerned with the program working too well--what happens if the genetically engineered mice manage to get to Eurasia or the Americas? As annoying as the house mouse is, they're natures disposable animal... predators depend on them as food.

    4. Re:Nature finds a way. by msauve · · Score: 0

      "they want to use this technique on other species until all of the predators on New Zealand are wiped out."

      The want to wipe out all the humans in NZ. If the problem is solved, what's the problem?

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    5. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah yes, because a fictional movie is a good source of scientific information. Fictional movies clearly portray how nature actually works..

      Are you really this dumb?

    6. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I guess only the Maori will be left in New Zealand, then.

    7. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They'd just revert to their cannibalistic past and eat each other until there's nobody left.

    8. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maori killed off many species of flightless birds through hunting.

    9. Re:Nature finds a way. by quenda · · Score: 5, Funny

      They had me at "New Zealand Eradication Plan".

      Should not be hard, as the country is totally undefended.

    10. Re:Nature finds a way. by cb88 · · Score: 1

      Sounds like you are volunteering...

    11. Re:Nature finds a way. by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      To say nothing of the Mori (spelling?), the previous owners of NZ the Maori brag about killing and eating.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    12. Re:Nature finds a way. by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 2

      They're planning to test it on the womp-rats first, no-one will miss those much.

      Especially if you're in a T-16.

    13. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I guess only the Maori will be left in New Zealand, then.

      Maoris != Indigenous, their ancestors got there sometime in the 1200's, proceeded to wipe out the Moas, and the rest, as they say, is history...
      As someone else points out, these rodents are now part of the food chain, especially for other imported species, so, wipe them out, then it increases the predation on the indigenous wildlife, so, as an example, they'll then have to do the same gene jiggery-pokery with the feral cats as that's one group the Kiwis have been bitching about for years, then, what next?

    14. Re: Nature finds a way. by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      It worked on Easter Island.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    15. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moriori

    16. Re:Nature finds a way. by gringer · · Score: 1

      They probably haven't even seen this:

      https://soylentnews.org/articl...

      http://www.nature.com/news/gen...

      Lab experiments showed that the mutation increased in frequency as expected over several generations, but resistance to the gene drive also emerged, preventing some mosquitoes from inheriting the modified genome. ...

      Resistance to gene drives is unavoidable, so researchers are hoping that they can blunt the effects long enough to spread a desired mutation throughout a population. Some have floated the idea of creating gene drives that target multiple genes, or several sites within the same gene, diminishing the speed with which resistance would develop. By surveying a species’ natural genetic diversity, researchers could target genes common to all individuals.

      --
      Ask me about repetitive DNA
    17. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do the rest of us conservatives a disservice with your comment, sir.

    18. Re:Nature finds a way. by Z00L00K · · Score: 1

      It would play in the hands of anyone wanting to perform genocide if it could be race-tailored.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    19. Re:Nature finds a way. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Moriori te salutant?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    20. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Humans is one race. But you could do what you suggest except humans can revert it and black can breed with white also.

    21. Re: Nature finds a way. by no1nose · · Score: 0

      Nature somehow starts with a bunch of species and wipes it out to a few. We will probably be left with cockroaches, pigeons, mosquitoes, cows, pigs and chickens by the time extinct ourselves.

    22. Re:Nature finds a way. by The+Creator · · Score: 1

      When the feral cats are gone, the Kiwis will begin to bitch about other things. Then, the Kiwis will go too.

      --

      FRA: STFU GTFO
    23. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Humans is one race. But you could do what you suggest except humans can revert it and black can breed with white also.

      The majority of obese single mothers already found that out.

    24. Re: Nature finds a way. by Solandri · · Score: 2

      Most if not all of those species went extinct because they were out-competed in their ecological niche by another species. Nature found a way - just via a different species.

      That's an important distinction here because as best as I can tell from TFA, these mice are the dominant creatures occupying this ecological niche (having killed off the flightless birds which used to occupy it). So killing off the mice will open up that niche to competing species. Likely, if this works, it'll result in a bigger problem with other species (maybe opossum or weasel?), or a new subspecies of mouse will develop which somehow sniffs out male mice with this gene and the females refuse to mate with them.

    25. Re:Nature finds a way. by james_gnz · · Score: 1

      To say nothing of the Mori (spelling?), the previous owners of NZ the Maori brag about killing and eating.

      As per the Wikipedia article an AC linked, the Moriori were one group of Mäori, who were invaded, and variously slaughtered or enslaved, by another group of Mäori. That sort of thing often happens to pacifists, unfortunately. That some of them were eaten after being slaughtered is kind of irrelevant I think, seeing as they were already dead.

    26. Re:Nature finds a way. by nospam007 · · Score: 1

      "Haven't they seen Jurassic Park?"

      Exactly! Who left the door open? NEWMAN!

    27. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Yes they have. That's why they're making them males instead of females. Duh!

      And probably they have seen Casino Royale (1967) [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_James_Bond_villains ]

      Be afraid. Be very afraid. (if you're male, that is)

    28. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > But you could do what you suggest except humans can revert it and black can breed with white also.

      That's because black and white are the same race, just like a black and a white horse.

      All racists are therefore ignorant, as they don't know or choose to ignore this fact.

      In the future, we'll probably have people with green, blue (and probably rose) skin -- the situation will only get more ridiculous.

    29. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it turns out that this has done more harm than good, reintroducing mice to NZ will be trivial.

    30. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Race!=species

    31. Re:Nature finds a way. by johanw · · Score: 0

      Finally a way to get rid of the n1gger plague.

    32. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Nature finds a way, but individual species do not

    33. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think if we got a pre-alien species of chest-bursting mice out of it then it still counts as a win.

    34. Re: Nature finds a way. by The+Real+Dr+John · · Score: 1

      In the last 10,000 years the major driver of extinction for a large number of species, especially the megafauna, has been human predation, overfishing and habitat destruction. But another major driver has been that humans have moved many highly invasive species like rats to every corner of the globe. At this point it is uncertain if technology can fix this problem on islands, but considering how much damage has already been done it may be worth a try in some places. However, it is going to be really tough getting rid of all the invasive rodents we have introduced to ecosystems all around the world.

      --
      A brain is a terrible thing to waste... Mind? That's debatable.
    35. Re: Nature finds a way. by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Humans are one species.

      FTFY.

      It doesn't even remotely suggest that what Z00L00K suggested is impossible if you can find the right markers.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    36. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If they introduce a gene drive in mice in New Zealand, the likelihood of it spreading around the world is pretty high. Ships are still vectors for the spread of rodents, and mice live for a couple of years. Would have to have very stringent safeguards in place to prevent the spread.

      Extreme caution is warranted. There is likely no stopping it once it happens.

    37. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless some mice bearing the gene drive get out and wipe out all the mice in the rest of the world.

      Seems like a good thing, but consequences must be examined.

    38. Re:Nature finds a way. by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      They aren't fictional movies. They're called alternative documentaries now.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    39. Re:Nature finds a way. by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      This would actually be a desirable trait in much of the third world, where girl children are considered undesirable. Human nature would be to assume "The other guys" would have the girls, and the population would crash when that didn't happen.

    40. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...or a new subspecies of mouse will develop....

      It is also possible that natural selection will cause androgynous mice to be the norm.

    41. Re: Nature finds a way. by gweilo8888 · · Score: 1

      [peer-reviewed citation from reputable, respected source needed, requested, and definitely won't be provided,]

    42. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Last 10000 years on geological scale is nothing. Extinction events have occurred and what humanity has done so far pales in comparison to the amount of shit that died during said events. If anything, technology is the only thing that can solve problems. If everyone is dead, nobody is left to define what problem is.

    43. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      If they actually go through with it I would seriously consider a quarantine order with New Zealand, any nation doing business with them, and another country sharing those countries borders. Ceasing trade with them sounds severe, but without some plan in place to deal with containment there is no better way.

    44. Re: Nature finds a way. by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      It is also possible that natural selection will cause androgynous mice to be the norm.

      Did you just assume their gender?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    45. Re: Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ask James Watson.

    46. Re:Nature finds a way. by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      Jurassic Park probably worked better because females are XX so there is no possible chance of males being accidentally created (although there are instances of self-impregnation).

      The problem I see with trying to ensure only males show up is that they are XY which means there is an X chromosome that might be able to "easily" become an XX.

    47. Re: Nature finds a way. by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      No.
      Nature starts with a very few species and makes millions
      Until something horrific happens, like Humans

    48. Re: Nature finds a way. by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      And is the pushing gene sequence confined to one species
      We already know flus infect species, pick up gene sequences and carry them to other species
      In fact, something like 10% of our DNA is cross species contamination
      Who thinks there are protections in places?
      Not me.

    49. Re: Nature finds a way. by dddux · · Score: 1

      But nature had chosen us to evolve, as the last resort, obviously. What a shame. Sometimes nature just makes a mistake, indeed. Nevermind - we'll take care of that mistake and give some other, more intelligent species, a chance to evolve.

      --
      "It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." - Jiddu Krishnamurti
    50. Re: Nature finds a way. by hoggoth · · Score: 1

      I have a feeling that mice that cannot breed won't be a huge problem spreading across the globe.

      --
      - For the complete works of Shakespeare: cat /dev/random (may take some time)
    51. Re: Nature finds a way. by gweilo8888 · · Score: 1

      So that's a no to providing a citation, then? Not surprising, they're called anonymous cowards for a reason.

    52. Re: Nature finds a way. by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      > mice are the dominant creatures occupying this ecological niche (having killed off the flightless birds which used to occupy it).

      Actually for the most part it was insects that occupied that niche (look up "weta")

      If they just stayed in that section of the local ecology it wouldn't be so bad but mice eat eggs and chicks. This was thought to be something restricted to rats/possums/musclids, but it's not.

      New Zealand has the dubious distinction of having lost 97% of its indigenous forest in the last 200 years (almost all the remaining forest is protected in national parks) along with at least 95% of its remaining native bird species - which had already taken a 50% hit in the 400 or so years between the time humans first arrived and europeans showed up.

      Interestingly one of the worst pests isn't a predator at all, but goats. They eat everything in the forest from ground level up to as high as they can stretch and their sharp hooves pretty much destroy any plant life left in the undergrowth(*). The damage inflicted by deer (another imported pest), and pigs although still bad, is mild by comparison to the scorched earth that goats tend to leave behind.

      Goats are also incredibly hard to eradicate. They're difficult to poison without taking out most of the species you want to preserve and unless you have a semiautomatic weapon (illegal in NZ without a special license), by the time you've reloaded after your first shot, the rest of the herd will be scattered and several ridgelines away. The only effective method I've seen of dealing with them involves semiautomatic weapons with large magazines and hunters hanging off the sides of helicoptors. This requires a number of special permits that are expensive to maintain, on top of the expense and risk of operating helicoptors in steeply mountainous terrain at low height over dense forest - pilot errors or mechanical failures tend to be fatal and the attrition rate of such hunting is high.

      (*) There are a number of schools of thought that goats are one of the primary contributors to desertification of the middle east for the same reason.

    53. Re: Nature finds a way. by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      The genetic variation in humans is so minor that it's more like "one breed" - kind of like labradours come in 3 main colours.

      Having said that, perhaps someone might like to make Frank Herbert's "The White Plague" a reality (a bioscientist friend who read it said the actual science in it was abysmal, but the idea was creepy)

    54. Re:Nature finds a way. by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      That population bias is already causing _severe_ problems in those countries as the gender balance has shifted away from 50:50

      Historically the solution has been plural marriages (multiple wives and more frequently multiple husbands) but thanks to a few hundred years of religious indoctrination most of the affected countries, polyandry is generally regarded as completely and utterly unacceptable, with polygamy only slightly less unacceptable.

    55. Re:Nature finds a way. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The major difference between the mosquito gene drive and the proposed mouse gene drive is that the mosquito one fucked up their fertility completely, while this one forces offspring to be male. This one is more likely to work because it includes a better mechanism to spread it through the population and is, in theory, harder to become resistant to because male offspring are already a normal thing.

  2. just wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    some slut will ruin it all.

  3. Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I can sorta see why they want to wipe out invasive species, but wiping out all predators is not a good idea! The prey of the predators that get wiped out will then over-run the country! In the American western states, coyotes and mountain lions have nearly been wiped out. The deer that they used prey on are now out of control, and devastating farm crops in those states!

    1. Re: Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      *Introduced* predators. The things that have been eating their native species.

      Nobody is going to be launching a campaign to, for example, drive the kea to extinction

    2. Re:Not the best idea. by sims+2 · · Score: 1

      I seem to remember someone mentioning the four pests campaign where they killed some birds and bugs ate all the food.

      As for deer that's not really a significant problem in this part of okahoma feral hogs on the other hand have gotten to be a huge problem.

      --
      Minimum threshold fixed. Thanks!
    3. Re: Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nobody is going to be launching a campaign to, for example, drive the kea to extinction

      Except maybe tourists who have had to pay up to fix rental cars that the little buggers have stripped.

    4. Re: Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've seen kiwi eating kiwi. Those birds are savages

    5. Re: Not the best idea. by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Nobody is going to be launching a campaign to, for example, drive the kea to extinction

      Except maybe tourists who have had to pay up to fix rental cars that the little buggers have stripped.

      Have NZ's scientists ever figured out what alpine parrots are building out of all those wiper blades? Do they have a secret base somewhere?

    6. Re:Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...feral hogs on the other hand have gotten to be a huge problem.

      Fortunately, they are prey for another species - Good Ole Boys!

    7. Re: Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a strange rubber floating object near farewell spit that is suspected of causing whales to strand themselves rather regularly.

    8. Re: Not the best idea. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. 90%+ of all farm crops in CA, WA and OR are no where near where deer live.

    9. Re: Not the best idea. by Cmdln+Daco · · Score: 1

      In many ranges, white-tailed deer are an invasive species. Now, they're a popular invasive species and the bulk of the 'conservationists' who support their spread are hunters.

      In Northern Minnesota, there used to be a large caribou population. It was replace in the 19th century by white-tailed deer.

      Deer are a 'rat' species that thrives around man, similar to cockroaches, house mice, the norway rat, rabbits, etc.

      Because deer are 'popular' with the very people who pay the most attention to 'preserving the forest ecosystem', the species that compete with them are sunk.

    10. Re:Not the best idea. by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "wiping out all predators is not a good idea!"

      It is when the predators are alien species which the local wildlife has no defences against.

      Because of 60 million years of divergent evolution (no mammals apart from a couple of bats and no snakes), most NZ wildlife tends to assume that whatever's approaching it is relatively friendly. By the time they find out it's not, it's a bit too late.

      On the other hand this is the same environment which created the Haast Eagle, but that was so big it mostly concentrated on Moa as the smaller prey wasn't worth bothering with.

    11. Re:Not the best idea. by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      I'll add to this that the herbivores are also a major problem as most of the vegetation has no defences against their activities.

      Large tracts of ancient forest are dying out due to either being ringbarked by goats/deer or having their growing shoots eaten by Australian ringtailed possoms (no relation to american opossums, think something the size of a very large cat that will eat just about anything but loves tender green shoots and bird eggs, carries bovine TB, breeds prolifically and has a fairly nasty set of claws.)

  4. Two words. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sausage fest.

    1. Re:Two words. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So much gay.

  5. What about the worst predator? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So, 20 generations to wipe out all humans?

  6. Finally a way to solve both... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    sexist and human population of the planet in one fell swoop.

    It will only take 30-40 years after the virus is released for all viable females to be rendered inoperable and for the male race to regain its dominant hold over humanity :)

    1. Re:Finally a way to solve both... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      It will only take 30-40 years after the virus is released ...

      There is no virus. A gene drive works by modifying the genome of the target organism, in this case, mice. They usually work using homing endonuclease to target genes that do or do not have a specific sequence at a specific location in the genome.

  7. Good luck... by xlsior · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...keeping it contained.

    Those mice got onto the islands accidentally in the past, and one of them can just as easily accidentally end up on another island/continent where they can instigate those populations to crash as well. May take longer if it's just a single individual, but if the effects do indeed persist across future generations then it will grow into a tidal wave over time. Very hard to stop if let loose in an unintended area, and can end up crashing entire ecosystems.

    1. Re: Good luck... by Rei · · Score: 1

      I agree, to the extent that I think they should have an "antidote" on hand: an engineered variant immune to the gene drive, to release where, when and if a gene-drive species escapes

      --
      I spent the evening flickering into your darkness.
    2. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting

      Or do the opposite in Australia... All females

    3. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hope this works. Would be nice to see if they can use it on other island bound invasive species like snakes.

    4. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Build a wall around NZ and make the mice pay for it.

    5. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Those mice got onto the islands accidentally in the past, and one of them can just as easily accidentally end up on another island/continent where they can instigate those populations to crash as well.

      Likely aboard ships from England in the 1700s and 1800s.

      Would love to see this done in Australia to clean up:
      - mice
      - rabbits
      - deer
      - camels
      - pigeons
      - myna (bird)
      - rats

      AND of course...
      - cane toads

    6. Re:Good luck... by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

      Good luck keeping it contained.

      The mice are easy to contain. What's difficult is containing the humans who are responsible for transporting things like mice on and off the island. It would only take 10 years tops but humans can't seem to stop migrating.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    7. Re:Good luck... by guruevi · · Score: 1

      Not really, as long as there are sufficient females from other, non-genetically altered branches, those strains should be more 'successful' in the quest for survival and eventually the genetically engineered ones will die out, I'm wondering whether this genetic alteration can be artificially held dominant and stable across generations or if it eventually evolves away as other defective genes do.

      Perhaps the genes that favor production of females in the wild population will suddenly be able to stand out and you'll have strains of mice producing only females and strains only producing males such that you get less frequency of incestuous (and thus weaker) mice populations.

      --
      Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    8. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so, wait: if some guy fucks a mouse this thing jumps species?

      we're doomed...

    9. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1
      The loss of a single species is less likely to severely screw up an ecosystem than the introduction of one... unless you can demonstrate the mouse is a keystone species. And where is the mouse native to? Just have those countries step up inspects of kiwi imports.

      May take longer if it's just a single individual, but if the effects do indeed persist across future generations then it will grow into a tidal wave over time.

      Well it's either effective or it isn't. If it's very effective, then the mice will likely die out too quick for an accidental importation to be likely (realize that serious import controls weren't really a thing back when most of these nonnative introductions happened.) If it's not very effective, but has a slowly deleterious effect, then:

      1. Affected countries can take steps to contain and mitigate the problem before the mice are critically endangered (and because they're mice, they will bounce back quick.) Given that no females should be carriers and the Y chromosome doesn't encode all that much vital stuff, it will be fairly easy to maintain genetic diversity.

      2. One would expect natural selection to eventually make the problem go away before the mice go extinct. I can think of several different mechanisms by which this could happen. Given tuskless elephants evolved to being relatively commonplace over just a few generations, I'm not at all worried about the future prospects of a short-lived, r-selected species like mice up against a bad gene that (for whatever reason) can't quickly wipe out a population.

    10. Re:Good luck... by xlsior · · Score: 5, Informative

      Not really, as long as there are sufficient females from other, non-genetically altered branches, those strains should be more 'successful' in the quest for survival and eventually the genetically engineered ones will die out,

      Um... No.
      You are misunderstanding how this works:

      The whole POINT of this is that is tips the balance of the scales: you start with countless non-genetically altered mice, and throw in a handful of engineered ones that only breed males, and will pass on the trait to their offspring.

      The starting point on the island will be roughly 50% male, 50% female. All of the engineered mice will only create more males, no females. They will mostly breed with random, non-engineered mice, creating more engineered male mice in the process.

      Now all of a sudden the the balance of mice on the island a generation later is 51% male, 49% female. Those 1% extra males will also pass on the all-male feature to their offspring as well, increasing the percentage of engineered mice and decreasing the percentage of 'normal' mice. The generation after that may be 53% male, 47% female. A few dozen generations later you will be close to seeing 100% male and 0% female. The chances of any random pairing of mice birthing female offspring becomes vanishingly small.
      Existing females die of old age or predation without new females to replace them. Population numbers crash, and the species dies off completely on the island, except for maybe some small, physically isolated groups

      Don't forget that each mice can create TONS of offspring, and those all interbreed again. They typically have 5-8 offspring at a time, and can have 5-10 litters a year. This happens FAST. The engineered feature will spread exponentially across the population, with no stopping it. It's an avalanche.

    11. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you want a bunch of Cronenberg's? Because that is exactly how you get a planet full of Cronenberg's.

    12. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The "antidote" is this: female house mice. They're not in short supply, and they're guaranteed to not be a carrier so you can go on collecting them (for greater genetic diversity, let's say) even in the area of an outbreak. Wait for the mice to die out in the area, re-introduce unaffected mice. Wash, rinse, and repeat if necessary. It's not like we're talking about African elephants here. The average lifespan is what, a couple years maybe? And they breed like mad. And they're everywhere.

      This is a complete non-issue. You're not going to accidentally make house mice go extinct worldwide. There aren't going to be hidden reserves of carriers laying dormant for years, just waiting to eradicate any re-introduction of the species in an area.

    13. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And, once this is released anywhere, you're going to have people from other countries come and steal some mice,and take them back to their country (or just their farm or whatever) so they can eradicate the pests in their own country.

      It already happened in New Zealand.

      http://members.iinet.net.au/~rabbit/rcdfaq.htm
      Some New Zealand farmers illegally imported some VHD/RCD virus from Australia and spread RCD/VHD across the hill side. The New Zealand farmers deliberately infected captured rabbits and kept them caged until they died. Then they ripped out their livers and internal organs and put them in their kitchen blenders with water to mix with carrots and oats and spread the disease as if it were a pesticide, not a deadly live virus.

    14. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 4, Insightful
      It's curious how you managed to use some correct facts to support some curiously dire-sounding conclusions. First off, here is the distribution of the house mouse. Do you think that carriers will be accidentally introduced in all breeding populations simultaneously, worldwide? Including the massive captive populations? And don't get the wrong idea from that map; it's not like there's a continuous interbreeding population in that entire range. There are lots of natural barriers keeping the sub-populations separate.

      Don't forget that each mice can create TONS of offspring, and those all interbreed again. They typically have 5-8 offspring at a time, and can have 5-10 litters a year. This happens FAST. The engineered feature will spread exponentially across the population, with no stopping it. It's an avalanche.

      And the avalanche works in more ways than one: reestablishing the mice in places they've been accidentally wiped out in will be a very easy and rapid project. And their short lifespans and high fecundity significantly reduces the window where an unintended transplant can occur. Dead male mice don't tend to do so well at sneaking on boats.

      Also, we know for a fact that females are not carriers, so in the case of a problem it's very easy to start new captive collections (for genetic diversity, let's say) using females plus a few known-unaffected males. You don't even need to pay to have the males tested; you just let them breed and see if they have any female offspring (and if not you don't let them intermix.)

      And that's assuming that accidental releases happen. I'm not at all convinced that's likely given proper import controls and the fact that male stowaways are less likely to survive and enjoy a durable reproductive success in a foreign land.

      But put that to one side: let's say the risk is high. So what? There is a 0% chance of the house mouse going extinct worldwide. Zero. But there's a very high chance that, given enough time, the house mouse will drive more than one New Zealand species to extinction.

    15. Re: Good luck... by capebretonsux · · Score: 1

      Quite right. For lab mice, anyways, the average lifespan was 2-3 years in my experience. Most breeding pairs dropped about a dozen or so litters over their reproductive lifespan, though it varied by strain. From birth to weaning was usually 21 days, and the new female mice could become impregnated quite soon afterwards - mice ain't shy about inbreeding. I would guess that wild mice have similar breeding capabilities, though less opportunity to find suitable mates while they're still fertile.

    16. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that they won't. A vey modest percentage of fertile male, resistant for any of a number of reasons to the modified genes, will pretty quickly experience a genetic advantage and replace the sterile males.

      This has happened with various human populations who preached against sex and child rearing. They were replaced by their more fertile neighbors pretty quickly.

    17. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 0

      deadly live virus

      ...that (as I recall) affects only rabbits, which are also non-native to New Zealand. I'd say give the farmers medals and denounce the politicians that made it illegal.

      It is worth risking a temporary reduction of house mice in other areas of the world to help save New Zealand species. The chance of this doing more harm than good is so small as to be effectively nonexistent. Not even the rabbit comparison is valid, since this isn't a virus and it would be easy to protect and regenerate native house mouse populations if needed and desired.

    18. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      mice ain't shy about inbreeding

      Yeah, that was something I mused on elsewhere: one likely evolutionary response to this, if one had a chance to develop (I'm not sure the selective pressure would last long enough), might be an aversion to outsiders and a *preference* for inbreeding. Might be some neotinic effects that could drive this. A bit interesting to think about, though in the end it'll wind up making it easier to wipe out the remaining pockets of mice, not harder. But just try explaining that to some of the Jurassic Park fans around here...

    19. Re:Good luck... by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      You missed out bogans.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    20. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      That presupposes that it's likely for a mutation to happen quickly enough to undo what the scientists have done. We've no idea of knowing how likely that will be. Evolution can't work miracles, and the amount of time they'll have to pull it off is presumably limited.

    21. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Actually, I have to somewhat adjust what I just said about dormant carriers. If this is just a male-only change with no other changes to the mice, in an accidental-release scenario it may well persist a while without having catastrophic effects. Would be pretty easy to eradicate it if we desired, though, and natural selection would be stacked against it.

    22. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Nice to see the pro-extinction lobby is spending their mod points wisely.

      Seriously, if you care more about the lives of nonnative rabbits and mice in New Zealand than the massive ecological damage that place has already suffered, you should have your head examined. Or your heart.

    23. Re:Good luck... by johannesg · · Score: 1

      Not to mention the demands that will be made for eradicating other species that are perceived as pests, whether it is native to that area or not. Is something eating crops in Africa and causing hunger? Why not just kill that entire species? In fact, how could you NOT kill that species, when faced with moving photos of sick children with tears in their eyes?

      And how about *voluntarily* introducing it to people. There are quite a few cultures (China, much of the Middle East and Africa) where male offspring is considered a much better thing than female offspring. Each individual would reason that he wants sons, and others should just get some daughters. That could end ugly pretty quickly (or good, I suppose, depending on your point of view).

      How about in the hands of the NWO, for that matter. All they need to do is keep a breeding stock of maybe a thousand unaltered men, and they have all they need to fulfill their dream of 'restarting' the human race. They won't even need to destroy all the infrastructure in an all-consuming war; just make sure this gets into the food supply and wait for humanity to fuck itself to extinction.

      This is one piece of technology I would have been happier if it had been left in Pandora's box.

    24. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      : if some guy fucks a mouse this thing jumps species?

      Other way around. A woman would have to get it on with a stud field mouse.

    25. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For any such scenario to play out, the gene would have to be undetectable, for several generations. There's no way to get it "into the food supply", given that it requires females to unknowingly breed with either a genetically altered male or a descendant of one.

      Humans breed slowly. The gene would be detectable. It would take centuries for a serious imbalance to appear among human populations and it would have to happen without anybody noticing.

    26. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > And where is the mouse native to?

      Most parts of the whole effing world, as far as I know. Maybe not central Africa or inner Mongolia or Greenland... so while this ecological experiment is done, pretty much the whole world has to screen NZ-originating cargo in full ecofascist mode - or else we risk a worldwide die-off of the ordinary house mouse.

      Maybe, just maybe, one should try with some isolated island with no international trade links first...

    27. Re: Good luck... by Hans+Adler · · Score: 1

      Let's suppose this works as advertised, and so, almost inevitably, house mice become extinct in Eurasia as well. Before reintroducing them you'd have to wait until they are *completely* extinct there (including on islands and in other remote places), which might take decades during which the lack of house mice might cause serious damage to European ecosystems.

      The species normally has a very large population, hence genetic diversity. It's not clear what will happen if you introduce a serious evolutional bottleneck. It's not clear if New Zealand (or any other part of the New World where mice now live) is a precedent for longterm survival of the species after such a bottleneck, as they probably had centuries of genetic diversity arriving regularly on board European ships.

      Female house mice are easy to identify. But you also need unaffected male house mice without the engineered gene - and enough of them to get a sufficient degree of variation on the Y chromosome. You need enough unaffected mice to have the genetic diversity required for long-term survival in the mice's original ecosystems, where their niche has been taken over by other species. You need sufficient funding for this without being able to say how many, precisely, you need. You will have to fight against short-sighted agricultural ministers in much the same way that other interests are currently holding up the reintroduction of other species - and effective action to save the planet from climate change.

      You'd also need to make sure that nobody releases their pet mouse with the gene after you have started reintroducing mice.

    28. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and natural selection would be stacked against it.

      Please explain, because it seems to me if natural selection is stacked against it off the island, then natural selection is stacked against it on the island, and there is no point to doing this at all.

    29. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Let's suppose this works as advertised, and so, almost inevitably, house mice become extinct in Eurasia as well.

      This is flawed for two reasons:

      1. If it's very effective then why would it be "inevitable" than an accidental release would occur OVER THE ENTIRETY OF EURASIA (which surely comprises dozens of non-interacting / non-overlapping breeding populations) as well?

      A very effective and quick mouse-killer capable of that would "almost inevitably" kill off all the mice in New Zealand before any stowaways could work their evil.

      On that note: stowaways also have a bit harder of a time than normal, since they will have to find a receptive female on the other end before they die (of hunger, predation or at the ripe old age of two or three years old.) Since they are femaleless, they won't be able to establish an initial population through sibling inbreeding and then expand later until they find more mice.

      2. It's not at all clear what would happen if this technique were used in a low-key way without population bombing (like sterile insect technique, but genetically modified instead of sterile) or supplementary anti-mouse measures like poisons. As the numbers of females decreased, non-modified males would enjoy better long term reproductive success than their modified counterparts because a male who has a litter of half females should, in a sufficiently female-depleted environment, produce more males than a male who has a litter of all males. I haven't thought about this at length but I'm assuming that there will be an equilibrium point preventing complete extinction, particularly when geographic considerations and incest are taken into account.

      Such an equilibrium will probably result in the slow extinction of the modified males, though there's a small chance something interesting could happen and (over the course of thousands of years, i.e. more than enough time for us to fix the problem) they could evolve into a different species of reproductive parasite.

      It's not clear what will happen if you introduce a serious evolutional bottleneck.

      A worldwide evolutionary bottleneck is nonsense. I don't know what you could possibly be smoking to assume this would be "inevitable".

      and enough of them to get a sufficient degree of variation on the Y chromosome.

      Nonsense. The Y chromosome has very little work to do (as does the W chromosome in female birds, presumably), and by definition it doesn't have a lot of diversity--it's passed down mostly unchanged from father to son.

      Genetic diversity is a good thing because it prevents inbreeding depression through recessive genes and the like. But this is clearly inapplicable to a chromosome that offspring only ever receive one copy of. There's no real benefit to diversity there.

      You'd also need to make sure that nobody releases their pet mouse with the gene after you have started reintroducing mice.

      Again, these buggers last like two years. Modified males will be readily detectable due to the number of offspring mice produce. Also, very few people capture wild house mice as pets (given they are literally $1 at the pet store), let alone capture them and go on to release them later.

      You're at a 9 when you should be at a 2. There's a minor risk that this will be a local annoyance in a few places. This isn't going to be a catastrophe. What IS a catastrophe is the current state of New Zealand ecology.

    30. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      The short answer is that it is but one prong of a multi-pronged campaign that involves, among other things, a hell of a lot of poisoned baits. Also, they may be releasing them in overwhelming numbers in certain locations, which is something that would not happen with accidental releases.

      If you just released a small number of the modified mice on the island and did nothing else, no poison campaigns at any point or anything, I would quite expect some pockets to survive and eventually rebound.

    31. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What exactly are these female mice you've collected going to breed with?

      Also what are the predators in the ecosystems where mice are a foundation species going to do in the intervening three, or five, or ten years while we wait for this to burn itself out? While I don't want to see New Zealand species go extinct, I would also not want to see North American raptors go extinct either.

      We've done the whole "There's so many of them, they'll never go extinct" thing before and it never seems to work out.

    32. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hmm, genetic engineered mice and no females means they all become gay!

    33. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And how about *voluntarily* introducing it to people.

      That is an absolutely excellent idea. Humans are incredibly overpopulated.

      And, sorry, no, there's zero chance of it proceeding to total extinction. Humans are the most surveilled species there is.

    34. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They need not be introduced everywhere at once, just everywhere over the course of the 10-20 years it would take for the engineered variants to go extinct in contaminated populations.

      If you intend to ensure the survival of their species, you will need to have a captive population. Presumably SOMEONE has something like that somewhere. Obviously there are captive lab mice populations all over the place, but common house mice?

    35. Re:Good luck... by Imrik · · Score: 1

      Except the mice with modified genes are still fertile, they just only have male children.

    36. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      we know for a fact that females are not carriers, so in the case of a problem it's very easy to start new captive collections (for genetic diversity, let's say) using females plus a few known-unaffected males. You don't even need to pay to have the males tested; you just let them breed and see if they have any female offspring (and if not you don't let them intermix.)

      You are missing a step. The eradication needs to _work_, so that in the non-captive population, all the carrier males die out. If the half-life is such that always one or two survive within any reasonable waiting period, then you can never repopulate non-captive mice. Every so often, another avalanche will occur.

      I think we should use techniques like this because the risk is worth it either for the other species driven extinct or the impact of the pest on humans. I think either alone is enough. But when you are defending it, you should engage under "the principle of charity" with your opponents' arguments. Failure to do this is one reason science has such low credibility now. They don't argue fair. They pick the conclusion they want, and anyone not part of the club is convinced by any means necessary. Fuck that attitude and the horse it rode in on.

    37. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would quite expect some pockets to survive and eventually rebound.

      But why? Is it mouse migratory habits? Mouse mating habits? As I understand it, these altered mice are no less fit than their unaltered brethren. They simply do not produce daughters. And all else being equal, the balance tips in just 6 generations.

      tl;dr version:
      5 females, 4 unaltered males, 1 altered male, becomes...
      16 females, 16 unaltered males, 8 altered males, becomes...
      44 females, 44 unaltered males, 40 altered males, becomes...
      92 females, 92 unaltered males, 168 altered males, becomes...
      132 females, 132 unaltered males, 472 altered males, becomes...
      116 females, 116 unaltered males, 824 altered males, becomes...
      56 females, 56 unaltered males, 816 altered males, becomes...
      16 females, 16 unaltered males, 416 altered males, becomes...
      4 females, 4 unaltered males, 120 altered males, becomes...
      0 females, 0 unaltered males, 32 altered males, becomes...
      EXTINCT

      Long version:
      Lets say you have a population of 4 female mice and 4 unaltered male mice, and introduce 1 female and 1 altered male. Each male finds a partner and they all give birth to an average litter of 8 pups, evenly split between female/male for the females that got knocked up by the unaltered males.
      Now we remove the original breeding pairs and raise the new mice to breeding age.

      We've now got 16 females, 16 unaltered males, and 8 altered males. With 16 females to 24 males, just 2/3 of the males are getting laid. Since the altered males are equally fit to the unaltered males, lets assume an even split (or, as even as possible). 8 * (2/3) ~= 5.3, so lets round that down to 5, meaning 5 females are now pregnant with just boys.
      All females give birth, resulting in 11*4 = 44 females, 11*4 = 44 unaltered males, and 5*8 = 40 altered males. We now repeat the process.

      44 females to 84 males means that about 52% of the males will get laid, which works out to be about 23 unaltered males and 21 altered males assuming an even split. This then results in 23*4 = 92 females, 23*4 = 92 unaltered males, and 21*8 = 168 altered males. We repeat again.

      92 females to 260 males means that just 35% of the males get laid, working out to about 33 unaltered males and 59 altered males, which then gives us 33*4 = 132 females, 33*4 = 132 unaltered males, and 59*8 = 472 altered males. Repeat again.

      132 females to 604 males means that 22% of the males get laid, working out to about 29 unaltered males and 103 altered males, which then gives us 29*4 = 116 females, 29*4 = 116 unaltered males, and 103*8 = 824 altered males. Repeat.

      116 females to 940 males means that 12% of the males get laid, working out to about 14 unaltered males and 102 altered males, which then gives us 14*4 = 56 females, 14*4 = 56 unaltered males, and 102*8 = 816 altered males. Repeat again.

      56 females to 872 males means that 6% of the males get laid, working out to about 4 unaltered males and 52 altered males, which then gives us 4*4 = 16 females, 4*4 = 16 unaltered males, and 52*8 = 416 altered males. Repeat again.

      16 females to 432 males means that 4% of the males get laid, working out to about 1 unaltered male and 15 altered males, which then gives us 1*4 = 4 females, 1*4 = 4 unaltered males, and 15*8 = 120 altered males. Repeat again.

      4 females to 124 males means that 3% of the males get laid, which given the proportion of unaltered males to altered males, now means that NO unaltered male manages to get laid, making this the final generation.

      Yes, I made certain simplifications, like removing each breeding pair after a single litter, but I do not see how trying to factor that in would change the outcome. It just might make it take a little longer.

      So what is it that I am misunderstanding that would cause this to not happen?

    38. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This has happened with various human populations who preached against sex and child rearing. They were replaced by their more fertile neighbors pretty quickly.

      Except it isn't like that at all. It's more like you have a group of humans who preach about just having boys and no girls, and who can very easily mate with the overall population and convince everyone they mate with to abort any girl fetuses.

    39. Re:Good luck... by j-beda · · Score: 1

      Except that they won't. A vey modest percentage of fertile male, resistant for any of a number of reasons to the modified genes, will pretty quickly experience a genetic advantage and replace the sterile males.

      But they are not sterile males - they are males who produce no female offspring. "Resistance" in any lucky males would have no advantage - their kids would be a 50/50 mix of male and female - just like a "normal" mouse.

      I suppose that there could be a mutation in the female line so that they cannot breed with the modified males. It seems unlikely that this would become widespread enough if introduced at only rare random spots to make any difference.

    40. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Again, short answer: There's a shit ton of mice and despite being the same species they're not all in constant contact with each other. Climates change, rivers change course, highways are built, predators change territories, and suddenly two groups just don't have contact with each other for a year, a decade, whatever. Long enough for one population to die out (and take the gene with it) before it can contaminate everyone on the continent.

      I'm also not completely convinced the gene alone is a guaranteed kill even within a given territory because the inbreeding resistance will quickly break down once the number of females begins to drop and the number of non-modified males should begin to rise as they not only have more access to their female relatives (being closer in proximity), but a non-modified male siring a litter of half-females will (in a male-dominated population) ultimately end up producing more male descendants than a modified male siring an all-male litter. In this manner, I think I could imagine the non-modifieds winning an evolutionary war even without a protective cocoon of isolation. Depends on a lot of factors though, particularly territorial behaviors, maternal behaviors, ability to track females in heat from a distance, likely effects of inbreeding depression, etc.

    41. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As well, any mutation which counters the effect of the gene drive will have enormous reproductive success and will quickly spread through the population. This dynamic is largely responsible for the why mice maintain an even gender ratio under normal situations, even though they only need a very few males per very many females to keep the population functioning.

      In a large enough population, this sort of gene drive will fail because there will already be rare variants that overcome its effect. This doesn't mean it won't have a major impact, but that other processes need to be ramped up at the same time to tip the species over the edge.

      Yes, I am a biologist.

    42. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you miss the part about. "they want to use this technique on other species until all of the predators on New Zealand are wiped out". What a bunch if idiots these people are. You can't just get rid of parts of the ecological chain without causing chaos. I can see the mice, since they were introduced, but even with that there will be consequences that they are not anticipating. If they are going to do this they need to at least leave it at mice.

    43. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The logic is the same, even though they got the details wrong. Any female-associated genetic trait that interferes with the male-only gene drive will have tremendous reproductive success and quickly spread through the population. This dynamic is why mice normally have an even gender ratio, even though only very few males are required to fertilize very many females.

      Accidental gene drives that disrupt gender ratios have long been studied in insects, as well as the effect of compensatory mutations that push towards a return to balance.

      A small population of mice might be driven extinct before such a mutation arises, but once the population gets large enough... it is likely the compensatory mutation is already out there.

      Yes, I am a biologist.

    44. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The whole POINT of this is that is tips the balance of the scales

      And in just 6 generations too!

    45. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Every so often, another avalanche will occur.

      Not convinced this is true[1], but if so, kill 'em all. Using a mass release of more modified males, if appropriate, but also some rounds of poison baits. After they're all dead, repopulate. If you're concerned about them being genetically interesting, collect a bunch of females first (and a few males that you test-mate.) It's not like people will be welcoming stowaways. I'm sure the docks and ships will be heavily baited. Conceivably, if house mice are a significant agricultural pest farmers might make an effort to smuggle them, which... I don't know, I guess I didn't devote a lot of time thinking about intentional smuggling into native ranges. Are mice really such a scourge that this would be likely to happen?

      you should engage under "the principle of charity" with your opponents' arguments

      Uh, you should see some of my other posts in this thread. This one was downright cordial. Politeness has its place but shouldn't be overused. Neither science nor politics can advance if no one ever bashes heads.


      1. It's a complicated analysis. A pure random chance of mating means the modified mice always (statistically speaking) win. In practice, physical proximity from birth does count for something and mice aren't too picky about whom they fuck, particularly if they can't find anyone else. A possibility of a protracted war with periodic flareups... maybe. Highly uncertain; too dependent on specific biological factors.

    46. Re: Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "antidote" is this: female house mice. They're not in short supply, and they're guaranteed to not be a carrier so you can go on collecting them (for greater genetic diversity, let's say) even in the area of an outbreak. Wait for the mice to die out in the area, re-introduce unaffected mice. Wash, rinse, and repeat if necessary. It's not like we're talking about African elephants here. The average lifespan is what, a couple years maybe? And they breed like mad. And they're everywhere.

      This is a complete non-issue. You're not going to accidentally make house mice go extinct worldwide. There aren't going to be hidden reserves of carriers laying dormant for years, just waiting to eradicate any re-introduction of the species in an area.

      That's a bit short sighted. It will take a few years to let the old population die out. During that time the crash will drag along small mammalian predators (ferret and such), birds of prey, snakes and probably a few other types of critters. At the same time insect populations will go through the roof, causing large scale damage to crops. I could go on but you get the picture. If you take out the entire mice population in a large area where they are indigenous, even for a single year, the entire system will crash and come back drastically changed. The amount of bio mass involved is staggering, you can't just take that out and hope the equations will somehow magically match up.

    47. Re:Good luck... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dead mice won't be the ones sneaking onto boats. Male mice will be the ones sneaking on to boats.

      The average lifespan of a mouse is a few years. This means that after the last female mouse dies of old age, they'll still have a male mice around for about two years. As a mouse can easily survive a trip overseas, and it takes years for them to die of old age, only a fool would think they'll be dead before they get off that island.

    48. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      What exactly are these female mice you've collected going to breed with?

      There are thousands and thousands of square miles of range, and dozens or hundreds of islands. They will not all be contaminated with the males, and it will be easy to test for modified males (just let them breed and look for females.)

      We've done the whole "There's so many of them, they'll never go extinct" thing before and it never seems to work out.

      We've never tried anything remotely like this before, to my knowledge. The common analogies used are complete bullshit, and as the frequent usages of shockingly ignorant phrases like "never seems to work out". Gators worked out just fine--hunted them to near extinction, then we stopped and they rapidly bounced back to being plentiful. And gators are far less prolific breeders than house mice.

      People claiming to argue for prudence are really arguing "we can't ever do anything right ecologically speaking, so let's not ever try even if it means the wholesale destruction of unique ecosystems" on closer inspection. If you have specific alternative ideas or tweaks, say so. Otherwise, you're going to be called out as the neo-Luddite you are.

    49. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Obviously there are captive lab mice populations all over the place, but common house mice?

      ...are the same species. Also, virtually every pet store in America has common house mice (granted, they're often albino)

    50. Re:Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Maybe, just maybe, one should try with some isolated island with no international trade links first...

      That's fair enough, although I'm not certain there are likely to be any surprises, provided we already have good mathematical models for mice dispersal, breeding and interaction.

      Most parts of the whole effing world, as far as I know.

      According to the map I saw, they were not originally native to (but are established in) the New World, Southeast Asian Islands (and Australia and NZ), and South Africa. There could be some question over whether they currently form an important part of the ecology (perhaps after having displaced native species), but the speed with which these buggers can bounce back makes this a relatively minor concern, I think.

    51. Re: Good luck... by Hans+Adler · · Score: 1

      Ad 1. I was thinking of someone taking an affected mouse from New Zealand to Eurasia either as a pet (which is accidentally released, or is allowed to breed and one of the descendants is released) or intentionally to control a local population of mice somewhere. This would probably not be a single isolated event. The special gene is likely to be considered a desirable feature for pets and laboratory animals. By keeping an isolated 'normal' population (for females for breeding), you can ensure a steady supply of male mice with the special gene. They are guaranteed not to get pregnant, and they are guaranteed not to contribute to any problems of the crop-decimating type if released. The ideal pet. As a result, there would probably be continuing pressure through events such as this as long as there is easy access to males with the offending gene on any continent. (Regarding stowaways: I am not sure if they still play a significant role anyway.)

      Ad 2. This begins with a valid point - though "not at all clear" is not what I would like to be associated with the fate of any endemic species. As to the bottleneck, this was under very 'optimistic' assumptions for the method's effectiveness - combined with the problems explained in 1. At the point where you accuse me of smoking something and link to Wikipedia, you actually misquote me by lifting a casual "inevitably" concerning extinction of mice in places outside New Zealand, applying it outside its original context to the question of bottlenecks caused by restoration efforts, and extending the scope to worldwide.

      >> You'd also need to make sure that nobody releases their pet mouse with the gene after you have started reintroducing mice.

      > Again, these buggers last like two years. Modified males will be readily detectable due to the number of offspring mice produce. Also, very few people capture wild house mice as pets (given they are literally $1 at the pet store), let alone capture them and go on to release them later.

      I don't see how short lifetime and easy detectability of affected males under controlled conditions invalidates my concern of people continuously releasing small numbers of modified male pet mice. (See 1.)

      Regarding your last paragraph: As much as I would like the damage done by messing with the fauna of New Zealand to be undone, I don't think it's responsible to counter it by messing with it in a way that could damage the fauna of almost everywhere else.

    52. Re:Good luck... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "Those mice got onto the islands accidentally in the past,"

      As with rats, they came on board sailing ships in times when people didn't care about what was coming along for the ride.

      No, they didn't need to come ashore on longboats, both species can swim a few miles relatively well and the smell of fresh food is more than enough to tempt them.

      These days we tend to pay a lot more attention to preventing ship-borne pests from getting onto isolated islands, etc, but the bigger problem are the species that were deliberately introduced for "fur" or "hunting" or "to remind us of home" or "to get rid of the bloody rabbits some idiot brought over for fur" (and wasps(*), but they weren't deliberate)

      Because of the past mistakes in both New Zealand and Australia, biological control systems are intensely studied before being released, to try and ensure they don't end up being a bigger problem than the one they're intended to control.

      One of the more interesting thing about genetically targetted species management on islands is that because the source populations of most of these introductions were tiny, there's a possibility of stumbling on an extermination method which doesn't even affect individuals of the same species outside the affected island.

      (*) Wasps have rendered large parts of the southern beech forests of New Zealand virtually impassable. They arrived during WW2 and have been spreading rapidly ever since. The entire population is thought to be derived from _one_ queen. Cabbage white butterflies in New Zealand are all descended from 3 individuals which escaped from a laboratory in the 1930s and exhibit a startling uniformity of coloration/pattern compared to their brethren in Europe.

    53. Re: Good luck... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      Whilst the non-modified mice will likely win out in the end, the short term effect would be a major population reduction, which in turn can make other culling efforts easier.

      Bucket traps (actually, 44 gallon drums) worked extremely well against mice and rats when I was a kid in New Zealand, but you didn't want to be downwind of the more sucessful ones and no matter how many years went by, the number of animals killed never diminished.

      Similiarly, no matter how many times you went out shooting possums, the numbers and tree damage never declined. Killing 300 in a night wasn't unusual in some areas.

    54. Re: Good luck... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1
      Yes, this is obviously a potent weapon for NZ (and one that I'm in favor of using.) I was referring to accidental releases not being super likely to be extinction-level events even if we didn't intervene.

      the numbers and tree damage never declined. Killing 300 in a night wasn't unusual in some areas.

      Which is why the Luddites here are so odiously backward. This isn't an area I'm deeply read on, but NZ's large area combined with a lack of naive non-bat mammals makes critters like possums and mice a uniquely devastating threat, probably exceeding the damage that has already been noticed. To argue from a place of concern about mice is just ludicrous. Slightly less ludicrous would be issues of temporary food chain disruption if the mice are a key prey species for other threatened animals, but this is something that could be addressed with targeted efforts to preemptively protect and preserve the house mouse population in those areas.

      But given I'm talking to someone with "stoat" in his name, I feel I might be preaching to the choir here.

    55. Re: Good luck... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      Mice aren't an important part of the food chain for predators.

      Rabbits turned out to be for NZ falcons (one of the few native species to benefit from humans arriving) - this was discovered when farmers introduced caliciform virus to control their numbers on farmland and faced with a population crash, falcons switched to predating on ground-nesting native birds instead.

      NZ's ecology is so fucked up that you'd pretty much need something that takes out all mammals, (placental and marsupial) along with specific bird and insect gene drives to try and even think about cleaning up. The bats would inevitably be lost but they're nearly gone anyway.

      You're right about the noticing part - mice have only recently been recognised as any kind of problem as one for-instance. The invasiveness of various introduced plantlife is another cause for concern.

  8. China is trying to do it with a law (once child) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    China's "One Child per family" law has resulted in massive numbers of abortions of females and a resulting drastic overabundance of males.

  9. genocide the humans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All problems solved.

  10. They might want to read this book first... by OtisSnerd · · Score: 1

    Cat's Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut, and what happens with Ice-nine.

    1. Re:They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Once again... Intelligent people don't quote science fiction and try to apply it to the real world..

    2. Re:They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Stupid people manipulate each other into exchanging money. ("Getting paid bro! Making paper!!") Intelligent people take one glance at the transparently manipulative morons, give up all hope for the real world, and escape into science fiction.

    3. Re:They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 2

      Luddite-ism is never more depressing than when it's used to argue that we shouldn't try to fix ecological havoc we've already inflicted.

      It's even worse given when the measures are (as they usually are in modern times) obviously much, much less risky than the existent and ongoing damage and are by their very nature prone to self-limiting instead of unchecked expansion.

    4. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is our track record of "fixes" is often rather poor, cane toads were brought into Australia as a result of pesticides being banned.

      As much as you may want to play the "Luddite" card, the situation is rather different. This isn't about smashing looms, this is about the perils of a potentially destructive action which may disrupt the environment in undesired ways.

    5. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      The problem is our track record of "fixes" is often rather poor, cane toads were brought into Australia as a result of pesticides being banned.

      That was a case of a NON-NATIVE PREDATOR that was NOT GENETICALLY MODIFIED being imported to kill off a *native species* of beetle that was interfering with crop yields.

      I think that may be a tiny, tiny bit different than introducing an inherently self-limiting gene in the population of a non-native animal that has a zero percent chance of going extinct worldwide even if there were a thousand accidental releases. Much in the same way that building a hyperloop is different from organizing a tricycle race.

      This isn't about smashing looms, this is about the perils of a potentially destructive action which may disrupt the environment in undesired ways.

      The only reason why you're concerned about it is "because genetics"... and you can't even stop and think clearly enough to think of a good example of genetic modification for pest control going bad, so you have to compare it to something that has nothing whatsoever to the matter at hand.

      The cane toad comparison makes significantly less sense than anti-vaxxer babble. You have nothing, nothing whatsoever to argue why we should let more New Zealand species go extinct to satisfy your irrational fear of science.

    6. Re:They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh noes, quick, don't read this linked paper by noted science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke about "satellites"!!!

      https://www.wired.com/2011/05/0525arthur-c-clarke-proposes-geostationary-satellites/

      Oh the humanity!

      Won't someone think of the children??

      TL:DR, some science fiction (or writings produced by SF authors who also have a day job) are really quite useful.

      As an Aussie, I'm quite ok with wiping out all introduced placental mammals to my country.

      Yep, I'm one of them. . .

    7. Re:They might want to read this book first... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Cat's Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut, and what happens with Ice-nine.

      So they should read about what would happen if physics were different from how it actually works? How is that going to help?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re: They might want to read this book first... by johannesg · · Score: 1

      People keep talking about the gene being 'self-limiting'. Don't you realize that it isn't self-limiting at all? If it were, it could never work as advertized.

      And we're not "scared because genetics", and kindly don't look down on other people like that. In fact the very example given did not, as you correctly point out, involve genetics in any way. No; we just happen to know that historically, attempts to mess with nature like this have pretty much always resulted in considerable disaster that left the ecosystem a poorer place. There are always unintended consequences, and a country that hands out huge fines for having a few blades of grass under your shoes or an apple in your bag when you cross the border really has no business introducing killer genes into a species.

    9. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      People keep talking about the gene being 'self-limiting'. Don't you realize that it isn't self-limiting at all? If it were, it could never work as advertized.

      If we assume that the "works as advertized" means "will eventually kill all the mice in its own" then can you see how that is very clearly self-limiting? When all the mice in an area are dead, the now-dead males will not be hoping on boats and chatting up the sexy lady mice in foreign ports, which limits (with satisfying finality) the gene's future effects. Clear enough?

      When geographic barriers are taken into consideration, and given the massive distribution of the species, it seems clear enough that many subpopulations will survive through isolation and will be able to repopulate the species (and will do so with remarkable rapidity even without human assistance) once the main bulk has died off from lack of females. I suspect the kiwis will be ready to move in with an aggressive poisoning campaign to pick off the stragglers, but I also suspect that they will confine their efforts to the shores of NZ.

      The faster that die-off happens, the smaller the chance is of a stowaway and the harder it is to spread over a large, continent-sized area. The slower the die-off happens, the more time humans have to react and contain it. There's no catastrophic failure mode here that I can see.

      attempts to mess with nature like this have pretty much always resulted in considerable disaster that left the ecosystem a poorer place

      Stupid, moronic, blithering pop-sci Jurassic Park raptorshit. I just don't even know how to respond to that sentiment politely any more, sorry. That's just profoundly dumb and ignorant on SO many levels. For starters, humans have constantly messed with nature and have had plenty of successes, including but certainly not limited to the reintroduction of species. Secondly, and more importantly, "like this" is ridiculous. The cane toad was nothing whatsoever like this.

      and kindly don't look down on other people like that

      I'm sorry, but if you compare hyperloops to tricycles (I'm sticking with this analogy) and insist your comparison is valid and we should therefore be wary of depressurization dangers with tricycles, I will look down on you.

      Cane toads were obviously not self-limiting, nor were they ever advertised as such, nor were they or their prey genetically modified, nor was the species to be attacked a nonnative one. The analogy fails in every single way. The benefits clearly outweigh the risks and the criticism is obviously coming from a bad faith anti-GMO scaremongering place (as opposed to a sensible precautionary principle approach that recognizes that there's a lot more than one species at stake here. For example, I've yet to read anyone here suggest a massively intensive 1080 campaign as an alternative.)

      Fuck the mice lovers. Long live Middle Earth.

    10. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The more you embrace the hysteria of attacking folks for pointing out the value of caution and ignore the issues with lack of foresight in humans, the less like a prudent scientist you seem.

      Cane toads are just one example among many of human mistakes, the Lenape Potato, Thalidomide, the Mosul Dam, Tacoma Narrows, the Gimli Glider, the Dust Bowl, the Four Pests, I could go on, but why? Will you realize the problem?

      If you are stubbornly insisting on pursuing this course of action, to save some species, disparaging others, rather than acting prudently is a problem.

      Fortunately, for all of us, most likely, you'll have nothing to do with any of this business except pontificating about it on the internets. Which itself is a confluence of poor planning, ranging from the IP allocations to the human misuse that is uncontrolled.

    11. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think Shane_Optima can refrain from despising others over this, he or she has been too indoctrinated to think in terms of antagonism, since people are opposing science, they must be ignorant fools. After all, they're resisting the glorious future.

      How dare we even question it?

    12. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      I don't think Shane_Optima can refrain from despising others over this

      Two extraneous words there.

    13. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Cane toads are just one example among many of human mistakes, the Lenape Potato, Thalidomide, the Mosul Dam, Tacoma Narrows, the Gimli Glider, the Dust Bowl, the Four Pests, I could go on, but why? Will you realize the problem?

      The problem is that there is a massively influential, hysterical, disingenuous anti-GMO lobby in the world. Your analogies are not analogous and these lofty concerns aren't mentioned or taken seriously in most other fields.

      Your ideological goals here are obvious. If this was about "prudence", one of you naysaying AC asshats might have deigned to mention an alternate plan by now. Strangely, you do not. Let me get you started: are you for or against widespread 1080 campaigns?

      The tone and content itself in these sorts of objections, one of "stop and consider", is pathetic. It literally sickens me that some people might be fooled into thinking this is a legitimate form of discourse. We've already stopped and considered. There's nothing more to consider. The risks and benefits and mechanisms involved here are fairly well understood, and the danger is negligible. There is only the decision of whether to bend knee to the neo-Luddites' hollow objections or to act. (Possibly deploying it on a smaller island first, sure.)

      Which itself is a confluence of poor planning, ranging from the IP allocations to the human misuse that is uncontrolled.

      And your logic dictates that those responsible they should have done nothing at all instead of helping to bootstrap the internet.

    14. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cane toads are an example of what happens when you let a rank amateur run a biocontrol program. When experts have been involved, you get much better results. A quick example:

      http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/australia_innovates/?Section_id=1020&article_id=10035&behaviour=view_article

    15. Re: They might want to read this book first... by johannesg · · Score: 1

      When all the mice in an area are dead, the now-dead males will not be hoping on boats and chatting up the sexy lady mice in foreign ports, which limits (with satisfying finality) the gene's future effects. Clear enough?

      Why the hell not? This is the problem right here: you seem to think the modified mice will obediently do exactly as the scientists want them to. In reality there is absolutely nothing to stop the very first mouse that's released from hopping straight on a plane and wiping out the entire worldwide population. In fact, there is a pretty damn good chance of some egoistic asshole from the US or Europe with a mouse problem grabbing one intentionally and releasing it at home.

      When geographic barriers are taken into consideration, and given the massive distribution of the species, it seems clear enough that many subpopulations will survive through isolation and will be able to repopulate the species (and will do so with remarkable rapidity even without human assistance) once the main bulk has died off from lack of females.

      That's a pretty big assumption you have there. Will New Zealand force an absolute travel ban (for people, freight, and everything else) for enough time to ensure that their killer gene won't spread beyond their own shores? Or will those special snowflakes with their 'unique ecosystem' turn out not to give a fuck about everybody else's ecosystem, and happily let this spread to the rest of the planet?

      The faster that die-off happens, the smaller the chance is of a stowaway and the harder it is to spread over a large, continent-sized area. The slower the die-off happens, the more time humans have to react and contain it. There's no catastrophic failure mode here that I can see.

      For a potential world-wide ecological disaster like killing an entire species, "smaller chance" is really not good enough. And given your total myopia on possible consequences, your ability to see failure modes is not as persuasive an argument as you apparently feel it should be.

      Stupid, moronic, blithering pop-sci Jurassic Park raptorshit. I just don't even know how to respond to that sentiment politely any more, sorry.

      Apology accepted. But next time, remember there's always the option of keeping your trap shut.

      Cane toads were obviously not self-limiting, nor were they ever advertised as such, nor were they or their prey genetically modified, nor was the species to be attacked a nonnative one.

      This plan is obviously not self-limiting, and only a complete delusional idiot would think that it is. Your other arguments are irrelevant; what matters is that the cane toad plan had the exact same undesirable qualities as this one. Which are that it was not self-limiting, and the people involved had no clue about unintended consequences when they started. They sought a quick fix and ended up with a giant mess.

      The analogy fails in every single way. The benefits clearly outweigh the risks and the criticism is obviously coming from a bad faith anti-GMO scaremongering place (as opposed to a sensible precautionary principle approach that recognizes that there's a lot more than one species at stake here. For example, I've yet to read anyone here suggest a massively intensive 1080 campaign as an alternative.)

      Are you a little soft in the head, that when an argument is presented, you have forgotten about it by the time you have reached the end of the sentence? The method chosen (genetic manipulation) is irrelevant (and making this a pro/anti GMO argument is extremely disingenuous). You are very clearly wrong about this being self-limiting (since the scientists expect a few mice to be able to kill all the mice across the length and width of New Zealand), and there is absolutely no way in hell they can have any kind of notion of what "other" consequences their actions might have.

    16. Re: They might want to read this book first... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Why the hell not? This is the problem right here: you seem to think the modified mice will obediently do exactly as the scientists want them to.

      The technique is either effective enough for a total kill on its own or it isn't. If it IS effective, then it is self-limiting (which is what that statement was referring to.) If it isn't effective, it isn't an extinction threat.

      In reality there is absolutely nothing to stop the very first mouse that's released from hopping straight on a plane and wiping out the entire worldwide population.

      In reality, that is an incredibly stupid statement. It's found on dozens of islands and every continent but antartica, and their ranges are interrupted on those continents by geographic barriers that are not regularly crossed. Genetic diversity can be preserved, if desired, through harvesting females even after the modified males have moved into an area.

      If you want to argue "it'll be a giant pain in the ass and cost money", that's another discussion entirely. Pinning your entire argument on on the house mouse being in real danger of extinction is laughable.

      For a potential world-wide ecological disaster like killing an entire species

      No. No potential. Stop being a moron. The only way this could happen is if a crazed billionaire went around intentionally seeding them everywhere, on every island, in every isolated geographic pocket, and even then I strongly suspect the demented millionaire would fail. It's simply too widely distributed, and too easy to stop and reverse once we notice a problem, especially since females are guaranteed to not be carriers.

      The crazed billionaire would need to buy up all the pet stores in America, too, because every single one of them carries house mice, (usually for under $2 each.) And laboratories; scientists use them all the time.

      Which are that it was not self-limiting

      It is obviously self-limiting. Dead mice do not breed, and there are likely hundreds of geographically separate breeding populations (not to mention caged populations) that could not possibly be struck simultaneously.

      Not sure how many ways I can re-state this, so perhaps you could simply record yourself saying this aloud, put an audio player on repeat and go to bed with it. Zero danger of this species disappearing from the face of the Earth. Zero.

  11. More cats and snakes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's my platform. Oh, and a 150 percent tariff on Chinese goods, except for those imported by my company (that's Organization to you) because that increases employment of local residents.

  12. This will likely... by BlueCoder · · Score: 2

    produce a nascent populations that barely survive and will likely result in quick rapid mutations and possibly new species as natural selection tries to find a way. Most likely into a species that can change it's sex after adulthood or possess both sets of reproductive organs.

    1. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I for one welcome our new mutant hermaphrodite overlords.

    2. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So they'll end up with democrats?

    3. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah they will just become Republicans. That is to say, vile and useless cunts.

    4. Re:This will likely... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 2

      produce a nascent populations that barely survive and will likely result in quick rapid mutations and possibly new species as natural selection tries to find a way. Most likely into a species that can change it's sex after adulthood or possess both sets of reproductive organs.

      Was slashdot always full of blithering Luddites? No, you are not going to see mammalian hermaphroditism evolve in response to this.

      The evolutionary resistance to this, if any, would likely be behavioral and geographical, resulting in segregated and possibly more incestuously-inclined populations. Neither of these things will make the mice harder to combat (quite the opposite.)

      Worse case, the genetic trick somehow stops functioning and you get female mice again. Super sex-changing mice running ramptant? Please. Put down your VHS cassette[1] of Jurassic Park already and pick up a science book.

      1. You do have a fairly low user ID, after all

    5. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cunts are never useless.

    6. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only a Republican would say that.

    7. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Beneficial mutations don't just happen because they'd be convenient for a species. That's definitely not how evolution works.

      The chances of a mutation like that appearing in a dying population are much, much lower than the chances of such a mutation appearing when the population is thriving, because the dying population has far fewer reproductive events in which any mutations could occur. Nothing about their environment is changing - it's the same old New Zealand landscape - so there's nothing to induce a greater rate of mutation as the population dwindles.

      But just to reiterate: beneficial mutations don't just happen because they'd be convenient for a species, and that's definitely not how evolution works.

    8. Re:This will likely... by j-beda · · Score: 1

      Beneficial mutations don't just happen because they'd be convenient for a species. That's definitely not how evolution works.

      The chances of a mutation like that appearing in a dying population are much, much lower than the chances of such a mutation appearing when the population is thriving, because the dying population has far fewer reproductive events in which any mutations could occur. Nothing about their environment is changing - it's the same old New Zealand landscape - so there's nothing to induce a greater rate of mutation as the population dwindles.

      But just to reiterate: beneficial mutations don't just happen because they'd be convenient for a species, and that's definitely not how evolution works.

      Stop being reasonable!

      And informative!

      Just stop!

    9. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A more likely scenario is that compensatory mutations arise that push the population back to equilibrium of even gender ratios.

      This process has been studied for years with insects. Infection with a bacteria called Wolbachia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolbachia) results in extremely skewed gender ratios. Small populations can be driven extinct, but larger populations (after some threshold for "large") invariable discover compensatory mutations that then sweep and restore gender balance.

      Yes, I am a biologist.

    10. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The chances of a mutation like that appearing in a dying population are much, much lower than the chances of such a mutation appearing when the population is thriving, because the dying population has far fewer reproductive events in which any mutations could occur. Nothing about their environment is changing - it's the same old New Zealand landscape - so there's nothing to induce a greater rate of mutation as the population dwindles.

      It is likely that the mutations already exist that will counter the CRISPR-mediated gender-drive in females. They will be very rare, but will have an enormous reproductive advantage. If this method was the only thing done, the project would most likely fail. It will reduce the population of the mice dramatically, which will make them more sensitive to being knocked off by poison bait programs and the like.

      Yes, I am a biologist.

    11. Re:This will likely... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are still a few straight democrats.

    12. Re:This will likely... by Gussington · · Score: 1

      ...and possibly new species as natural selection tries to find a way. Most likely into a species that can change it's sex after adulthood or possess both sets of reproductive organs.

      No, the most likely outcome is that the mice will die out.
      Nature finding a way is from a movie, it is not how nature actually works. Otherwise the thousands of species animals that are now extinct, wouldn't be.

  13. What could possibly go wrong? by mmell · · Score: 1

    Because, rest assured, it will!

    1. Re:What could possibly go wrong? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just to prevent the "whoosh" responses, I enter here formulations of Murphy's Law and various relevant corollaries.

      General Statement of Murphy's Law

          Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong [ed. note: usually also includes] and at the worst possible time.

      Applicable Corollaries

        Nothing is as easy as it looks.
        The only way to deal with a can of worms is with a larger can.
        Every solution breeds new problems.

             

    2. Re:What could possibly go wrong? by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      I think the worst that could happen is it will be used by hysterical neo-Luddites as another chip in their war to preemptively ban powerful tools that can allow humans to not only flourish, but undo some of the damage we've done to the ecosystem.

    3. Re:What could possibly go wrong? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Heinlein's apostrophe:

      'Murphy was an optimist'.

      Sic Transit Gloria Mundi - Tuesday is usually worse.

  14. People last, right? by tlambert · · Score: 1

    People last, right?

    I mean otherwise, how will you know the other predators are gone first?

    Don't let the cultures that kill of girl children because they all want sons get a hold of this...

    1. Re:People last, right? by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Shh, that's Trump's secret plan to deal with China.

    2. Re:People last, right? by hawk · · Score: 1

      Secret?

      The Chinese have been doing this to themselves quite effectively.

      One Child Per Family has led to aborting females en mass, and has already tweaked the sex mix. This in turn affects the next generation, even if you drop the policy, as with a, for example, 55% male generation, the average female needs to produce (50/45)*2, or more than 2.2 children for break-even.

      hawk

  15. go for it ! by swell · · Score: 1

    Please be assured that the people proposing this idea have given it more thought than I have. (And, admit it, more than you have.) But nevertheless, we have the unique perspective of both genius and being unbiased (uninformed) outsiders. So our thoughts are very important!

    Now, let me say this about that. Yeah, go for it!

    We face many difficulties in our relationship to nature and the environment. And we are developing powerful tools to handle those difficulties. I say use those tools. Use reasonable caution, but ignore nutcase primitives who fight every step of progress.

    Bold. Science can be bold or meek. History shows that bold gets shit done, and meek often leaves great discoveries buried for a century. Bold moves us forward, meek stagnates and stifles. Let's be BOLD! What could go wrong?

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
    1. Re:go for it ! by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Seconded.

      It's extremely depressing to see that the most hysterical forms of Luddite nonsense are, when it comes to genetic engineering, commonplace even here. The man-made damage to the ecology is happening right now. We can possibly fix it using a self-limiting agent that almost certainly will not do more harm than it solves.

      Can someone please stop quoting Jurassic Park and give me a single example of genetically-engineered biological pest control of this sort backfiring, leading to significant new ecological problems? I don't mean the Simpsons-esque solution of importing snakes to eat the mice and gorillas to eat the snakes (which has happened in the past, I think); I mean sterile insect technique or stuff like this. It's very, very safe. Anyone who understands the first thing about biology should see that it's quite safe. Realistically, the worst that happens is it affects the species in its native range, and there are a dozen reasons why this isn't likely or likely to be catastrophic even if it did happen.

      But no, much better that we let more species in New Zealand go extinct, because Life Finds a Way and laboratory-designed genetic changes are always more dangerous than the countless millions of naturally occurring mutations.

    2. Re: go for it ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I especially like the "life finds a way" crowd in claiming these mutant mice will over run the world, and completely ignoring the species of life not finding a way and going extinct without our involvement, and many despite our best efforts to prevent it.

    3. Re:go for it ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How in the world are we supposed to "give you an example" when it hasn't been done before?

    4. Re:go for it ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It has been done before, countless times, by nature. Study up on research into Wolbachia for some specifics.

      Yes, I am a biologist.

  16. Uhh... let's consider this for a minute. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Mice were unintentionally introduced. Now we're modifying them to only have male offspring.

    What if a modified mouse gets off the island and back to continental Europe or the US? Opposite problem - mice go extinct. That too would be BAD

    1. Re:Uhh... let's consider this for a minute. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No it's brilliant, see, because only female mice will become extinct, and then FUCKING GENIUS SUPER CAPITALISTS will make SHIT TONS OF MONEY selling cloned mice.

  17. For the mice. by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    He's moved on to talking about doing something similar to humans. Introducing any other elements at that point is neither here nor there.

  18. Ask Australia by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    About Cane Toads. or for that matter read Farley Mowats stories of what wolves actually eat.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:Ask Australia by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      About Cane Toads. or for that matter read Farley Mowats stories of what wolves actually eat.

      Translation: Hiroshima was bad. Don't get a chest x-ray unless you want to risk killing 100,000 people.

      It's a complete and total disconnect from reality and rational thought that we're seeing from the neo-Luddites on the topic of genetic modification. Introducing a fundamentally self-destructive gene (in a very rapidly breeding species that has a zero percent chance of accidentally going extinct), has nothing whatsoever to do with importing a *genetically unmodified* nonnative predator to eat native beetles that are interfering with crop yields.

    2. Re: Ask Australia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You may be too young to remember, but people used to get X-rays at department stores.

      There's also a few cases of machine failures cause burns.

      Prudence shows grounds for caution.

    3. Re: Ask Australia by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Prudence shows grounds for caution.

      Sentences like these are just dumb catchphrases at best, and deliberate disingeniuity at worst. What is the "caution" you advise other than "not using them"? Me, I would say sure, go ahead and release them on a smaller island or two before you do the mainland. Beyond that, there's nothing left to test. You're either in favor of it or you aren't.

      Trying to sound all wise by advocating cautious prudence, without giving any specifics whatsoever on what course of action you're in favor of (yet implying that all kinds of unrealistic bad things could happen), is weak sauce.

    4. Re: Ask Australia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Trying to sound all wise by advocating cautious prudence, without giving any specifics whatsoever on what course of action you're in favor of (yet implying that all kinds of unrealistic bad things could happen), is weak sauce.

      There have been software errors associated with massive radiation doses which probably doomed some unhappy guys to death.

      And, no, I can't cite any sources nor will google it for you. I've read about it long ago and, you know what, as humans we do mistakes now and then.

      Like allowing female employees to hold brushes with radium with their teeth.

      If you want to be skeptical, fine, do was you wish. But don't associate that with scientific thinking. Stubborn skepticism -- like doubting the ton of studies about man's role in climate change -- is just stupidity, not science.

  19. Why not? by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    What does it matter if they genetically engineer themselves out of existence?

  20. 12 Monkeys by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    I'm pretty sure this was the plot of the 12 Monkeys.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:12 Monkeys by rtb61 · · Score: 2

      They are not creating a disease they are genetically altering mice to only produce male offspring. Reality is this will be far less successful than most people think. For a start they are not creating super mice that can out copulate other mice. Likely it will just be evolved out at any release site (those with the gene fix will be out bred by those without the gene fix), unless those mice will also out compete all other mice but they can keep repeating the exercise with increasing release numbers. That does not even touch an existing variant gene mouse, hidden out there somewhere that undoes the fix in the next generation. Isolated populations and random choice will make this an interesting gamble, very, very, unlikely to go wrong (mice are not plants and will not breed within the same genus), just simply fail.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    2. Re:12 Monkeys by Biogoly · · Score: 2

      Researchers have already tested the gene drive in a similar way (although not with mammals AFAIK). It is frighteningly effective. With the method they are proposing you don't need to make genetically superior mice that will out breed the others. By making the engineered mice only have male offspring they will be exploiting the delicate balance of ecology. The population starts out as 50/50 male/female, after a few generations it will be something like 52/48...more and more male engineered mice to breed with females, which leads to even more engineer male mice and so on. Eventually (and relatively quickly since mice have several litters a year) you reach a tipping point and the population crashes HARD. In an isolated place like New Zealand I would expect this could be 100% successful.

    3. Re:12 Monkeys by Tesseractic · · Score: 1

      The technique does indeed show promise for pest species.

      I just hope that the researchers have a good handle on all the
      ways it can go pear-shaped, including jumping species.

      - I used to be a perfectionist; now I am much better: I know how to compromise.

    4. Re:12 Monkeys by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

      Well, it was implied this is just one prong of a multilayered approach.

      And given house mice breed like crazy, I don't see why they couldn't use this in a similar way to the sterile insect technique. Breed millions upon millions of them. Saturation campaign (though you need to make sure their prey species aren't going to be taxed too severely.) The fact that they aren't actually infertile is a bonus.

      I hadn't pondered in-depth the effects of a modest release (possibly unintentional) with no support. It's not clear that the gene would die out *or* take over (and then die out as all mice die, femaleless.) It's actually a fascinating idea... given thousands of years, assuming females don't spontaneously re-emerge, they might end up evolving into a separate species, an obligate reproductive parasite of house mice that basically keeps its own numbers in check. Presumably, it would grow more K-selected and longer lived due to the need to not overbreed compared to its host species. Or it might just die out due to the moderate disadvantage in not siring any females. Not sure. It's an interesting thought experiment. Still not a danger we need to be worried about, but fascinating nonetheless.

    5. Re:12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you sure that females who can "sniff" out these males will not be successful.

    6. Re:12 Monkeys by LunaticTippy · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This technique would work especially well on bedbugs. They perform "traumatic insemination" which is using a knifelike penis to inseminate another bedbug through their exoskeleton. They are not very particular about the fertility status or even gender of the target. A surplus of males would effectively fuck everything to death.

      --
      Man, you really need that seminar!
    7. Re:12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In this case, in order to jump species, you'd have to have mice that were already capable of interbreeding with other species.

    8. Re:12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ugh - Imagine getting fucked to death by a surplus of male bed bugs...

    9. Re: 12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, horizontal gene transfer through viruses that infect hosts of different species is VERY COMMON. In fact, it is the biggest factor in the evolution of species. It's simply overlooked because it doesn't fit neatly into the random mutation theory of Darwin. Anyway, if the engineered gene can work in other species at some point viral infections will cause it to jump species boundaries even outside of mammals.

    10. Re:12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is a complex behavior/ability that doesn't have much time to emerge.

    11. Re:12 Monkeys by jeffb+(2.718) · · Score: 1

      Do you want Shonokins? Because that's how you get Shonokins.

    12. Re: 12 Monkeys by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Except you'd have to have a whole chromosome (second Y) transferred.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    13. Re:12 Monkeys by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 2

      Researchers have already tested the gene drive in a similar way (although not with mammals AFAIK). It is frighteningly effective. With the method they are proposing you don't need to make genetically superior mice that will out breed the others. By making the engineered mice only have male offspring they will be exploiting the delicate balance of ecology.

      There was some ethical discussion regarding humans choosing the sex of their offspring. While no one argued that extinction would take place, surprisingly small swings acn have huge ramifications. Let's say that a lot of people wanted boys. Perhaps because of sports prowess - who knows, but there are definitely cultures where it can be downright dangerous to be born female. So if enough males are born it changes the social dynamic, as more men will not reproduce The opposite is also true. If there was a choice to have more female children born, it would mean much mor ecompetition for the fewer number of males to reproduce with.

      It is almost certainly a self correcting problem for humans, hwo can presumably think, but for some animals, a small alteration will be disastrous over time, if it is a dominant trait.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    14. Re: 12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The CRISPR hack isn't to delete the entire X chromosome from the male mice they plan to release. The requirement is simply that no X chromosomes are present in the gametes contributed by males.

      Given that the X/Y gamete feature has been baked into mammals for quite a while now, the toggle for that feature is likely common to a very large set of mammals, and possibly up to chordates or beyond.

    15. Re:12 Monkeys by hoggoth · · Score: 1

      > A surplus of males would effectively fuck everything to death.

      Shout-out to Arizona State!

      --
      - For the complete works of Shakespeare: cat /dev/random (may take some time)
    16. Re: 12 Monkeys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Horizontal gene transfer through viruses used to be common in eukaryotes, but generally isn't any more, and right now it's certainly not the biggest factor in the evolution of vertebrates. Retroviruses used to be a lot more common and - because there were fewer defenses - they could jump more easily between species. Since defenses have become more specialized, viruses have had to as well, which means there's less cross-species jumping.

      Now, it's definitely still common in bacteria and other single-cell organisms, but that has no bearing on whether it'll jump from mice to something else.

  21. Obligatory by guruevi · · Score: 1

    Skinner: Well, I was wrong; the lizards are a godsend.
    Lisa: But isn't that a bit short-sighted? What happens when we're overrun by lizards?
    Skinner: No problem. We simply release wave after wave of Chinese needle snakes. They'll wipe out the lizards.
    Lisa: But aren't the snakes even worse?
    Skinner: Yes, but we're prepared for that. We've lined up a fabulous type of gorilla that thrives on snake meat.
    Lisa: But then we're stuck with gorillas!
    Skinner: No, that's the beautiful part. When wintertime rolls around, the gorillas simply freeze to death.

    --
    Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    1. Re:Obligatory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How does the Bear Patrol fit into this plan?

  22. Seems okay by me. by ip_freely_2000 · · Score: 1

    What could go wrong?

    1. Re:Seems okay by me. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Someone could accidentally transport a genetically modified population-collapsing NZ mouse elsewhere and release it in the natural habitat of this mouse species. That is what could go wrong.

  23. Great by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    I can already hear President Bannon asking, "Hey, can that be modified to just wipe out the mud people?"

  24. Why Mosquitos? by camperdave · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?

    --
    When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    1. Re:Why Mosquitos? by quenda · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?

      Gene drive techniques depend on sexual reproduction, but protozoa reproduce asexually, and can lay dormant as cysts.

    2. Re:Why Mosquitos? by ljw1004 · · Score: 1

      Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?

      Great idea! That way we could enjoy the incessant buzzing and painful bites of mosquitos that we know and love so well, safe in the knowledge that we're not also exposing ourselves to risk of malaria.

    3. Re:Why Mosquitos? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The root problem is not malaria, it is the presence of an insect that habitually introduces an unsanitary needle into our blood. We can wipe out malaria, but the vector still exists... just wait for a mosquioto-borne strain of HIV.

    4. Re:Why Mosquitos? by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Funny

      Because it's a mosquito! Malaria I can handle, but that buzzing at night is driving me crazy!

    5. Re:Why Mosquitos? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?"

      In this case, I'm with the "Kill the messenger" crowd. Besides, mosquitos transmit more than malaria. The earth will be a better place without those little fuckers around.

    6. Re:Why Mosquitos? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?

      Yes. That is exactly what we're doing. Nobody is paying for the goal of mosquito eradication. How do you wipe out the malaria protozoa? What are the methods? We do not have a doomsday vending machine that accepts coins and then eradicates a species. You have to invent a method. We have been trying everything we can think of.

      "Malaria treatment" is a method, but it isn't strong enough to kill the total disease population.
      "Vaccine" has been unattainable.
      "Genetic resistance" has happened on its own somewhat in nature, but is very weak and has terrible side effects. https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/sickle_cell.html
      "Prophylactic" is expensive, has side effects, and compliance problems.
      So far, the successful techniques target the mosquito, ex. sleeping mats.

    7. Re:Why Mosquitos? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... wipe out mosquitos instead ...

      Mosquitoes carry:
          Malaria parasite
          Elephantisis parasite
          Bot-fly eggs (maggots eat living flesh)
          yellow fever
          dengue fever
          Nile river fever
          Ross river fever

      It makes the mosquito the most lethal animal (to humans) on the planet.

    8. Re:Why Mosquitos? by Gussington · · Score: 1

      Why would they wipe out mosquitos instead of wiping out the true culprit: the malaria protozoa itself?

      Because mosquitos are easier to wipe out than a protozoa?
      Because mosquitos are fucking annoying to billions of people so it's a double win.

  25. Scary yes but by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At least NZ has a lot of small islands they can test this on. Islands small enough that 'kill it with fire' would work.

  26. Good question... by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    But you ask it like someone who isn't interested in finding out the answer.

  27. Vast New Zealand Eradication Plan by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2, Funny

    I'm too high to read the summary, but I'm hoping scientists aren't really planning to eradicate New Zealand. There are people there, right? Those guys that play rugby and do those war chants and stick their tongues out. It would be a shame to lose them. These are the guys I'm talking about.:

    https://youtu.be/yiKFYTFJ_kw

    I mean, if I'm on a rugby team and I show up for a game and the other team starts doing that shit, I'm forfeiting and going right home.

    I'll just hope the headline is misleading and the crazy rugby dudes and the hobbits and shit that live in New Zealand are gonna be alright.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:Vast New Zealand Eradication Plan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Meh. The haka is old hat, desperately overused, over exposed, and pretty much over. Everyone and their dog does it for any reason from a rugby game to getting a sandwich.

      The most hilarious part is that the local Maori are happy with their culture being used for a rugby game but do it for anything else and you get accused of commercialisation - as if the fucking All Blacks weren't the biggest commercial entity in NZ already. You can debase the 'warrior chant' for a fucking rugby game but don't you dare let some Americans do it, because that'd be racist.

    2. Re:Vast New Zealand Eradication Plan by quenda · · Score: 1

      Don't worry, most Kiwis have left the country already. There must be more NZ bro's in London or Sydney than in Wellington.

    3. Re:Vast New Zealand Eradication Plan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's the funny thing about consent.

  28. rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Zeala by rickyslashdot · · Score: 5, Insightful

    OUCH ! I hate to be the 'fear monger' here, but with CRISPR genetic modification, the changes are incorporated into the germ-line of that species, and will be passed down from generation - to - generation. This is the actual plan for the project, and it is being introduced into MAMMALS. Well, humans are also mammals, and similar enough to mice that the mouse line of mammals is very often used as the initial test-bed for medical research targeted at humans. How long will it take this CRISPR modification to jump species-lines, either from virus-aided transfer, or through some form of deliberate weaponization processes?

    Damn, I'm kinda' glad that I'm over 70, and hopefully won't be around when (IF) this extinction-level event happens. Granted, it will take multiple generations to spread throughout the global population, but a 'kill-switch' function, or even a more elegant technique involving a basic 'count-down' trigger that self-terminates after a certain number of generation transfers (similar to, and based on, the process of telomere shrinkage with each reproductive cycle), COULD be incorporated into the process in order to limit run-away disasters if the genetic alteration does get loose, or manages to cross species lines.

    I shudder to think of the implications of this research being developed to the point that it could target ANY species, and then the inevitable acquisition of the techniques by radicalized, medically-competent , scientists with either deep-pocket private backers, or state-sponsored support.

    One geographic transfer / escpe process that pops to mind is a bird, or other long distance traveller, that dumps fecal matter contaminated with this gene-line altering process still active in the biological waste, which then gets eaten by another scavenger (a REALLY HUNGRY individual), and . . . boom - - - the CRISPER agent is suddenly introduced into a population outside of the targeted area, and could very well move from a geo-bound area (like islands) to a wide-open continental arena.

    OK, so this is a '. . . sky is falling' scenario, but EVERY precaution needs to be considered - and planned for - when introducing a process that is deliberately designed for total species-line extermination, and there is just no way that ALL escape options will ever be able to be covered with 100% reliability.

    Enjoy your nightmares ! ! !

    --
    redneck geek
  29. Did it on American Dad by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sounds like the results of the Chinese one-child-per-family policy.

  30. Great. Billions of misogynists just found out... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Billions of misogynists just found out that mammals can be engineered to only have male children. No more floating the baby girls down the river. A few years and millions of secret investment and the male dynasties they've always dreamed of will be theirs. I'd bet the money is already flowing.

  31. Hmm. Less European Black Rats.... by robbak · · Score: 1

    Honestly, there are few places on this planet that couldn't do with a good eradication of the European Black Rat. Even if they did this with the domestic Cat - if every male cat was either neutered, a professional breeding animal or a GE males only animal - a whole lot of the world's feral cat problems would be solved. The only issue would be with animals that are potentially at risk in their native habitats - such as the possum.

    --
    Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
  32. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    With the mosquito experiments, the gene drive modified mosquitoes also get a gene that makes their eyes and other parts of their bodies glow red under laser light if the gene drive has taken hold.
    So we do the same for the mice, and if it somehow jumps to humans, we distribute lasers to all the female humans so they'll know who to not mate with.

  33. The NZ National Anthem: by robbak · · Score: 1

    "I Still Call Australia Home".

    --
    Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
  34. The genie and the bottle... by robbak · · Score: 1

    There is no point in not using something for good because it could be also used for bad. The existence of CRISPR is known, so the genie is out of the bottle.
    However, these techniques can't cause the nightmare you are considering. You need to inoculate the embryo to change it's genetics. So 'jumping species lines' would only be possible if the two species naturally interbred.
    So, enjoy your fictional nightmares - but we will remain in the real world, where only possible scenarios need to be considered.

    --
    Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
    1. Re:The genie and the bottle... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "There is no point in not using something for good because it could be also used for bad." Exactly! Time to drop some nukes!

    2. Re:The genie and the bottle... by soc_cost_priv_gains · · Score: 1

      You mean like Operation Plowshares?

    3. Re:The genie and the bottle... by hawk · · Score: 1

      > So 'jumping species lines' would only be possible if the two species naturally interbred.

      If they can breed and pass the gene, they're already the same species, by definition . . .

      However, for unnatural breeding, we should probably insert some kind of hillbilly joke here . . .

      hawk

    4. Re:The genie and the bottle... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Jumping species lines is already done daily, by viruses.

      What saves us from most of the viruses is that we are genetically too dissimilar to be infected. Or to be specific, we have the wrong proteins for the virus to work correctly on us, due to having the wrong DNA.

      Engineering a mouse that kills off it's own line is worrisome. First because we are not good at containing things. Second because the species is a mammal, meaning it is genetically very close to humans and other mammals. Forget the infection to humans for a second. What if it jumped to cows? Is there any species of mammal that you really think we would benefit from not having?

    5. Re:The genie and the bottle... by knorthern+knight · · Score: 1

      > > So 'jumping species lines' would only be possible if the two species naturally interbred.

      > If they can breed and pass the gene, they're already the same species, by definition . . .

      Not necessary. E.g. SIV (Simian Immunodeficiency Virus) jumped into humans, and became HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      > Virus strains from two of these primate species, SIVsmm in sooty mangabeys
      > and SIVcpz in chimpanzees, are believed to have crossed the species barrier
      > into humans, resulting in HIV-2 and HIV-1, respectively. The most likely route
      > of transmission of HIV-1 to humans involves contact with the blood of
      > chimps that are often hunted for bushmeat in Africa.

      --

      I'm not repeating myself
      I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
  35. Or you wind up with lots of gay mouse butt babies! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Think "Milo Yiannopoulos" writ large!

  36. Speaking of dumb... by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    You say all that like it matters on a site where people just write whatever to pass/kill/waste time.

  37. Easy solution: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Don't mate with mice.

  38. Re: Perils by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    Well, it's not like we are the old lady who swallowed a horse.

  39. Your pest is not my pest by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How long until some Australian who grows fruit and is tired of possums (which are native to Australia) eating it all brings a modified possum back to Oz and releases it? Many 'pest' organisms are important parts of ecosystems elsewhere in the world.

  40. Re:Science book by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    I think so, Brain, but I don't see how any of the books I saw Amazon have under "Featured" in their "Science & Math" section will help matters.

  41. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by olegalexandrov · · Score: 1

    The gene drive won't be able to jump species to get to humans. It won't get even to rats, as mice and rats are too different. Yet, it is likely that all species of mice on all continents will be gone if this is implemented. That's a much huger effect than wiping some mosquito species.

  42. Re:Besides the point... by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    You criticize the people who say, "But what if something bad happens?" But something bad happening is actually quite besides the point. Yes, something bad will happen, we will learn from it, something new bad will happen... eventually you do get to the gorillas that will die in the winter.

  43. Re:That's right, first problem and the answer is.. by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    So, if we were to do this and the mice get to where we don't want them, your idea of what will happen is that nobody will do anything about it and those populations will collapse as well. No, say, doing something else to eradicate the unintentionally affected population and then let unaffected regions move in and repopulate? Or something else? I don't know, but at least I'm more imaginative than you.

  44. Re:But Lefties Love Immigrants by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    I just went through a whirlwind education of what Left and Right used to mean and the scary thing is that both the liberals and conservatives are pretty far to the Left. The only real disagreement they have is what the government should tell the people they have to do.

  45. Re:Other things not to eradicate by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    The things that populate the Raimi-Tapert universes, like the Hercules and the Warrior Princesses.

  46. Re:I know what was really written... by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    ...but what went through my mind was, so now we're going to have mosquitoes that shoot lasers from their eyes... Great!

  47. How can this possibly work? by adamacr · · Score: 1

    I don't get it. If these mice have all male offspring, why won't they be out-bred by the mice that have females too? Why would a non-advantageous mouse gene be passed down and take over? Wouldn't natural selection kill off the genetically modified mice? If there end up being a bunch of males with very few females, most of the males won't pass down their genes, but all of the females will. Thus making sure the female-offspring-having normal mice survive and the males-only mice die off. What am I missing?

    1. Re:How can this possibly work? by tomhath · · Score: 1

      The gene is passed from father to son(s). Females breed with whatever male is available; most will get pregnant by the GM males and have all male litters. Lather, rinse, repeat. No more females.

    2. Re:How can this possibly work? by Yaztromo · · Score: 1

      If these mice have all male offspring, why won't they be out-bred by the mice that have females too? Why would a non-advantageous mouse gene be passed down and take over? Wouldn't natural selection kill off the genetically modified mice?

      The answer to your first question answers your entire set of questions.

      The basic driving force of evolution is reproduction. Fitter animals should produce more and fitter offspring, whereas less fit animals will either produce no offspring, or will produce less-fit offspring. That is one of the most basic premises of evolution.

      The issue here then is "fitness"[0], and whether or not the modified mice will have sufficient fitness to a) reproduce, and b) introduce their genes into the next generation.

      The modification only changes the outcome of birth -- all mice fathered by the modified mice will exhibit the same modification, and will be born male. It doesn't impact their ability to reproduce, or their ability to fill their ecological niche. The mice will be at no reproductive disadvantage when compared to non-modified male mice, in that they will be just as likely to survive to reproduce, and will not have a shortened lifespan that causes them to reproduce any less than a non-modified male. Thus they won't be out-bred; a female mouse isn't going to have any way to distinguish (at an evolutionary level) between a modified and non-modified male. Now if the modified males also glowed bright green and failed to attract female mates, then you'd have a situation where the modified males would be at a disadvantage, however, that isn't the case here.

      Not only will there will be no evolutionary disadvantage to the modified males in terms of reproduction, over time they'll actually have the advantage. Assuming litter sizes average out the same, ALL the offspring of modified males will also be modified males. Let's call that average M. The offspring of unmodified males will be mixed male and female; the average number of unmodified male mice offspring will be M/2 (as half will be male, half female). The modified mouse will have double the male offspring of the unmodified mouse. The population of modified male mice will increase linearly, whereas the population of unmodified mice will (at least initially) be relatively stable.

      Over a longer time period, female mice will be more and more likely to mate with modified male mice, as they will be more available. I essence, this gene modification hacks evolution by making the modified mice MORE fit than the unmodified mice, in that their offspring will be more competitive in terms of mating with females, due to sheer numbers. As females die and are replaced with fewer and fewer females, and as the modified male population continues to soar, you're eventually going to get to a point where the only available males in a community to mate with the few remaining females is going to be modified males, who will only produce male offspring. Those last remaining females will eventually die off, and with no new females within a given local population, no further reproduction can occur, at which point the population of remaining males eventually dies off.

      (I do note a "local population", as this only works within populations that reproduce together. Geographic or other divisions in reproductive populations may cause certain islands of mice to continue unaffected if there isn't a critical mass of modified males. So if the country mice and city mice don't reproduce together, one or the other may be unaffected if the modified mice aren't artificially introduced).

      All of which would make for an interesting computer simulation. I may have to get on that this weekend.

      All that said, it will be interesting to see what behavioural changes may be introduced in newer generations as the number of males begins to strongly outnumber the females, and opportunities for the males to reproduce decreases. Will male mice become more territorial? Mouse combat to the death for acces

    3. Re:How can this possibly work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >Will male mice become more territorial?

      They're already pretty damned territorial if you try to cage them together. With wild type mice, even the females will fight to the death if they're not siblings.

    4. Re:How can this possibly work? by j-beda · · Score: 1

      Nicely explained. Results of similations with various numbers of modified and unmodified males would be interesting. My intuition is that except for situations with a small number of modified males and some bad luck for those starting males, that they would always dominate unless there are isolated groups. I can't see how the unmodifed ones would ever go extinct until all the females are gone, and and can't see how the unmodifed ones would ever increase their fraction of the population - but simulations would give some wieght to those intuitions.

  48. Re:Science book by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

    Wikipedia, then. Start by reading about how human and also other mammalian hermaphrodites are almost never (possibly never in recorded history?) fertile as both males and females because of how unusual it would be to have a fully functional testicle and ejaculatory ducts and prostate *and* a fully functional ovary and vagina and uterus instead of the usual middle ground of streak gonads, blind vaginas, nonexistent sperm, etc. Possibly the most plausible way such a being could form would be via a chimeric hermaphrodite... but such an organism would sire or give birth to regular offspring, not hermaphrodites.

    In other words, mammals aren't frogs. And even if there's some weirdass brand of mammalia I'm not familiar with that does this, that doesn't mean a species from Rodentia could or would copycat them over the course of a few generations just because there are too many males around.

  49. Re:Besides the point... by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

    While I don't disagree that risk and failure are an unavoidable part of science (or indeed being alive), for the sake of sanity and clear thinking (not to mention for the sake of the numerous endangered species of New Zealand) I think the primary argument should be about the nature of the risks we face here. Arguing whether or not the risk is worth it should come only after we roughly agree on what those risks are. Even for "unknown unknowns"... you can maybe make those arguments (as some did) when you're testing the world's first atomic bomb or something, but this right here simply is not a very black swan-prone project.

  50. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by neoRUR · · Score: 1

    Well we can always just turn the gene back on if we start getting too many males...

  51. Re:Science book by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There actually are some such cases. They're referred to as the "guevedoces", a particular inbred South American population for whom a significant number of females transform to male at puberty. They're genetically and biochemically and culturally *fascinating* people.

  52. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You could sell it to societies who value male offspring more than female offspring and watch these antiquated societies die off.

  53. Re:Science book by Shane_Optima · · Score: 1

    There actually are some such cases. They're referred to as the "guevedoces", a particular inbred South American population for whom a significant number of females transform to male at puberty. They're genetically and biochemically and culturally *fascinating* people.

    As god as my witness, upon reading your post I was positive that "guevedoces" was going to end up being a Spanish epithet for regular transgendered people.

    But yeah, I've already heard of that syndrome (though I wasn't aware of its special prevalence in DR). And, like I said, it is not going to produce individuals who are fertile as both males and females. If you have fully functional testes, you almost certainly do not have functional ovaries (to say nothing of a fully formed uterus, vagina, and the hormonal ability to ovulate and produce sperm properly.) Even if you stipulate they don't have to be fertile as both male and female at the same time, it's still not a realistic outcome. The hermaphrodite species that people point to have vastly different sexual differentiation systems, many not even having the XY chromosome system at all. The evolution of things like endothermy (responsible for scrotums, among other things) and breasts must have tremendously changed the dynamics of sexual differentiation.

  54. Meanwhile, back at the ranch... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This doesn't even work on mosquitoes, much less mice. Or humans.

    http://www.nature.com/news/gene-drives-thwarted-by-emergence-of-resistant-organisms-1.21397

  55. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Humans are the most destructive organism this planet has ever had. We have caused mass extinction rivalled only by the meteor strike which killed dinosaurs.

    Freeing the planet from its ecosystem-destroying, climate-altering, globally spread invasive species is a nightmare to you?

  56. Where does it end though? by seoras · · Score: 1

    I moved to NZ from Scotland 3 years ago, I live on a little 10 acre "lifestyle block" on the north island.
    Coming from N.Europe it's weird seeing things like hedgehogs running around here.
    Brought here by the europeans who wanted to terra form NZ into something almost recognisable as the place the left behind.
    They brought just about everything from the British Isles, except the fox (thankfully).

    I recently came across a nest of hedgehogs in my barn and I did some online research as I think I might have made the mother abandon the nest by discovering it.
    Found Hedgehogrescue NZ

    Now coming from Scotland I know that there was an attempt to eradicate them from the Hebrides as they were eating the native bird eggs.
    So why would Kiwi's (NZ-ers) want to save Hedgehogs if the goal is to make NZ more like it was where the Kiwi bird can roam free and re-establish on the mainlands?

    I'll go further, what about the domestic cat? If you get rid of the all the mice (& rats) what does the (large) population of wild domestic cats live off?
    Wild pigs too? I could go on...

    I'm all for the eradication of the NZ mosquitos. :)

    1. Re:Where does it end though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hedgehogs are considered an unwanted pest by New Zealand's Department of Conservation. You don't have to kill every hedgehog you see in NZ, but... you know... it wouldn't be a bad thing if you did.

      Most kiwis don't really care about hedgehogs. They're liked (for clearing gardens of snails etc.) or tolerated, but they're not native and they're not especially dear to the nation's heart.

      New Zealanders who rescue hedgehogs only do so because they think hedgehogs are cute, and as we all know, cuteness in other animals can induce outright stupidity in humans. Our feral cats and feral pigs should definitely be eradicated, too, and the only opposition to that idea comes from our small but plaintively squeaky population of feral fucking morons.

    2. Re:Where does it end though? by cryptizard · · Score: 1

      People already want to get rid of wild cats, that's why they try to catch and fix as many as possible.

    3. Re:Where does it end though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is indeed a small movement to get rid of cats as well in NZ. Gareth Morgan is probably the most notable of the anti-cat peeps - and as he's coincidentally just launched a political party it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see this issue enter public debate during or after the next election assuming he gets enough % of the vote to enter parliament.

  57. Oh those BAD BAD Whites!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    along with other invasive species introduced by Westerners

    I just want to state for the record that I have never been within 1000 nautical miles of New Zealand. Don't blame this on me too. I have enough White Guilt baggage to contend with as it is.

    On a more serious note, it seems that this plan does not take into consideration the most basic principle of natural selection: survival of the fittest (or in other words, the genes of those that are able to produce the most offspring will start to dominate in a population). This plan on the other hand wants to introduce just a small number of individuals in the population in the hopes that their genes will spread to the whole population, while at the same time the very same genes are responsible for the carriers eventually having less offspring than non-carriers (even if it is not in the first generation). Well, I assume they know more about biology than I do...

    1. Re:Oh those BAD BAD Whites!! by j-beda · · Score: 1

      along with other invasive species introduced by Westerners

      I just want to state for the record that I have never been within 1000 nautical miles of New Zealand. Don't blame this on me too. I have enough White Guilt baggage to contend with as it is.

      On a more serious note, it seems that this plan does not take into consideration the most basic principle of natural selection: survival of the fittest (or in other words, the genes of those that are able to produce the most offspring will start to dominate in a population). This plan on the other hand wants to introduce just a small number of individuals in the population in the hopes that their genes will spread to the whole population, while at the same time the very same genes are responsible for the carriers eventually having less offspring than non-carriers (even if it is not in the first generation). Well, I assume they know more about biology than I do...

      Yeah, but evolutions doesn't "know" about later generational effects - it only works on the basis of the following generation - to first approximation. Yes, having helpful grandparents might increase your breeding effectiveness by a few percentage over your neighbours, but there is a HUGE advantage to having all of your kids being able to mate with the scare resource of the available females compared to having only half of your children being able to mate with the scare resource of available females. The fraction of modified mice in each generation should increase by quite a bit.

      If the odds of finding a mate and having kids is the same for modified (MM) and unmodified (UM) male mice, and they are competing for the same number of unmodified (UF) female mice, for a stable population, the chances of breeding have to be about equal to the inverse of the average number of males in the average litter (AL), so that (for the unmodified case) the population each generation is about the same. Some mice get eaten or stepped on before having kids.

      In the first generation (UM)1 = (UF)1 and (MM)1 is however many are introduced, and the total (TM) male mice population would be (TM)1 = (MM)1+(UM)1. The fraction of modified mice is (FMM)1= (MM)1 / (TM)1, the fraction of unmodified males is (FUM)1 = (UM)1 / (TM)1.

      Since the odds of living until having kids and the average litter size cancel each other out, in the second generation the number of unmodified females would be found by multiplying the number of females by the fraction of unmodified males in the previous geneation: (UF)2 = (UF)1 x (FUM)1, similarly the number of unmodified males would be found by multiplying the number of unmodifed males by the fraction of unmodified males in the previous geneation: (UM)2 = (UF)1 x (FUM)1. The number of modified males would be found by multiplying the number of females by the fraction of modified males in the previous geneation and then multiplying that by two since all of their kids are male compared to half of the kids of unmodified males being boys: (MM)2 = 2(UF)1 x (FMM)1

      In the second generation the number of unmodified males and unmodified females is equal, and less then it was in the previous generation by a factor of (FMM)1. Since for the modified males, all of their kids are males they get he fraction of modified males in the second generation is
      (FMM)2 = (MM)2 / (TM)2
      = (MM)2 / [(MM)2 + (UM)2]
      = [2(UF)1 x (FMM)1] / [2(UF)1 x (FMM)1 + (UF)1 x (FUM)1]
      = 2(FMM)1 / 2(FMM)1 + (FUM)1]

      This happens each genration, the fraction of modifed males increase each breeding cycle. For generation n we have

      (FMM)(n+1) = 2(FMM)n / 2(FMM)n + (FUM)n]

      In any generation, if the number of modified males is only a small fract

  58. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Won't happen.

    Firstly, instead of a lab-friendly non-viral method for CRISPR modification, you'd have to use a viral delivery method, and a virus that spreads easily and is hard to detect or contain. If you had one of those, you might as well just kill people with it directly, instead of just using it to give them a gene that makes them father only males.

    Secondly, you'd have to find a way to keep anybody from noticing that some males were only fathering male offspring. You'd have to keep this a secret for several generations of that species. If it was humans, there's no way it would go unnoticed.

    Thirdly, it would have to be irreversible. Somehow, in addition to using CRISPR to set the process off in the first place, you'd have to find a way to prevent anyone from using CRISPR to reverse it, and also prevent anyone from taking other measures to contain the event, like just sterilising the affected males.

    That's an absurdly unlikely confluence of scenarios you're worried about.

  59. And what happens.. by pmaitrot · · Score: 1

    Good plan! I hope they to the same with other predators like possums and rats. Ive lived in NZ for some time and the local birds there are a) very unique and vulnerable and b) dying out faster than anyone thought.. so most of the current plans on breeding new kiwis and takahes, kakas, hihis, wekas and so on just delay the problem. Hopefully until a master plan is found . Did you know that almost all lizards are endangered too? But, I just had the idea of what happens and history repeats itself, this time with one of the male GE mice leaving NZ and travelling to continental asia or europe...

  60. Re:That's right, first problem and the answer is.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But what if something goes catastrophically wrong, for several decades, if not centuries, without anybody noticing?

    What if, after it's all gone wrong for several decades if not centuries, we notice, but it's too late to reverse process X, using process X again? What if decades or centuries have gone by and we've collectively forgotten to develop any methods or technology superior to process X?

    What if cheese-scientists invent a kind of cheese that just keeps growing and converting its surroundings into cheese, incredibly slowly, and also everyone in the world simultaneously becomes too stupid to deal with the supercheese? That too would be BAD.

    WINKING EMOTICON

  61. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or make a second modification so it only produces gay males.

  62. Reverse migration? Worldwide effect? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What if one mouse from New Zealand boards a ship headed elsewhere?

    What if they subsequently introduce the gene drive to mice living in Eurasia, America or Africa?

    Who's going to stop the mechanism and prevent the mouse population from collapsing in places where it wasn't meant to?

  63. Eradicating New Zealand seems a bit harsh. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What have they ever done to us?

  64. Silly politicians by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    Evolution doesn't work that way.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  65. Rat species by mpercy · · Score: 1

    First you have mice and rats.

    Then you have chipmunks and squirrels, which are just rats with fluffy tails.

    There's also Canada geese, which are just big fat flying rats.

    And then you have deer, which are just rats on steroids.

    1. Re: Rat species by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And njggers, which are dark-skinned rats from Africa that have no redeeming qualities.

  66. Other countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What if one of those mice gets to other countries, wouldn't that crash that country's mice population and so on? Other countries wouldn't mind getting rid of all aedes mosquitos but not their native mammals species. This plan is selfish and uncalled for.

  67. I love Jurassic Park. by grep+-v+'.*'+* · · Score: 1

    Nature finds a way. --- Haven't they seen Jurassic Park?

    I dislike Jeff Goldblum but I absolutely HATE that line.

    Life finds a way....unless it DOESN'T. Just ask the Dodo, the dinosaur, the Neanderthal, and all of the other extinct species. But you can't, they're extinct; ask one of these instead.

    Life TRIES to find a solution (anthropomorphising life? It that legal?) but -- like everything else -- has resource restraints. If there's time and it can and it's lucky, it succeeds and offspring enjoys the benefits. If not, there's no offspring. Either way NO PROBLEM. That is unless you're the missing offspring.

    Gaia? Save the Earth? Complete nonsense, the EARTH will do just fine with or without us. Just see Venus, Mars, or even Jupiter. Now the biosphere that we live in? That you might want to save.

    --
    If the universe is someone's simulation -- does that mean the stars are just stuck pixels?
  68. Re:Besides the point... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You do realize the Sisisphyean task you have set yourself up for?

    I congratulate you on your wit, persistence and clarity of thought.

    But Murphy was an optimist.

  69. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With the mosquito experiments, the gene drive modified mosquitoes also get a gene that makes their eyes and other parts of their bodies glow red under laser light if the gene drive has taken hold.
    So we do the same for the mice, and if it somehow jumps to humans, we distribute lasers to all the female humans so they'll know who to not mate with.

    Except the researchers messed up and actually brought along some cat genes. So the afflicted males would just chase the laser. Most women thought this was endearingly attractive and mated with the transgenic individuals.

    Disaster ensued. But not before YouTube failed under the weight of uploaded male laser chasing videos.

  70. Maybe Not by JimSadler · · Score: 1

    So one or two of these modified mice escape to other nations and the world wide existence of mice is extinguished. Many creatures feed on mice as a basic part of their diet.

  71. Sooooo. It's like San Jose? by mnemotronic · · Score: 1

    Released in large enough numbers on an island

    Or in a Google or Amazon R&D facility

    the daughterless rodents

    i.e. S/W developers

    could, over the course of several months to a few years, result in a ... population that is, so to speak, all Mickey and no Minnie. Then (they) die out.

    Well. It hasn't happened yet. The pesky males keep finding ways to breed.

    --
    The Russians have won. They have made the world a cesspool of distrust, greed, fear and hate.
  72. helix by ixidor · · Score: 1

    just came here to say, this is essentially the plot of season 2 of helix http://www.imdb.com/title/tt27... group of immortals wants to control the world population. one faction wants to go "nuclear", and another wants to introduce something like this to make only males.

  73. Re: rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Z by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you really want to lose sleep realize that any smart undergrad could do this without particularly unusual equipment...

  74. Re: rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Z by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think it's for reasons like this that the future will have zero privacy.

  75. This post again - ha? by no-body · · Score: 1

    One would think if rats can do that:
    https://www.boatingwithdawsons...

    Mice might do this as well or stow away in boxes, containers etc. getting moved on a wider journey... Good luck to all the critters/birds on other continents to depend on mice for their main staple - birds of prey etc.

    Do people have brains these days and not learned from zebra mussels? This one is devastating, wipes out a species including sub-species and/or closely related. There are cross-breeds between close relatives, right?

    Maybe people thinking of playing with this need a booster chromosome somewhere?
     

  76. Please send this to Australia by jonwil · · Score: 1

    I have seen first hand the damage mice can do when my old apartment was infested with the things and anything that got rid of them would be great.

  77. Re:rst Gene Drive In Mammals Could Aid Vast New Ze by Gussington · · Score: 1

    OK, so this is a '. . . sky is falling' scenario, but EVERY precaution needs to be considered - and planned for - when introducing a process that is deliberately designed for total species-line extermination

    Well it's good we have Slashdot, otherwise no-one else would have thought about this.
    How you think these things work?

  78. Filthy liberal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Introduced by westerners".

    Factually true, but sadly that is not what is implied. New Zealand was hardly pristine before The Westeners arrived.

    Be good and mention the earlier work The Pacific Islanders did to wipe out the moa and the Haast's eagle. All by themselves.

    The author could have just written "the arrival of mankind".

  79. it's the mouse, not something else, being changed by hawk · · Score: 1

    huh?

    Virus that can infect multiple species aren't even uncommon enough to raise interest.

    This is about the *gene* jumping species, which is nonsense for animals (plants are another matter, and I can't even guess as to other kingdoms).

    That is, they're editing the genes of the released mice, not infecting the mice.

    hawk

  80. Fear and Trembling by cwsumner · · Score: 1

    "Changes to species should be approached with fear and trembling ... and a very powerful computer!"

    Robert A. Heinlein, "Glory Road", 1963

    "Never trust anyone who is -too- confident in what they are going to do!"

    Me, 1968

  81. Summary is a bit wrong by LabRatty · · Score: 1

    The target for NZ is Rattus Rattus and the Brushtail possum, they are the main predators that raid nests for both eggs and nestlings. The technique has so far been tested in mice but they are not the first concern. Stoats, weasels, feral cats are all issues in NZ but the rats and possums are the big targets since they don't just go after adult birds. Hedgehogs have been seen raiding eggs, but they prefer slugs and the population is small so they might be able to live alongside the native species with no major impact.
    Another big problem is actually German Wasps, they eat the honeydew that the birds need, significantly harming breeding success.