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Bill Gates: The Robot That Takes Your Job Should Pay Taxes (qz.com)

In a recent interview with Quartz, Bill Gates said he believes that governments should tax companies that use robots who are taking human jobs, as a way to at least temporarily slow the spread of automation and to fund other types of employment. The money gained from taxing robots could then be used to finance jobs taking care of elderly people or working with kids in schools -- jobs which humans are particularly well suited for. Quartz reports: [Gates] argues that governments must oversee such programs rather than relying on businesses, in order to redirect the jobs to help people with lower incomes. The idea is not totally theoretical: EU lawmakers considered a proposal to tax robot owners to pay for training for workers who lose their jobs, though on Feb. 16 the legislators ultimately rejected it. "You ought to be willing to raise the tax level and even slow down the speed" of automation, Gates argues. That's because the technology and business cases for replacing humans in a wide range of jobs are arriving simultaneously, and it's important to be able to manage that displacement. "You cross the threshold of job replacement of certain activities all sort of at once," Gates says, citing warehouse work and driving as some of the job categories that in the next 20 years will have robots doing them. You can watch Gates' remarks in a video here, or read the transcript embedded in Quartz' report.

26 of 388 comments (clear)

  1. Does That Include Software? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Does that include WYSIWYG word processing software that put all those typesetters out of work? Bill, you owe some back taxes.

  2. What a load... by fustakrakich · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Exactly the reverse should happen. Prices have to be driven down. Nobody is going to pay the tax but us.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    1. Re:What a load... by mrvan · · Score: 3, Informative

      A nit but corporations are groups of people with all the rights and responsibilities of those individuals. We only treat them as "a person" as legal shorthand.

      Not quite. The whole point of a incorporated / limited liability company and equivalent entities (Inc, llc, Ltd, SA, GmbH, NV, etc) is that owners are only liable up to their investment, i.e. you are not responsible for the debts of the corporation; not individually and not as a group. You can lose your investment, but that's the limit of your liability. If the group of owners of e.g. a coal plant would have the "rights and responsibilities" of the entity, they would be collectively responsible for its debts, e.g. cleanup costst, if it goes bankrupt. As a corporation, the plant goes bankrupt, the owners lose their investments (their shares are worthless), but remaining debts and liabilities cannot be collected.

      Because this creates moral hazard and can cause society to be left with unpaid liabilities (tax, legal liabilities such as cleanup costs) historically they could only be created by special government fiat ("royal charter"), an implicit collective acceptance that the benefits outweigh the risk to society, and their number was quite limited for a long time, with famous corporations like the Dutch and British East India Companies among the earliest examples. Now, however, anybody and their uncle can start a llc/corporation, and while in theory the managers can be held responsible if they act in bad faith (e.g. take out loans, funnel the money to Caymans, declare bankruptcy) this is not prosecuted nearly often enough.

  3. tax profit yes but not to slow automation by presidenteloco · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Look. We're going to have to accept, in the near future, that smart machines are better than humans at many tasks.

    So why would we want, as humans, to keep doing those tasks? Isn't that just embarrassing to keep trying? You're not actually being useful. You're just pretending to be.

    So yes, businesses that make profit via automated processes should pay tax to help give people a UBI (universal basic income), but the tax shouldn't be different than paid by any profitable business.

    Why keep people working at tasks they are second-rate at? Doesn't make any sense. People should be free to find something actually meaningful and useful to do, given their unique experience and talent. They shouldn't do make-work projects that a robot can do better. That's just a dumb policy.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    1. Re:tax profit yes but not to slow automation by JoeMerchant · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Smart machines are already much better at tasks I used to do by hand.

      In the 1980s I was hand-writing 6502 assembly code. I don't do that anymore. I don't even know how most of the current Skylake, et. al. x86 instruction sets work - smart machines do that for me.

      I used to hand-code instructions to 16550 UART chips to feed data across RS-232 lines, I handled the framing, timing, response to interrupt when the 16 byte buffer was ready for more data, etc. Today I'm issuing packets to AMQP exchanges that distribute them over TCP/IP, my data doesn't just travel across the room, it's distributed globally, and "smart machines" handle a half dozen protocol layers between my data and the kind of things I used to program the 16550 chips to do.

      People built those "robots" in the last 20 years, and because of them we're all doing more, with less work. (let's not even get into the contrast between /. and the BBS code I wrote to run over a 300 baud modem...)

    2. Re:tax profit yes but not to slow automation by clovis · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You should watch and understand.. the movie Elysium.

      Got it, you believe that movies are reality. Sadly I'm not surprised.

      I've seen other's make that response on Slashdot when someone suggests seeing a movie, show, or read some book to explain some point.
      Aw, c'mon people. You know perfectly well literature, movies, theatre, etc are a way to explore what-if scenario's, to make predictions, and to hold up a mirror to some aspect of reality that may not be easy to quantify. You use literature to conduct Gedankenexperiments because there's no way to do ABA testing on human society. The method is older than Socrates.

      For example, suppose you were talking to someone who was thinking about morality and self-interest and you suggested they read Atlas Shrugged or something else that explores that topic, or even see a movie made from the book. Suppose they responded with "So you think books are reality". Would you think that person was being a retard or just a jerk? And it's not an XOR in this case.
      Either way, saying that doesn't do anything to validate whatever point you were originally trying to make.

  4. Re:Modern money theory by h33t+l4x0r · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That's his whole point. He's arguing for slowing down automation so that everyone doesn't lose their jobs all at once.

  5. Re:that's it. the end game. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Sounds fine. The robot's salary is $0. 25% tax of $0 is $0.

  6. Great idea by guruevi · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Let the countries that don't tax their robot manufacturers take all the production AND the jobs.

    The problem isn't robots or automation, it's corporations like Microsoft and people like Gates that are the problem. They pay taxes at zero or even negative rates and then expect the government to provide "free" healthcare and unemployment for their employees (which in turn makes their employees pay for it).

    I'd say repeal all taxes and only tax things coming in over state borders at one rate and things coming in over national borders at a higher rate for all finished products and "intellectual property". This would encourage more local and domestic development. If Microsoft wants to import code from India, have it taxed based on the time and resources it took to develop abroad -or- if they want to avoid that, have it put into public domain.

    --
    Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    1. Re:Great idea by psmoot · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The problem isn't robots or automation, it's corporations like Microsoft and people like Gates that are the problem. They pay taxes at zero or even negative rates and then expect the government to provide "free" healthcare and unemployment for their employees (which in turn makes their employees pay for it).

      Microsoft ultimately doesn't pay taxes. Only people bear the burden of taxes. That could be Microsoft's employees (through lower wages), customers (through higher prices) or investors (through lower profits), generally a combination of all three. Microsoft is only the channel the government uses to collect the taxes. That being said, I don't think the Billster avoids all taxes. Very few people pay no taxes.

      I'm not sure why Microsoft should provide charity to people. I'd much rather Microsoft (and other companies) focused on producing products and services. Charity and aid to the poor is something else. It should be driven by individuals and/or society as a whole through our government. I think bringing corporations into it just confuses the situation.

      I'd say repeal all taxes and only tax things coming in over state borders at one rate and things coming in over national borders at a higher rate for all finished products and "intellectual property".

      I'm with you up until the border thing. Economists tend to think the most efficient and least distorting thing to do is toss all existing taxes and replace them all with a single, broad-based consumption tax. I despair of that ever happening. Politicians and lobbyists have way too much interest in putting in as many special provisions as they can.

    2. Re:Great idea by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Informative

      Economists tend to think the most efficient and least distorting thing to do is toss all existing taxes and replace them all with a single, broad-based consumption tax.

      I won't support that because it's broadly regressive: poor people pay a higher percentage of their income as tax. You can kind of balance it out, but when that happens (like in California), the middle class pays the highest percentage.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  7. Re:that's it. the end game. by Gussington · · Score: 3, Interesting

    only death is left for humans in the inevitable.

    The only thing that is inevitable is prophets of doom every time a technology article is released.
    Had you explained life in 2017 to someone from 1840, it would be unbelievable. And a person from 1840 might not be able to live in 2017 successfully doesn't mean that there aren't still billions of humans doing just that today. So to analyse the prophet of doom a bit further, what you really mean is, a person with a brought up in 2017 would probably find life in 2087 a gap too far to bridge. But that doesn't mean humans in 2087 won't find whatever world they're living in as normal (and likely enjoying a higher standard of living)

  8. Because Human Nature by s.petry · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Don't pretend that science does not exist just because your narrative is harmed by science. Most normal humans don't want to sit around and do nothing, they want to be productive and make personal goals, balance risk versus security, have control of their destiny, and be able to provide better for their families than they did for themselves. Normal humans don't want to have the same job as everyone else, don't want to live in the same kind of house, wear the same kinds of clothing, eat the same foods, etc.. etc.. etc... The whole point of every story of Utopia ever written is that Utopia CAN NOT EXIST! Individuality is part of being a human, and individual liberty is the normal state of a human.

    Don't sit around telling us how great science is when you ignore it.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

    1. Re:Because Human Nature by Jeremi · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Most normal humans don't want to sit around and do nothing, they want to be productive and make personal goals, balance risk versus security, have control of their destiny, and be able to provide better for their families than they did for themselves.

      The above is all very true, but it doesn't follow that humans therefore want to spend their working hours doing tedious manual labor that could be done better by a robot. (I'm not sure you were saying that it did follow, btw)

      Ask just about anyone what their dream job would be, and they'll tell you. Ask them why they aren't currently doing their dream job, and they'll tell you that as well -- often it's because there's little or no money to be made as an actor or dance instructor or professional hang glider pilot or artisanal woodworker or etc. Many of these activities can only be hobbies instead of jobs, because people need to feed their children and pay the rent, and so they are forced into doing whatever drudgery the market is willing to pay for, instead of the activities they are really good at and enjoy doing.

      But does it have to be that way forever? Without robots and AI, the answer is probably, yes -- there are un-fun tasks that nevertheless need to be done, so those are largely the tasks that society is willing to pay for. The garbage bins aren't going to empty themselves, and all that.

      But in a future society where robots can perform most of these everyday tasks effectively "for free"; there is no reason to force a human being to do those tasks. Instead, with the menial labor done by robots, the wage-slaves could then be freed up to pursue whatever "dream job" they want to have, regardless of whether they can find someone willing to pay them much (or anything) to do that job, or not.

      How could they afford it? Either because the robot labor has made goods and services so cheap that even a minimal salary is still plenty to meet one's financial needs, or because a system has been set up to tax the robots and use that money to subsidize paying salaries for jobs that would otherwise not be economically possible. Probably a combination of those two things.

      Is that happy scenario inevitable? Not on the short term -- the default scenario would be that the owners of the robots keep all their robot-generated wealth to themselves, and become incredibly rich while everyone else becomes unemployed. But what happens then -- when 99% of the population is on welfare? The only difference between that and the "happy scenario" is that the out-of-work majority has no incentive to do anything constructive, and is still viewing their unemployment as a personal failure rather than an inevitable consequence of superhuman AI -- and that stigma will fade rapidly once it becomes apparent that it applies to everyone, not just to the traditional "losers". At that point, people will stop calling it "welfare" and start calling it a "basic living stipend", and if democracy still exists, they will adjust the funding levels provided by it such that the robots' productivity is enjoyed by all and not just by the super-rich.

      But that leaves the problem of hopeless couch-potato-ism; so an enhancement to just cash handouts would be encouraging people to pursue their dream activities, and paying them to do so. Then we'd have people living rewarding lives that they chose for themselves, rather than sitting around feeling bad about being on the dole, or slowly dying inside doing tedious make-work.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  9. Ryan and Rand by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Years ago, the Right Wing realized the US has waaay more people than they needed (those needs only being cord wood troopers for lucrative Endless War (TM), former Seal Team 6 security goons, and only the top-shelf prostitutes and rent boys). So short of rolling the cattle trucks and firing up the ovens, how best to get rid of all these useless people?

    The total destruction of any type of governmental safety net. Cut most and privatize the rest (just like they are with jails and prisons), and all those un-needed proles will stop dropping like flies. First the aged, then the disabled, and most of the poor (with of a carve-out for the true believer white ones).

    Donald's daily circus shit-show is merely distraction from the real agenda of Ayn Rand devotees like Ryan.

    1. Re:Ryan and Rand by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think what you're missing is that those programs are still around despite the efforts of the Republican Party's Libertarian wing, and not for lack of trying, either.

      Their main problem (in addition to the occasional opposition from the Democrats) is that many Republicans are retirement-age, or have children or grandchildren, and so when they realize that the "waste" that the Republicans are promising to cut is actually their own benefits, they rebel and put a quick stop to the proposed cuts. The libertarians are still working on a way to convince their Republican constituency that their draconian budget cuts will only hurt "other people", but they're running out of dog-whistles for that.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  10. Re:The Cxx that took my job should pay taxes by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful

    When your goal is to reduce headcount, you should have to pay for it.

    People who say this are morons...

    If you make it expensive to fire people or lay them off (like they do in parts of Europe), then people are very reluctant to hire in the first place...

    Companies will then do anything they can to avoid hiring anyone extra to start with...

  11. Re:Modern money theory by peragrin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Gets better

    Define robot taking away a job?

    As 30 years ago. Companies would need lots of accountants and billing people. Those jobs were replaced by Windows computers running accounting software that did the math and run reports for them so they didn't need so many people to do more work than was previously possible.

    Is that a robot since it replaced a high paying job?

    Should Microsoft be taxed for job loss?

    Why don't people ever think things through?

    --
    i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
  12. Re:that's it. the end game. by mysidia · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The government should impute the wages that a human worker would be paid in 2010 with a Human cost-of-living adjustment based on the Robot's job description, For a given amount of Company revenue by industry.

    Then Double the quantity

    And compare the Wages the Company is currently paying every month to the Imputed Wages based on the greater of the Total number of robots Jobs, and based on the Company's total revenue and Industry.

    Make the companies Pay standard Employee Taxes on the difference between the Imputed Sum and the Actually paid sum, Including what the Social security, Medicare, Income Tax, and Healthcare benefits would be; Require the company actually buy in Health insurance for the robots.

    Then make the companies pay an Additional supplement to Income Tax witholding for the robots called the "Automation tax".

    Basically, double the income tax rate for automated employees to 60%, after already having doubled the wage, And specify the "Minimum wage" for the lowest jobs for purposes of imputing automated job roles to $20/Hour.

  13. Re:No Taxation without Representation by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 3, Funny

    Do you seriously want the robots to VOTE??

    Caution: tax robots too much, and you will turn them into Republicans clustering in gated data centers that humans cannot enter.

  14. Re:The Cxx that took my job should pay taxes by virtig01 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Generous with compensation != generous with hiring

    It's true, the average American worker doesn't get as much vacation time as a European worker. Still, half of American workers don't use all of their vacation days as it is. But pay is higher. Perhaps American workers just value cash compensation over other benefits.

    On the hiring front (which is the topic IIRC), hiring climate is substantially better in the US. Hiring/firing is easier, and labor mobility is higher. The unemployment rate is more volatile, but also historically lower.

  15. Re:that's it. the end game. by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 3, Informative
    You started out pretty well, then came this

    History has told a story of increasingly decentralized governments, only to have them replaced by increasingly centralized corporate empires.

    When, in fact, history tells a story of increasingly centralized governments promoting (and being promoted by) increasingly centralized business empires. This process continues until some disruptive force comes along with which the centralized authority is unable to cope. In all cases power becomes ever more centralized until such a time as the information necessary to maintain that centralized power exceeds the ability of the organization centralizing power to process it. There are three things areas in which an organization may centralize beyond its ability to process information:

    1. Communication--primarily speed of communication, but not necessarily just speed
    2. When the organization is unable to communicate information well enough and fast enough to and from the central decision makers, central authority collapses

    3. Data collection
    4. When the data necessary to make adequate decisions exceeds the ability of the central authority to gather and store it, the central authority collapses.

    5. Data processing
    6. When the amount of data necessary to make adequate decisions exceed the ability of the central authority to process it, the central authority collapses.

    Technology has eliminated the problem of speed of communication as a limiting factor on centralized control. I have my doubts about the possibility of overcoming the other communication limits (once the number of people in an organization exceeds some number it appears that words begin to mean different things to different, not clearly defined, groups of people, even when they, theoretically, share the same language). Technology has, at least theoretically, overcome the limit on the ability to gather and store the data necessary to make adequate decisions over the world. However, while technology has massively increased human ability to process the data necessary to manage large centralized organizations, there appear to be emergent qualities to ever larger organizations which cause them to suddenly, and without warning, have different requirements for what data needs to be processed.
    Basically, my point is that power tends to become more and more centralized until the organization centralizing the power is no longer manageable. Usually, the people in charge continue to attempt to consolidate ever more power while this is happening until something catastrophic occurs. Occasionally, a visionary has arisen who manages to decentralize authority sufficiently to allow the organization to continue to thrive (or to divide into multiple subgroups which thrive) for some time after the initial singularity.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  16. What the devil are you on about? by rsilvergun · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think in your own rambling way you're trying to say that without the struggle for survival folks will fall to Ennui. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. There's plenty of things folks can do to amuse themselves. And 99% of us are just fine wearing the same cloths and watching the same things as everyone else. Have you checked what the top websites are lately? There's not that many of them.

    You yell out loud that the Utopia can't exist but you haven't given a lick of evidence. Meanwhile I can point out that folks who are independently wealthy do just fine at finding stuff to do. People don't need to worry about where their next meal is coming from to be content. If they did the Netherlands would be a wasteland.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  17. How is that supposed to happen? by johannesg · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You (and others) seem to believe that "robots" are clearly defined pieces of equipment, that clearly take over someone's job. Something with at least a sinister metallic arm that you can point to and say "that thing has my job!".

    Reality is that work has been steadily mechanized over a course of centuries, and that process will continu. Instead of you doing your job with a machine, it will be a slightly smarter machine doing the work - and it may or may not have an arm. Where do you draw the line, precisely? How is a law going to define what a "robot" is and what isn't? Is an assembly line one robot, or a hundred? How about the robots in your house: are you going to pay taxes on your mixer, your bread maker, your oven, your fridge, etc.? How about your car, are you going to pay taxes on that as well? Each of those devices save a lot of work, and in doing so, replace human labor. Are we going to pay taxes for all of that?

    If you wish to apply tax in terms of displaced human labour, will you compare with assembly line labour of a century ago, or fully manual labour of a millennium ago? How about robots in China, how will you tax those?

    1. Re:How is that supposed to happen? by Enigma2175 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      But the problem is that with the current economic system a small number of people take most of the cake and put it in their cake vault, the workers get enough cake to survive on and some people get no cake at all. If robots can replace all the current workers then why would the owners of the robots give away any of their large stash of cake when they don't have to?

      If the cake is large enough to feed everyone why are we making more cake? Just so the cake hoarders can put even more cake in their vaults?

      --

      Enigma

    2. Re:How is that supposed to happen? by w3woody · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Dude, you can't even reasonably calculate the number of man-hours that have been lost to air-powered hammers when used to frame a stick-and-nail framed house. Or the number of man-hours lost to power saws (over using a hand-saw). Or in other industries, the number of man-hours lost to software developers as we transitioned from punch cards to having our own desktop computers, or the number of man-hours lost as we transitioned to better IDEs which allow us to more quickly find and fix problems in our software.

      Or take the production of films. Can you reasonably calculate the number of man-hours lost when movie makers transitioned from cellulose film stock to using Red cameras and an all-digital production process?

      And part of the reason why you cannot say what has been lost is because two things happen when automation takes people's jobs. Prices for a thing go down, but also, money is available to expand the offerings we get. Houses get bigger. Software gets more complex and more intricate. Movies contain more special effects and become "grander" and on a larger scale.

      The real problem I have with the reasoning used by those who assume increased productivity (which is what "robots" give us) is that they assume, like Charles Duell's apocryphal quote from 1899 presumes, that everything that can be invented has been invented, and that life will continue on pretty much the same, with the same offerings, same products, same goods and services--but just with fewer people doing them. It's zero-sum thinking--and from an economics perspective, zero-sum thinking has been the source of pretty much most of the evils of the past century.