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Americans' Shift To The Suburbs Sped Up Last Year (fivethirtyeight.com)

Jed Kolko, writing for FiveThirtyEight: The suburbanization of America marches on. Population growth in big cities slowed for the fifth-straight year in 2016, according to new census data, while population growth accelerated in the more sprawling counties that surround them. The Census Bureau on Thursday released population estimates for every one of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. I grouped those counties into six categories: urban centers of large metropolitan areas; their densely populated suburbs; their lightly populated suburbs; midsize metros; smaller metro areas; and rural counties, which are outside metro areas entirely. The fastest growth was in those lower-density suburbs. Those counties grew by 1.3 percent in 2016, the fastest rate since 2008, when the housing bust put an end to rapid homebuilding in these areas. In the South and West, growth in large-metro lower-density suburbs topped 2 percent in 2016, led by counties such as Kendall and Comal north of San Antonio; Hays near Austin; and Forsyth, north of Atlanta.

28 of 207 comments (clear)

  1. If self driving cars take off by Chrisq · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If self driving cars take off expect the suburbs to spread even further. A lot of people who wouldn't like an hour's drive each way wouldn't mind an hour reading, watching tv, and eating breakfast.

    1. Re:If self driving cars take off by Jfetjunky · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I actually believe if self-driving cars take off, drive times will go down. The programmers of the cars can do a lot to alleviate the bad behaviors people have gotten in to that just makes heavy traffic worse.

      Such as:
      -Tailgating in traffic jams, allowing no room for merging or changing lanes, causing everyone to have to slam on their brakes when someone does need to move lanes.
      -Waiting until the absolute last second to merge when lanes are reduced.
      -Essentially acting as a completely un-damped spring, speeding up and slowing down to stay exactly right behind the car in front, allowing all kinds of nasty resonances and standing waves.

    2. Re:If self driving cars take off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      -Waiting until the absolute last second to merge when lanes are reduced.

      Just FYI, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/us/why-last-second-lane-mergers-are-good-for-traffic.html?_r=0

    3. Re:If self driving cars take off by speedplane · · Score: 2

      The programmers of the cars can do a lot to alleviate the bad behaviors people have gotten in to ... Such as: ... Waiting until the absolute last second to merge when lanes are reduced.

      Although frustrating for the driver being cut, this behavior has actually been shown to reduce overall traffic by making more use of the road area.

      --
      Fast Federal Court and I.T.C. updates
  2. Centralisation == Coruuption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Cities are hotbeds of centralization enabled corruption.
    Where the pie grows so large people are willing to do anything to carve off their slice. And where you get to pay for it.

  3. Wonder why by ArchieBunker · · Score: 5, Funny

    Spend $4000 a month living in a shoe box apartment or put that into a mortgage on a decent sized house. Decisions, decisions.

    --
    Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
    1. Re:Wonder why by gnick · · Score: 5, Interesting

      That's hardly the entirety of the decision. Aside from the pros/cons of renting vs buying, if that apartment is 30 minutes closer to work, you just saved 250 hours a year of your personal time. What's that worth?

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    2. Re:Wonder why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      That's hardly the entirety of the decision. Aside from the pros/cons of renting vs buying, if that apartment is 30 minutes closer to work, you just saved 250 hours a year of your personal time. What's that worth?

      It's not worth never getting to be loud, it's not worth never getting to have a real pet. It's not worth never having a second vehicle. It's not worth never seeing grass. Humans haven't evolved to live in hives.

    3. Re:Wonder why by cayenne8 · · Score: 2

      That's hardly the entirety of the decision. Aside from the pros/cons of renting vs buying, if that apartment is 30 minutes closer to work, you just saved 250 hours a year of your personal time. What's that worth?

      Well, of course there are trade-offs for everything.

      I personally cannot STAND sharing walls with people.

      I have a pretty high end sound system, and I like to crank it up from time to time for music or maybe just watching the Flintstones at concert volume....without having to worry about people complaining.

      And too...many of us enjoy having a bit of room in our own yards to stretch out..have a nice patio. I love to grill on my Big Green egg....or fire up my smoker and do BBQ (slow and low for up to about 18 hours or so).

      I might want to fire up the big pot outside and have a crawfish boil with friends.

      You can't keep a stack of smoking wood, that many cookers or even often use a grill with real fire on an apartment balcony.

      I also like to have my own garage or carport for my car(s).

      Sure there are trade-offs between living in the greater metropolitan/urban areas, you have to decide about your lifestyle and what suits it best.

      Where I live, people engage in a LOT of the things I just mentioned, I won't even go into the number of people that have boats at their houses they take out quite often for fishing, skiing, etc. You can't do that stuff readily in an urban setting.

      I have friends that like to be even more out, almost rural...that's not me, but I do like to stretch my arms out a bit in my own house and yard.

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    4. Re:Wonder why by clodney · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I live in the downtown area of a large city. We have two parking spaces, a dog, and grass for her to run around on. I am able to be as loud as I want to be (YMMV), mostly because new buildings are much better at soundproofing than was true even 20 years ago.

      Our condo is smaller than our suburban house was, but plenty large enough for the two of us, and bigger than the median square footage of a house when I was a kid.

      And we pay more than I did in the burbs, but we have baseball, football and basketball stadiums within walking distance, as well as theaters and easily 2 dozen restaurants. Expand my range to what I can reach for the minimum Uber fare or a bike share, and I have easy access to all of the downtown area.

      It's a personal decision, but it is not nearly as bleak a life as you paint it.

    5. Re:Wonder why by thegarbz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Spend $4000 a month living in a shoe box apartment or put that into a mortgage on a decent sized house. Decisions, decisions.

      Okay so you have identified one criteria, now:

      Spend $4000 to live in an apartment, or spend $4000 on having to spend saturday mowing the lawn, watering the grass, washing up outside.
      Spend $4000 to live in walking distance from all the action or 5min away with the metro or spend $4000 on being stuck out in the burbs battling traffic to get to work, having to drive somewhere to do something basic like get a meal.
      Spend $4000 for a nice comfortable sized living space, or spend $4000 for a massive multi bedroom house that accumulates a shitload of dust, is hard to keep clean, causes high costs for heating, has a roof that will need replacing, etc.

      I own 2 places. I rent out my house in the burbs and live in an inner city apartment. Or as my colleague put it: "People live in cities, people only work or sleep in suburbs."

    6. Re:Wonder why by chipschap · · Score: 2

      Sure there are trade-offs between living in the greater metropolitan/urban areas, you have to decide about your lifestyle and what suits it best.

      This is precisely the point. It's a decision made up of various factors and the answers depend upon the circumstances and desires of the individuals involved.

      I've lived both styles (urban and suburban). They both have advantages and disadvantages. Right now, as a retiree, urban suits me because we don't need or want a large footprint and we don't want to be driving into town for most of the things that we need and want to do. When we had a houseful of kids, it was a different equation with different variables.

    7. Re:Wonder why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      I live in a condo which is an easy bus hop to downtown. Here is why I wouldn't recommend it:

      1: HOAs. Even with a decent HOA, you are still spending hundreds of dollars of month, with the HOA assessment being raised 10% every year for nothing. Of course, there are the neighbors with no life just looking for any small violation to call in.

      2: You never know what the hell is lurking outside when going to your vehicle. Nothing like dealing with people skulking around, flipping car door handles, in hopes of landing the big one.

      3: You really can't do much. Want to raise a garden, have a few chickens for some eggs? Good luck.

      4: Way too dense. Small things can turn into big pissing contests.

      5: Bums. Easy bus line means that you may find winos passed out in your doorway after he flicked a few cig butts in your mail slot. Or he might be trying to be aggressive and panhandle.

      6: Drunken parties. Some dipshit rents their place to weekend guests via a short term rental service, and guess what. All parking winds up taken, and the police start becoming common visitors due to noise and drunken incidents that involve broken glass and mutual combat.

      7: Crime. Other than NYC, US cities really don't do much for this element. If you want to raise kids safely, you take them to the suburbs, where there are playgrounds, pools, and other kid-friendly amenities.

      8: Sirens and emergency vehicles, late at night.

      Heck with that stuff. It is nice to have a place where I can turn on a stereo without worrying about the neighbors calling the police, not have to deal with a passed out wino just to get out the front door (not to mention the lingering smell), and be able to collect eggs from a chicken coup without people having a fit. It also is nice to have a safe place to raise kids, which US cities are not.

    8. Re:Wonder why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Not everyone likes urban life. I've been to plenty of cities all over the world, but I'm always glad to be back home in a place where you can see the stars at night and the only noise to complain about when you're trying to sleep is the howling of coyotes (though they can get quite annoying). I like being able to go for a walk in the woods just by stepping outside or just watch the trees swaying in a storm. It's relaxing and peaceful in a way you just can't get in a city. So what if I have to drive 5-10 minutes to get to the nearest major shopping area with ample parking and every store I could possibly need? If I want a city, I have three of them less than half an hour away. But I usually prefer to avoid them whenever possible.

    9. Re:Wonder why by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2

      I have a very rural house, nearest neighbor is 1km away. I get most everything from amazon 2 day delivery, grow my own food, off grid utilities except internet have a very nice house, dogs, various farm animals. And if I were really bored, I could blow up a stick of dynamite inside an old tree and nobody would complain. But I have enough space for my own shops (wood, metal, mechanical, art studio), rvs, boats and planes. And it all cost less than three years of salary at minimum wage.

    10. Re:Wonder why by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Cities are best for people who pay for their entertainment. Rural is best for people who make their own entertainment.

    11. Re:Wonder why by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

      It's not worth never getting to be loud, it's not worth never getting to have a real pet.

      Sounds good to me, because the other side of the coin is that your neighbors have to put up with your noise and your stupid dog barking its head off at all hours of the day and night. I've lived in suburbs and this is exactly how it was.

    12. Re:Wonder why by Solandri · · Score: 2

      I've lived in a couple nice areas like that inside cities. I'm also in the 80th percentile income bracket.

      What's housing in the city like for people in the 50th percentile income bracket? For the typical 50th percentile person. Not the one who got lucky and snagged a rent-controlled apartment whose previous 90 year old tenant died of a heart attack and they happened to know her grand-niece so heard about the apartment being available before it was advertised. Comparisons should be made based on averages, not on extremes.

  4. High Speed Rail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Suburbanization isn't a problem. If we planned cities properly we could serve city centers with high speed rail to secondary cities (suburbs, exurbs) and ease the urban housing crunch. Of course this would require taxation, debt, eminent domain, and operating at a loss for decades, which is not popular with short term thinkers, despite the fact that rail infrastructure has a lifespan measured in centuries.

    1. Re:High Speed Rail by tomhath · · Score: 2

      Big urban centers are a leftover from a time when transportation and communication moved at the speed of trotting horses.

  5. Re:Exactly by cayenne8 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I don't know why you are downmodded troll. The demographic trend has been going on for this reason for over 50 years. Most Americans want to avoid a life of ignorance, violence, and fear.

    Well, in general, you do see less violence in the suburbs than the densely populated urban areas, and the school systems are often much better away from the inner cities.

    You can't blame people for wanting to try to raise their families in a much healthier environment.

    --
    Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
  6. Work dynamics by DutchSter · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's no longer about where the jobs are. For a lot of people the office is wherever the worker happens to be. I work for major corporation but do so from home full time. I only have to physically visit a company facility a few times a year.

    We just got back from three weeks in Arizona to catch spring ball, but it only cost me about a week of vacation, mostly taken an hour at a time. By staying on Eastern time and taking my laptop and Skype headset I could start my day at 4:30 AM and be done by noon. That left the whole afternoon to catch a game and do whatever. As long as I got to bed by 9:30 or so it was very sustainable. Most of my co-workers had no idea where I was because it didn't matter.

  7. Totally worth it by DeplorableCodeMonkey · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Adding an extra 40min round trip to an existing 30min round trip dropped our mortgage principle over 33%. This is incredibly important when you look at interest rates. 5% was standard when bought, and probably will be again soon if it isn't. Right now it's apparently 4%. Let's say you finance $360k. Over the life time of a 30 year mortgage, that is $208k of interest and you only get a fraction of that back in deductions. So really, spending a lot more to be close to a city is sending trashbags full of cash to the banks.

    1. Re:Totally worth it by Gorobei · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I really don't understand posters who can understand an amortization schedule, even understand how rates change over time, and then just add dollar numbers (e.g. a dollar today plus and a dollar payable in 30 years) to make a big, bad number that is supposed to make sense.

  8. No jobs, sit in traffic all day by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

    Only fools move to the suburbs.

    My walk to work is around 40 minutes, or I get there in 20 on transit. Or I can bike it in 15 minutes.

    In the suburbs around Seattle it's 1.5 to 3 hours. Sometimes it's 4 hours.

    Choose wisely.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  9. This is not a sign of demand for suburban life by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is a sign of a shortage of higher density living in the urban core. There are multiple reasons for that, the power of the NIMBY lobby being one of them. But for the demographic of young single professionals at the early stages of their careers, vibrant and compact walkable neighborhoods are so much in demand that rents are being driven sky high and lower income people are being displaced to the suburbs where they are either saddled with longer commutes of forced to find jobs on the periphery.

    Suburbs are great for when you get a little older and want to raise a family, but in the meantime the city is where it's at.

    --
    Drill baby drill - on Mars
  10. Re:Exactly by amiga3D · · Score: 2

    I'm moving out to the sticks. Where my doublewide is on 34 acres you can't see the fucking neighbors.

  11. Re:Exactly by Ichijo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Did you know that your children are more likely to die violently in a rural area than in the city? And people in rural areas are also more likely to die from heart disease and cancer, among other diseases and injuries.

    A suburb is a cross between an urban and a rural area, so it isn't clear at all that a suburb is a "much healthier environment" than a city.

    --
    Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.