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'Moore's Law' For Carbon Would Defeat Global Warming (technologyreview.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from MIT Technology Review: A streamlined set of goals for reducing carbon emissions could simplify the way nations approach the quest to reduce human impact on the planet. A group of European researchers have a refreshingly straightforward solution that they call a carbon law -- or, as the Guardian has coined it, a "Moore's law for carbon." The overarching goal is simple: globally, we must halve carbon dioxide emissions every decade. That's essentially it. The rule would ideally be applied "to all sectors and countries at all scales," and would encourage "bold action in the short term." Dramatic changes would naturally have to occur as a result -- from quick wins like carbon taxes and energy efficiency regulations, to longer-term policies like phasing out combustion-engine cars and carbon-neutral building regulations. If policy makers followed the carbon law, adoption of renewables would continue its current pace of doubling energy production every 5.5 years, and carbon dioxide sequestration technologies would need to ramp up in order for the the planet to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of the century, say the researchers. Along the way, coal use would end as soon as 2030 and oil use by 2040. There are, clearly, issues with the idea, not least being the prospect of convincing every nation to commit to such a vision. The very simplicity that makes the idea compelling can also be used as a point of criticism: Can such a basic rule ever hope to define practical ideas as to how to change the world's energy production and consumption? The study has been published in the journal Science.

13 of 269 comments (clear)

  1. It Doesn't Work That Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Moores law for transistors works with roughly the same amount of investment each year. This doesn't work in many other areas. You can't double clean energy production every 5 years without doubling the investment.

  2. Good grief by SlaveToTheGrind · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It really doesn't take much to get published in Science these days, does it?

  3. great insight! by ooloorie · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The overarching goal is simple: globally, we must halve carbon dioxide emissions every decade. That's essentially it.

    Great! While you're at it, why don't you also legislate other simple overaching goals, like halving the murder rate every decade, doubling economic output every decade, doubling IQs every decade, and halving deaths from cancer every decade? Heck, go all the way and double life expectancy every decade too! You can probably hire some of the central planners of the former USSR to make that happen, they have nearly half a century of experience in how to set goals like that and achieve them.

    The rule would ideally be applied "to all sectors and countries at all scales," and would encourage "bold action in the short term."

    If by "bold action", you mean government corruption, followed by economic collapse and hunting rats for food, and finally bloody revolutions, that is certainly true.

    1. Re:great insight! by iggymanz · · Score: 1, Insightful

      You won't need to worry about the murder rate with the starvation, disease and poverty this carbon halving would cause.

  4. Moores Law by oldgraybeard · · Score: 3, Insightful

    i don't think these individuals understand what Moore's law is about!
    "quick wins like carbon taxes and energy efficiency regulations"
    Good Grief!! Shakes Head ;)

  5. Beyond idiotic by argStyopa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Moore's Law wasn't a goal someone set and then did.

    It was merely an observation of a pace of technical advance.

    The idea that you would propose something like this, as if the proposal itself was actually accomplishing something, is asinine.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:Beyond idiotic by erice · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Moore's Law wasn't a goal someone set and then did.

      It was merely an observation of a pace of technical advance.

      That's not exactly true. Moore's Law started as an observation but it soon became an expectation: a required pace of advancement that every fab (IDM for foundry) had to match if they wanted to remain competitive. Over time, the amount of investment required to meet the target increased, and the number of competitors dwindled. Only four remain today in general logic. The economics and the definitions for advanced nodes have become dubious.

      The idea that you would propose something like this, as if the proposal itself was actually accomplishing something, is asinine.

      But your conclusion is spot on. Even when keeping Moore's Law going became difficult and not just a natural progression, there was still a lot of inertia and economic imperative behind it. Research enabled innovations which enabled products which became tools that enabled new research, etc.

      By contrast, there is no pipeline of innovation for reducing carbon emissions. There is a lot of work going but there is little connecting it all. A better wind turbine might not do much to help build the wind turbine after that much less better solar cells or biofuels. There is no reason to expect that progress will follow any particular pace or even be consistent.

  6. MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Virtually all of the posts critical of global warming are now at -1. These views are being censored, despite raising very credible objections. This is incredibly biased and is clearly a strong effort to censor the truth. Notice that nobody ever addresses the objections, because it's simply not possible for the AGW supporters to do so.

    1. Re:MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by ChrisMaple · · Score: 4, Insightful

      See also: people of all races are the same, men are the same as women, taxation doesn't hurt business, Karl Marx was a good person.
      Two can play that game.

      Invalid and dishonest generalizations serve no good purpose.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    2. Re: MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by RazorSharp · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Posts criticizing global warming are downvoted because this is a site for science geeks. A post criticizing natural selection will also get downvoted. Just because there isn't a (-1 dumb) option doesn't mean mods won't act like there is.

      --
      "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
  7. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by firewrought · · Score: 5, Insightful

    An evangelist speaks from emotional fervor based on tradition. A climatologist speaks from disciplined scientific enquiry. Tell me, are you being paid to shitpost, or do you do it out of sheer paranoia?

    --
    -1, Too Many Layers Of Abstraction
  8. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'd rather eat meat than have 10 times the current population.

  9. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by religionofpeas · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Bullshit. Modern diseases are not caused by foods that have been eaten for hundreds of thousands of years. They've been caused by modern processed crap such as sugar, white flour and industrial vegetable oils.

    As far as the environment is concerned, meat production is only a small problem.