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'Moore's Law' For Carbon Would Defeat Global Warming (technologyreview.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from MIT Technology Review: A streamlined set of goals for reducing carbon emissions could simplify the way nations approach the quest to reduce human impact on the planet. A group of European researchers have a refreshingly straightforward solution that they call a carbon law -- or, as the Guardian has coined it, a "Moore's law for carbon." The overarching goal is simple: globally, we must halve carbon dioxide emissions every decade. That's essentially it. The rule would ideally be applied "to all sectors and countries at all scales," and would encourage "bold action in the short term." Dramatic changes would naturally have to occur as a result -- from quick wins like carbon taxes and energy efficiency regulations, to longer-term policies like phasing out combustion-engine cars and carbon-neutral building regulations. If policy makers followed the carbon law, adoption of renewables would continue its current pace of doubling energy production every 5.5 years, and carbon dioxide sequestration technologies would need to ramp up in order for the the planet to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of the century, say the researchers. Along the way, coal use would end as soon as 2030 and oil use by 2040. There are, clearly, issues with the idea, not least being the prospect of convincing every nation to commit to such a vision. The very simplicity that makes the idea compelling can also be used as a point of criticism: Can such a basic rule ever hope to define practical ideas as to how to change the world's energy production and consumption? The study has been published in the journal Science.

28 of 269 comments (clear)

  1. It Doesn't Work That Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Moores law for transistors works with roughly the same amount of investment each year. This doesn't work in many other areas. You can't double clean energy production every 5 years without doubling the investment.

    1. Re:It Doesn't Work That Way by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Lets apply Moore's law to all our problems.

    2. Re:It Doesn't Work That Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Great idea! Half the wars every 10 years means world peace by the end of the century!

    3. Re: It Doesn't Work That Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Half the Moore's laws every year!

    4. Re: It Doesn't Work That Way by blindseer · · Score: 2

      Do you really need someone to explain to you the difference between a tiny submarine reactor versus a power plant?

      No, but you did bring something to mind. If we can build a small nuclear reactor in that time, then we can build ten in that time. We can build thousands in that time. This is the concept behind the small modular reactor. Once designed and the patterns laid out for construction they can be mass produced.

      Something on the scale of 10MW to 100MW can fit on a train or barge. Build them in a factory, ship them to the power plant site, hook them up to a generator, and off you go. There is no reason we cannot do this. Big or small doesn't matter. The only reason we've been building these massive gigawatt scale reactors is because the regulations are such that only building them this big makes economic sense.

      If it's so easy to build a 10MW reactor compared to a 1000MW reactor then just build 100 of those 10MW reactors instead.

      The point is we know how to solve this problem. The only thing holding this back right now is the regulation on nuclear power, basically the powers that be aren't properly motivated to issue licenses for these reactors and so none get built. There is no physical reason we cannot be building nuclear reactors on a mass scale, and do so safely and economically. We've simply told ourselves it cannot be done and so it cannot be done. Once we tell ourselves it can be done then it will happen.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  2. Good grief by SlaveToTheGrind · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It really doesn't take much to get published in Science these days, does it?

  3. Even easier: by waltlaw · · Score: 2, Funny

    Pass a law giving everyone a magic wand.

  4. Law mandated technology by JWW · · Score: 2

    I love how political types think that we just need to mandate using less power, oh and this time at ever increasing rates because that worked for a few decades for transistors.

    Ironically, computers are one of the least regulated industries on the planet.

    If you want to see what mandated goals do, check out your health insurance bill, the government has been regulating that industry for 40 years.

    1. Re:Law mandated technology by _merlin · · Score: 2

      If you could take an ancient Athenian and bring them to the present, they wouldn't recognise our "democracy" as being the same thing as theirs at all. They restricted the vote to males over the age of 30 with military service (no concept of universal suffrage), they had direct democracy (not election of representatives), and they also had ostracism as a disincentive for abuse of power. It's also worth pointing out that ancient Athens was far more stable under tyranny than democracy.

  5. what's the next plan? by khallow · · Score: 2

    The overarching goal is simple: globally, we must halve carbon dioxide emissions every decade.

    And if we don't do that, say because developing world countries have better things to do than turn their economies upside down for First World causes? What's plan B? Sooner or later we're going to have to deal with the real world strategy of adaptation not the imaginary ones of radical greenhouse gases emission reduction.

    1. Re: what's the next plan? by mspohr · · Score: 2

      India and China are leading the world in renewable energy adoption.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
  6. Moores Law by oldgraybeard · · Score: 3, Insightful

    i don't think these individuals understand what Moore's law is about!
    "quick wins like carbon taxes and energy efficiency regulations"
    Good Grief!! Shakes Head ;)

    1. Re: Moores Law by pD-brane · · Score: 2

      The authors of the paper don't mention Moore's law. It is one individual who compares this with Moore's law: a journalist. This is just usual bad journalism, combined with typical jumping to conclusions by Slashdotters who never seem to read the paper referred to. Come on, be happy that at least some articles here refer to peer reviewed papers that are often of a much higher quality than most other material here, so why not read it!

  7. Beyond idiotic by argStyopa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Moore's Law wasn't a goal someone set and then did.

    It was merely an observation of a pace of technical advance.

    The idea that you would propose something like this, as if the proposal itself was actually accomplishing something, is asinine.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:Beyond idiotic by TooManyNames · · Score: 2

      But I really want the proposal in and of itself to accomplish something... like, really bad. Why oh why won't reality just play along?!

      --
      "Is not a sentence" is not a sentence. Well damn.
    2. Re:Beyond idiotic by erice · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Moore's Law wasn't a goal someone set and then did.

      It was merely an observation of a pace of technical advance.

      That's not exactly true. Moore's Law started as an observation but it soon became an expectation: a required pace of advancement that every fab (IDM for foundry) had to match if they wanted to remain competitive. Over time, the amount of investment required to meet the target increased, and the number of competitors dwindled. Only four remain today in general logic. The economics and the definitions for advanced nodes have become dubious.

      The idea that you would propose something like this, as if the proposal itself was actually accomplishing something, is asinine.

      But your conclusion is spot on. Even when keeping Moore's Law going became difficult and not just a natural progression, there was still a lot of inertia and economic imperative behind it. Research enabled innovations which enabled products which became tools that enabled new research, etc.

      By contrast, there is no pipeline of innovation for reducing carbon emissions. There is a lot of work going but there is little connecting it all. A better wind turbine might not do much to help build the wind turbine after that much less better solar cells or biofuels. There is no reason to expect that progress will follow any particular pace or even be consistent.

  8. Re:MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by ChrisMaple · · Score: 4, Insightful

    See also: people of all races are the same, men are the same as women, taxation doesn't hurt business, Karl Marx was a good person.
    Two can play that game.

    Invalid and dishonest generalizations serve no good purpose.

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  9. Re:MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

    These views are being censored

    Lies! The users who don't read at that threshold are simply filtering the views themselves, but they are still there.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  10. Re: MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by RazorSharp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Posts criticizing global warming are downvoted because this is a site for science geeks. A post criticizing natural selection will also get downvoted. Just because there isn't a (-1 dumb) option doesn't mean mods won't act like there is.

    --
    "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
  11. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by firewrought · · Score: 5, Insightful

    An evangelist speaks from emotional fervor based on tradition. A climatologist speaks from disciplined scientific enquiry. Tell me, are you being paid to shitpost, or do you do it out of sheer paranoia?

    --
    -1, Too Many Layers Of Abstraction
  12. Re:No, in reverse by dwywit · · Score: 4, Informative

    It's more like "halve the emissions", not "halve the energy". See, it's about trying to generate electricity for us to use, while reducing the byproducts that are bad for the environment.

    Glad I could clear that up for you, and thanks for your contribution to the debate.

    --
    They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
  13. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by fredrated · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The world could currently support 10 times the current population if we stopped eating meat.

    Wouldn't that be wonderful.

  14. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'd rather eat meat than have 10 times the current population.

  15. Re:MODERATORS ARE CENSORING POSTS by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    What, so Karl Marx was a bad person? As opposed to whom? And taxation hurts business about as much as water kills you. It's all about the dose.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  16. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by religionofpeas · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Bullshit. Modern diseases are not caused by foods that have been eaten for hundreds of thousands of years. They've been caused by modern processed crap such as sugar, white flour and industrial vegetable oils.

    As far as the environment is concerned, meat production is only a small problem.

  17. Re:The climevangelists are busy today by I75BJC · · Score: 3

    "We have 7+ Billion people on a planet that can support 3 Billion." Obviously, the planet can support 7+ billion people. It's nonsense/hyperbole/fuzzy thinking like this that really hurts your position and negates any truths and/or facts that you have to contribute. IMHO

  18. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by russotto · · Score: 4, Funny

    Yeah, which would you rather have, a nice juicy steak or 10 times the number of neighbors?

  19. Re: The climevangelists are busy today by jdavidb · · Score: 2

    Bullshit. Modern diseases are not caused by foods that have been eaten for hundreds of thousands of years. They've been caused by modern processed crap such as sugar, white flour and industrial vegetable oils.

    A lot of them have been caused by the fact that without modern medicine, we wouldn't survive long enough to experience them.