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88% Of Medical 'Second Opinions' Give A Different Diagnosis - And So Do Some AI (mayoclinic.org)
First, "A new study finds that nearly 9 in 10 people who go for a second opinion after seeing a doctor are likely to leave with a refined or new diagnosis from what they were first told," according to an article shared by Slashdot reader schwit1:
Researchers at the Mayo Clinic examined 286 patient records of individuals who had decided to consult a second opinion, hoping to determine whether being referred to a second specialist impacted one's likelihood of receiving an accurate diagnosis. The study, conducted using records of patients referred to the Mayo Clinic's General Internal Medicine Division over a two-year period, ultimately found that when consulting a second opinion, the physician only confirmed the original diagnosis 12 percent of the time. Among those with updated diagnoses, 66% received a refined or redefined diagnosis, while 21% were diagnosed with something completely different than what their first physician concluded.
But in a related story, Slashdot reader sciencehabit writes that four machine-learning algorithms all performed better than currently-used algorithm of the American College of Cardiology, according to newly-published research, which concludes that "machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others."
"I can't stress enough how important it is," one Stanford vascular surgeon told Science magazine, "and how much I really hope that doctors start to embrace the use of artificial intelligence to assist us in care of patients."
But in a related story, Slashdot reader sciencehabit writes that four machine-learning algorithms all performed better than currently-used algorithm of the American College of Cardiology, according to newly-published research, which concludes that "machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others."
"I can't stress enough how important it is," one Stanford vascular surgeon told Science magazine, "and how much I really hope that doctors start to embrace the use of artificial intelligence to assist us in care of patients."
I would expect that many people who ask for a second opinion have a reason to ask for a second opinion: in fact, the article even mentions the situation where the first doctor recommended they do so. What would be more telling would be if they did a large study and gave EVERYONE second opinions, and then told us how many differed.
This smells like another case of "lies, damned lies, and statistics", which is designed to make the Mayo Clinic look good.
So matters are even worse than the articles suggest.
Not necessarily. The study is an example of "selection bias". They only looked at cases where the patient requested a 2nd opinion. So these were cases where the patient already had a reason to question the 1st opinion. It is unlikely that the error (or "different diagnosis") rate would be as high for other cases.
Before I go to a doctor, or take a family member, I do some online research to inform myself. If the doctor's diagnosis is significantly different from what I concluded, I ask for an explanation. If the doctor's "explanation" is that he is the expert and I should just trust him, then that usually means he is full of crap and doesn't know what he is doing.