Slashdot Mirror


The Cheap Energy Revolution Is Here, and Coal Won't Cut It (bloomberg.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: Wind and solar are about to become unstoppable, natural gas and oil production are approaching their peak, and electric cars and batteries for the grid are waiting to take over. This is the world Donald Trump inherited as U.S. president. And yet his energy plan is to cut regulations to resuscitate the one sector that's never coming back: coal. Clean energy installations broke new records worldwide in 2016, and wind and solar are seeing twice as much funding as fossil fuels, according to new data released Tuesday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). That's largely because prices continue to fall. Solar power, for the first time, is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity in the world. But with Trump's deregulations plans, what "we're going to see is the age of plenty -- on steroids," BNEF founder Michael Liebreich said. "That's good news economically, except there's one fly in the ointment, and that's climate."

24 of 478 comments (clear)

  1. This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Coal is dead. Helping coal MINERS makes sense, but trying to resurrect something that is dying because of market forces (and good riddance) is the most retarded incarnation of "conservatism" since trickle down economics.

    1. Re:This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      We have given them medical coverage for their black lung disease through the ACA (in the past coal industry provided doctors had to make the diagnosis, and surprisingly nobody had black lung disease, now they are being recognized and treated) and they voted for a candidate who promised to kill the ACA

      We have offered them job retraining and a future in solar energy and they voted for a candidate who promised to keep sending them underground to die by promising further deregulation to coal mine owners who regularly turn off methane detectors

      Give 'em what they want, and when they get tired of being abused, send them back down because they have already rejected our offers

      If I seem cold, it is because all of my ancestors were coal miners and WE figured this out decades ago.

    2. Re:This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Coal is dead.

      Sure. Even if Trump rolls back some regs, no one is going to build a new coal plant with a 50-60 year lifetime. The regs will come roaring back in 2020 or 2024, along with new carbon taxes. The worst that will happen is that a few old dirty coal plants may delay retirement.

      Helping coal MINERS makes sense

      That depends on the type of "help". Handouts that encourage people to put off hard choices often do more harm than good. Development funds for Appalachia have traditionally been a bottomless pit of waste. There are good reasons that nothing other than resource extraction has been successful there. Transportation is difficult on mountain roads, and the people are poorly educated, close-minded, and unambitious.

      By far the best way to help these people is to assist them in MOVING SOMEWHERE ELSE.

      Disclaimer: I was born and raised in Eastern Tennessee. I have many relatives there, and all of them are doing poorly. I also have many friends and relatives that, like me, moved away, and they are doing much better.

    3. Re:This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Informative

      The problem is that even if coal is completely deregulated, it's not miners who are going to be doing the extraction. The future of mining is automated. At best this will just give the coal barons a few more years of profit and do dick for the miners.

      But it's not even going to be that good. Natural gas is killing coal, so there isn't even going to be a coal industry by the time renewables dominate. This is a classic "buggy whip" problem, in that there ain't gonna be no more horse-drawn carriages, so there ain't gonna be no more buggy whips. Whatever you think of Clinton, she was telling the miners the truth, their jobs are quickly becoming obsolete.

      And the same goes for lots of other industries. Manufacturing is rapidly automating, so that even mass repatriation of US industrial capacity is not going to deliver the same level of employment that was there even thirty years ago. There's nothing the US government can do about it, short of outlawing automation and renewables, which would be sheer madness.

      Christ, no less than Rick Perry himself has admitted the US needs to stay in the Paris Accord. Even the most pro-oil of pro-oil politicians know full well the jig is up. Oil isn't coming back, and as the price falls away it's impact on the economy diminishes. Coal was the first because it's the most expensive and most obviously harmful, but it applies to all the fossil fuels.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    4. Re:This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by whoever57 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Warning: heartless comment coming:

      Perhaps the people in those regions should not have voted for politicians who hollowed out the education system, blocked infrastructure development and generally acted in ways that benefited nobody except coal mine owners.

      It's been obvious for a generation that coal was coming to the end of its life. Perhaps they should have looked forward instead of attempting to emulate King Canute.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    5. Re:This is retarded conservatism to help 'coal' by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 4, Funny

      Did you know they still make buggy whips? No joke. But while everyone on the road used to need a buggy whip, their demand is now greatly diminished.

      Because they're ineffective. Have you ever tried whipping a buggy? Has no effect; they just sit there and take it.

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
  2. Trump knows there's no future in coal by Zontar_Thing_From_Ve · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Trump knows there is no future in coal and it's not coming back. He's basically keeping a campaign promise. People in coal mining country were told by Hillary Clinton what they didn't want to hear, namely that there was no future in coal and, in a much quieter voice that apparently nobody heard, that they'd supposedly be retrained for new jobs. Trump simply told coal miners that their problems were somebody else's fault and he would remove restrictions on coal. In the short term it will probably save enough jobs for the over 50 crowd that they can retire from the mines, but there's no future for younger people in the field and Trump knows it. He's not going to say it out loud as the coal miners prefer to live in the delusion that they can turn back the clock here and they voted Republican and he wants their votes in the future, but I'm sure he knows it.

    1. Re:Trump knows there's no future in coal by SuricouRaven · · Score: 5, Interesting

      We've a similar thing here in Europe with the fishing industry. Fish stocks are dangerously low, and the EU has reacted by imposing strict quotas - though ones which ecologists keep saying are still not strict enough. This has incurred much anger from the fishing industry, because it's not just an occupation for them - it's a way of life, going back generations, and now they are being driven out of business by what they see as pointless regulations imposed upon them by distant politicians in Brussels.

      They don't seem able to accept that there is a good reason for restricting fishing.

  3. Coal is the single WORST way to get energy by gurps_npc · · Score: 5, Informative

    1) It produces more radioactivity than all other energy sources, including Nuclear power. (A small percentage of coal is thorium, which settles around wherever you burn the coal.)

    2) It takes more work to mine it than all other sources (including uranium - though it does require less processing).

    3) It takes more work to ship it from it's source to the plant than all other energy types.

    4) It produces more carbon pollution than all other sources. Coal is basically pure carbon plus some nasty impurities. Oil and gas are Carbon + Hydrogen + some other stuff. Carbon burns to Carbon Dioxide (or worse, monoxide). Hydrogen burns nice and clean, turning into water.

    5) Coal contains trace amounts of mercury, which when burned makes it's way into the atmosphere, then rains down into the oceans. Nasty stuff. No other energy source has this problem.

    6) Coal mining has some nasty problems, including black lung disease and sometimes starts underground fires we literally can NOT put out.

    No sane person mines coal for energy if they have any other energy source. All others are safer and better. Burning oil, gas, or wood are all better. Nuclear is better. Tidal, wind, solar, hydro, are all better.

    Coal mining should only be used after you have burned all your forests up, mined all your uraninum, pumped all your natural gas and oil, and the sun has gone out.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  4. Coal is a campaign punchline by Weaselmancer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Coal isn't coming back. It's something that sounded good to Trump's fans on the campaign trail, that's all. The coal industry employs fewer people than freaking Arby's. Fixing the coal industry would be like using a teaspoon to bail out a sinking Titanic. Middle America has far bigger problems that the dwindling coal industry.

    Only reason why it's an issue at all is because it sounded good on the campaign trail for Trump's supporters. It's dog whistle politics, not an actual energy plan. To everyone else it sounds like Trump is saying "Coal is the future and will meet our energy needs cheaply and effectively!" Which it absolutely won't. But to his fans, it sounds like this: "Rust belt and former mining communities will get their jobs back and be prosperous again!" Sadly, it doesn't actually mean that either. Deregulate all you want, wind and solar are still going to be cheaper.

    I feel bad for those folks in coal country counting on this guy to fix things for them. He isn't going to. He isn't able to. It'll be pretty bitter when they realize that.

    --
    Weaselmancer
    rediculous.
  5. Re:Compact, Transportable Energy by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your understanding of these things seems to be rooted in the 1970s. What you said used to be true, back then - but it's not today. The technology is improving rapidly, as is our ability to store and distribute that energy.

    It's like the old notions about electric cars. All the prototype ones from 20 years ago were terrible on so many levels, in terms of power, range, recharge time, etc, not to mention cost. But as we're seeing now, that's changing radically. Go look at Tesla for instance. We may not yet be at the day where electric is 100% better in all areas, but it's now only a matter of when, not if.

  6. Here in West Virginia.... by cavis · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The governor is a billionaire coal barron, and he's doing his best to revive coal as well. One major problem is that natural gas has taken over and the coal market just isn't there now. Aside from that, the cost to mine coal is way higher than it is for natural gas. To mine coal, you have to hire hundreds of miners, buy or lease really expensive equipment, dig a hole a couple of miles into the ground, then transport the product via truck or rail car to the buyer. To get natural gas, you drill a hole in the ground, insert a pipe, and connect it to other pipes.

    Then, you have to factor in foreign competition. I used to work in IT for a coal company at the beginning of my career (mid '90s), and in spite of doing $160 million in business per year, we went bankrupt. It was cheaper then to mine coal in China and ship it to our local power plants than it was to mine it locally. I'm not sure that the coal market it to that point yet, but I expect to return to those days. Coal truck drivers here were making over $70k per year while their foreign counterparts were doing that for a fraction of the money.

    Ironically, my office is in what used to be the headquarters for Columbia Gas Transmission in Charleston, WV, but that was bought out last year by TransCanada and several people were laid off. However, I don't work in the gas industry.

  7. Re:If the headline is true... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Because a dying industry that is dumping toxic crud into creeks and rivers is still an industry that is dumping toxic crud into creeks and rivers?

    Because just because something is in the process of dying doesn't mean it is harmless... quite the opposite usually...

  8. Re:prediction... more good comments... not by OrangeTide · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm running out of armchairs to sit in while I solve all the world's problems!

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  9. Re:Total regulatory impact 2-3 percent by Layzej · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Coal accounts for over 40% of electric generation in the US

    That was once true, but no longer is . "Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U.S. electricity in 2016." - https://www.eia.gov/electricit... . If you look at this graph you can see that coal has been replaced by natural gas and non-hydro renewables. Since the renewables are only getting cheaper as the technology improves, there is no reason to suspect that their trend will not continue to accelerate upwards.

  10. Re:Fossil fuels not anywhere near depleted by OrangeTide · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There is so much more coal, natural gas and oil for us to mine. Just because it's there doesn't mean we should mine it. Technology has made us too good at surveying and finding coal and oil fields. If we wait until we run out before we stop, we have perhaps hundreds of years to go. And there are going to be dire consequences, if we try to continue mining and burning coal and oil in large amounts for that long.
    Now is the time to wrap up our use of some of these old energy sources and to invest in new energy sources. There are lots of proven options, and the technology around them keeps getting cheaper. It will be engineers and tech companies that are making the big bucks in the energy industry and not mine operators. (coal miners never made big bucks, I would say they got the shaft but that's an insensitive pun)

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  11. Re:So you want a tax on wind and solar. by dj245 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You're missing the point of a carbon tax. The tax is meant to speed the end of fossil fuel use. And really it's natural gas that killed coal, so you're going after the wrong target.

    The current market forces point to a direction of renewables, natural gas, and whatever nuclear remains operational (with no new nuclear plants). That's not a bad plan for the US for right now. However, natural gas in the US is currently 1/3 to 1/4 the cost of any other natural gas in the world. It is exceptionally, and historically cheap. Various people estimate that this low-pricing situation will last between 15 and 100 years. My personal opinion is that it is difficult to make estimates on that kind of timeframe.

    Regardless, if natural gas in the US ever approaches the cost of natural gas elsewhere in the world, US consumers would be in for a very rude awakening on their utility bills. My personal opinion is that we should not eliminate these plants entirely. It isn't wrong to let market forces dictate our choices, but we should hedge against unfavorable market changes in the future.

    Disclaimer- I'm "in the industry", my customers are roughly 60% gas and 40% coal.

    --
    Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
  12. Re:Storage? by MountainLogic · · Score: 4, Informative
    Pumped Hydro can provide massive storage. These are closed loop dams with an upper pool and a lower pool. To story energy you pump water from the lower pool to the upper pool and to recover energy you run water through a generator from the upper pool to the lower pool. There are pumped hydro facilities as large as 3 GW. As these are closed systems they do not have the same impact that putting a dam on a river has.

    Another solution are distributed batteries at each substation. This has the dual advantage of helping with small transients on a branch and, when scaled out, adding substantial reserve capacity for the grid as a whole. The value to the grid in transient mitigation is cheaper than adding more transmission capability so the grid level storage is a free benefit.

    Perhaps the best way of handling renewables is Demand Response. Many functions can be shifted as power becomes more plentiful, such as cooling can be moved from real time (daytime) to making ice at night when it is cooler (and more energy efficient anyway as the outside air is cooler) and then that ice can be used during the day to cool a building.

  13. Re:If the headline is true... by Layzej · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If a town has to import bottled water because a coal company is allowed to pump waste water into streams then you have set up some kind of subsidy, although indirect. How far should a country go to prop up a dying industry? What is the opportunity cost for being the last country to embrace the 21st century?

  14. Re:prediction... more good comments... not by Anubis+IV · · Score: 4, Informative

    For a change of pace, how about we talk about the fact that everything the article had to say about the deregulation was quoted in the summary? I actually read through the article to get more details, but none were to be found.

    The rest of the article provides some (quite interesting and informative!) graphs and analysis about the current and future state of energy both globally and in the US. Nowhere in the article did they talk about what form the deregulation would take, when it would start, when Trump approved it, or any of the other salient details you'd expect in an article that was ostensibly about coal deregulation.

    I have no reason to doubt that Trump is doing exactly as Bloomberg said, but I'd love to see some information about it, rather than the bait-and-switch they pulled with their lede that has nothing at all to do with the rest of the article. Alternatively, Bloomberg could have just shown me the graphs, since they're good in their own right and shouldn't be buried under a lede that has nothing to do with them.

    Which is to say, as you see the comments filling up with people arguing about deregulating coal, enjoy a nice laugh at the fact that they're taking sides based on an article that has nothing to do with the topic they're arguing about.

  15. Re: prediction... more good comments... not by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 4, Interesting

    At issue is a government that ignores them and ignores good things (like the keystone pipeline) in order to appease a portion of the electorate.

    Explain how the Keystone pipeline will help all Americans.

    You know everything about it, and that is good to have an expert in here, so we'll wait for your informed post.

    I don't think this is quite what you think it is.

    --
    The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  16. The jobs aren't coming back by XXongo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Sarcasm aside, that is exactly why coal jobs are not coming back. Coal production is in fact very close to an all-time high in the United States-- we're mining about 900 million tons a year, more coal now than we did in 1990 (or any year before then).

    But we're doing it with machinery now, not with coal miners. Even if coal production increases, the jobs ain't coming back.

    Graph: http://www.insidenergy.com/wp-...

  17. Keystone pipe is mainly for shipping oil to China by XXongo · · Score: 4, Insightful
    The Keystone pipline is a device designed to ship Canadian oil to China. The United States is not really involved, except as a place that the oil passes over on the way from Canada to China.

    To the extent that America is involved, it is mainly a device to reduce American exports of oil, by replacing American exports with cheaper Canadian exports.

  18. Re:Programmers should grok logic by St.Creed · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Coal is only cheap when you ignore the environmental damage it does. Even disregarding the CO2 issue. Once you factor in all the measures you need to take to protect the environment from the radioactive waste, the sulphur and other nice byproducts of burning coal, well, it's not that cheap anymore.

    --
    Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)