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Self-Driving Cars Could Cost America's Professional Drivers Up To 25,000 Jobs a Month (cnbc.com)
The full impact of self-driving cars on society is several decades away -- but when it hits, the job losses will be substantial for American truck drivers, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs. From a report: When autonomous vehicle saturation peaks, U.S. drivers could see job losses at a rate of 25,000 a month, or 300,000 a year, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Economics Research. Truck drivers, more so than bus or taxi drivers, will see the bulk of that job loss, according to the report. That makes sense, given today's employment: In 2014, there were 4 million driver jobs in the U.S., 3.1 million of which were truck drivers, Goldman said. That represents 2 percent of total employment.
It could happen in my lifetime (I'm assuming i'll live another 40 years). But not with the roads that we currently have.
The Nissan CEO saying it will happen by 2019 was just fantasy. AI is nowhere near good enough to handle rainy roads, icy roads, construction debris, pedestrians, basketballs rolling from the playground, etc. etc. etc. Hell, it can't even handle a gigantic 18 wheeler blocking the road because it was painted WHITE and some dude got his head decapitated in a Tesla.
In fact I don't think AI will *ever* be good enough to handle current roads. However autonomous cars taking over can still happen if the laws change and roads are retrofitted with sensors and rebuilt to exact dimensions and uniform markings, everywhere.
Maybe by the time I die of old age.
This. It's one of the nasty little secrets of most (or maybe even all?) societies that the public subsidizes the hell out of the trucking industry. Also note that the fossil fuels sold at gas stations get shipped via truck.
"When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
'Processing information' incorrectly or inadequately hundreds of times faster than a human being can is still incorrectly processed information. The difference here is that instead of just a few people getting injured or killed (in the case of a passenger vehicle), or some sheet metal getting crumpled, dozens or maybe hundreds of people could DIE when 18000 gallons of flammable liquid is spilled all over the place and ignited.
When it comes right down to it, this whole damned subject is supposed to be about safety of human beings, and it CANNOT be about anything else. I have said for as long as this whole 'self driving car' subject has been around, that if a 'self driving' vehicle of ANY KIND cannot be AT LEAST as flawless and safe as a human vehicle operator, then it has no business operating a vehicle at all. So far all I'm seeing is this entire technology being rushed to market as fast as they possibly can, and, apparently, to hell with who might get hurt in the process. Apparently, human lives are cheap, compared to the profit to be made from this.