Ethiopia's Coffee Is the Latest Victim of Climate Change (theverge.com)

According to a study published today in Nature Plants, by the end of this century, increasing temperatures could make it impossible to grow coffee in about half of Ethiopia's coffee-growing regions. "That's because Arabica coffee trees (which are grown in Ethiopia) require pretty mild temperatures to survive, ideally between 59 to 75 degree Fahrenheit," reports The Verge. "Climate projections show that Ethiopia will generally become warmer and drier, and that means that 40 to 60 percent of areas where coffee is currently grown won't be suitable to grow the beans, the study says." From the report: In fact, climate change is already hurting Ethiopia's coffee growers: days and nights are already warmer, and the weather is more unpredictable and extreme. Hot days are hotter and rainy days are rainier. That leads to more unpredictable harvests and it hurts the local economy. Ethiopia is Africa's biggest coffee producer and the world's fifth largest coffee exporter, with 15 million Ethiopians living off coffee farming. Climate change risks disrupting the country's future. But there is a way Ethiopia can brace for its brewing troubles. The study found that rising temperatures will turn swaths of land at higher elevation into just the right places to grow coffee in the future. In fact, coffee farming could increase four fold if plantations are moved uphill, the study says. But to do that, the country needs to prepare: millions of farmers can't just take their crops and move to land they don't own. You need careful planning.

Comments

Re:Coffee in 2100

[acrimonious howard]

People will want to dismiss this "Oh noes, Ethiopia will be poor." But the truth is this is how things go from bad or barely manageable to absolute hell. Civilized societies turn to civil war and in our time feeding grounds for terrorism. The Yucatan peninsula went from 1.2 million people, with scientists, politicians, and surprisingly advanced civilization at the time, to just over 100k in less than 100 years. Drought was a big part of that.

Imagine what kind of havoc had to have happened for 9/10 of your friends and family to not have descendants. That's serious war and hell, and we see our own human history showing that we're not good at these long term planning challenges. The funny thing is that there were politicians in the Yucatan, in the beginning, that tried to get people to change farming practices to cope with the changing climate, but they were always immediately voted out of office because it would have affected profits.

So laugh and dismiss all you want, but vote for leaders that take this seriously and plan properly.

This is stupid

[argStyopa]

The study itself says "In fact, coffee farming could increase four fold if plantations are moved uphill, "

FOUR FOLD.

Yet, the headline is about how some coffee fields will be too hot.

Perhaps a more fair headline would be "Climate change displacing Ethiopian Coffee farmers, but will increase their productivity fourfold."?

Talk about burying the lede

[SlaveToTheGrind]

"Scientists project climate change could increase coffee production in Ethiopia fourfold."

But that probably wouldn't get as many clicks.

Re: Correct!

[Jesus H Rolle]

In 1900 there was a mechanistic explanation why NYC would have horse manure six feet deep on all the streets.

I take it you've never been to New York.

Re:Correct!

[religionofpeas]

we'll be doing something differently by then

Unless we'll be actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere, it will still be there in 80 years.

Re:Correct!

[Phronesis]

You make an excellent point:

• 1900: "Manure is a problem, and by the way there are also lots of other good reasons to stop using horses as our major means of transportation."
• 2000: "Carbon dioxide is a problem, and by the way there are also lots of other good reasons to stop using fossil fuels as our major source of energy."