Pilotless Planes Could Save Airlines $35 Billion Per Year, But Passengers Aren't Willing To Fly In Them Yet (fortune.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report from Fortune: Autopilot is hardly a rarity in the world of commercial air travel. But when it comes to a fully automated flight, most people say "hard pass," at least for now. The pilotless plane could save airlines as much as $35 billion per year, according to a new survey from UBS, reducing the cost of highly skilled employees ($31 billion), related training ($3 billion), and fuel ($1 billion). The deployment of autonomous technology could result in significant fare cuts, an estimated one-tenth of the total in the U.S. And yet 54% of passengers refuse to board a remote-controlled plane, according to the survey of 8,000 air passengers. That sentiment will change over time, the investment bank notes. By the middle of the century, the majority may be willing. But UBS said passengers won't do it today, even if ticket prices were lower -- a big hurdle to airlines, which the bank estimates could see profits double by using the technology. Much like the automotive industry, most passengers don't realize that there are quite a few autonomous systems already in place on today's aircraft -- including those that land the plane.

Comments

Re:Lower the price and they will come

[KingOfBLASH]

If you got rid of the pilot and co pilot, you would barely see a blip in your ticket price.

Let's do the math.

2 pilots @ $200k each == $400k
Training etc for those pilots @ $200k each == $400k
1 trip per day assuming 3 weeks vacation a year: 5 * (52 - 3) == 245
Cost of pilot per trip: $800k / 245 == $3.27k

There are approximately 200 seats on a 737, so that's $3.27k / 200 == $16 per ticket potential savings

Now for an airline, that might make sense on a large scale because they'll reap millions a year in savings, but for consumers it's barely a blip on the radar.

These are with conservative estimates. The salary I took was the highest in the range on glassdoor, I'm assuming all their fancy simulator time doubles their salaries, and most pilots fly short haul flights so they rack up multiple flights a day. Wikipedia confirms the number of seats for a 737, but of course if you have a cabin of first class passengers there are less seats, but still it wouldn't matter.

Additionally, insurance companies will likely charge increased premiums for a pilotless craft, so at the end of day the savings will be considerably less.

The only time you would conceivably see a savings big enough to care would be with a transcontinental flight where you might have four or more pilots (because they sleep in shifts and rotate out). But, compared to the ticket price, I suspect the savings will be marginal.

I suspect there would also be additional overhead as pilots have other functions than flying. For instance, determining if a reroute is necessary or if a passenger is fit to fly.

Additional training and delegation of these duties would most likely raise the cost of other crew.

So, in the end, this is a non issue. Until AI auto pilot comes in a cheap as in uber quad copter that will taxi you where you want on demand, we won't see AI in the sky

References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
https://www.glassdoor.com/Sala...

Let them fly cargo.

[jcr]

Operate robotic cargo flights for a few years and a couple million takeoffs and landings, and there will be a quantifiable record of their performance in all sorts of conditions.

Pretty hard to argue with going robotic once the record shows computers consistently outperforming human pilots.

-jcr

Re: Lower the price and they will come

[Anonymous Coward]

Welcome to modern aviation, where Dairy Queen is a better paying job until you have a decade of seniority at your current employer. New rules that went into effect after the Colgan 3407 crash mandate that airline first officers (co-pilots) must have a minimum of 1500 flight hours to be hired. That's 6 times the pre-2013 minimum of 250 hours, and the limit was imposed overnight. Those 1500 flight hours have to be earned somewhere.

The general career path for someone wanting to fly for a major airline is PPL (private pilot), a few years working as a CFI (flight instructor) to build time, getting a CPL (commercial pilot) license, flying commuter / cargo to get to 1500 hours, getting hired at a regional as a first officer, upgrading to captain, getting hired at a major airline as a first officer, upgrading to captain. That journey can take 15-20 years (there is no "pilot shortage" any more than there's a shortage of American IT workers), and you won't be earning very much along the way.

Pilots are desperate to get to 1500 hours so they can apply for a position at a regional airline and get their career ladder started. Commuter carriers know this and take full advantage of pilots. There are operations out there where you actually pay the company for a job in the cockpit.