Slashdot Mirror


Alaska's Permafrost Is Thawing (cnbc.com)

Henry Fountain reports via The New York Times (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source): The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as other parts of the planet, and even here in sub-Arctic Alaska the rate of warming is high. Sea ice and wildlife habitat are disappearing; higher sea levels threaten coastal native villages. But to the scientists from Woods Hole Research Center who have come here to study the effects of climate change, the most urgent is the fate of permafrost, the always-frozen ground that underlies much of the state. Starting just a few feet below the surface and extending tens or even hundreds of feet down, it contains vast amounts of carbon in organic matter -- plants that took carbon dioxide from the atmosphere centuries ago, died and froze before they could decompose. Worldwide, permafrost is thought to contain about twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere. Once this ancient organic material thaws, microbes convert some of it to carbon dioxide and methane, which can flow into the atmosphere and cause even more warming. Scientists have estimated that the process of permafrost thawing could contribute as much as 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit to global warming over the next several centuries, independent of what society does to reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels and other activities. In Alaska, nowhere is permafrost more vulnerable than here, 350 miles south of the Arctic Circle, in a vast, largely treeless landscape formed from sediment brought down by two of the state's biggest rivers, the Yukon and the Kuskokwim. Temperatures three feet down into the frozen ground are less than half a degree below freezing. This area could lose much of its permafrost by midcentury.

40 of 324 comments (clear)

  1. Time to plant trees by ClickOnThis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Time to plant trees. Lots of trees.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    1. Re:Time to plant trees by quantaman · · Score: 5, Informative

      Yes, and its part of a natural cycle. The polar caps on Mars are also melting, but we seem to be peaking and cycling back into the cold half again for another 11 or 22 or 28 or 88 years. There are several cycles that sometimes harmonize to cause the extremes.

      Solar cycle extremes as a seasonal predictor of Atlantic-Basin tropical cyclones

      FTA:
      Minimum sunspot years and the AMO index can combine to explain more than 54 percent of the variations in total tropical cyclones and nearly 46 percent of the variation in tropical cyclone days. Solar cycle extremes should be considered for more accurate seasonal tropical cyclone predictions.

      So what does that have to do with the permafrost melting, or even global warming more generally?

      Did you just find a peer reviewed article talking about sunspots and figured no one would realize it didn't support your argument?

      --
      I stole this Sig
    2. Re:Time to plant trees by MightyMartian · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It has nothing to do with anything. It's just a string of sentences strung together, because pseudo-skeptics need to have some sort of response, no matter how idiotic or false the claim.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    3. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 2

      You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    4. Re:Time to plant trees by ClickOnThis · · Score: 5, Informative

      You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

      Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    5. Re:Time to plant trees by Jeremi · · Score: 2

      It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

      Cool, but then you have to figure out how to power those machines. Presumably you'd need to use renewable (or at least nuclear) power for them, since otherwise they'd be putting more CO2 into the air, likely at a faster rate than they were taking it out of the air. How much power would such a machine require to remove a given amount of CO2? Are we currently capable of creating a CO2-removing machine that is more power-efficient than a tree? I have my doubts about that.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    6. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 3

      Cool, but then you have to figure out how to power those machines.

      Solar and wind. This isn't rocket science.

      Are we currently capable of creating a CO2-removing machine that is more power-efficient than a tree?

      Trees don't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. If they did then there wouldn't be any CO2 for them. Also, please don't argue that animals are supplying the CO2 they need because animal-life is a recent development compared to plant-life.

      What we have done is removed a fuckload of buried carbon and propelled it into the atmosphere. If we wanted to involve trees, it would be planting a huge amount of trees, uprooting them at their prime and then burying them deep underground. The better option is to use machines to capture CO2 and then use chemistry to split it into carbon and oxygen. We can make various things with these but the most space efficient would be to make diamonds and release the oxygen. Considering we've released over a trillion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere, space should be a consideration.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    7. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 3

      But until we have such machines...

      Actually, we have already invented the machines we need to capture CO2. We have the machines we need, we just need to build them.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    8. Re:Time to plant trees by Mal-2 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually, we have already invented the machines we need to capture CO2. We have the machines we need, we just need to build them.

      And power them. That's going to remain a sticking point unless and until we have fusion.

      --
      How is the Riemann zeta function like Trump rallies? Both have an endless number of trivial zeros.
    9. Re:Time to plant trees by Barsteward · · Score: 3

      Here is a possibility as a start https://www.fastcompany.com/40...

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    10. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And power them. That's going to remain a sticking point unless and until we have fusion.

      We have plenty of power from the sun and the wind, dummy. Worst case scenario, we power them with nuclear.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    11. Re:Time to plant trees by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

      A better first step would be to turn off the machines that actively add carbon to the air.

    12. Re:Time to plant trees by amiga3D · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's time to start preparing for the inevitable warming of the planet. We've got some time but I'd start by banning any new construction in Florida and other low lying areas. Even by the most optimistic view the Paris Accords aren't going to do much, if any, good. It'll keep warming gradually for decades.

    13. Re:Time to plant trees by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

      That depends on where it's going. If the area is very dry, it won't support trees. You have to work your way up from scrub, kudzu, something hardy like that. If it is moist, bamboo is better. It grows biomass faster than trees, and there are several varieties useful as building materials. Cutting the bamboo down and building stuff out of it means carbon sequestration, just like trees except faster.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    14. Re:Time to plant trees by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's like turning off the life support before the patient can breathe on their own.

      Also, YOU are a machine that actively adds carbon into the air. So turn yourself off first.

    15. Re:Time to plant trees by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Worst case scenario, we power them with nuclear.

      That pretty much is the worst case. It also makes zero sense because wind is cheaper.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    16. Re:Time to plant trees by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's like when I discovered the house I was renting had blackberry bushes outside. "Great!" I thought, "Free blackberries!" And when the blackberries ripened I went outside to pick them. An hour later I had a small bowl of blackberries, but I still had to wash them and my fingers were sore from numerous thorn pricks. The next day I just went to the store and bought a box of blackberries for a couple dollars. It was a much more efficient use of my time and resources to get the same end product.

      When I was a kid living in Aptos, I used to go with my mother to pick blackberries along the railroad tracks. We'd get backpacks full of berries for a couple hours' work tops. Later, we moved to Capitola, and we used to pick berries in a big open field on 41st Ave, out behind the KFC. Again, backpacks full. Even at the time a small container of ripe berries was regularly $2; today it's typically around $5. Then we'd take them home and make cobblers out of them. We couldn't actually afford to go out and eat cobbler in restaurants, but we could afford to go pick fifty to a hundred dollars' worth of berries.

      Maybe you're a shitty berry-picker, maybe your berry patch isn't very good, or maybe your story is just bullshit.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    17. Re:Time to plant trees by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Trees don't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. If they did then there wouldn't be any CO2 for them.

      A portion of the carbon that trees remove from the atmosphere is sequestered. That's a simple fact. Even in the rain forest, that's true. However, it's most true in evergreen forests, because the rate of falls determines (in part) whether decomposition is aerobic or not, and aerobic decomposition releases less of the stored carbon, returning more of it to the soil.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    18. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 2

      "The better first step would be to add a pollution tax."

      We have those, they are called "taxes". Everything we do produces "pollution" (if we include CO2 as pollution) and everything is taxed. Do you mean just raising tax rates?

      We do not tax specifically for the volume of pollution something creates. That's what should be taxed. The tax also needs to be high enough to cover the cost of cleaning up the pollution.

      At some point we need to recognize the diminishing returns on doing more.

      When we reach the point where we're removing more CO2 from the atmosphere than we're putting out, that's when we can "go into maintenance mode".

      That is we hit a wall of diminishing returns if we keep this NIMBY attitude on nuclear power.

      Currently, nuclear power isn't very cost effective and it's very centralized which makes it a vulnerability. Distributed solar power is a better idea and reduces the amount of infrastructure that needs to be maintained. It won't work everywhere but insisting on perfection prevents improvement. It would be nice if the government would fund research into next gen reactors which don't have an abundance of fissile material and thus are incapable of a meltdown but those don't make weapons, so they will not fund it. It's best we do what we can to improve the situation instead of waiting for silver bullet solutions.

      We could go a long way yet with nuclear power. Barring that though we've pretty much hit a wall.

      We're not even close to hitting a wall. The wall isn't even in sight.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    19. Re:Time to plant trees by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 2

      If wind was cheaper then we should be able to do without wind subsidies. Every time the possibility of removing those subsidies is mentioned though the tree huggers scream. Wind power as it is now cannot survive without subsidies, subsidies from a coal and nuclear powered economy.

      Just add a tax based on the amount money needed to clean up the pollution from each energy source. Wind will thrive because energy from fossil fuel would actually cost companies money. When we do that, we can strip all subsidies from the energy sector.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
  2. Every generation is phenomenally stupid... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

    The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

    We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

    The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

    1. Re:Every generation is phenomenally stupid... by hey! · · Score: 2

      They think they want good government and justice for all, Vimes, yet what is it they really crave, deep in their hearts? Only that things go on as normal and tomorrow is pretty much like today.

      -- The Patrician of Ankh-Morpork, Feet of Clay, Terry Pratchett

      And when that fails the next Pratchettian proviso kicks in:

      he phrase 'Someone ought to do something' was not, by itself, a helpful one. People who used it never added the rider 'and that someone is me'.

      In other words most people don't want to believe change is coming, and when they can't keep that up, they don't want to believe there's anything they can do about it.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  3. Re:In other climate news by ClickOnThis · · Score: 2

    And on the same day, he pardoned convicted ex-Sherriff Joe Arpaio, and banned transgendered people from serving in the military.

    At least Bush managed to show up at a press conference for Katrina with his jacket taken off.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  4. Re:In other climate news by PopeRatzo · · Score: 3, Informative

    Nominations not getting through? Thank you Democrats

    Good try, but Trump hasn't even nominated anyone for the posts I listed.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  5. Unstable equilibrium by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

    The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

    We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

    The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

    Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

    The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

    We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

    The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

    It sounds like the permafrost melting thing is an unstable equilibrium: the more it melts, the more carbon and methane goes into the atmosphere, the warmer it gets, and the more it melts.

    So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

    It would only take a degree or two of variation to trigger the runaway event, but that's never happened due to variations in sun activity?

    The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

    Every morning I read Breitbart first, then MSM (via Google News). Breitbart to find out what happened, and MSM to find out why it was Trump's fault.

    1. Re:Unstable equilibrium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      "why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?"

      End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost

      Known as “the great dying”, this was by far the worst extinction event ever seen; it nearly ended life on Earth. The tabulate corals were lost in this period – today’s corals are an entirely different group. What caused it? A perfect storm of natural catastrophes. A cataclysmic eruption near Siberia blasted CO2 into the atmosphere. Methanogenic bacteria responded by belching out methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Global temperatures surged while oceans acidified and stagnated, belching poisonous hydrogen sulfide. It set life back 300 million years.

    2. Re:Unstable equilibrium by quantaman · · Score: 4, Informative

      It sounds like the permafrost melting thing is an unstable equilibrium: the more it melts, the more carbon and methane goes into the atmosphere, the warmer it gets, and the more it melts.

      So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

      Why doesn't any positive feedback react that way? If I have a single beer that triggers a positive feedback loop where I want another beer, but it doesn't end up with me dead of alcohol poisoning, it ends up with me drunk and deciding I've had enough. An avalanche is another positive feedback, a single snowball might not do anything, but once there's enough sliding snow it starts to trigger more snow to slide.

      But the result isn't snow sliding to the centre of the earth, the positive feedback of sliding snow gives out as the snow reaches the bottom of the mountain.

      Global warming feedbacks aren't fundamentally different, positive feedbacks diminish in effectiveness as the system moves in their direction. The positive feedbacks of global warming are like two meta-stable states of the snow, top of the mountain and bottom of the mountain. Just like we went from an ice age to a modern climate, we're on our way from a modern climate to global warming. And that climate won't be stable either, eventually something else will happen, another set of positive feedback will kick in, and the earth will move to yet another equilibrium.

      It would only take a degree or two of variation to trigger the runaway event, but that's never happened due to variations in sun activity?

      I don't know how typical it is for the sun to cause a crazy hot year, but one really hot year doesn't do much. The permafrost doesn't melt in one hot year, it takes a lot of hot years in a row.

      Every morning I read Breitbart first, then MSM (via Google News). Breitbart to find out what happened, and MSM to find out why it was Trump's fault.

      I read a lot of MSM and Trump's administration has gone more or less how I expected, as has the climate over the past couple decades.

      Somehow I suspect you end up being either surprised the state of reality a lot more often than I do.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    3. Re:Unstable equilibrium by HiThere · · Score: 2

      Unfortunately, this isn't really certain. Venus started off not that different from Earth. And the sun has warmed over time.

      The real truth is that we don't *KNOW* that we won't set off a run-away greenhouse effect which doesn't end up with the oceans boiling off into space (slowly, admittedly, but water vapor in the ionosphere tends to loose hydrogen under the influence of solar ultraviolet). We tend to *believe* that this won't happen, but our models aren't good enough to prove this outside of the range under which they have been validated. (Even where they've been validated, they tend to have large error bars, but once you get outside that area...just don't count on them.)

      That's the real reason that the limit of 2 degrees was set. (Well, that and being easy to communicate.) We really don't expect a sudden change at 2 degrees, which is quite fortunate as there's no way we're going to stay within those bounds, but the models become less reliable as you get further away from where they've been tested. And we know for sure that the change won't be evenly distributed.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    4. Re:Unstable equilibrium by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      "if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?"

      There has been. We didn't exist yet so we didn't care. The carbon was sequestered by trees. It turned into oil and we burned it and now it isn't sequestered.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  6. Re:In other climate news by silentcoder · · Score: 2, Informative

    No, we're not talking about nominations that aren't getting through. We're talking about nominations that haven't been MADE. Democrats can neither approve nor deny a nomination that hasn't been made. Democrats fought against some of Trump's nominees - and lost every battle. But the vast majority of posts he has never nominated anybody for at all. Because Don the Con has zero interest in doing the president's actual job. He occupies the job for one purpose only: to take a lot of taxpayer money for himself.
    Already the secret service is bankrupt from bills they have to pay to properties owned by Trump on his constant vacations. The man they are protecting is actually billing them for the privilege of protecting him - to the extent that they are now broke.

    --
    Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  7. Like Brock Long? by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 3, Informative

    No, we're not talking about nominations that aren't getting through. We're talking about nominations that haven't been MADE.

    You mean like Brock Long, head of FEMA?

    The Brock Long that isn't incompetent?

    The Brock Long that was confirmed in June?

    1. Re:Like Brock Long? by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I love how we've gotten to the point that a "gotcha" is that the president nominated someone for a post, and that the nominee isn't incompetent.

      Trump managed to not fuck something up. Take that, libtards!

  8. Re:Blame Trump by meglon · · Score: 4, Informative

    Also, Democrats are slowing down the confirmation process

    Conservatives sure do like being hypocritical little twats.

    Republicans engaged in similar procedural combat after Democrats made the 2013 change, tying up the Senate to slow President Barack Obama’s push to fill judicial vacancies.

    Here's some light reading for you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... with highlights:

    The Washington Post has identified 587 key positions requiring U.S. Senate confirmation. Of those key positions, As of August 17, 2017, 117 of Trump's nominees have been confirmed, 106 are awaiting confirmation, and 0 have been announced but not yet formally nominated.

    So.... of the 587 key positions, Trump has nominated 223 as of a week ago. Then, there's this other side of things:

    http://www.politico.com/story/...

    At least 17 of Trump’s nominees took more than a month to be officially sent to the Senate, at which point the vetting by senators and aides can begin in earnest, according to a POLITICO analysis. (One of the 17 nominations, Jim Donovan to be Trump’s deputy Treasury secretary, has since been withdrawn).

    I get it... i really do understand; you conservatives are fucking hypocrites who have to play the victim all the time because you can't govern worth a shit. When you do get in power, the only fucking thing you do is to try to stay in power, instead of help the country.... oh... and whine, a lot.

    --
    Fascism: An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization. See also: NAZI's
  9. Re:Blame Trump by Mal-2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Democrats are slowing down the confirmation process so that at the current rate, congress will get through all of Trump's nominations in 11 years (!).

    That's the blowback from refusing to even hold hearings on a replacement for Scalia until "the right person" could make that appointment. Now that they've armed this loose cannon, they're going to be repeatedly shot with it -- and it serves them right. Always assume that your opponents will eventually get possession of the ball, and craft your rule changes accordingly. They didn't, this is what happens.

    --
    How is the Riemann zeta function like Trump rallies? Both have an endless number of trivial zeros.
  10. Re:In other climate news by serviscope_minor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Good try, but Trump hasn't even nominated anyone for the posts I listed.

    Look: you still don't get it. Trump hasn't nominated them and for the nominated ones the republicans control both houses, but it's still the democrat's fault.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  11. Re:In other climate news by doctorvo · · Score: 2

    A category 4 hurricane just hit the Texas coast and our President still hasn't appointed anyone to head the Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, or any of the agencies that deal with hurricanes.

    As usual, you are either uninformed or simply lying:

    Long was confirmed as FEMA administrator by the Senate in June, just a few months ago, but he is not exactly a stranger to the agency. He was a regional manager there during the George W. Bush administration, and he went on to serve as Alabama's emergency management director.

    As for DHS, Trump got both Kelly and Duke confirmed; Kelly has taken on a new role and Duke is acting director until a new nomination. You know, as it should be.

  12. Re:Blame Trump by El+Cubano · · Score: 2

    Short memory Kiddo, The republicans learned this stunt from us 16 years ago.

    I like how you talk shit but provide no citation. Classy! Thanks for helping make Slashdot grate! Lazy fuckhead.

    Here you go: courtesy of then-Senator Joe Biden

    It was rather aggressively reported by quite a number of media outlets, though I suppose the particular media outlets from which you consume news helpfully decided that this particular bit of information was not at all newsworthy.

  13. Re:use some logic here by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    So, this carbon was captured only "centuries ago",

    Things captured millenia ago were also captured centuries ago, only more of them. But most importantly, more people know what a century is than a millenium.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  14. Political Science by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 4, Interesting

    AGW was first proposed in 1896, and discredited for the next five decades. During the period 1950-1970 the growing body of evidence was sufficient to reverse the consensus, and since then all of the evidence is pointing towards, "Yes, this phenomenon is real and behaves as we expect." Denying this has become a symbol of ideological purity for a current political party, but there's only so far one can take that tactic.

    The science is really pretty simple. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Originally, we did not think that it could build up in the atmosphere, and we thought that it could not contribute any more to warming than [a] what it was already doing, and [b] what water vapor was doing. After we became better able to observe the upper atmosphere, it was realized that, yes, there was a bit of a gap for CO2 in the H2O spectrum, but more importantly, the CO2-dense part of the atmosphere extends quite a bit higher than the tropopause. But what does that matter if it's already completely opaque at lower CO2 concentrations?

    The effect of a higher partial pressure of CO2 is to push the CO2-dense region of the atmosphere further out into space, increasing the effective 'top-of-atmosphere'. This means that outgoing radiation must take a longer path out of the atmosphere, which effectively traps heat in the lower atmosphere. The "no-feedback forcing" can be relatively straightforwardly calculated to be ~3.7 W/m^2 per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which is equivalent to about 1 degree C of global temperature change.

    Now, that in itself is not a huge deal. The issue is that H2O is a strong greenhouse gas and you may have noticed that there happens to be some rather large reservoirs of that stuff lying around just itching to be part of the atmosphere. We've spent quite a bit of time looking for ways that the H2O feedback won't end up being a huge issue. And I think that I'm maligning anyone to suggest that Dr. Lindzen has had the most credible alternate hypothesis in decades, which sadly he has not been able to find credible evidence for. Some major flaw in the physics of H2O is about all that would save us at this point.

    AGW is a theory that we've been trying to disprove for more than a century. We've known for about 150 years that CO2 was a greenhouse gas and that many human activities release large amounts of this substance, but the initial assumption was that climate was cyclical and that warm years would balance out cold ones. The theories of AGW and climate change have at every step had to fight for acceptance among people who (reasonably enough) were not prepared to believe in them.

    And then in more recent history there is a crowd of conservative voices who have -- being generous -- rejected empiricism in favor of a more rationalist epistemology. Truth is not what you measure -- measurements can be biased, measurers can lie -- truth is what you can prove with logic and reason. It's not like science can measure God, and those scientists are all leftist eggheads anyway. Those elitists don't have a monopoly on truth. Which is all well and good, and certainly an internally consistent philosophy, but if the tragedy of empiricism is never being sure of anything, the problem with non-empirical philosophies is that they are under no obligation to be consistent with observable reality. Politicians at the moment find it useful to take up an anti-empirical position, and rather sensibly they've picked a topic which to date has yet to make much meaningful impact on the lives of most Americans. (I'm from Alaska; the glaciers and permafrost melting has been fairly readily apparent there, since the bulk of these effects has been at the lower alpine/tidewater icefields and the edges of the permafrost fields -- the most visible and accessible areas.)

    At this point the Republicans seem a bit screwed. Their constituency won't allow them to walk this one back -- supporting climate science has been a great way to lose Republican primaries in recent years. Symptoms of warming are (consistent with other conspiracy the

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  15. Re:Or you could attack the heat directly. by bhiestand · · Score: 2

    I'm not seriously proposing the "glass beads scattered over the desert solution", though. I'm just using it as an example of the kind of lateral thinking that can find far more effective and cheaper solutions than trying to undo, by brute force, all the burning of fossil carbon since the discovery of coal and peat.

    It's also worth noting that those "solutions":

    • - don't help with ocean acidification or any other negative effects of elevated CO2 levels
    • - don't create cleaner new power sources
    • - impose substantial new risks (too much cooling, etc.)
    • - are equally difficult or impossible to undo

    Sure, there are lots of insane and ridiculously expensive things we can do to bring down global average temperatures... but how in the hell can that be a better idea than building cleaner new power sources, increasing energy efficiency, and improving our transportation story?

    --
    SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling