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Facebook Essentially Has Been Telling Advertisers It Can Reach More People Than Actually Exist, Analyst Finds (marketwatch.com)

Posted by msmash on from the too-big-too-fail dept.

Facebook claims its ads have the potential to reach more people than recent U.S. census data shows exist, and that's troublesome for one analyst, who thinks third-party measurement services stand to benefit. From a report: Recently, Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser was intrigued by a trade publication study in Australia that said Facebook was claiming to reach 1.7 million more 16- to 39-year olds than actually existed in the country, according to Australian census data. In reproducing the study for the U.S., Wieser said Facebook's Ads Manager claims it can potentially reach 41 million 18- to 24-year-olds, 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds, and 61 million 35- to 49-year-olds. The problem arises when Wieser pulls up U.S. Census data from a year ago, showing 31 million 18- to 24-year-olds, 45 million 25- to 34-year-olds, and 61 million 35- to 49-year-olds. The upshot: Where is Facebook getting the extra 25 million 18- to 34-year-olds that the U.S. census did not count? "Conversations with agency executives on this topic indicate to us that the gap between Facebook and census figures is not widely known," Wieser said. "While Facebook's measurement issues won't necessarily deter advertisers from spending money with Facebook, they will help traditional TV sellers justify existing budget shares and could restrain Facebook's growth in video ad sales on the margins."

18 of 117 comments (clear)

  1. BIggest racket since religion by Ryanrule · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Advertising/marketing should be about 0.001% its current worth.

  2. Fake Ages by Luthair · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Do the authors of the article really not know that people use fake ages, have two accounts, etc.

    1. Re:Fake Ages by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

      You're right, they're just naively reporting things strangers say on the Internet as true. Because obviously FB believes those statistics, and not just because it's in their financial interest.

      Although, I do have some money I need to move out of Nigeria, and if you help me move some of my royal inheritance to another bank I'll split it with you.

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      Your ad here. Ask me how!
  3. Marketing loophole by Empiric · · Score: 3, Funny

    *demographic figures assume Everett Many-Worlds model of universe

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    ~ Whence do you come, slayer of men, or where are you going, conqueror of space?
  4. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Fake accounts, multiple accounts, fake information such as age/etc.

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    #DeleteFacebook
  5. Not people... accounts by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That's because you're reaching potential FB accounts, not people. There are many, many fake accounts on FB. I know of lots of people who have abandoned accounts and created new ones - either because they lost their password, or were being harassed, or because they just didn't know any better (my dad, who is not a big computer user, created a second account early on when he thought he was just logging in. It's still there, just not being used). As others have said, many people lie about their ages - at first FB would not allow minors to have accounts, so they would simply say they were at least 18. So that age range of demographics has to be quite skewed as well, especially the 18-25 range.

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    Better known as 318230.
    1. Re:Not people... accounts by war4peace · · Score: 3, Informative

      As others have said, many people lie about their ages - at first FB would not allow minors to have accounts, so they would simply say they were at least 18. So that age range of demographics has to be quite skewed as well, especially the 18-25 range.

      It still doesn't.
      Last year I created a Facebook account for my son, because he would get X free whatever-crap-in-game-currency-name-there-is for the farmville-like and dragon-something games he's playing if he connects those games to Facebook. I couldn't add his true birth year, so I told Facebook he was 16 (apparently if you're under 16 you can't make an account, whatever). now this must be the case for a huge number of teens and children under 16: some game or app offers you free Crystals or whatever if you connect your Facebook account, so there ya go. Then parents forget their passwords, new accounts get created, etc. Fake accounts galore.

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      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
  6. Kids in that range have multiple accounts by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 4, Informative

    Look, everyone has:

    school FB that your parents can see
    gaming FB that you use a gmail account for
    sports or arts or news FB that you surf stupid cat vids on

    in each group you connect to different people. You never post stuff to the first one that is really you.
    in the second one you only post cosplay or fake pics so nobody can figure it's you.
    in the third one you post a pic of a fuzzy animal or a truck or some animorph.

    Are you guys so new to the Net that you don't know this?

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    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    1. Re:Kids in that range have multiple accounts by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

      oh and figure about half of the 18-40 yo accounts are actually 10-17 yos fake accounts so they can use certain stuff on the net.

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      -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  7. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by aicrules · · Score: 2

    That could potentially explain the US numbers. But as far as I know Australia doesn't have quite the same issue with border control. The majority of illegals in Australia are people who overstay visas and that is about 65,000. No where close to 1.7 million, though census data is estimated, so that is more likely the issue.

  8. Re:duh!!! by tomhath · · Score: 2

    There's a big difference between "forgot" and "intentionally ignored"

  9. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by number6x · · Score: 2

    Nail, Head, Hit!

    1. 1) 41 million 18- to 24-year-olds = 10 Million people, 31 million fake accounts
    2. 2) 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds = 15 Million people, 45 million fake accounts
    3. 3) 61 million 35- to 49-year-olds = 15.5 Million people, 45.5 million fake accounts

    You have accurately diagnosed the issue.

  10. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 2

    I'm thinking the Facebook numbers are closer to reality. After all, there are a LOT of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. at this point,

    Gee, if only someone had ever tried to quantify the number of illegal immigrants in the US...

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    #DeleteChrome
  11. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by godel_56 · · Score: 2

    That could potentially explain the US numbers. But as far as I know Australia doesn't have quite the same issue with border control. The majority of illegals in Australia are people who overstay visas and that is about 65,000. No where close to 1.7 million, though census data is estimated, so that is more likely the issue.

    Australia has recently done a full five yearly census, so census data is NOT just estimated.

  12. Simple by viperidaenz · · Score: 2

    Census data doesn't include Facebook bots.
    Obviously bots account for a significant portion of the numbers.

  13. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by Zaelath · · Score: 2

    Sock puppets are people too, my friend!

    ~ Mitt Romneyberg

  14. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by Dunbal · · Score: 2

    Problem is advertising people really don't care. They are given money to spend and by god, they are going to spend it.

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    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  15. Re:Who do you trust more - Facebook, or the govern by Gussington · · Score: 2

    Australia has recently done a full five yearly census, so census data is NOT just estimated.

    And if you knew how well that went you wouldn't be so confident in the numbers...