Slashdot Mirror
Bitcoin Exchange BTCChina Says To Stop Trading, Sparking Further Slide (reuters.com)
Several Slashdot readers have shared this Reuters story: Chinese bitcoin exchange BTCChina said on Thursday that it would stop all trading from Sept. 30, setting off a further slide in the value of the cryptocurrency that left it over 30 percent away from the record highs it hit earlier in the month. China has boomed as a cryptocurrency trading location in recent years, as investors and speculators flocked to domestic exchanges that formerly allowed users to conduct trades for free, boosting demand. But that has prompted regulators in the country to crack down on the cryptocurrency sector, in a bid to stamp out potential financial risks as consumers pile into a highly risky and speculative market that has seen unprecedented growth this year. Just hours after BTCChina announced its closure, Chinese news outlet Yicai reported that the country plans to shut down all bitcoin exchanges by the end of September, citing financial sources in Shanghai.
My best guess based on the available data is that China was previously propping up North Korea using BTC, and these exchanges were a politically good way of doing that so they allowed them to exist.. but now since North Korea is waving its Nukes around, they are closing them down as part of withholding payments and support as a punishment tactic.
Expect more China BTC exchanges to shut down as they centralize power and control.
Bitcoin is still up 456 percent over the past 12 months = Things That Make You Go Hmmm
The transaction costs are a tiny fraction of what a bank or credit card processor charges to send Monopoly bank money.
And you keep your coins in cold storage. They're impossible to steal unless someone finds your wallet, kidnaps you, and tortures you for your pin, and even then the blockchain will show exactly who did that to you.
It's a technologically better form of money, far more efficient for moving large sums across borders. For this reason, it's only going up in the long term. If it's up 400 percent this year after the "crash," imagine what it will be like in a few years when millions more people grok the tech. Most Slashdotters will miss the boat. Not my problem.
I beg to differ. While I am of the opinion that Bitcoin is a volatile speculative commodity, I don't think that its being 30% down as a result of closing down exchanges serves well to make the point.
The reason I'm making this point is simple. A commonly accepted fact is that the surge Bitcoin has experienced over the past year is a result of the increased activity in China, including Chinese miners and Chinese exchanges. All of these Chinese persons, for whatever reason, invested in Bitcoin relying on the conditions of the market then, a huge part of which is the fungibility of Bitcoin. Now, as the current situation is, take some of that fungibility away by closing down exchanges and spreading rumours of cracking down on Bitcoin and increasing regulation. Obviously, the actors involved in Bitcoin would hurry to liquidate the assets that they hold, and would furthermore desist from acquiring more Bitcoin. Those that still hold Bitcoin will find fewer buyers. And add the panic caused by these news. If one accepts the fact that a significant part of the activity in Bitcoin was a result of the activity in China, a -30% swift would not seem all that unreasonable.
What would happen with a 'hard' currency in a similar situation? If the United States were to implement currency controls tomorrow, prohibiting anyone in the United States from acquiring foreign currency in exchange for US dollars, I wouldn't be all too surprised if the markets reacted by making the US dollar 30% less valuable. Yes, I would expect that it would fall less than that, but only because of the privileged position US dollars hold in the world economy. And, I wouldn't be surprised at all if such currency controls caused a 30% drop (or more) in less widely spread currencies, like, say, the Swedish krona or the Swiss francs. The situation with Bitcoin is no different. It is also akin to what would happen to any currency if the country printing it (except perhaps for the US dollar, again) faced some sort of hurdle, like we see happening to the pound sterling now.
As for why I think that the Bitcoin market is mostly speculative, my personal experience is that it is mostly used for trading cryptocurrencies themselves, or for hoarding it in the hopes that it will go up, but not so much as a medium of exchange. I have not seen many major retailers beginning to accept Bitcoins, nor do I know anyone (nor of anyone) that uses Bitcoin for their day-to-day transactions. While this transactional use of Bitcoin may exist in some markets (like the dark web, cryptolockers, some VPN providers, camgirls, etc.), I do not think this alone would account for the recent price surges, as I do not believe these markets to be as big as the Bitcoin market cap. For as long as this is the case, I am of the opinion that Bitcoin will remain speculative and volatile.
And yet, despite what I just wrote, there are indications that Bitcoin is not as unstable as of yet. Save for precise events that can explain certain market behaviours, like the current one, I see that its price has been fairly stable (or rising) in the medium term. For example, if you bought in at its highest in September 2016 and sold at the lowest any time after September 2016, you would have sold in October 2016. The same can be said, in general, for the rest of this last year. In other words, mostly those that are playing the very short term game (buy at time t, sell at time t+1s or time t+1w, or such) have faced losses (and if they were playing the game repeatedly, they still mostly came ahead.) Bitcoin was at its absolute maximum a few days ago, and is now still at a higher price point than it's ever been since July this year, meaning that those playing a longer term game, or using Bitcoin as a store of value, have overwhelmingly not lost. It is therefore not so accurate to call Bitcoin mostly volatile when there is an easily found upward trend.
We knew it was coming for years. I had guestimated it would get close to $6,000 / Bitcoin before it crashed to $3,000-4,000 as it did during the last major crash (that is it lost about half its value or so). There is a reason I accept Bitcoin in my business and spend Bitcoin, but don't invest in Bitcoin. Most who were holding Bitcoin should still be doing VERY well in spite of this crash though despite that I'm not investing in it.
I've done very well in terms of profiting off of having and using Bitcoin because it does tend to go in an upward direction, but to invest in it at the wrong time is just asking for trouble. It's a risky investment and I prefer to invest in things where I know my money is going to double in X amount of time. The good thing though is if you did invest in it when it was at $5000 and didn't stupidly sell off as its hit bottom today you'll probably only have to wait two years and three to make your money back and double your profits. For most people this is still better than investing elsewhere and less risky.
I've spent 10s of thousand of dollars worth of Bitcoin in the past month or two and have saved over $3000. I've also saved 3% or so on every product my company has sold where a customer has paid in Bitcoin because I didn't have to pay credit card transaction fees on the sale. The profit margins on the biggest items ($600+) my company sells are less than 3% so we have doubled the profitability on these transactions. The less expensive accessories we sell have super high margins though and make up for the low margin high ticket items.
I'm now betting it's going to be another 2 years before Bitcoin hits the $5000-$6000 range again and stays there. It will then proceed to rise up to and exceed $10,000 over the next couple years.
Rather telling that once someone in China gets rich, the first thing they do is look for a way to move their money out of reach of Communism. It's like they don't have any faith in their government or something...
HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
Gold has at least been around for a long time, and has investment value because it is so easily recognizable and assayable, and has established value in every culture.
In Roman times, an ounce of gold traded for the best suit of clothes. After two thousand years of inflation, deflation and manipulation - it still does.
Gold has at least been around for a long time, and has investment value because it is so easily recognizable and assayable, and has established value in every culture.
In Roman times, an ounce of gold traded for the best suit of clothes. After two thousand years of inflation, deflation and manipulation - it still does.
Yet many people have lost life investments by buying gold at the wrong time. It is way too volatile.If You buy high and sell low, as so many do, that doesn't do much for you.
I actually have some precious metal investments, made in 1978. If I were to sell them today, I would make about 500 dollars per ounce. That's actually a loss, adjusted for inflation. http://www.macrotrends.net/133... So they sit, I don't even think about them unless in conversations like this.
Anyhow, if you buy low, and sell before you think they've hit their peak, you might do okay. But most people don't think that way. On the way up, they are counting their money, and congratulating themselves for how smart they are. Then after it peaks, they hang on, because it has to go back up, right? Then after it sinks below what they paid for it, they hold on in the forlorn hope it will rebound. Then they sell it at a big loss.
My guess is that if we are taking the apocalyptic fear version the investors trot out, yes, when the wheels fall off, you can buy a loaf of beard and some bullets for some gold. My hope is that I don't survive whatever causes civilization to collapse like that. Just bury those Krugerrands or Englehard gold bars in a concrete box in the back yard, and when the radiation dies down, dig it up and make your way in the brave new world.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.