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Ask Slashdot: Which Businesses Will Go Away In the Next 10 Years? (nbcnews.com)
AmiMoJo writes: Ten years ago NBC published a list of business types that it predicted would disappear in the following decade. Ten years later and we can see how good their fortune telling was. What businesses do you think will go away by 2027? Who is destined to become the next buggy whip manufacturer, whose demand dried up due to changing technology and a changing world?
For reference, NBC's list was: Record stores; Camera film manufacturing; Crop dusters; Gay bars; Newspapers; Pay phones; Used bookstores; Piggy banks; Telemarketing; Coin-operated arcades.
For reference, NBC's list was: Record stores; Camera film manufacturing; Crop dusters; Gay bars; Newspapers; Pay phones; Used bookstores; Piggy banks; Telemarketing; Coin-operated arcades.
just kidding, lighten up
Table-ized A.I.
I think it'd be far more likely for Mozilla to disappear long before Google does.
Firefox is the only product of Mozilla's that really sees much use, and even it's losing market share. The latest browser stats show it has only about 5% of the market now, and essentially no presence in the mobile market (0.04%!).
If I'm not mistaken, their search deal with Yahoo expires in 2019. Given Yahoo's state, and Firefox's almost non-existent market share, I wouldn't be optimistic about it being extended.
After that, the rest of Mozilla's products could, in my opinion, be seen as failures, including Persona, Firefox OS, Rust, Servo, Thunderbird, and Pocket. I can't really see how any of them help bring in revenue.
What's their greatest accomplishment as of late? Obfuscating their logo into "moz://a"!
I think the future looks very bleak for Mozilla.
I suspect that's more on the 30 year timeframe, as I still see cars built in the 1980s and 1990s on the road, and only the rich can afford electric so far.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Now, admittedly, they may not be used for the same thing as they originally were, but the market is increasing.
I'd tend to say the following:
1. Repair stations (not tire shops) - electric cars and trucks need about half as much maintenance and a lot of it is instrument driven. A good way to diversify is add bike repairs to one of your bays, or a chai/bubble tea store.
2. Single gender bathrooms in retail. Most places can't really afford having separate facilities, so you'll probably see most places just have a room with both fixtures. Exception: bars, restaurants.
3. Fear based local TV news. Unhappy, scared people don't buy stuff. And TV is mostly dead.
4. Food delivery and prepackaged meal delivery services. Those that survive will transition to restaurant delivery. Uber will vaporize as drones replace on demand delivery.
5. Furniture places. 2025-2035 will see most people getting smaller places and getting rid of large furniture. Exception: couches, chairs. Best to diversify into Tiny Home style furniture that incorporates storage into the furniture (dual use furniture).
6. Expensive spicy food places. As Americans age into retirees they will start wanting to go to diner type places. This won't kill ethnic foods, but a lot of current restaurants will suddenly lose foot traffic, as retirees don't eat out that much. Nobody will miss them.
7. Parking garages. The combination of on demand self driving vehicles, more retirees, more cyclists, more pedestrians, and quiet electric transit will kill off a lot of parking garages and the attached malls. Nobody will miss them, except us skateboarders.
8. Single family home lawn supplies. Lawns will be replaced by gardens and more people will live in multi-family towers next to green parks. But plants will be in high demand for the apartments and decks. Tiny greenhouses too.
9. Cell phone stores. The 2025-2035 period will see ubiquitous self-powered wifi devices (like ST comms badges) that run off incidental radiation, and attach to clothes (either as sleeves, belts, broaches, or necklaces. This will save jewelry stores, of course.
10. Wallets. See 9 above. The new devices will mostly replace wallets and purses. People will wear nifty gem sacks at their belts, in which they store their coins (see how Canada does dollars, or Euro coins).
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
The article's headline said that these were businesses "facing extinction in ten years." In reality, very few (if any) of the businesses they identified actually are extinct.
Within the article, they did include weasel language under almost every single item to the effect that "it will be around, but their business will decline." Of course, if they had headlined their article "10 businesses that will decline in the next 10 years," nobody would have given it a second glance.
How can we continue to believe in a just universe and freedom to eat crackers if we have no ale?
Just kidding. Lobbying will be a growth industry for the next decade at least.
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What company will disapear? Uber! You cannot loose money on every trip forever.
Please, for the love of the gods, please let this stop being a profession.
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
All the people trying to get the fuck out
To reduce crime, make fewer things against the law.
If the facebook has its way with virtual reality then the worlds oldest business will vanish. Cross physical feed back with AI then things get ... creepy.
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
In fact, some of those are actually on a massive rise due to recent retro trends. Arcades and more specifically Barcades are popping up all over the place now. Film cameras are as of 2017 just starting to make a retro comeback as well. Used book stores seem to be doing just fine, too. Amazon only killed off retailers, not the second hand market. In fact, vinyl records also has a surge going on right now. So like almost half their list is currently being fueled by nostalgia into new market territory.
I'm sure this is meant half jokingly, but American football as a whole is in trouble. Schools are starting to shut down their programs due to lack of interest. Parents, worried about their kids' brain health, are pushing them to play other sports. In time, the talent dropoff will be dramatic enough to significantly affect big college and pro football.
The decline for the NFL has accelerated much faster than expected. The league's necessary adjustments for safety has made the game less interesting to watch and the recent anthem "controversies" are not helping. Attendance and viewership is down. The decline has already started and doesn't look like it will abate soon. Think that football is too big to fail? 80 years ago Boxing was the #1 sport in America. Look at the state of boxing today.
Dammit, that didn't make any sense.
I guess it's time to close up shop on my Betteridge's law of headlines auto-responder consultancy.
At least business is booming at my Poe's Law-firm.
I stole this Sig
I hope more for Facebook to go away.
Microsoft has had its peak, but will probably not go away.
Oracle is at larger risk. it's big and bulky with an unclear business strategy.
Several cloud service providers are at risk.
Some ISPs with bad customer treatments.
Analog land lines are already dying in bulk.
Trumps real estate business is probably at risk.
Apple - past Jobs the vision is gone.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
Don't over-estimate how big those revivals are though. Vinyl only looks like it is selling in significant volume because no-one buys music on physical media any more. CD sales are way, way down in the last decade, as are music sales in general thanks to streaming.
I was surprised to see camera shops trying to make a comeback. There is a chain in the UK called Jessops, which had a pretty terrible reputation for being an over-priced hard-sell rip-off even back in the day. They all closed and a low grade celebrity businessman bought the name, and is trying to bring them back. But everything in there is still twice the price you can get it on online, and with online sales you have more consumer rights.
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SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Record stores have bounced back
No they haven't! I have in my collection 1000 (!) CDs which I bought over the years. I used to go into record stores a lot and continuously buy more of them. But *all* the record stores I frequented have closed. When I go to shopping malls all over the world, I no longer see record stores, and don't have any opportunity to buy new CDs. The last CD I bought was a year ago, when I visited some old shopping mall and was thrilled to see a CD store, and was so thrilled that I immediately bought 3. But apparently, I'm the only one. People don't even know what to do with physical CDs any more: you can't physically stick it into your music-play phone, and the music and movie industry succeeded too well in demonizing people who "rip" their CDs and DVDs to files.
photographic film has bounced back
Maybe in your alternate universe :-) Nobody I know used photographic film in more than a decade. Maybe some art fans are still using it, but that's 0.01% of the market share it used to have.
telemarketing is (I'm sad to say) still going strong.
That I agree.