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Tesla Badly Misses Model 3 Production Goals (wsj.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Wall Street Journal (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source): Tesla badly missed its goal of building 1,500 Model 3 cars in the third quarter, the first sign that the production ramp-up for the new sedan isn't going as smoothly as planned. The Silicon Valley electric-car maker built 260 of the Model 3s between July and September, the company said Monday in a statement. In August, the auto maker predicted it would build more than 1,500 Model 3s before cranking up production to 5,000 a week by the end of the fourth quarter. Tesla blamed "production bottlenecks" for the weaker production. "It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain," Tesla said in a statement. "We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term."

17 of 244 comments (clear)

  1. But but but but by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Computers got better and we have 3D printers now? Isn't this the post-Luddite post-scarcity 3D printed virtual AI space future I was promised?

    Am I still going to retire on Mars?

    1. Re: But but but but by SpaceDave · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "Musk can't build a rocket"
      Later... "Okay but he can't build a cheap rocket"
      Later... "Okay but he can't make them reusable"
      Later... "Okay but he needs the military and they'll never use him"
      etc etc

      "Electric cars will never work"
      Later... "Okay but they'll never have the performance of petrol cars"
      Later... "Okay but car manufacturers will never embrace them"
      Later... "Okay but Musk isn't a car manufacturer"
      Later... "Okay but they'll never have a range of more than 100 km"
      Later... "Okay but there's no practical way to charge them quickly enough"
      Later... "Okay but they'll never be able to mass-produce them"
      etc etc

    2. Re: But but but but by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wow, you surely showed that strawman what's what.

    3. Re: But but but but by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1, Insightful

      "Musk can't build a rocket" Later... "Okay but he can't build a cheap rocket" Later... "Okay but he can't make them reusable" Later... "Okay but he needs the military and they'll never use him" etc etc

      "Electric cars will never work" Later... "Okay but they'll never have the performance of petrol cars" Later... "Okay but car manufacturers will never embrace them" Later... "Okay but Musk isn't a car manufacturer" Later... "Okay but they'll never have a range of more than 100 km" Later... "Okay but there's no practical way to charge them quickly enough" Later... "Okay but they'll never be able to mass-produce them" etc etc

      "Tesla won't reach their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla STILL hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"

      Later... "Tesla hasn't reached their target"
      ...

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    4. Re: But but but but by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They did actually all of those targets in the past, just never on time. It's more like:

      "Tesla reached their target several years too late"

      Later... "Tesla reached their (other) target about a year too late"

      Later... "Tesla reached their (other) target a month too late"

      Even though they are now 80% below expectations in September, that simply corresponds to the expected output in August. I would say they're getting better.

    5. Re: But but but but by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

      In what world do you live in?

      Tesla was late with the Roadster and had a slow rampup. (*Cue the doomsayers!*) .... then they ramped up and hit their production target, and everyone who ordered a Roadster got one.

      Tesla was late with the Model S and had a somewhat slow rampup. (*Cue the doomsayers!*) .... then they ramped up and hit their production target, and everyone who ordered a Model S got one (and continues to).

      Tesla was late with the Model X and had a very slow rampup. (*Cue the doomsayers!*) .... then they ramped up and hit their production target, and everyone who ordered a Model X got one (and continues to).

      Tesla was moved the Model 3 launch date up significantly, and actually launched on time, but at present is one month late with the rampup. (*Cue the doomsayers!*)

      This is pretty insignificant, for a number of reasons, and is the reason why TSLA isn't plunging today (as of time of writing, the pre-market has it down less than 2%, and I bet it'll close similar to or higher than it started, because there's a lot of bulls looking to buy on weakness). Mainly, though, everyone already knew this. Anyone who cares, at least. The vin number count has been low this past month. Articles had already discussed first a problem with welds that they had to go back and correct, and then later a problem with grounding bolts that they had to go back and correct. Normal production ramp stuff. The Q3 report mentions a couple parts in limiting supply as well, which again, while news, is normal production ramp stuff. Meanwhile, every other part will continue its rampup while the whips are cracked on that which are in short supply.

      With most companies, there's not much public attention on rampup issues on new vehicle architectures; only investors generally care about it. Most companies also don't begin sales until rampup is already well underway. But obviously, Tesla is a different story. Overall, unless there's a serious design flaw or other issue with the parts that are in short supply or their production lines that mean it'll take many months to catch up, there's not much to this. For most people waiting for a Model 3, how many lines Tesla ultimately decides to open matters a lot more than how long it takes them to get the first line running right. Also, they're just making one specific configuration right now (LR, with PUP, without dual motor/air suspension). The rate at which the other configurations mature and their config-specific parts go into production also constrains most customers a lot more than this.

      --
      "If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
    6. Re: But but but but by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's almost as if there's some money being paid to write slam articles about certain companies who are either disruptive or successful, who are not also paying those same sources to write glowing fluff pieces. If we called it protection money...it would sound like the mafia. So let's call it marketing money. These companies don't need to pay the marketing money because their products sell themselves, so instead we write trash pieces.

      Tesla makes excellent cars. All the rest of this is just stupid. If you paid your money for a pre-order, you probably knew that delivery was TBD if you were paying any attention at all.

    7. Re: But but but but by oobayly · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you're going to be pedantic so will I. It depends on how the goal was defined. If I say "I'll do X, and I'll do within Y years", but end up managing to do X after Y+5 years, I've still met the goal of doing X.

  2. Re:Can someone please explain? by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Paid shills from the big car companies. Paid shills from the big oil companies. People with investments in the big car and/oil companies. People who hate successful people. Idiots who believe there's nothing bad with burning coal and oil. The list goes on...

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  3. Re:Can someone please explain? by Wookie+Monster · · Score: 2, Insightful

    In what world is missing predicted goals by 50% okay? Given that Tesla has been in business for nearly 10 years, and they've been mass-producing cars for 5 years, they should have figured things out by now. For some reason Tesla is treated as a start-up, even though they've been around a very long time now. Investors should be worried.

  4. Re:Sounds like training by lucm · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Bottlenecks in a production line are extremely difficult to address. There's been tons of excellent books about it (such as The Goal) but it remains a major issue in companies with a normal growth so it's not surprising to see Tesla struggling with that given their insane expansion pace.

    I spent years in the manufacturing world and countless times I've seen stuff like HR authorizing crazy overtime in the weeks following a layoff or plant managers scrambling to rent containers to store surplus of a part that was backorder the week before. You got JIT? Next thing you know Texas is blown away and gas prices skyrocket, making parts more expensive to get delivered. You decide to build up inventory? Real estate prices go up and you end up paying top dollar for low quality warehouses.

    Supply chain, project management and interest rates: all examples of things that are too complex for the human mind to fully comprehend.

    --
    lucm, indeed.
  5. Not Really Surprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Tesla is basically trying to compress +100 years of automobile development, infrastructure, manufacturing, and marketing within the span of about a few years, all while trying to rewrite the book. They have no where near the number of facilities(companies like Ford have 100s of acres of facilities dedicated solely for testing out transmissions, gearboxes, etc. To say nothing of their factories) or dealerships(there's like only 1 within 50 miles of where I live). They're also hemorrhaging money due to said breakneck expansion.
    They do have an excellent PR however that's been able to convince enough investors(or donors, depending on your perspective) to keep dropping money on the company despite plenty of reports noting that they aren't really do very well.
    That said, you could argue that Tesla has achieved it's goal of convincing people to want EVs, and other companies to start developing their own. I doubt Tesla will ever really break out of its status as a small time car company though, and it's overvalued stock may come to bite investors in the ass.

  6. Re:Can someone please explain? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Presumably conflicting with the paid shills from Tesla, and the idiots who believe Saint Elon can do no wrong.

  7. Re:Can someone please explain? by michelcolman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You could call it "missing goals by 50%". You could also say it's a delay of less than one month, since their original plan was about 100 cars in august and 1500 in September. All of a sudden it doesn't look nearly as bad, does it?

  8. Re:Can someone please explain? by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm wanting to know what sort of idiot people who make these arguments believes exists - what sort of congenital moron sees "Subsidies will be expiring in 6 months!" ".... in 5 months!" "... 4 months!" "... 3... 2... 1.... Okay, subsidies just expired!" And then decides "Now sounds like a perfect time to buy an electric car!"

    Anyone who had any thoughts at all of buying an electric car purchased it before subsidies expired. Nobody was wavering back and forth while watching a ticking clock, and then made a decision only right after it expired. The only people who are going to be buying in the immediate aftermath are impulse buyers.

    --
    "If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
  9. Re: Can someone please explain? by Zeromous · · Score: 4, Insightful

    GM had these problems all the time until they went to three or four unified platforms. Every ititial iteration of a platform has trouble. This is as true for hardware as it is for software in any industry.

    He is building 2 new platforms from scratch.

    So why are you or any investors surprised?

    --
    ---Up Up Down Down Left Right Left Right B A START
  10. Re:Can someone please explain? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's not much more than Snap or Twitter at this point - losing billions a year, with a lot of investor hope propping up the stock price. Note that all of Tesla's competition (the number one selling electric plug-in vehicle is the Leaf, BTW) are actually making a profit, and are about to turn on the electric car spigot, flooding price-sensitive consumers with plenty of much more economical options than the Model 3.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!