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Is Amazon Lowering The Global Rate of Inflation? (businessinsider.com)
An anonymous reader quotes Business Insider:
Another investment bank analyst has signed on to the idea that the internet is holding down the rate of inflation. Bilal Hafeez, the global head of G10 FX strategy and head of EMEA research at Nomura, published two notes last month on whether the value of the dollar was being held down by Amazon and its ilk. In one note he called it "the Amazonization of inflation"... [O]nline commerce typified by Amazon is making the supply and distribution of goods so cheap that "Amazonisation" itself is now a deflationary force at a macro level, Hafeez argues. He writes: "While globalisation was the meme of the 2000s, this decade's has to be the 'Amazonisation' of commerce. Given the bulk of the cost of goods is distribution costs, Amazon's unique distribution model and widening range of products could impart a new disinflationary impulse on goods prices."
This idea is becoming more popular among analysts as the months roll by. Back in September 2016, we told you about the "Spotify problem," in an interview with HSBC's James Pomeroy. His theory is that the internet allows consumers to shop around and compare prices incredibly easily. It also substitutes cheap digital goods over more expensive physical ones. For instance, people stop paying £20 every month for a CD when they start paying £10 a month for endless music from Spotify. The result is that businesses are aggressively driving down their own prices because consumers simply won't go to the ones that charge more, and are no longer trapped into shopping in their own neighbourhoods. Sweden is so advanced as a digital economy that it may be importing its own deflation via digital shopping, Pomeroy argued.
This idea is becoming more popular among analysts as the months roll by. Back in September 2016, we told you about the "Spotify problem," in an interview with HSBC's James Pomeroy. His theory is that the internet allows consumers to shop around and compare prices incredibly easily. It also substitutes cheap digital goods over more expensive physical ones. For instance, people stop paying £20 every month for a CD when they start paying £10 a month for endless music from Spotify. The result is that businesses are aggressively driving down their own prices because consumers simply won't go to the ones that charge more, and are no longer trapped into shopping in their own neighbourhoods. Sweden is so advanced as a digital economy that it may be importing its own deflation via digital shopping, Pomeroy argued.
Science and technology are lowering it. We are slowly going to have to face the fact that our economic and social models are obsolete. We will have to accept that not everyone needs to work and we are in an ocean of abundance, but forcing each other to operate as if it's the Bronze Age.
As usual, it's not the countless scientists and engineers that designed and built the machinery that allows this abundance, instead, we focus on one person who had nothing to do with it, and he gets all the credit.
For instance, people stop paying £20 every month for a CD when they start paying £10 a month for endless music from Spotify.
This assumes that people generally buy music monthly, and that the music costs a certain amount. It also assumes that the same selection is available on Spotify as in the record store.
When I buy music on a physical format, almost exclusively CD, it's almost always used. If it's not used it's because it's a new release and is not available used, and if my interests are not top-40 or top-100 then it's probably not available on Spotify either.
I'm going to hazard a guess that Spotify isn't displacing as much physical media or purchased media files as it is listeners of satellite radio and FM radio, where listeners got tired of excessive numbers of ads or of not getting enough of the music that they want, or of paying for stations that they don't listen to.
It's often commented that 80-90% of one's business comes from 10-20% of one's customers, the die-hard, repeat customers. Based on my own observations, with music this seems to hold true. Sales to the very occasional buyer of an album are not insignificant, but they're not as important as sales to those who feel that they are connoisseurs and make regular purchases. Those in the latter group are probably going to still buy, it's the casual buyers that will be lost to services.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
* Transit fares have gone up continuously; e.g. https://globalnews.ca/news/235... And pennies have been withdrawn from circulation in Canada
*A new 1974 Ford Maverick, V8, automatic transmission cost under $4,000 in Canada, and probably around $3,000 US. Try getting a 2018 Ford Focus for under $20,000 today.
* Food prices have kept rising continuously
* Rents and housing getting unaffordable here in Toronto
* Cable bills keep shooting upwards, which is why "cord-cutting" is now a thing
* A new 50 inch plasma TV was $3,500 in 2007 dollars. Today a 50 inch LED TV can be had for $300
* A basic IBM PC with 640 KILObytes of ram, 10 MEGAbyte disk drive, and 320x200 siaplay CRT came in at around $5,000 in 1983 dollars. Today's $1,000 machines walk all over it.
Problem... you can't live in a PC or TV; you can't eat a PC or TV; you can't ride to work in a PC or TV. The upper or upper-middle class are better off today (what's left of the middle class, but that's another story).
Meanwhile. a lot of ordinary people, especially those in minimum wage jobs, have extreme difficulty paying for basic necessities. Is there an inflation index for necessities, i.e. food/shelter/clothing and transportation? And by transportation, I mean local stuff. A flight to Hawaii might cost less today, but the average person is more worried about commuting to work, and getting around town.
I'm not repeating myself
I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
Amazon hasn't been the cheapest for a long time now. What's making people stick with Amazon is that they offer a better service overall. I know that if I start looking there, I can almost certainly find what I want, the price will be reasonable - Walmart and eBay will usually offer slightly better prices for generic goods, but not significantly - and I'll get the product in two days delivered to my door.
They're no longer competing on price, they're competing on the entire experience.
Walmart has the business model you're referring to, but they've had limited success with it, largely because the whole experience involves shoddy goods, frequently abusive customer service, long lines, and dirty stores. You have to do more than compete on price.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
Hello, baby boomer here...
I wish I could criticize your post beyond being a bit exaggerated...
There are huge numbers of boom-generation people hanging on to what remains of their work lives and careers by the last millimeter of their fingernails. Add to that the fact that there's no such thing as a "savings account" any more: The only way to not fall behind inflation (see paragraph below) is to "invest" in equity, bond and/or international markets. Those markets are gyrating madly and some who needed to see a bit of safety for their 10 year money bought into the real estate market. They hope to put their hard-earned savings into a material investment vehicle they could see (and not evaporate suddenly), that should at least keep up with inflation. Some of them bought into the explosive adjustable rate mortgages, having been lied to by the fuckheads selling those (IMHO) fraudulent loans. My wife and I bought a house (using our 30+ years of savings) for that reason, though we would never get sucked into such a sick excuse for a loan.
Now about inflation: I think I agree that easily shippable goods have experienced reduction of inflation due to the Amazons of the world. But let's not be confused about "inflation". My wife and I have experienced increases in the costs of stuff we cannot do without far far in excess of "inflation". These things are things that cannot be shipped from countries engaged in "the race to the bottom": Medical insurance, taxes (property, sales, etc.), communication (I am a developer, my wife is a psychologist. There is no business without it.) We are grateful that another source of monstrous and damaging inflation, education (also local and increasingly profit driven) is not killing us financially as it is so many others.
My observation is that inflation has developed a bimodal distribution: services that can only be acquired locally have a high inflation rate, while goods or services that can be globalized have a low inflation rate.
Bottom line: Some unwise boomers didn't save and may have taken advantage of the bullshit loans, which contributed to the meltdown; I suppose the temptation of a McMansion might be part of it. I pin blame for the meltdown on the lying thieving bankster fuck heads (if I believed in Hell, they belong there, they knew exactly what they were doing to their mark^H^H^H^Hcustomers). There are also "wise" boomers that have savings who are getting fucked over by the lack of any investment vehicles that can be trusted in less than 20 year time horizon.
I save time by cooking at home. If I were to eat out every meal, I'd be wasting a ton of time fighting through traffic and waiting in lines, three times a day. I'd also be getting sick because those restaurants are never perfect at hygiene. I've never had food poisoning from a meal I prepared at home, but when I eat out, it's a bit like rolling dice.
With a garden in my backyard, a lot of my food doesn't even need to be cooked -- cooking is a crutch for people eating tough store bought foods that aren't young, fresh, and tender like what I get out of my garden. Plus, I don't have to wait in any lines to "check out" from my garden "grocery store."
Next, I learned about composting my food wastes, which REALLY improves the cleanup efforts of stuff that used to take forever to cleanup manually. It is SO much easier to take my dirty cutting board outside and hose it off at high pressure over the woodchip compost pile than scrubbing it indoors where anything splashing ends up creating potential cross-contamination and more cleanup work.
>Is Amazon Lowering The Global Rate of Inflation?
No, but Alibaba does. Amazon is all but a bug splat in comparison to Alibaba. The analyst who wrote the article does not see the elephant in the room.
While Alibaba is already really big with small importers in US, it is even bigger in developing countries.
This is part of the problem with the way inflation is measured. The fact that housing isn't inflating on a square-foot basis is irrelevant. Consumers are price-takers in the market, and if a bigger more expensive house is all the market supplies, then consumers are effectively faced with inflation. Cost per square foot is irrelevant, because you can't go down to the store and just buy the square footage you need.
Another way inflation is poorly measured is this whole business of throwing out certain goods like food and fuel because "they are volatile"; but this is a topic that's been beaten to death everywhere.
See also, "hedonics" where the Ivory Tower assures us there's no inflation because our 36-inch flat-screen is so much better than our 17-inch tube.
Inflation numbers have been politicized to the point of absurdity, and I can't even really tell how far it's gone so I don't want to say it's all that bad... but word on the street is that it's a lot worse than what they're telling us.
I'll give you an example. My grandfather bought a house with 2.5 years of his income. The same house right now would take me 8 years income to purchase.