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8.5-Ton Chinese Space Station Will Crash To Earth In a Few Months (cnbc.com)
dryriver writes:
China launched a space laboratory named Tiangong 1 into orbit in 2011. The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure. Last year Chinese officials confirmed that the space laboratory had to be scrapped. The 8.5 ton heavy space laboratory has begun its descent towards Earth and is expected to crash back to Earth within the next few months.
Most of the laboratory is expected to burn up in earth's atmosphere, but experts believe that pieces as heavy as 100 kilograms (220 pounds) may survive re-entry and impact earth's surface. Nobody will be able to predict with any precision where those chunks of space laboratory will land on Earth until a few hours before re-entry occurs. The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered unlikely.
When NASA's SkyLab fell to earth in 1979, an Australian town fined them $400 -- for littering.
Most of the laboratory is expected to burn up in earth's atmosphere, but experts believe that pieces as heavy as 100 kilograms (220 pounds) may survive re-entry and impact earth's surface. Nobody will be able to predict with any precision where those chunks of space laboratory will land on Earth until a few hours before re-entry occurs. The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered unlikely.
When NASA's SkyLab fell to earth in 1979, an Australian town fined them $400 -- for littering.
The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure. Last year Chinese officials confirmed that the space laboratory had to be scrapped.
Every time I buy Chinese made tech, I start out with high hopes for it. Then 2 years later everything starts breaking and I have to give up and scrap it and buy something good.
The chances of the debris to hit anyone are low (the area with actual humans on it divided by total area of earth), that's why it's unlikely. If they do hit someone, the chances of harm are quite high, but again, that's unlikely to happen.
Meet Georgia Lass (who prefers to be called George). She is a young Seattle college dropout who is unhappy with life. She is always at odds with her mom, Joy. One day coming back from her temp job as a filing clerk, she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station Mir. Finding out she is now dead, she is recruited to become a grim reaper.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt03...
Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
Seems to be the favorite place to crash space stations.
I was poorly trying to refer to The Guide (the one which says "Don't panic").
I can't quote, but think it says something like : the most improbable things have more chances to happen.
But can you imagine me, a French guy, trying to make a joke on a mostly US site, using UK literature references ...
Totof
but urban areas compared to the rest are so insignificant too?
Those things will get you a post-it note for sure.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
"The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered" SMALL, not "unlikely"
OR
"It is considered unlikely that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris."
SLASHDOT EDITORS, EDIT !
FFS.
It's very improbable for anyone to understand that reference without an infinite improbability drive.
Only if you're having a nice hot cup of tea.
General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
I'm sure I'll feel like having the Chinese Space Station crash again an hour later.
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
And imagine me, eating a poutine while typing a reply to your comment in english on a US website.
Bleh. Some poutine sauce dropped on my shirt. No problem, I'll wipe it with my towel. Could be useful later.
#DeleteFacebook
I think you mean a nice hot cup of a liquid that is almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea.
#DeleteFacebook
This. We are very small bullseyes on a very big target.
What? I don't understand. Where's the tea?
"Slow down, Cowboy! It has been 3 years, 7 months and 26 days since you last successfully posted a comment."
The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure.
It seems another case that we would like to find any opportunity to derogate China, even when it is clearly a case of technical and quality achievement?
Wikipedia entry on this space station: Tiangong-1 was initially projected to be deorbited in 2013,[11] to be replaced over the following decade by the larger Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3 modules,[12] but as of June 2016 it was still aloft, though in a decaying orbit.
let's see, each human is about one square meter (2 x 0.5) of target area so 7.5E9 square meters of humans divided by 5.1E14 square meters of surface area = 0.0015% chance of someone getting hit which actually sounds rather high to me.
Will they have an appropriate WTO compliant export license? But seriously, why don't the send up a module that can steer it back to a known safe reentry.
- Tjp
I am in wallow with my inner money grubbing capitalistic pig. ... Oink!
Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
I think it's a little worse than that. Humans spend a lot of time inside structures that are larger than themselves, and thus present bigger targets.
I think you'll find most people on Slashdot are familiar with Hitchhiker's Guide. But your reference need to contain an actual.... reference.
"Ford," said Arthur, "there's an infinite number of monkeys at the door who'd like to discuss the probability of Tiangong-1 hitting someone..."
"Mind, as manifested by the capacity to make choices, is to some extent present in every electron." -Freeman Dyson
> No, no. SOME made in china stuff is good. Almost as good as German stuff.
German rockets fell out of the sky, too. just ask any 75 or 80 year-olds who lived in London in the early 1940's.
I'm not repeating myself
I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
let's see, each human is about one square meter (2 x 0.5) of target area so 7.5E9 square meters of humans divided by 5.1E14 square meters of surface area = 0.0015% chance of someone getting hit which actually sounds rather high to me.
That's because you made assumptions that don't make sense. Firstly humans are not 1sqm of hitable area even if that meteor comes at us from the side, which it won't. It'll come at us at around about 45deg. So already you're off by a factor of 4.
Then you're forgetting about stackable humans. In apartment complexes humans overlap further reducing their surface area compared to the earth's surface, that's to say nothing of purposeful overlapping such as having sex.
Then you have all the humans who aren't actually hittable. I.e. no risk to me. I'm in the bottom floor of my apartment, and while I'm at work I'm actually in a bomb proof building.
You have waaay oversimplified and over estimated the chance of being hit.
How to tell when it's really not your day.
I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
Anyway, you'll get a couple minutes notice to find shelter.
Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
The probability is very low, but unfortunately the space station will fall exactly on the White House
Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
You mean it is 43?
Right now however the Germans engineer not only fail to cheat properly (VW scandal) but cannot even build highways properly: one highway bridge being built failed during rain last year, 100m of two lanes in a highway up the north just disappeared few days ago, the bridges on Rhine are so broken that some you can drive only 30km/h and no trucks above 3.5T are allowed, tunnels built for subway in Cologne few years ago or under the major European railway link few months ago failed miserably because of theft and engineering incompetence etc. The list is long but the top one I think is the airport for the city of Berlin (for less educated ones this is a capitol) - will probably never open(due to technical failures (but the subway trains are going trough the tunnels underneath so that it does not rot too much). Instead we have heavily armed police units on display in most of the railway stations in the country these days - who says there is no improvement at least in some areas...
Mid-1940s. The first V-1s were launched at England after D-Day (summer 1944). The V-2s started launching in September.
geek. lawyer.
-1
His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
~1% of Earth's surface is urban. Hitting anywhere in a city at all with a 100 kg object from orbit sounds a little frightening.
Make sure that, while running away from your 100kg object, you don't get creamed by all those 1 and 2 ton objects running around the streets of the city.
His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
you don't know how to do order-of-magnitude calculations, is all.
stackable in apartments mostly not an issue, thing could come through wall or window.
humans ARE roughly 1 square meter
"Will break out popcorn when it does re-enter to see who (if any) are the lucky winners of having their neighborhood re-decorated with Chinese space hardware bits."
No problem, the likely winners just toss another Tiandong on the barbie.
His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
At least it won't be a toilet seat resulting in instant reincarnation
Doc Brown, examining failed circuit: "No wonder this failed, it says 'made in Japan'." Marty: "All the best stuff is made in Japan." https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Pardon, that was a feature, not a bug.
No, they were definitely Doodle Bugs.
I believe there's also an effect from the solar "wind." Even though it's minuscule in terms of mass, over time it has an effect on satellites in Earth orbit--apparently it's an indirect effect, caused by the interaction of the particles in the wind with the upper atmosphere: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impac.... And of course solar storms are (so far) unpredictable more than a few hours in advance.
I hope everyone's insurance is up to date...
Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
Risk management is probability vs consequences. You have only considered the first of those.
The precise trajectory may not be known now, but someone should at least be able to reduce the possibilities from 'all of earth' to 'a few states/countries' in order to work out the second.
stackable in apartments mostly not an issue, thing could come through wall or window.
At a 45 degree re-entry that would reduce my 95 sqm apartment to about 4sqm worth of exposed risk the rest protecting me by significant amounts of reinforced concrete.
humans ARE roughly 1 square meter
Only dead on from the side, which is not how satellites reenter.
We let ours, the first, crash first. In the late seventies. And it weighed 80 tons.
*Hmph* We're the US, we make bigger booms....
1/3 of humans are lying down. 2/3 of humans approachable from any side of area (0.25 * 2) to (0.5 * 2)....1 square meter is the right number to use for order of magnitude calculation, not 0.5 square meter.
your apartment structure irrelevant, not how most apartments in the world are.