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We May Not Have Enough Minerals To Even Meet Electric Car Demand (jalopnik.com)

Citing two reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, Jalopnik reports on the scarcity of metals necessary for electric cars. From the report: [W]hile demand for nickel keeps increasing, half the world's nickel supply is too low in quality to use for car batteries. All of which is going to have seismic effect on the world's suppliers. In short: There will be winners and losers, and the winners will be the ones with the highest-grade stuff -- not unlike, I suppose, the illicit drugs market. "Some of the biggest producers of the higher-grade ores, including BHP Norilsk Nickel, Vale and Sumitomo Corp, are moving quickly to take advantage and seal long-term supply deals with battery producers," reports Reuters. "Among those losing out would be lower-grade nickel mines like Cerro Matoso in Columbia, owned by South32 Ltd and Glencore's Koniambo in New Caledonia, as well as Anglo American's mines in Brazil producing ferronickel."

What of cobalt? Bloomberg sent a writer and photographer to Cobalt, Ontario, about 300 miles north of Toronto, to find out. The town, which began life as a silver town, also is believed to have some cobalt, though no one's really found much yet. The search for a new source of cobalt isn't taking place in just Cobalt, Ontario, of course, as mining companies worldwide try to capitalize on the our electric car future. But the search is ramping up as the world's biggest source of cobalt -- the Democratic Republic of Congo, where about half of all cobalt comes from -- is increasingly unstable, making car manufacturers nervous and cobalt all the more valuable.

12 of 341 comments (clear)

  1. Minerals? by arth1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    These aren't minerals, but elements.
    The ore which they elements may be extracted from are minerals - several different kinds, none of which are mentioned in TFS.

    The elements themselves are not rare. It''s just a matter of paying for the extraction. It won't make batteries hard to find, just expensive.

    1. Re:Minerals? by thesupraman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If you can find a mine that produces any of these in pure elemental form, then I suggest you lay claim and get rich damn quick.

      Until that time, I suggest that what comes out of mines are minerals, and from those we extract purer forms, which can approach elemental purity at times, depending on requirements. This article is about the mines, so you are simply being a pedant, sorry.

      ' It''s just a matter of paying for the extraction. It won't make batteries hard to find, just expensive.'
      You think that is a useful comment? Hell, Seawater contains all of those elements! we could just extract from that!.
      Good mineral sources have order*S* of magnitude more economic value than 'an element is common' implies, as I am sure you are aware.

      The town of cobalt however is an odd inclusion - I suggest Bloombergs researcher needs up to strung up for that one.

    2. Re:Minerals? by geekmux · · Score: 2, Insightful

      To not put too fine of a point on it:

      UBS estimates that 15 million electric vehicles will be on the road by 2025, lifting nickel demand by 300,000-900,000 tonnes, or by 10-40 percent of the current market.

      Got that? In 7 years, nickel supply only needs to grow by 10-40%. Which is nothing. I mean, great if you're a nickel mining company, but not exactly the plot of a post-apocalyptic movie.

      Since you're clearly failing to grasp the big picture here, let me point out the fact that 7 years isn't shit. Mind telling me what the 30-year outlook looks like with that kind of demand? Mind telling me what the alternatives are when fossil fuels are depleted? The latter is the reminder of the apocalypse we're trying to avoid here, so demand is going to increase considerably for alternatives, and the minerals they require. We're quite good at underestimating too, and a 40% increase in nickel supply in less than a decade is considerable.

      Capitalistic Greed that has turned current mineral-dependent electronics into disposable objects with 18 month lifespans. At the rate of capitalistic Greed, the future is a disposable EV car replaced every 3 years simply because the manufacturer wants to sustain 60% profit margins. You'll need to take that into consideration too, especially as recycling programs remain optional at best.

    3. Re:Minerals? by MachineShedFred · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I wonder what the FUD stories said about lead supplies for lead-acid batteries before basically every car battery ever started getting recycled...

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    4. Re:Minerals? by Ramze · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm not sure how to parse your word-salad.

      You do know that cars today are made mostly from aluminum -- which is almost 100% recycled. There's steel in there, too... which is also almost 100% recycled. EVs are currently dependent on Lithium Ion batteries. Pretty much every electronics store not only has a recycle bin for mobile electronics, but encourages you to use it, too. Why? Well, sometimes they're legally required to... but Lithium Ion battery recycling is the best thing since sliced bread to manufacturers who use them in their products. Ever crack open one of those iPhones or Samsung Galaxies? Most of what's inside by mass is the Lithium Ion battery. Recycling them isn't difficult. Do you have any idea how much cheaper it is to just re-use aluminum, steel, and lithium rather than dig it out of the ground as a raw material to refine?!?!?

      Teslas aren't made to be replaced every 3 years... most electronics aren't -- just phones and tablets as they evolved quickly... and they're just now starting to extend their expected lifespans. Computers used to be the same -- new every 2 years for every business... then every 3... then every 5... now, lots of places have 7 or even 10 year old PCs running Windows 10 just fine. The TREND is the opposite of what you describe. New technologies evolve fast, older ones tend to stagnate and flatten out growth curves and create longer-lasting products.

      Teslas have fewer moving parts and fewer parts that need maintenance, so your basic gasoline powered car has more throw-away parts. The Tesla's biggest expense and liability is its lithium ion battery packs... which they're improving & by entering the Li Ion battery business, they have a stake in improving the batteries and lowering their costs -- which will include recycling the lithium from the old batteries eventually as well. There's no reason a Tesla couldn't run for decades just fine with only swapping out older battery packs to be recycled and replaced with new battery packs.

        Further, the USA has barely scratched the surface of its mineral resources. We have confirmed rare-earth metals and lithium deposits we aren't touching -- because China is mining away just fine for cheaper than it'd be worth for us to bother... especially considering the environmental impact of mining in our own back yards. There is no shortage and no future shortage in sight -- just corporations staking claims to get the largest control over the current sources of raw materials... which is no different than any other time in history. If and when it becomes worthwhile, we'll dig for our own and make our own refineries.... but, more likely, we'll recycle what we have first -- just like with aluminum and steel... and to a lesser degree, copper and other precious metals. We do mostly send our electronics recycling (other than lithium) to China... where they use a nasty process to extract gold, palladium, platinum, and other precious or rare earth metals from motherboards. It's become more profitable to get some of those metals from electronics than from raw ore in mines already, too.

  2. Yeah, in the 70's we were running out of oil, too by rmdingler · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I know, I know, an odd parallel, but bear with me.

    We simply developed improved technology to recover and refine the oil that was left between the mantle and the surface, and future generations of humans may discover recoverable quantities of petroleum products in the mantle.

    All we know for sure, is that the earth's most intelligent species is ever more clever in a crisis.

    Short supplies of nickel and rare earth metals? Increased profit margins for successful innovation? We'll be roping asteroids at some future price point.

    --
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    Ernest Hemingway

  3. Any other users of nickel? by shess · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I guess they expect that the groups mining the high-quality nickel will serve the battery industry *and* all other nickel-using industries? Because that seems dumb, like even a middle-schooler could probably figure out that the high-end nickel will go to expensive high-end uses, and the prices of low-end nickel will rise because the high-end nickel is no longer available for low-end uses.

    But that's just me, I'm some weirdo who doesn't even feel the need to tie nickel prices to illicit drugs for a headline.

  4. Time to mine some asteroids? by MangoCats · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I have a hard time believing we are out of accessible nickel in the crust - maybe it's not economically competitive at this time, like tar sands weren't 40 years ago, but I think it's still there.

    However, as the cost of extracting high quality nickel from the crust increases, at some point it will be cost effective to source it from space rocks. Like solar power in the 1970s, we're not there... yet.

  5. Alarmist bullshit. by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 5, Insightful

    half the world’s nickel supply is too low in quality to use for car batteries.

    1. There is plenty of nickel in the planet's crust.
    2. Since nickel is an element, it can be refined into pure nickel with the application of chemistry.
    3. All the elements in batteries can be extracted and reused, it's just a matter of chemistry.

    Consider aluminum for a moment: despite being extremely abundant, it's rarely found in it's elemental state (which is why it used to be valued more than gold). Then we figured out how to extract it and now it's dirt cheap.

    This is just click-bait alarmist bullshit.

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  6. Re:Yeah, in the 70's we were running out of oil, t by darkain · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now if only battery manufacturers would think of this now and start building rockets and planning longer ranged space missions...

  7. Re: Hydrogen. by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ah, got it. So 1/2 to 1/3rd the wall-to-wheels efficiency of an EV isn't bad enough for you; you want 1/5th the wall-to-wheels efficiency with a hydrogen ICE.

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  8. Re:Yeah, in the 70's we were running out of oil, t by phantomfive · · Score: 1, Insightful

    That's exactly what Elon Musk is doing.............

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