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Every Other Summer Will Shatter Heat Records Within a Decade (vice.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Motherboard: Think of the stickiest, record-hot summer you've ever experienced, whether you're 30 or 60 years old. In 10 years or less, that miserable summer will happen every second year across most of the U.S. and Canada, the Mediterranean, and much of Asia, according to a study to be published in the open access journal Earth's Future. By the 2030s, every second summer over almost all of the entire Northern hemisphere will be hotter than any record-setting hot summer of the past 40 years, the study found. By 2050, virtually every summer will be hotter than anything we've experienced to date. Record hot summers are now 70 times more likely than they were in the past 40 years over the entire Northern hemisphere, the peer-reviewed study found. What does all this mean? Heat alerts will be increasing, cities will have to employ aggressive cooling strategies most summers, and in places like South Asia, it will be too dangerous to work outside, Francis Zwiers, director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at Canada's University of Victoria, said.
Heard this twenty years ago...
No you didn't, at least not from any reputable source. What you heard from those was the global temperatures would continue to rise. This is a novel claim, namely that increases will be felt from year to year over "most of the U.S. and Canada, the Mediterranean, and much of Asia."
What was predicted 20 years ago?! Really?
Hottest year on record: 2016; 2nd hottest year on record: 2015; 3rd hottest year on record: 2014; 4th hottest year on record: 2010; 5th hottest year on record: 2013; 6th hottest year on record: 2005; 7th hottest year on record: 2009; 8th hottest year on record: 1998; 9th hottest year on record: 2012; and for the 10th we have a draw between, 2003, 2006 & 2007.
not sure if you grasped the concept of burning;) it releases heat and CO2.
but since methane has over 20 times the greenhouse effect of CO2, we would be better off than if the methane were released unburned - though not better off than if the methane were not released in the first place.
https://www.reddit.com/r/datai...
Those are testable predictions.
If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?
No, it would invalidate the results of this specific piece of research.
Well, partially invalidate... their model is statistical so fail or succeed analysis of what specifically happened would be required to figure out if their results were correct. It could be their research was flawless but some nutjob started WWIII and caused a Nuclear winter.
If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?
1) Carbon continues to skyrocket but temperatures plummet or even plateau.
2) Another mechanism is found that better explains the temperatures.
3) More research suggests that the positive feedbacks won't kick in, or at least not to the extent we predict.
4) A negative feedback is discovered that will counteract the warming and the positive feedbacks.
5) It turns out there's a bad assumption shared by all the models, and if you correct it the extreme warming goes away.
The only one that feels remotely plausible is #3, and maybe a little bit of #5 (though 5 could go the other way and underestimate the warming), but even there the certainty is growing stronger, not weaker.
The obvious follow-up question is what could convince you that AGW is a real thing?
I stole this Sig
And this is wrong. The conclusion is that the CURRENT record summer will become the norm within 20 years. It does not mean that within 20 years, every other summer will become hotter than the last, but rather that there is 50% chance that temperatures will reach the current record of the last 40 years or so. The likelihood that every other summer would break records is obviously very low.
Interesting that they leave Northern Europe out of the list. The hottest summer on record in UK was in 1976, which is also conveniently outside the 40 year window _right now_, let alone in a decade's time. 1991 was a good hot summer but again that's outside when they will be doing their trend calculations. More recent summers haven't come close to 1976. Even last year's temperatures weren't as high and in no way did they last as long.
If summers are getting consistently hotter, we would have hosepipe bans, but we haven't had one for over half a decade. The water companies are just as rubbish as they were back in the 2000s, so it isn't that somehow the water table is capable of maintaining its current level.
So this is saying some regions will be hotter, so long as those regions are narrowly defined and the data range is restricted in order to prove the hypothesis.
"Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
No, several feet of sea level rise was not predicted by 2010. The IPCC Second Archive report in 1995 projected a rise of around 5 cm (2 inches) by 2010 (just from eyeballing the graphs). Subsequent IPCC reports have raised that a bit but none of them predicted even a half foot of SLR by 2010.
IPCC Second Archive Report - Working Group 1 (It's a big PDF (51 MB) but the chapter on sea level starts on page 359.)
No you didn't, at least not from any reputable source.
Wrong: https://clintonwhitehouse3.arc...
I was under the impression that it was traditional when providing a link to support a claim, that you choose one that actually supports your claim.
Of course he was modded troll, because he is lying. Yes, there is some data homogenization to account for differences in the accuracy of historical data. You can question that practice if you wish, but the un-homogenized data actually shows a larger warming trend. https://www.skepticalscience.c...
Hotter by 0.02 degrees.. AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS 0.1 degrees.
Science! Learn it!
If you were a scientist you'd not be looking at individual temperatures but at trends: http://www.economist.com/node/...
Instead you make some claim of some arbitrary temperature the GP didn't mention (god knows in what relation to, he mentioned 12 different years). By the way the number you're looking for is +2.03 degrees, not 0.02 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc...
But the real disappointment is that someone modded you up.