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New Study Suggests We Don't Understand Supervolcanoes (sciencealert.com)
Better microsampling (and analysis) are revealing "previously obscured" clues about how super-hot molten lava behaves, according to a Science Alert article shared by schwit1:
"The older view is that there's a long period with a big tank of molten rock in the crust," says geoscientist Nathan Andersen from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "A new view is that magma is stored for a long period in a state that is locked, cool, crystalline, and unable to produce an eruption. That dormant system would need a huge infusion of heat to erupt." Such a huge infusion of heat is what's thought to have unleashed a violent supereruption in California some 765,000 years ago... [A]s awesomely destructive as the supereruption was, lingering evidence from the aftermath can tell us about the magma conditions deep underground before the top blew so spectacularly.
Specifically, an analysis of argon isotopes contained in crystals from the Bishop Tuff -- the large rocky outcrop produced when the Long Valley Caldera was created -- shows the magma from the supereruption was heated rapidly, not slowly simmered. Geologically speaking, that is -- meaning the heating forces that produced the supereruption occurred over decades, or perhaps a couple of centuries. (A long time for people, sure, but a blink of an eye in the life-time of a supervolcano.) The reasoning is that argon quickly escapes from hot crystals, so it wouldn't have a chance to accumulate in the rock if the rock were super-heated for a long time... Unfortunately, while scientists are doing everything they can to read the signs of volcanic supereruptions -- something NASA views as more dangerous than asteroid strikes -- the reality is, the new findings don't bring us any closer to seeing the future.
"This does not point to prediction in any concrete way," warns geologist Brad Singer, "but it does point to the fact that we don't understand what is going on in these systems, in the period of 10 to 1,000 years that precedes a large eruption."
Specifically, an analysis of argon isotopes contained in crystals from the Bishop Tuff -- the large rocky outcrop produced when the Long Valley Caldera was created -- shows the magma from the supereruption was heated rapidly, not slowly simmered. Geologically speaking, that is -- meaning the heating forces that produced the supereruption occurred over decades, or perhaps a couple of centuries. (A long time for people, sure, but a blink of an eye in the life-time of a supervolcano.) The reasoning is that argon quickly escapes from hot crystals, so it wouldn't have a chance to accumulate in the rock if the rock were super-heated for a long time... Unfortunately, while scientists are doing everything they can to read the signs of volcanic supereruptions -- something NASA views as more dangerous than asteroid strikes -- the reality is, the new findings don't bring us any closer to seeing the future.
"This does not point to prediction in any concrete way," warns geologist Brad Singer, "but it does point to the fact that we don't understand what is going on in these systems, in the period of 10 to 1,000 years that precedes a large eruption."
Just so you can tell us "we still don't understand what is going on".
Gee, thanks for the update.
Any process which has a form of relaxation oscillations, such as mounting mechanical tension resulting in catastrophic release in an earthquake, or supernova blast in a binary star system, or an supervolcano eruption caused by a sudden event, has to have three underlying processes: first, of slow rise to criticality, second, of constant dissipation which pushes system away from criticality, and the third: of sudden relaxation when level of criticality is crossed.
Looking at the Earth geology, we first must understand at what rate it produces (and accumulates) heat internally, and at what rate it releases its internal heat. It may as well be that Earth is cooling faster then it heats itself, in which case, there as well could never be another supervolcano eruption. Or, it heats itself at rate slower than the rate it had 700k years ago, which would mean that another supervolcano eruption would be postponed much further into the future than simple linear interpolation would suggest. Or, perhaps greenhouse effect affects not only heat our planet receives by Sun's irradiation, but also the total rate of natural cooling of Earth as a whole, in which case we stand to lose much more than just ice caps and bad weather.
at all, but I digress.
Laka...Céilí band
Humans don't understand nearly as much as they think they do.
It turns out a massive eruption at Yellowstone would only wipe out the part of the country that us coastal elitist don't care about! #WhoNeedsFoodAnyway ;)
Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
Sounds like a new meme
Like we don't understand why someone would choose a nick like FrostyPis--oh,wait. I got it. Never mind
WARNING: Smartphones have side effects--most of them undocumented.
Super volcanoes are like great earthquakes. After 30+ years of warnings, I'm still waiting for California to slide into the Pacific Ocean.
That’s because the San Andreas is horizontal, not vertical.
Col. Robert Iverson: People. Doctors Zimsky and Keyes? You guys are our resident geophysicists, so what do you make of this?
Dr. Conrad Zimsky: The mantle is a chemical hodgepodge of, a, variety of elements...
Dr. Ed 'Braz' Brazzelton: Say it with me: "I don't know."
---
The first rule of being a true scientist. Admit you don't know everything.
#DeleteFacebook
Science is an ever-evolving field. I've noticed that a lot of scientists display a lot of hubris so it's always refreshing to hear when a group admits that they were wrong or that they really do not know it all. The expert complex is really dangerous because there is nothing more harmful than advice given by people who claim expertise but do not have anything other than their own experience to go on.
so, they're like women then?
Comment removed based on user account deletion
I have to tell you, most of the Nation is waiting for that too... with great anticipation.
That's the problem with people like the previous two AC's (dare I say climate science deniers). They don't have a unified coherent idea about what's going on. It's all scattershot like a shotgun. So one person says it's volcanic activity causing global warming, another says it's the sun and others say the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics proves the greenhouse effect is impossible but provide no reason for the warming, etc, etc. They throw out a bunch of thoughts with the hope that some of the shot will hit the target. They seldom do.
On the other hand climate scientists do have a unified coherent idea about what's going on. The message hasn't changed much in over 50 years, they've just filled in more and more details and improved their understanding of them.
Regarding the first AC they need to show that it's not something that's been going on for more than 10,000 years and that there's been a significant change in the volcanic activity in Antarctica in the last few hundred years. There is no evidence that is the case. Also not much evidence that isn't the case but if it had changed significantly in the past 50 years or so I think we would have noticed.
Regarding the second AC the sun since around 2006 has shown its lowest activity level in the past 100 years. Yet there is no indication of cooling as a result of it.
Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!
Creimy is posting more than 2 posts a day. Hurry! mod down otherwise /. will go to hell again!
Note: you can mod down even if already at -1 to lower karma and to prevent lost /. users to accidentally mod up.
C.D. Reimer is a renowned Slashdot collaborator, as he puts it himself; "Because of the quality of my posts and my article submissions, I'm a highly rated commentator and moderator."
But does anybody ever wondered what "C.D." stands for? Well, it stands for Creimy Dumpty of course!
Creimy Dumpty sat on the wall,
Creimy Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses
And all the king's men
Couldn't put Creimy Dumpty
Together again.
Creimy's siblings video and theme song, very realistic, especially the pants, just like Creimy's:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
With "Vice President Pence Vowing US Astronauts Will Return To the Moon", we are sure they will need miracle workers up there, here is what it would look like. Note that Creimy takes care of bringing a lot of food to the moon as depicted below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Creimy's real pictures:
Before the sex change:
https://ibb.co/cc7Ddw
After the sex change:
https://ibb.co/gVad65
Creimy's "enterprise-level" chair, he talks about it all the time on slashdot:
http://www.keynamics.com/image...
Creimy's head, while his supervisor was talking to him, not with him, since it is impossible to do with Creimy:
https://school.discoveryeducat...
Creimy acting in educational resource document, he actually confirmed himself on Slashdot that he was handled by Special Education for the Santa Clara County Office of Education! He is really a king Dumpty!:
http://www.sccoe.org/depts/stu...
Who modded this insightful? There's nothing insightful here, just a sad desperate attempt to rebuild his karma.
"New Study Suggests We Don't Understand Supervolcanoes"
But of course, for our resident miracle worker Creimy Dumpty Reimer, it is obvious, he is so smart...
Go fuck yourself creimer! Everybody knows you are a retard!
So creimer what will you do today?
Will you read the stupid SEO vlogging book under your bed? The one you paid for? This could earn you a few thousand dollars over your life if you're lucky! Probably not.
Will you pirate the complete idiot's guide to CISSP? This could earn you a half million dollars before you retire... not even trying. No chance in hell. Will you walk into the door at work and announce you need a mentor for your exam? NO WAY!
Will you go to a parking lot and look for unused lotto tickets like a junkie? Yep. Yep Yep for sure.
Will you shitpost as -1 and karma whore your ninja sock so you can try and upvote your creimer account? Yeap probably going to do that. This will perhaps earn you nothing because your ad-posting behavior is absolutely not tolerated and people are watching you like hawks.
Your trolls do nothing to you compared to what you do to yourself.
California is a nice place, but too expensive, so my plans have always been to move there after TBO when all the land is cheap.
Ever noticed how these conversational comments to creimer are always in response to another AC and never a direct reply to creimer?
cap: shrilly
We post in response to each other so that we can troll you without shitting up the main thread. We can all talk about you and nobody has to see or deal with it all the way down here 5 replies deep past your initial daily shit of -1.
Yeah yeah I know you're not creimer, you're just someone so concerned with his right to annoy us that you're replying to a bunch of nothing buried deep underneath digital outhouse in the desert.
Here are some posts from creimer's old accounts. I'll start with his love of child brides.
If all my assets were liquidated, I would still have enough cash to buy a new car and head off to Mexico to find a chica to marry.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11064719&cid=55125199
You're aware that are some states in the U.S. that allow underage marriage as young as 14 years old?
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11064719&cid=55123829
As for my comment, I've heard stories of engineers retiring at 50, moving to Mexico and marrying underage girls. Since I work with ex-military, the Philippines is a popular retirement spot for marrying underage girls as well. It's all about getting the most bang for your retirement dollars.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11064719&cid=55123241
That only works if you retire to Mexico, build a mansion (by local standards), marry an underage sweet thing and bequeath all your possessions to the village.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11064719&cid=55122609
You need to be more specific. I wrote 3,000+ comments this year.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11065203&cid=55126475
Nah... I just do it to piss off my trolls and make coffee money off of them.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11060179&cid=55118657
We have different priorities. You want to climb the corporate ladder. I want to own the corporate ladder.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11055599&cid=55114803
Your bitch licks your balls. Most people don't brag about practicing bestiality. Is there a reason why you married a dog and not a goat?
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11045391&cid=55106155
My employers don't care about what my Slashdot trolls think. Now go off and lick your balls somewhere else.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11045391&cid=55105847
iPhone 6s and reduce my monthly bill from $80 to $50. As a phone and a video camera, the iPhone 6s isn't obsolete. As a Sprint customer for 20+ years, Sprint will always offer me a new iPhone if I decide to stop using the 6s as a phone in the next several years.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11050405&cid=55104759
Miracle workers are never afraid to ask for a second opinion. Supervisor gave me his opinion — and a mess to clean up. Lesson learned from this incident: if something isn't quite broken, break it.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11045391&cid=55102681
So you can turn around call me a liar again? People have been playing that game with me for years.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11044925&cid=55099967
Based on what I've read about Uber, he need to tell the boys to clean up their locker room behavior, zip up their pants, and attend sensitivity training until everyone agrees that women are not sexual objects.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11044823&cid=55096751
Which doesn't violate the Slashdot TOS. If you got a problem with that, take it up with management.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11037323&cid=55089659
This year I've posted ~4,000 comments.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=11037237&cid=55089407
I don't bother with mod points. I'm doing something much more sinister. It took ten story submissions — I'll have to double check the number — to move cdreimer's karma from neutral to excellent without ever being exposed to the capricious mods. Mmmmmwwwwahahahahahahaha!
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=10997539&cid=55033813
What part of the law. By doxing me on Slashdot, you're interfering with my constitutional right to express my opinion.
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=10992527&cid=55028457
I used to enjoy reading and posting on Slashdot. But the trolls have made it a living hell over the last six months. So I turned Slashdot into a business model to make coffee money. It's not personal, it's just business. ;)
https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=10981443&cid=54999041
It's not supervolcanos you fucking imbecile, it's the SUN thats causing the global warming. The sun is in a high activity phase and will shortly fall down and we will go into another ice age. NASA scientists are idiots who put themomiters in airports where exaghst fumes give fake readings then report that as FACT. The global warming is a hoax.
Pft. You believe in the sun? Don't you know that's just a NASA BS SCAM to get government grants for "space" exploration!
Suppose we could predict a supervolcano eruption for one of the known calderas in the Western United States, that it is 50 years in the future with a confidence of +/- one year. Then what?
Should say "new study says we DON'T UNDERSTAND A LOT OF THINGS we THINK we know about Earth".
Comment removed based on user account deletion
No, this means that what's under Antarctica probably won't erupt soon - but that has nothing to do with it being hot enough to melt ice.
Suppose we somehow find a way to precisely predict the eruption of a super volcano. Imagine it is the one underneath Yellowstone. When that thing lets lose it is predicted that only the southern tip of Florida and the area of Maine near the Canadian border would survive. So our whiz bang prediction tells us that in 60 years the land mass of the US will be 98% destroyed, along with wildlife and structures as well. Instantly the world economy goes into panic and crash mode. All properties in the doomed region become worthless and millions upon millions rush to escape. In essence all hell would break lose and the horror might be worse than if the public was never informed and the event took place and exterminated 98% of America. The nature of super volcanoes is such that accurate prediction means very little unless we develop some way to prevent or lessen the eventual explosion. Simply knowing it will happen may only make things worse. And right this minute we have a situation that is quite similar. The Arab emirates that compose five nations will have to be evacuated prior to 2025 as warming in that area will be so severe that the land can not support human life nor can things like air conditioning save the day. So we have the hundreds of billions in investments that will be lost but also will certainly see wars as well as all of the residents of these five nations are going to be forced to try to move into other nations. Due to the terrorists doctrines that exist among some of these Arab folks I seriously doubt that other nations will want to absorb them as they migrate to avoid certain death.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
His name is Chris
Steps outside, ground collapses
He is a fat man
Regarding the second AC the sun since around 2006 has shown its lowest activity level in the past 100 years. Yet there is no indication of cooling as a result of it.
Not the same AC and not a denier of AGW, but there was the infamous "pause" in global temperature increase that is not yet explained and did happen during the solar minimum superposition between the typical decades-long cycle and longer cycles that you are eluding to.
The real problem many have with global warming is that the models really aren't any good. The specific predictions made are repeatedly proven wrong while the general predictions have such huge uncertainty bars that a coin toss is nearly as robust.
I remember studying this during a return to college in 2010 when the leading scientists and models made claims that Micronesia would be underwater, vast desertification would cause futures markets to collapse and there would be 40 million climate change refugees by 2015. None of that happened. At a stretch we could say that 2 million refugees from the middle east and north African wars by 2017 were due to climate change, but that's really pushing it.
If people were to stop claiming or insinuating that scientists know everything, or even have a "coherent idea" about the most complex system that impacts humans on a daily level when they clearly do not, there would be fewer deniers.
That's article is not about the San Andreas, it's about another fault system.
Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
But wasn't Yellowstone heated at the point of the last eruption by the hot spot that is slowly moving away but definitely still there? Or are hot spots periodic in their upper crust penetration as well, along some kind of thermal circulation in the mantle? Would the reversing of the magnetic poles tell something about the processes that also contribute to the effects of the hot spots? Questions, questions.
If prices are "right", the risk is priced in, and after TBO, prices will be higher because the risk is no longer high.
Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
Comment removed based on user account deletion
You're surprised that people don't understand something they've never seen?
Are you equally surprised that they're willing to make careers talking about things they've never seen and don't understand?
...to understand supervolcanoes. The first thing is to recognize that the supervolcano doesn't want you to SOLVE its problems, it wants you to HEAR its problems.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Chris' case is getting worse, he spends all day replying to himself as AC on /.
The tests we ran on Chris have shown that Chris has the intelligence of an ameba:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
So, technically, he is able to conceive some kind of agenda but it will be silly or impossible to follow on a human scale.
For example, Chris had an agenda to post anything he felt like on Slashdot which did not work well because it was based on his false beliefs that he had an infinite number of karma points as he wrote here several times.
Several people here explained to Chris that karma maxed out at some level like 50 or so but Chris kept on insisting that his python script had confirmed that he had millions of karma points!
Oh well, as I wrote before: "It isn't Chris' fault if he is the way he is. We do the best we can do with him and he is partially integrated into society. We try to cure his abnormal need for attention but he is kind of stubborn and won't listen to anybody."
For the valuable /. users that might already have read the following, please note that there is an important update.
IMPORTANT UPDATE:
Special Education for the Santa Clara County Office of Education has invested money to buy Chris a new chair:
http://www.keynamics.com/image...
Information about Christopher Dale Reimer and autistic people:
Autistic people have obsessions about things normal people don't care. For example, one of our autistic patient went haywire when he realized that there was a penny missing in his pocket change.
To calm him down, one of our educator pretended to have found it on the floor and gave a penny to him.
The autistic patient condition went even worse because he realized it wasn't the same penny!
Chris has an obsession with budgeting every penny. He doesn't understand that most people do not budget to the penny and have a flexible amount they allow for miscellaneous items.
I am Nancy Guerrero and I am Director of Special Education for the Santa Clara County Office of Education. We use Chris' (a.k.a. creimer,cdreimer) picture in our document because he is the hardest case we have ever had to handle:
http://www.sccoe.org/depts/stu...
Our artists were inspired by the low carb diet that Christopher follows scrupulously for the small lunch box and by the picture linked below for the rest. I am sure that you will notice the similarities such as the bump on the side of his chest and more:
https://ibb.co/gVad65
Please be easy on Christopher although, I am aware that some of our staff handling Chris post joke comments here and obvoiusly, the Santa Clara County Office of Education disapprove that behavior vehemently:
https://school.discoveryeducat...
But it isn't Chris' fault if he is the way he is. We do the best we can do with him and he is partially integrated into society. We try to cure his abnormal need for attention but he is kind of stubborn and won't listen to anybody.
Thank You dear users,
---
Nancy Guerrero
Director
Special Education
Santa Clara County Office of Education
Thanks Nancy,
Your posts are always enlightening and right on topic! Keep up the good work over there at Special Education!
Also, I have noted that Chris uses child psychology to convince his so called trolls to give up by pretending they just give him free publicity. That's adoring! ;-)
---
Silvia Bunge
Psychology Department
University of California, Berkeley
According to this study...
you illiterate ameba!
If prices are "right", the risk is priced in, and after TBO, prices will be higher because the risk is no longer high.
The interesting thing about a fault line which has just had a major shift is that it can immediately have another major shift.
P.S. Lightning often strikes the same place multiple times.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
I figured someone might come back to me with the so called "pause". The problem with that is while the rise in atmospheric temperatures may have slowed down to a statistically insignificant degree the oceans where over 90 percent of the warming occurs continued to warm during that time. There was no real pause, just a small change in the distribution of heat in the system.
The real problem many have with global warming is that the models really aren't any good. The specific predictions made are repeatedly proven wrong while the general predictions have such huge uncertainty bars that a coin toss is nearly as robust.
Did you see the post a couple of days ago about how two scientists accurately predicted global warming in 1967? I would suggest that you don't really understand what climate models are capable of and your criteria for judging them are wrong. They're not meant to predict temperatures on short time scales of a decade or so but rather the evolution of temperature over longer time time periods like 30 years or more. On shorter time scales the noise of natural variations like the aforementioned low solar output, volcanic effects and the timing of the ENSO cycles is enough to overwhelm the global warming signal.
I remember studying this during a return to college in 2010 when the leading scientists and models made claims that Micronesia would be underwater, vast desertification would cause futures markets to collapse and there would be 40 million climate change refugees by 2015. None of that happened. At a stretch we could say that 2 million refugees from the middle east and north African wars by 2017 were due to climate change, but that's really pushing it.
2010 is only 7 years ago. I'd be really surprised if you point to statements by leading scientists that Micronesia would be underwater or desertification would have proceeded so far in just 7 short years. You need to pay more attention to the time scales they put on such predictions.
Regarding refugees I believe the wording was "up to 40 million refugees". That's more like putting a cap on the total number of refugees expected. And the distinction of who is a climate change refugee can be subtle. For instance are the Inuit in Alaska who are forced to move their village a few miles inland climate refugees? Same thing on south Pacific islands where villages are being abandoned because of the encroaching seas.
Yes, climate science is a complex subject and scientists don't know everything. There will be surprises along the way like the melting of Arctic sea ice affecting the jet stream bringing causing it to meander more causing weather systems to stall over places causing longer heat waves and more precipitation. But as the 1967 predictions mentioned above show the scientists are basically on the right track and the information they provide is far better than any coin toss would provide.
Not convincing deflections, straw man, thinly veiled ad hominem, and red herring responses.
You even contradicted yourself a few times. Your words and actions are all just so inspiring to denialists and offputting to people that actually read academic papers and follow actual AGW scientists instead of popsci like that story from a few days ago.
Sheesh! The story from a few days ago was based on actual research published in 1967. I've been aware of the 1967 paper from Manabe and Wetherald for close to two decades. Nothing popsci about it.
"previously obscured" clues about how super-hot molten lava behaves
Lava is on the surface, so I think this is about magma. Also all lava is hot and molten.
"A new view is that magma is stored for a long period in a state that is locked, cool, crystalline
Wouldn't that be referred to as "rock" and not "magma"?
Technically, the second AC is correct: the Sun indeed causes global warming. Without it, we'd have frozen. Unfortunately, that information on its own is nigh useless.
Ezekiel 23:20
Technically that is true. The sun is responsible for over 99% of the energy on the Earth's surface. But since the sun's output hasn't changed enough to account for the actual warming we've seen there must be other factors that help hold the sun's energy on the Earth such as an increase in greenhouse gases. AC was implying it was because the sun was at a high level of output.
That's not what NASA said though.
I figured someone might come back to me with the so called "pause". The problem with that is while the rise in atmospheric temperatures may have slowed down to a statistically insignificant degree the oceans where over 90 percent of the warming occurs continued to warm during that time. There was no real pause, just a small change in the distribution of heat in the system.
Your grossly overstating the state of climate science. The baseline of climate knowledge that is irrefutably known so far as modelling goes includes:
-More energy trapped in the system will overall increase temperature in the system
-On a decadal average, more energy is trapped in earth's atmosphere than leaves it as directly measured by satellite for the last 30ish years.
-With less certainty, indirect air and ocean temperature records suggest that trend has been the case longer still, around 100 years.
-With the enormous caveat of all other things being equal, we know increasing CO2 concentrations will increase energy capture via the greenhouse effect.
-We know we've been contributing to a steady rise in CO2 cocentrations
-The link between the increased energy capture and CO2 rise seems pretty air tight
Now, that tells us a lot, but it doesn't mean our climate models are necessarily ready for decadal or centennial predictive power. As you suggest, predicting global annual temperatures isn't the best measure of a model. It's a big part of why the failure to predict the pause across virtually 100% of all climate models was problematic, not catastrophic. Models are meant to give us more what the next 30,100,300 years might look like. To do that, they don't so much need to predict the temperature accurately, but instead the energy imabalance over time off how much Earth is gaining/losing year on year.
Now, the part you seem to have not looked at is how well our climate models simulate/predict the energy balance for earth. Here's the IPCC 5th assessment comment on exactly that:
For instance, maintaining the global mean top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy balance in a simulation of pre-industrial climate is essential to prevent the climate system from drifting to an unrealistic state. The models used in this report almost universally contain adjustments to parameters in their treatment of clouds to fulfil this important constraint of the climate system (Watanabe et al., 2010; Donner et al., 2011; Gent et al., 2011; Golaz et al., 2011; Martin et al., 2011; Hazeleger et al., 2012; Mauritsen et al., 2012; Hourdin et al., 2013)
That's from the IPCC 5th Assessment chapter 9, you should read through it with a skeptical mind. What that is saying is that clouds are sufficiently poorly modelled that unless modellers tune them by hand, the model energy imbalance is so off the models drift to an unrealistic state. This is still a universal limitation.
Long story short we know lots, but there is also still lots we don't know. More pointedly, if models can't predict the energy imbalance, they aren't ready to make predictions at all in any meaningful way as that energy imbalance IS the key to the impact of human CO2 emissions.
On a geologic time scale, changes in solar flux actually nicely explain the extremely high CO2 concentrations in the distant past without corresponding extremely high temperatures. So at least the topic is suitable for educating the misinformed on actual science. But yes, we don't have to bother with it on a timescale of centuries.
Ezekiel 23:20
...to those who don't have to do it!
"immediately have another"
Good thing 15-day close is about as fast as you can buy a house these days :-)
Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/